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The Challenges of a Rapidly 
Changing Local Marketplace 
Munich SIINDA 2014 
Greg Sterling 
© 2013 xAd, Inc │ Confidential and Proprietary │ Do Not Distribute
Who Am I? 
• Local Search Association (“Strategy & Insights”) 
• Impact of digital media on offline/local 
consumer behavior 
• Digital advertising and marketing 
• Twitter: @gsterling
Trends Overview 
• Apps dominate: More time being spent “in apps” than PC 
• Multi-channel media: Now in a complex, “multi-channel” 
environment 
• Blurring of online, offline: offline sales dominate but online, 
offline blurring 
• Mobile payments: Offline transactions increasingly 
happening via mobile payments (apps) 
• New uses of location and offline data: New data being 
unlocked by offline mobile patterns 
• Privacy: a challenging issue/concern for all 
• Sales, publishers, merchants challenged: marketers, media 
companies challenged
Mobile Still the Story 
MOBILE DEVICE ADOPTION 
Smartphones: 
• 72% penetration in US 
• 55% to 70% in EU5 markets 
• 90% penetration by end of 2016 (US) 
projected 
Source: comScore, Nielsen 2014 
(location evolving)
Android: Dominant Global OS 
• Android on more than 3X devices vs. Microsoft 
• Nearly as many Apple devices as Windows machines 
Source: Gartner 2014
Traffic Comparison (Europe) 
70% 21% + 9% 
• UK: Mobile is 38% of traffic 
• Spain: Mobile is 37% of traffic 
Source: StatCounter, September 2014
KaufDA: 80% Mobile 
Source: Company CEO Christian Gaiser
Mobile vs. PC Time (US) 
40% 60%* 
• *Apps claim majority of digital media time: 52% 
• Time with apps growing but not number of apps used 
(roughly 27 apps used per month on average – but most 
time spend with far fewer) 
Source: comScore, Nielsen August 2014
Top Apps by Audience Reach (US) 
• A few apps dominate usage 
• In some developing markets 
Facebook (and WhatsApp) “are the 
internet” 
• Global mobile ad revenues €14.6 
Billion ($19.3 billion) in 2013 could 
double in 2014 
• 8 US companies control 80% of 
worldwide mobile ad revenue 
Source: comScore, June 2014; IAB, August 2014; eMarketer, July 2014, Xyo.net
‘Unbundling’ (Fragmentation) 
• Unbundling of 3,000+ headings (oppty to do it better) 
• “Horizontal” usage consolidation among a few top sites/apps 
• Lots of specialization and “point solutions” at the bottom 
• Partly a competitive response to big players
Mobile Ad Revenue 
FY 2013 revs: 
• Total: $50.5B 
• Mobile: $9B 
(approx.) 
• 18% 
1H 2014 ad revs: 
• Total: $4.9B 
• Mobile: $3.02B 
• 61% 
1H 2014 ad revs: 
• Total: $503M 
• Mobile: $405M 
• 80.5% 
Source: company reports, Greg Sterling estimates
Source: IAB, IHS August 2014 
Mobile Ad Formats
Europe’s ‘Mobile Search’ Market 
Source: StatCounter, September 2014 
Google controls 95% of 
browser-based mobile 
search in Europe, 
slightly less in US
From ‘Search’ to ‘Discovery’ 
Foursquare Google Maps “Explore” 
• Web search and search results less relevant to mobile users 
• Context, location, time, history, social network data, offline behavior 
enable “anticipatory search,” personalized recommendations (e.g., 
Google Now)
From ‘Search’ to ‘Assistant’ 
• From “search engine” to 
“personal assistant” 
• Driven by device/user 
constraints, data available 
• Google’s antitrust critics 
accuse Google of “diverting” 
traffic to Google vertical 
results . . . But: 
• Google trying to provide 
“answers,” more value to 
remain relevant in mobile-app 
dominated environment 
• Also trying to index “deep links” in 
apps to encourage usage
Cross-Device Movement 
Source: Google-IPSOS Q2 2013, n=1,600 US adults 
• 90% of multi-device owners 
use different screens 
sequentially; 98% of activity 
happens within a single day 
• “Smartphones are the 
backbone of daily media use 
. . . devices used most 
throughout the day ....” 
