1. Points of No Return
Mike Shatzkin
Making Information Pay
May 6, 2010

2. My view: coming change
dwarfs recent change
• Ebooks headed for 25% share of new narrative
books soon (end of 2012?)
• Total online sales for those books will then
exceed brick-and-mortar sales
• Entirely new publishing models enabled
(ebook first and POD)
• Disintermediation becomes a real threat
• Traditional business will have to shrink fast

3. Inside the publishing houses
• Ebook first development will occur, then grow,
then become dominant
• Brick-and-mortar will shrink gradually, then
suddenly: drastic implications for sales and
operations
• Ebook royalties of 25% become unsustainable
• Single title marketing: for authors and mega-
books only
• Consolidation occurs in many forms

4. How are people reacting to change?
Pretty optimistically…
• Most feel fundamental change has happened
(31%) or is happening now (45%)
• Most feel their job skills will “match the
industry’s future needs” (62% to 20% who
don’t think so)
• Half (52%) expect our business to become
more profitable
• Of those responding, half think we’ll have
more jobs as a result of change, not fewer

5. Some clouds in the blue sky
• Nearly half (48%) think their companies need
to provide “more education”
• Profound change in editorial will blindside
many people (a comment: “editing is
editing”); only 59% expect “fundamental
change” in editorial
• 20% do not think their skills will fit future
industry needs

6. Fun with “buzzwords”
• Big majority (62%) say Twitter is a “fad, soon
to pass”(!)
• More than a third (38%) say that about “free
as a price point”
• More than a quarter (28%) say that about
“crowd sourcing”
• Long term trends: digital marketing, web
analytics, publishing in vertical niches (75+%)

7. Today’s program: before the break
Experts deliver data and insight
• Kelly Gallagher of Bowker: what consumers are
saying about change
• David Guenette of Gilbane: the 7 essential
systems for publishers
• Jabin White of Wolters Kluwer: how change
affects the people who are part of it
• George Lossius of Publishing Technology:
investment decisions in a time of rapid change
• Steve Walker of SBS Worldwide (sponsor): supply
chain cost savings

8. Today’s program: after the break
Publishers in the trenches
• John Konczal of Sterling Commerce (sponsor):
tools to enable new business models
• Bruce Shaw & Adam Salomone of Harvard
Common Press: editors acquiring for a portfolio
• Phil Madans of Hachette: workflow shift from
“assembly line” to “collaboration”
• Matt Baldacci of Macmillan: the shift in
marketing spending and skills
• Maureen McMahon of Kaplan: connecting, not
closing and new hiring criteria for sales