MLB: Advanced Tournament Strategy

1. Course 3: MLB Strategy
Advanced Tournament Strategy
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Lesson Overview
Desired outcome is to create a lineup with a high ceiling. We can
accomplish this through the following levers:
I. Pitcher selection: key stats, vegas, weather & ballpark factors
II. Hitter selection: key stats, vegas, weather & ballpark factors
III. Lineup construction: stacking, multiple lineups, using an optimizer
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3. I. Pitcher Selection
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Pitcher Selection: Key Elements
Stat Notes
Vegas Data Team expected runs, win probability
wOBA Against Larger sample size is more indicative
Strikeouts / Opp. K/9, K/9 opposition
Ballpark/Weather Park factors, wind, avoid any chance of rain
Pitch Count Also combined with innings pitched
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Pitcher Selection: Key Stats
Source: Fantasy Labs
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Pitcher Selection: Using Vegas
Stat Notes
Team Totals Totals take into account many variables including weather, park factors etc..
Player Props They are not always accurate but can provide a general estimate
First 5 Innings Help eliminate bullpen influence
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7. II. Hitter Selection
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Hitter Selection: Key Elements
Stat Notes
Coors Field Largest run and HR rate
Batting Order Top of order tends to be high owned
Home Run Ability High power = high ceiling
Handedness Splits Matchup wOBA by RotoQL
Temperature/Wind Pay less attention to rain-outs
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Hitter Selection: Using Vegas
Stat Notes
Team Expected Runs Suggest predicted runs scored
Over/Under Best games with high predicted FPTs
Player Props Usually don’t get released until the day of game
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DK Fantasy Points vs Batting Order
Source: Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy
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Average Batting by Split
Source: Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy
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Source: Sports Baseball America
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Hitter Selection: Weather & Ballpark Factors
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Hitter Selection: Weather & Ballpark Factors
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14. III. Lineup Construction
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Tournament Lineup Construction: Key Elements
Stat Notes
Salary Distribution FanDuel vs. DraftKings differences
Chalk Players “Obvious” favorites
Predicting Ownership Recent performance, matchup, value among factors
Stacking High predicted ceiling
Multiple Lineups Be aware of the exposure risks
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Pitcher Selection: Salary Distribution
Source: Daily Roto
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Chalk Players
What are chalk players?
● “Obvious” favorites that are highly owned and likely to perform well
● If 7 out of 10 lineups in a tournament have Bryce Harper, he would be considered to be
70% owned
How do chalk players affect tournament lineups?
● Want to include chalk in certain situations
Example:
○ Kershaw’s probability to be a top scoring pitcher is 80%
○ His projected ownership is 60%
○ Result: Play him
● Note: May not want to go all chalk if your lineup is a duplicate, as that is a huge loss in
EV
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Predicting Ownership
Source: DFS Mancave
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Stacking
Examples:
● Split Stacks - 5 v 3, 4 v 4
● Mini Stacks - 4 v 3, 3 v 3, etc.
● Popular - Coors Stacks, Batting 1-5 spots
● Value Stacks - Less Heralded Offenses
Keep in Mind
● Stack the Maximum
● More Valuable on FanDuel - RBI scoring
● Be Mindful of % Total Salary
DraftKings FanDuel
Allowed Stack Size Up to 5 players Up to 4 players
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Stack Size vs Outcome [DraftKings]
Source: DraftKings Playbook
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The Case for Multiple Tournament Lineups
Source: Chris Vox & Thomas Fuller via All In Mag
Percentile Finish (FD = blue, DK= red)
Number of
Lineups
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