1. Demography, Economics, or Policy:
What Drives the Employment Rates of
People with Disabilities (PWD)?
Lauren Gilbert, MPP (Georgetown, 2016)
SSA DRC 2016 Summer Fellow
Washington D.C.
August 8, 2016

2. Problem: Employment Gap Between PWD and
People Without Disabilities is Too Large
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
U.S. Employment Rates of People with and without Disabilities
Ages 18-64, 2008-2014
PWD People without Disabilities
Based on data from
disabilitystatistics.org

3. States Vary Widely in Their
Employment Rates for PWD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
All States + DC & PR
State Employment Rates for PWD Ages 18-64 in the Community in
Percentage Points, 2014
Median to Q3
Q1 to Median
Based on data from Table 2.1 of
the Disability Statistics
Compendium

4. What contributes to the
variation?

5. ● Examples: disability prevalence, prevalence
of specific subgroups of disability, age
distribution
● Different employment outcomes depending
on demographic subgroups (Yin & Shaewitz
2015; Schur et al. 2013; Fogg et al. 2010,
2011; GAO 2007)
Demographics

6. Wide Variation Between States in
Prevalence of Different Disabilities
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Auditory Visual Cognitive Ambulatory Self-Care Independent
Living
State Variation in Disability Subtype Prevalence in Population of
Non-institutionalized PWD Ages 18-64 in Percentage Points, 2014
Median to Q3
Q1 to Median
Based on data from Tables
1.10, 1.14, 1.17, 1.20, 1.23,
and 1.25 of the Disability
Statistics Compendium

7. Wide Variation in Employment Rates
of People with Different Disabilities
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Auditory Visual Cognitive Ambulatory Self-Care Independent
Living
State Employment Rates of Non-Institutionalized PWD Ages 18-64
by Disability Category in Percentage Points, 2014
Median to Q3
Q1 to Median
Based on data from Tables 2.3 – 2.8
of the Disability Statistics
Compendium

8. Wide Variation Between States in
Prevalence of Different Disabilities
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Auditory Visual Cognitive Ambulatory Self-Care Independent
Living
State Variation in Disability Subtype Prevalence in Population of
Non-institutionalized PWD Ages 18-64 in Percentage Points, 2014
Median to Q3
Q1 to Median
Based on data from Tables
1.10, 1.14, 1.17, 1.20, 1.23,
and 1.25 of the Disability
Statistics Compendium

9. Wide Variation in Employment Rates
of People with Different Disabilities
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Auditory Visual Cognitive Ambulatory Self-Care Independent
Living
State Employment Rates of Non-Institutionalized PWD Ages 18-64
by Disability Category in Percentage Points, 2014
Median to Q3
Q1 to Median
Based on data from Tables 2.3 – 2.8
of the Disability Statistics
Compendium

10. State Economics
● Examples: State-level employment rates, per
capita income, price levels
● Explains ~1/3 of VR employment outcome
variation in past research (GAO 2007)

11. ● VR is joint federal and state system
– Federal = Rehabilitation Services Administration (RSA)
– State = VR agencies
● Provides services to help PWD find work
● Often not enough funding –> order of selection
● Funded through federal-state matching formula
● National Council on Disability (NCD) & Government
Accountability Office (GAO): Revise the formula!
Vocational Rehabilitation?

12. VR Funding Formula Spreads
Funding Unevenly
From GAO 2009 Highlights

13. ● What is the relationship between the
employment rate for PWD and:
1. Vocational rehabilitation (VR) spending?
2. The demographics of the state’s population of
PWD?
3. Local economic circumstances?
Research Questions

14. Methodology

15. ● American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year
estimates
● RSA-2 VR expenditures by state
● Other state-level datasets
Data

16. ● OLS model with fixed effects for state and
year
● Dependent variable: State employment rate
for non-institutionalized PWD ages 16-64
(working-age)
Model

17. ● Combined state and federal VR expenditure
within state for each year
● Normalized per working-age PWD
● In other words:
vr = (state vr expenditure + federal vr
expenditure)
population of working-age PWD
VR Expenditure

18. ● Share of PWD population with:
– Sensory
– Cognitive
– Ambulatory
– Self-Care
– Independent living
● Share in last decade before age 65
● Share of general working-age population with
disability
● Size of working-age population
Demographic variables

19. Local Economic Variables
● Per capita income
● Employment rate for people without
disabilities
● Average weekly wages
● Total taxable resources

20. Interaction Variables
● VR expenditure *
– Share of working-age population with disability
– Average weekly wages
– Employment rate of people without disabilities
– Per capita income
– Working-age population

21. ● If demographic variables are significant, find
targeted ways to counteract
● If economic variables are significant, focus on
economic growth
● If VR expenditure is significant, increase funding
– Insignificance != ineffectiveness
● If interactions are significant, may be evidence for
formula adjustment
Implications

22. Limitations
● Correlation, not causation
● Undercounting population of PWD with ACS
(Burkhauser et al. 2012)
● Enough statistical power?
● Is VR effect large enough to detect?
● Funding does not mean quality

23. Next Steps
● Running diagnostics
– Poolability
– Multicollinearity
– Heteroskedasticity
– Serial correlation
● Setting up statistical model
● Analyzing data

24. Contact Information
Lauren Gilbert
(610) 316-5933
LGilbert@mathematica-mpr.com or
lg694@georgetown.edu

25. Works Cited
● Burkhauser, R. V., T. L. Fisher, A. J. Houtenville, and J. R. Tennant. " Using the 2009 CPS-
ASEC-SSA Matched Dataset to show Who is and is Not Captured in the Official Six-
Question Sequence on Disability." 14th Annual Joint Conference of the Retirement
Research Center Consortium. Washington, D.C.: 2012.
● Fogg, N. P., P. E. Harrington, and B. T. McMahon. “The Underemployment of Persons with
Disabilities during the Great Recession.” The Rehabilitation Professional, vol. 19, no.
1, 2011, pp. 3-10.
● Fogg, N. P., P. E. Harrington, and B. T. McMahon. “The Impact of the Great Recession upon
the Unemployment of Americans with Disabilities.” Journal of Vocational
Rehabilitation, vol. 33, 2010, pp. 193-202.
● Government Accountability Office. “Vocational Rehabilitation Funding Formula: Options
for Improving Equity in State Grants and Considerations for Performance
Incentives .” Report No. GAO-09-798. Washington, D.C.: Government Accountability
Office, September 2009.
● Government Accountability Office. “Vocational Rehabilitation: Improved Information and
Practices may Enhance State Agency Earnings Outcomes for SSA
Beneficiaries.” Report No. GAO-07-521. Washington, D.C.: Government
Accountability Office, May 2007.
● Institute on Disability. “2015 Annual Disability Statistics Compendium.” Available at
:[http://disabilitycompendium.org/statistics]. Accessed on June 29, 2016.

26. More Works Cited
● Institute on Employment and Disability. “Disability Statistics.” Available at
:[https://www.disabilitystatistics.org/reports/acs.cfm?statistic=2]. Accessed on July
26, 2016.
● National Council on Disability. “Vocational Rehabilitation (VR) Funding.” Workforce
Investment Act Reauthorization Topical Brief Washington, D.C.: National Council on
Disability, March 23 2010.
● Schur, L., D. Kruse, and P. Blanck. People with Disabilities: Sidelined Or Mainstreamed?
Cambridge University Press, 2013.
● Yin, M. and D. Shaewitz. “One Size does Not Fit all: A New Look at the Labor Force
Participation of People with Disabilities.” Washington, D.C.: American Institutes for
Research, September 2015.