• Makes attribution, reaching 
audiences more challenging
New Attribution Tactics 
• Smartphones are always 
somewhere in time and space 
• Reveal patterns, preferences 
and behaviors of their owners 
• Make possible new types of 
metrics and online-to-offline 
tracking 
• All major internet companies 
seeking to provide offline/local 
conversion data to advertisers
Location Is the New Cookie 
Segment groups of people based on their real-world 
movement and shopping patterns: 
“business travelers,” “auto intenders” “sports enthusiasts” 
or “people who live in post code XYZ and watch Game of 
Thrones” 
• Audience identification/targeting 
• Retargeting 
• Targeting + geofencing (e.g., serving 
ad with coupon to QSR regulars within 
2 km of a Subway)
Not Going to Discuss Privacy
Blurring the Lines 
E-commerce and app-based payments for offline 
experiences and services
Future Channels, Platforms? 
How will these new “channels” 
and “platforms” affect digital 
and location based marketing?
Big Brands Scrambling to React 
• Fewer than 10% of 
marketers/brands are executing 
cross-channel campaigns 
• In 2013 80% of Fortune 500 didn’t 
have a mobile-optimized site 
• As of Q2 2013 Just 6% of top 100 
Fortune 500 companies have 
sites that comply with Google's 
mobile requirements 
Source: e-consultancy-Oracle, 2014; iMomentus, 2013; Google 2013
Single-coded question 
SMBs Uncertain 
Do you believe mobile marketing is a ‘must have’ or a ‘nice to have’? 
21% 
57% 
77% doubtful re value 
of mobile marketing 
22% 
Must have A nice to have Don’t know 
Base: SMB survey by Greg Sterling/Opus Research (2013), n=1,255 small business owners/decision makers
Not All SMBs Want to Grow 
Single-coded question 
Which of the following statements best describes your company’s appetite to 
grow the business over the next few years? 
8% 
19% 
38% 
34% 
1% 
We are not looking to grow, 
we're having trouble keeping 
up with the demand as it is 
We are content with our 
current size 
We would like to grow the 
business a little 
We would like to grow the 
business significantly 
Other 
Base: SMB survey by Greg Sterling/Opus Research (2013), n=1,255 small business owners/decision makers
Growth vs. Status Quo SMBs 
Please select which statement most closely matches your ‘state of mind’ when it 
comes to marketing your business? 
13% 
I value the benefits that marketing can bring 
and believe its an important investment to 
make 
The majority of my cusomer base is via word 
of mouth so I cant see how marketing will 
support me further 
Base: Firms with an appetite to grow (732), Firms with no appetite to grow (278) 
33% 
12% 
21% 
15% 
37% 
When done correctly, marketing can bring a 
lot of success to my business - but it's hard for 
me to always "get it right" 
Appetite to 
grow 
No appeite 
to grow
SMB Budgets Under $5K (3,8K EUR) 
Single-coded question 
28% 
9% 
7% 
3% 3% 4% 
46% 
$1 to $1,000 
$1001 to $2,500 
$2,501 to $5,000 
$5,001 to $10,000 
$10,001 to $20,000 
Base: SMB survey by Greg Sterling/Opus Research (2013), n=1,255 small business owners/decision makers
Marketing Challenges: Not Enough… 
Source: Thrive Analytics-LSA, 2014 
1. Time 
2. Budget 
3. Expertise 
4. Internal 
resources/personnel
Multi-coded question 
What are some of the common frustrations you experience with marketing your business? 
6% 
5% 
18% 
18% 
28% 
26% 
38% 
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 
Its expensive for what you get 
I don’t have a clear measure of what return on investment 
I get from marketing 
Because its not my expertise, its hard to judge what's good 
quality marketing 
There are too many choices of marketing channels 
None of these 
I have to work with too many vendors for different 
marketing services 
Other 
Others include: lack 
of time and lack of 
money 
Marketing Frustrations 
Base: SMB survey by Greg Sterling/Opus Research (2013), n=1,255 small business owners/decision makers
ROI Understanding a Problem 
Multi-coded question 
Which of the following do you use to measure the return on investment (ROI) of your marketing? 
4% 
4% 
10% 
25% 
21% 
21% 
18% 
23% 
35% 
39% 
46% 
50% 
Repeat business 
Sales 
Ask our customers how they found us 
Number of incoming customer calls 
Likes on Facebook/Twitter followers 
Foot traffic to your store 
Average size of sales 
Number of clicks through to your website from interney… 
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 
Number of qualified sales leads 
Data from analytics dashboard 
PR/Newspaper coverage 
Number of mobile application downloads 
Base: SMB survey by Greg Sterling/Opus Research (2013), n=1,255 small business owners/decision makers
Single-coded question 
Better Websites + Help 
If you had a significant increase in budget tomorrow, what ONE activity would you choose to 
spend that money on? 
