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AAPOR 2015 election presentation

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Analysis of ABC News/Washington Post poll results on the 2014 midterm elections and a look ahead to 2016. Produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates and presented by Gary Langer at the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, May 15, 2015, in Hollywood, Florida.

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AAPOR 2015 election presentation

  1. 1. Gary Langer Langer Research Associates glanger@langerresearch.com American Association for Public Opinion Research Hollywood, Florida Friday, May 15, 2015
  2. 2. Partisanship
  3. 3. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Democrats Republicans Independents Unleaned Party ID, 1981-2003 Annual Averages ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls
  4. 4. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Democrats Republicans Independents Unleaned Party ID, 1981-2003 Annual Averages ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls
  5. 5. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Democrats Republicans Independents Unleaned Party ID, 1981-2014 Annual Averages ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls
  6. 6. Economic conditions
  7. 7. Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Unemployment 2007-2014 Jan. 2007-Oct. 2014 Bureau of Labor Statistics 4.6 10.0 5.7
  8. 8. 10.8 12.2 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Underemployment since 1994 Percent unemployed or marginally attached (U6) Bureau of Labor Statistics
  9. 9. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Long-term Unemployment, 1948-2014 Percentage of unemployed who have been jobless 27 weeks or more Bureau of Labor Statistics
  10. 10. -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Real Median Weekly Earnings 1979-2012 Bureau of Labor Statistics No college degree Bachelor’s degree and higher 68% of the U.S. population -9.1% 22.6%
  11. 11. 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 11/2/14 8/3/14 5/4/14 2/2/14 11/3/13 8/4/13 5/5/13 2/3/13 11/4/12 8/5/12 5/6/12 2/5/12 11/6/11 8/7/11 5/8/11 2/6/11 11/7/10 8/8/10 5/9/10 2/8/10 11/8/09 8/9/09 5/10/09 2/8/09 11/9/08 8/10/08 5/11/08 2/11/08 11/11/07 8/12/07 5/13/07 2/12/07 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 2007 to Nov. 2, 2014
  12. 12. 80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 201420122010200820062004200220001998199619941992199019881986 Axis Title CCI yearly average Re-election rate Consumer Comfort and House Re-election Rate Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index Correlation: .74
  13. 13. ABC/Post pre-election polls
  14. 14. ABC News “Discontent Index”  Economic subindex: Worse off under Obama, think Americans’ standard of living is in long-term decline, worried about economy’s future (α: .71).  Plus: Presidential disapproval; dissatisfaction with the political system overall; worry about terrorism, worry about Ebola, oppose gay marriage  Full index α: .77
  15. 15. Predicting House Vote  IVs: Discontent Index, age, gender, race, education, income, region, evangelical, party ID, ideology  R-square: .67  Top predictors: PID and Discontent Index
  16. 16. Significant predictors of support for GOP House candidates among likely voters Beta Democrat -.34* Discontent Index .27* Republican .21* Race: white .14* Ideology .14* ________________________________ R-square = .67 *p < .001. Predicting House Vote
  17. 17. Discontent Index - Groups -- Discontent terciles -- Low Medium High Vote preference: Dem-Rep 84-11% 36-58% 9-81% Country on wrong track 26 79 99 Anti-incumbent 44 59 68 Women 52 49 59 Democrats 64 26 7 Republicans 5 35 52 Independents 26 32 34 Liberals 54 14 3 Moderates 36 44 26 Conservatives (Net) 10 40 69 Very conservatives 3 17 37 College graduates 49 44 29 Non-graduates 51 56 71 Whites 71 75 89 Blacks 16 11 3 Latinos 8 9 3
  18. 18. GP-RV-LV among groups All RV LV Democrats 31% 32 32 Republicans 24 25 31 Independents 36 35 31 Whites 67 71 78 Nonwhites 33 28 22 Conservatives 35 36 40 Moderates 37 38 35 Liberals 26 23 24 High school/less 41 38 29 Income <$50K 55 51 43
