I Robot. You Unemployed

1. II RRoobboott,,
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Robin Hanson
George Mason University

2. Economics of Robots
• Staple of fiction – ancient legends to TV now
• If have more of X, do you want Y more
(complement) or less (substitute)?
• Machine as Substitute to human labor
– Ricardo 1821, most science fiction
– Wages fall to machine cost
• Automation as Complement to human labor
– Wicksell 1923, modern economics consensus
– Wages have risen as automation cost have fallen
• So are robots a substitute or complement?

3. Robots Substitute On Task,
But Tasks Are Complements
Human Advantage
Substitute
For Task
Useful Mental Tasks
Humans
Do These
Machines
Do These
Tasks Are
Complements

4. A Rising Tide
Human Advantage
Useful Mental Tasks

5. A Rising Tide
Human Advantage
Useful Mental Tasks

6. RRoobboott Implications
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7. Labor Supply & Demand
Quantity
Price
wage1
Supply of Human Workers
Demand
for Labor
wage3
wage2
New
Demand
for Labor
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8. Guestimating Growth
1. AK growth models easily x10-1000+ faster
– Now double ~15 yr., 100x => 1.8 mo.
1. Factories now double mass in 1-3 mo.
1.3D printers in week?
– Self-replicate plans double in 6-12 mo.?
1. History of forager, farmer, industry modes
– Doubled 225Myr, 900yr, 15yr => 1-4 weeks
• Guess: ~1 month doubling time

9. Ways To Make Smart Robots
1. Keep writing better software
– AI experts say: in 20yrs gone 5-10% to human
– That says: will take 2-4 centuries to full AI
– Hardware slowing, if half rate, 4-8 centuries
1. Discover a grand theory of intelligence
– Or grand theory of how to learn (= “foom”)
– But likely doesn’t exist, as w/ bacteria, cities
1. Port software from where it already exists

10. Four Ways To Grow

11. 1. More Machines

12. 2. More Humans

13. 3. Better Machines

14. 4. More Robots

15. Needed To Emulate Brains
1
Computers
(many, parallel)
2
Scan – fix, slice,
2D scan
3
Model each brain cell type

16. Book Draft Topics
Motivation, Method, Biases,
Precedents, Factors,
Dreamtime, Limits, Emulations,
Opacity, Hardware, Security,
Time, Space, Reversing,
Climate, Cooling, Buildings,
Virtuality, Overlays, Fakery,
Copying, Darkness, Fragility,
Retirement, Death, Wages,
Selection, Enough,
Competition, Eliteness, Spurs,
Power, Institutions, Growth,
Finance, Manufacturing,
Careers, Age, Prepare, Train,
Cities, Speeds, Transport,
Software, Inequality, War,
Clans, Nepotism, Firms,
Teams, Governance, Law,
Innovation, Mating, Signaling,
Identity, Ritual, Conversation,
Synchronization, Coalitions,
Profanity, Divisions, Culture,
Stories, Humans, Unhumans,
Intelligence, Psychology,
Alternatives, Transition,
Critics, Evaluation, Policy,
Charity, Success