20% 
11% 
8% 
7% 
7% 
2% 2% 
6% 
3% 
5% 
4% 
4% 
5% 
4% 
3% 
3% 
3% 
2% Company webiste 
Full time marketing resource 
Direct marketing 
Paid search advertising 
TV advertising 
Social Media 
Search Engine Optimisation (SEO) 
Online display advertising 
Print Newspapers 
Leaflets/Flyers 
Coupons/promotional 
Mobile site or app 
Yellow Pages 
Outdoor/Billboards 
Radio 
Blogs 
Magazines 
Online reviews 
Base: SMB survey by Greg Sterling/Opus Research (2013), n=1,255 small business owners/decision makers
Single-coded question What Do They (Really) Want? 
Thinking about the number of marketing vendors that you prefer to work with, please select 
from the list below which statement best describes your preference. 
• Would prefer to do all 
marketing in house 
• Would prefer to work 
with single 
source/vendor 
• Use multiple, specialist 
vendors 
40% 
48% 
6% 
Base: SMB survey by Greg Sterling/Opus Research (2013), n=1,255 small business owners/decision makers
What the SMB Needs 
• A trusted advisor who can build an 
affordable, customized customer 
acquisition/retention program that 
delivers results 
• Problem: publisher/channel wants to 
deliver templated, scalable solution; 
may be biased toward favored 
products and not be good at 
fulfillment 
• One model is financial services: SMB 
hands over budget, “sales advisor” 
distributes that budget across various 
channels and delivers periodic reports
Same Pitch, Same Products 
Up to five calls per week 
Many similar claims and pitches 
creates skepticism/confusion: 
• “Your one-stop shop” 
• “Your digital agency” 
• Lengthy menu of “products” 
• Some: unethical or false claims 
No transparency; digital churn 
still very high
Preferred Contact Methods, Info 
Source: Thrive Analytics, LSA, 2014
Going Vertical One Response 
• Educate sales to “speak the 
language of the customer” 
• Enables specialized services, 
more efficiency 
• Development of targeted 
consumer products and 
“marketplaces” 
• “Templated,” perfunctory 
approaches won’t work
Operational Services+ 
• Deliver key services: payments, order processing, CRM, scheduling, 
invoicing, field services management 
• Combine services and marketing for more (obvious) ROI/value, 
diversified revenue and better retention 
• Examples: Square, Swipely, HomeAdvisor, DemandForce, Groupon, 
OpenTable, others 
• Square: started as a simple way to accept credit cards. Now offers: 
- Card processing 
- E-commerce marketplace 
- Complete POS system 
- Analytics 
- Loans 
- Scheduling 
- Invoicing 
- Customer feedback mechanisms
It’s All about Execution 
Discussion is 
easy. 
Execution is 
an uphill 
battle.
Questions 
Greg Sterling 
gsterling@localsa.org 
Twitter: @gsterling

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The Challenges of a Rapidly Changing Local Marketplace

  • 1. The Challenges of a Rapidly Changing Local Marketplace Munich SIINDA 2014 Greg Sterling © 2013 xAd, Inc │ Confidential and Proprietary │ Do Not Distribute
  • 2. Who Am I? • Local Search Association (“Strategy & Insights”) • Impact of digital media on offline/local consumer behavior • Digital advertising and marketing • Twitter: @gsterling
  • 3. Trends Overview • Apps dominate: More time being spent “in apps” than PC • Multi-channel media: Now in a complex, “multi-channel” environment • Blurring of online, offline: offline sales dominate but online, offline blurring • Mobile payments: Offline transactions increasingly happening via mobile payments (apps) • New uses of location and offline data: New data being unlocked by offline mobile patterns • Privacy: a challenging issue/concern for all • Sales, publishers, merchants challenged: marketers, media companies challenged
