Benchmark Lithium Supply Presentation 2015 By Andrew Miller
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Benchmark Lithium Supply Presentation 2015 By Andrew Miller
- 1. Benchmark | World Tour 2015 Niche Minerals vs. Commodi;es: Opportuni;es & risks in baCery raw material markets Andrew Miller, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, UK amiller@benchmarkminerals.com | www.benchmarkminerals.com
- 2. A new genera;on of growth markets Source: Penflip, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 1800s 1st Industrial Revolu;on • Metallurgy • Steam power • Cement Raw materials: Coal, clay, limestone 1900s 2nd Industrial Revolu;on • Electrifica;on • Transporta;on • Chemicals Raw materials: Iron ore, petroleum 2000s 3rd Industrial Revolu;on • 3D prin;ng • Aerospace • Advanced materials • BaCeries
- 3. Global economic slowdown • Slowing growth in emerging economies • Slowing economic development limi;ng sales into tradi;onal end-‐markets • Industrial markets slowing – new lower equilibrium? A new genera9on of growth markets
- 4. Source: The Wall Street Journal • China’s economy underperforming for first ;me in a genera;on • 2015 GDP growth target lowered to 7.3% Long-‐term objec;ves remain: • Develop downstream markets • Protect domes;c resources • Secure low-‐cost resources abroad • Value-‐added economy • The materials China has needed over the past 20 years will change on the next 20 years China’s evolu9on
- 6. Explora;on Mining Processing Trading End-‐markets Supply chain dis9nc9ons
- 7. • Explora;on commonplace in commodi;es • New for niche minerals / specialist products – since 2009 • Explora;on widening • Lithium: Argen;na, Chile, Bolivia, USA, Canada, Ireland, Mongolia, Australia + • Graphite: Canada, Australia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Sweden + • Rare earths: USA, Canada, Australia, Greenland, Mongolia + • Cobalt: USA, Canada, Russia + Explora9on
- 8. Commodi9es • Extrac;ng material in bulk • Distribu;on and logis;cs key • Large-‐scale opera;ons • Resource loca;on diverse Niche Minerals • Small opera;ons • Focus on processing • High produc;on costs • Specialist products Mining
- 9. Extrac;on Processing Separa;on & refining Distribu;on Logis;cs Source: Gapso Analy;cs, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence $ $ $ $ $ $ = Niche Minerals $ = Commodities Processing
- 10. Trading • Exchange traded • Subject to financial instruments • Markets more fluid • Short-‐term fluctua;ons • Non-‐exchange traded • Tradi;onally annual/ bi-‐ annual contrac;ng • Rigid markets • Supply-‐chain security to force moderniza;on Commodi9es Niche Minerals
- 11. Trading Price divergence • Commodi;es ;ed closely to industrial markets • Slowing growth in emerging economies paint bleak picture • China’s currency devalua;on to limit any short-‐term recovery • Several micro and macro impediments to recovery
- 12. -‐40% -‐30% -‐20% -‐10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Nickel Tin Copper Aluminium Cobalt Graphite Lithium Prices: Commodi9es vs. Niche Minerals (Jan ‘15 – Sept ’15) Source: London Metal Exchange, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Trading • Niche minerals proving more resolute • Fortunes have become removed from tradi;onal markets • Slow turning circles, but greater upward pressure • Diverging trends already emerging
- 13. Commodi9es: • Homogenous requirements • Focus on volumes and reliable supply • Industry specs established Niche Minerals: • Several grades – differing specs • Refining process key • Specs s;ll in development End-‐markets
- 14. • Industrial markets to seCle at new lower equilibrium • Technology markets the new areas of notable growth • Evolu;on in the way we create, store, distribute and consume power • Forecasts predic;ng growth in orders of magnitude • Raw material markets under prepared for surge in demand The technology economy
- 15. Evolving industry dynamics Supply-‐chain visibility • Fear of supply disrup;on – e.g. China rare earths • The need to secure raw material supply chains reaching cri;cal level • Tradi;onal vs emerging markets • Supply chain visibility impera;ve • Pressures for sustainable sourcing
- 16. The Karooshy Price Vola;lity Curve Evolving industry dynamics
- 19. Differen9a9ng between the disruptors Project variables: 1. Grade 2. Loca;on 3. Infrastructure 4. Management team 5. Industry experience 6. Customer base
- 20. Differen9a9ng between the disruptors
- 21. Conclusions 1. Niche minerals differ from tradi;onal commodi;es on several levels 2. The emergence of new hi-‐tech markets will require larger volumes of refined material 3. This new supply is becoming a cri;cal issue 4. To maximise these opportuni;es, a full understanding of niche mineral complexi;es is required 5. New investment models will be needed to benefit from new growth sectors