  19. 19. Vote pref. by group House pref. House pref. %LVs Dem-Rep D-R %LVs Dem-Rep D-R All LVs 100% 44-50% -6 Govt’s ability to deal with probs: Men 47 39-56 -17 Better 11% 85-9 +76 Women 53 49-44 +5 Same 26 65-30 +35 Worse 63 28-65 -37 Democrats 33 92- 5 +87 Somewhat 19 41-51 -10 Republicans 30 3-96 -93 Much 44 23-71 -48 Independents 31 37-54 -17 State of economy Liberals 18 88-11 +77 Good NET 27 82-14 +68 Moderates 39 52-40 +12 Not so good 42 40-54 -14 Conservatives 40 17-78 -61 Poor 30 18-75 -57 Whites 76 35-59 -24 Nation’s economy Nonwhites 23 74-21 +53 Getting better 31 76-19 +57 Staying the same 47 40-55 -15 Right direction 26 83-13 +70 Getting worse 31 18-75 -57 Wrong track 70 28-65 -37
  20. 20. Further turnout effects Trust: Democratic Party-Republican Party Among likely voters Among reg. voters Health care 43-43% = 45-38% +7D Country’s main issues 38-46 +8R 38-41 +3R Immigration 36-47 +11R 38-42 +4R Economy 36-49 +13R 36-44 +8R Federal deficit 33-50 +17R 33-46 +13R Conflict with ISIS 26-48 +22R 26-45 +19R Helping the middle class 46-38 +8D 49-33 +16D Women’s issues 52-30 +22D 53-26 +27D Avg. +5R +<0.5D
  21. 21. 38% 40% 35% 39% 35%36% 33% 35% 33% 36% 26% 28% 29% 28% 28% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Democrat Republican Independent Voter Turnout by Party ID Exit polls
  22. 22. Ahead
  23. 23. 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 4/26/15 1/25/15 10/26/14 7/27/14 4/27/14 1/26/14 10/27/13 7/28/13 4/28/13 1/27/13 10/28/12 7/29/12 4/29/12 1/29/12 10/30/11 7/31/11 5/1/11 1/30/11 10/31/10 8/1/10 5/2/10 1/31/10 11/1/09 8/2/09 5/3/09 2/2/09 11/2/08 8/3/08 5/4/08 2/3/08 11/4/07 8/5/07 5/6/07 2/4/07 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 2007 to present 2014 Election
  24. 24. GOP groups Among reg. voters who are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents Bush Walker Cruz Huckabee Paul Rubio Christie Mods 31% 8 8 6 8 5 10 V.cons 8 17 20 11 9 12 3 E.W.P. 24 14 17 14 6 7 1
  25. 25. Clinton-Bush groups Among reg. voters Clinton-Bush Diff. Women 59-36% +23 Men 46-48 -2 Under 40 66-28 +38 Seniors 43-53 -10 Whites 42-53 -11 Nonwhites NET 78-16 +62 Blacks 93- 4 +89 White women w/college 57-34 +23 All other whites 38-57 -19
  26. 26. 90% 89% 88% 85% 87% 83% 81% 77% 74% 72% 10% 11% 12% 15% 13% 17% 19% 23% 26% 28% 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Racial Composition of the National Electorate National exit poll data Whites Nonwhites
  27. 27. Issues: PxP scores Gov’t action on climate change Support/important 59/68 Oppose/important 31/39 No-new-tax pledge Support/important 23/74 Oppose/important 72/40 Compromise/partisan agenda Prefer compromise/important 58/70 Prefer partisan/important 37/75 ACA Keep ACA/important 49/78 Repeal ACA/important 45/76 Path to citizenship Support/important 51/56 Oppose/important 45/62 Deal with Iran Support/important 49/44 Oppose /important 42/60 PxP score All Dems Reps Inds 29 58 -12 29 -25 -33 -21 -20 15 21 1 22 3 55 -63 5 3 30 -39 4 2 24 -29 5
  28. 28. And back to the economy… U.S. economic system All Clinton-Bush Favors the wealthy 67% 57-37% Is fair to most 27 25-72
  29. 29. While we’re talking… ABC/Post poll Election outcome D-R D-R 2014 44-50% 46-52% 2012 50-47 51-47 2010 45-49 45-51 2008 53-44 53-46 2006 51-45 52-44 2004 48-49 48-51
  30. 30. Source reports ABC News exit poll analysis:  A Fresh Blast of Discontent Reshapes the Political Order (11/5/14)  http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/11/a-fresh-blast-of-discontent-reshapes-the-political-order/ ABC News/Washington Post poll analyses:  Climate Change, Tax Pledge Among Issues to Watch in 2016 (4/3/15)  http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/climate-change-tax-pledge-issues-watch-2016-poll/story?id=30067623  Clinton’s Popularity Declines, but Still Beats her GOP Rivals’ (4/2/15)  http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clintons-popularity-declines-beats-gop-rivals-poll/story?id=30052071  Economic, Political Discontent Make for a Midterm Double Punch (10/28/14)  http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1164a1ElectionUpdate.pdf  Record Disapproval for Dems in Congress; GOPers, Congress Overall are Even Lower (10/26/14)  http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1144a46CongressionalApproval.pdf  What's Bugging Voters? Plenty: ABC News Discontent Index (10/16/14)  http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/10/whats-bugging-voters-plenty/  Trouble Looms for Obama, Democrats with Election Day 2014 Approaching (10/15/14)  http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1163a2The2014Midterms.pdf
  31. 31. American Association for Public Opinion Research Hollywood, Florida Friday, May 15, 2015 Gary Langer Langer Research Associates glanger@langerresearch.com

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