  • 4. Mobile Still the Story MOBILE DEVICE ADOPTION Smartphones: • 72% penetration in US • 55% to 70% in EU5 markets • 90% penetration by end of 2016 (US) projected Source: comScore, Nielsen 2014 (location evolving)
  • 5. Android: Dominant Global OS • Android on more than 3X devices vs. Microsoft • Nearly as many Apple devices as Windows machines Source: Gartner 2014
  • 6. Traffic Comparison (Europe) 70% 21% + 9% • UK: Mobile is 38% of traffic • Spain: Mobile is 37% of traffic Source: StatCounter, September 2014
  • 7. KaufDA: 80% Mobile Source: Company CEO Christian Gaiser
  • 8. Mobile vs. PC Time (US) 40% 60%* • *Apps claim majority of digital media time: 52% • Time with apps growing but not number of apps used (roughly 27 apps used per month on average – but most time spend with far fewer) Source: comScore, Nielsen August 2014
  • 9. Top Apps by Audience Reach (US) • A few apps dominate usage • In some developing markets Facebook (and WhatsApp) “are the internet” • Global mobile ad revenues €14.6 Billion ($19.3 billion) in 2013 could double in 2014 • 8 US companies control 80% of worldwide mobile ad revenue Source: comScore, June 2014; IAB, August 2014; eMarketer, July 2014, Xyo.net
  • 10. ‘Unbundling’ (Fragmentation) • Unbundling of 3,000+ headings (oppty to do it better) • “Horizontal” usage consolidation among a few top sites/apps • Lots of specialization and “point solutions” at the bottom • Partly a competitive response to big players
  • 11. Mobile Ad Revenue FY 2013 revs: • Total: $50.5B • Mobile: $9B (approx.) • 18% 1H 2014 ad revs: • Total: $4.9B • Mobile: $3.02B • 61% 1H 2014 ad revs: • Total: $503M • Mobile: $405M • 80.5% Source: company reports, Greg Sterling estimates
  • 12. Source: IAB, IHS August 2014 Mobile Ad Formats
  • 13. Europe’s ‘Mobile Search’ Market Source: StatCounter, September 2014 Google controls 95% of browser-based mobile search in Europe, slightly less in US
  • 14. From ‘Search’ to ‘Discovery’ Foursquare Google Maps “Explore” • Web search and search results less relevant to mobile users • Context, location, time, history, social network data, offline behavior enable “anticipatory search,” personalized recommendations (e.g., Google Now)
  • 15. From ‘Search’ to ‘Assistant’ • From “search engine” to “personal assistant” • Driven by device/user constraints, data available • Google’s antitrust critics accuse Google of “diverting” traffic to Google vertical results . . . But: • Google trying to provide “answers,” more value to remain relevant in mobile-app dominated environment • Also trying to index “deep links” in apps to encourage usage
  • 16. Cross-Device Movement Source: Google-IPSOS Q2 2013, n=1,600 US adults • 90% of multi-device owners use different screens sequentially; 98% of activity happens within a single day • “Smartphones are the backbone of daily media use . . . devices used most throughout the day ....” • Makes attribution, reaching audiences more challenging
  • 17. New Attribution Tactics • Smartphones are always somewhere in time and space • Reveal patterns, preferences and behaviors of their owners • Make possible new types of metrics and online-to-offline tracking • All major internet companies seeking to provide offline/local conversion data to advertisers
  • 18. Location Is the New Cookie Segment groups of people based on their real-world movement and shopping patterns: “business travelers,” “auto intenders” “sports enthusiasts” or “people who live in post code XYZ and watch Game of Thrones” • Audience identification/targeting • Retargeting • Targeting + geofencing (e.g., serving ad with coupon to QSR regulars within 2 km of a Subway)
  • 19. Not Going to Discuss Privacy
  • 20. Blurring the Lines E-commerce and app-based payments for offline experiences and services
  • 21. Future Channels, Platforms? How will these new “channels” and “platforms” affect digital and location based marketing?
  • 22. Big Brands Scrambling to React • Fewer than 10% of marketers/brands are executing cross-channel campaigns • In 2013 80% of Fortune 500 didn’t have a mobile-optimized site • As of Q2 2013 Just 6% of top 100 Fortune 500 companies have sites that comply with Google's mobile requirements Source: e-consultancy-Oracle, 2014; iMomentus, 2013; Google 2013
  • 23. Single-coded question SMBs Uncertain Do you believe mobile marketing is a ‘must have’ or a ‘nice to have’? 21% 57% 77% doubtful re value of mobile marketing 22% Must have A nice to have Don’t know Base: SMB survey by Greg Sterling/Opus Research (2013), n=1,255 small business owners/decision makers
  • 24. Not All SMBs Want to Grow Single-coded question Which of the following statements best describes your company’s appetite to grow the business over the next few years? 8% 19% 38% 34% 1% We are not looking to grow, we're having trouble keeping up with the demand as it is We are content with our current size We would like to grow the business a little We would like to grow the business significantly Other Base: SMB survey by Greg Sterling/Opus Research (2013), n=1,255 small business owners/decision makers
  • 25. Growth vs. Status Quo SMBs Please select which statement most closely matches your ‘state of mind’ when it comes to marketing your business? 13% I value the benefits that marketing can bring and believe its an important investment to make The majority of my cusomer base is via word of mouth so I cant see how marketing will support me further Base: Firms with an appetite to grow (732), Firms with no appetite to grow (278) 33% 12% 21% 15% 37% When done correctly, marketing can bring a lot of success to my business - but it's hard for me to always "get it right" Appetite to grow No appeite to grow
  • 26. SMB Budgets Under $5K (3,8K EUR) Single-coded question 28% 9% 7% 3% 3% 4% 46% $1 to $1,000 $1001 to $2,500 $2,501 to $5,000 $5,001 to $10,000 $10,001 to $20,000 Base: SMB survey by Greg Sterling/Opus Research (2013), n=1,255 small business owners/decision makers
  • 27. Marketing Challenges: Not Enough… Source: Thrive Analytics-LSA, 2014 1. Time 2. Budget 3. Expertise 4. Internal resources/personnel
  • 28. Multi-coded question What are some of the common frustrations you experience with marketing your business? 6% 5% 18% 18% 28% 26% 38% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Its expensive for what you get I don’t have a clear measure of what return on investment I get from marketing Because its not my expertise, its hard to judge what's good quality marketing There are too many choices of marketing channels None of these I have to work with too many vendors for different marketing services Other Others include: lack of time and lack of money Marketing Frustrations Base: SMB survey by Greg Sterling/Opus Research (2013), n=1,255 small business owners/decision makers
  • 29. ROI Understanding a Problem Multi-coded question Which of the following do you use to measure the return on investment (ROI) of your marketing? 4% 4% 10% 25% 21% 21% 18% 23% 35% 39% 46% 50% Repeat business Sales Ask our customers how they found us Number of incoming customer calls Likes on Facebook/Twitter followers Foot traffic to your store Average size of sales Number of clicks through to your website from interney… 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Number of qualified sales leads Data from analytics dashboard PR/Newspaper coverage Number of mobile application downloads Base: SMB survey by Greg Sterling/Opus Research (2013), n=1,255 small business owners/decision makers
  • 30. Single-coded question Better Websites + Help If you had a significant increase in budget tomorrow, what ONE activity would you choose to spend that money on? 20% 11% 8% 7% 7% 2% 2% 6% 3% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% Company webiste Full time marketing resource Direct marketing Paid search advertising TV advertising Social Media Search Engine Optimisation (SEO) Online display advertising Print Newspapers Leaflets/Flyers Coupons/promotional Mobile site or app Yellow Pages Outdoor/Billboards Radio Blogs Magazines Online reviews Base: SMB survey by Greg Sterling/Opus Research (2013), n=1,255 small business owners/decision makers
  • 31. Single-coded question What Do They (Really) Want? Thinking about the number of marketing vendors that you prefer to work with, please select from the list below which statement best describes your preference. • Would prefer to do all marketing in house • Would prefer to work with single source/vendor • Use multiple, specialist vendors 40% 48% 6% Base: SMB survey by Greg Sterling/Opus Research (2013), n=1,255 small business owners/decision makers
  • 32. What the SMB Needs • A trusted advisor who can build an affordable, customized customer acquisition/retention program that delivers results • Problem: publisher/channel wants to deliver templated, scalable solution; may be biased toward favored products and not be good at fulfillment • One model is financial services: SMB hands over budget, “sales advisor” distributes that budget across various channels and delivers periodic reports
  • 33. Same Pitch, Same Products Up to five calls per week Many similar claims and pitches creates skepticism/confusion: • “Your one-stop shop” • “Your digital agency” • Lengthy menu of “products” • Some: unethical or false claims No transparency; digital churn still very high
  • 34. Preferred Contact Methods, Info Source: Thrive Analytics, LSA, 2014
  • 35. Going Vertical One Response • Educate sales to “speak the language of the customer” • Enables specialized services, more efficiency • Development of targeted consumer products and “marketplaces” • “Templated,” perfunctory approaches won’t work
  • 36. Operational Services+ • Deliver key services: payments, order processing, CRM, scheduling, invoicing, field services management • Combine services and marketing for more (obvious) ROI/value, diversified revenue and better retention • Examples: Square, Swipely, HomeAdvisor, DemandForce, Groupon, OpenTable, others • Square: started as a simple way to accept credit cards. Now offers: - Card processing - E-commerce marketplace - Complete POS system - Analytics - Loans - Scheduling - Invoicing - Customer feedback mechanisms
  • 37. It’s All about Execution Discussion is easy. Execution is an uphill battle.
  • 38. Questions Greg Sterling gsterling@localsa.org Twitter: @gsterling