20210707-dashboard.pdf

COVID-19 Dashboard
of Economic Indicators
7 July 2021

2
Evolutie van de
COVID-19-pandemie

Evolutie van het aantal opnames in het ziekenhuis
642
899
12
266
5759
7461
262
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900 15/03/2020
01/04/2020
18/04/2020
05/05/2020
22/05/2020
08/06/2020
25/06/2020
12/07/2020
29/07/2020
15/08/2020
01/09/2020
18/09/2020
05/10/2020
22/10/2020
08/11/2020
25/11/2020
12/12/2020
29/12/2020
15/01/2021
01/02/2021
18/02/2021
07/03/2021
24/03/2021
10/04/2021
27/04/2021
14/05/2021
31/05/2021
17/06/2021
04/07/2021
Aantal nieuwe opnames (linkeras) Totaal aantal patiënten in het ziekenhuis (rechteras)
3
Bron: Sciensano, Belgisch Instituut voor de Volksgezondheid: 6 juli 2021.
https://epidemio.wiv-isp.be/ID/Documents/Covid19/Meest recente update.pdf
Aantal gehospitaliseerde patiënten daalt verder

68.7
67.3
66.8
65.4
64.2
60.2
56.9
56.7
56.1
54.5
51.1
43.2
43.2
37.1
25.7
20.8
17.2
5.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Canada
Chile
United Kingdom
Israel
Belgium
Netherlands
Italy
Spain
Germany
United States
France
China
Turkey
Brazil
Japan
India
Russia
South Africa
At least one vaccine dose
Fully vacinated
4
Number of people (fully) vaccinated1
(per 100 people in total population, as of 6 June 2021 or most recent)
Multispeed vaccination process
Source: Our World in Data (OWID), Sciensano.
1 People are fully vaccinated if they have received all doses (be it one or two) prescribed by the respective vaccination protocols. Chinese data are as of 10 June 2021
As a percentage of the Belgian
adult/18+ population, 79.3 %
(45.2 %) of people have been
(fully) vaccinated as of 4 July 2021
Belgium

5
New confirmed COVID-19 deaths1
(selected countries; 7-day moving average)
Epicentre of pandemic has shifted towards developing world
Vaccinating the world is good economic policy
Sources: Johns Hopkins University (JHU), Our World in Data (OWID), Sciensano.
1 Limited testing and challenges in the attribution of the cause of death implies that the number of confirmed deaths may not always be an accurate count of the true number of deaths from COVID-19.
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500 3/2020
4/2020
5/2020
6/2020
7/2020
8/2020
9/2020
10/2020
11/2020
12/2020
1/2021
2/2021
3/2021
4/2021
5/2021
6/2021
7/2021
Germany France Italy United Kingdom United States India Brazil Belgium

6
GDP and confidence indicators
for Belgium

80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Recent statistics p.m. June 2021 projections¹ p.m. Scenario without COVID-19
7
The Belgian economy is gradually shifting up a gear; GDP should
reach its pre-crisis level by the end of the year
Real GDP in Belgium
(quarterly data, index 2019Q4=100, annual growth rates in the top boxes)
1.8 % -6.3 %
P R O J E C T I O N S
Sources: National Accounts Institute (NAI), National Bank of Belgium (NBB), latest available data: 30 June 2021 – Update NBB.Stat series - Quarterly accounts (2021-I)
1 Published on 14 June in the NBB Economic Review.

8
Het ondernemersvertrouwen is hoger dan ooit
-32 (maart 2009)
-11 (maart 2020)
-36 (april 2020)
10 (juni 2021)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Brutoreeks Langetermijngemiddelde¹ Afgevlakte reeks
Algemene synthetische curve
Bron: Nationale Bank van België (NBB), laatst beschikbare gegevens: 24 juni 2021, Perscommuniqué - Conjunctuurbarometer (2021-06).
1 Het langetermijngemiddelde werd berekend over de periode 1990-2020.

Baromètre de conjoncture – Belgique : Branches d’activité – juin 2021
Le climat des affaires continue à s’améliorer dans toutes les branches
d’activité sondées, à l’exception de la construction
9
Moyenne de long terme1
Série dessaisonalisée et lissée Série dessaisonalisée
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Industrie manufacturière
Commerce
Construction
Services aux entreprises
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: Banque nationale de Belgique (BNB), dernières données disponibles: 24 juin 2021.
1 La moyenne de long terme est calculée sur la période 1990-2020 (sauf pour les services dont données sont disponibles à partir de 1995).

10
Ook het consumentenvertrouwen verstevigt verder in juni en
scheert hoge toppen
-9
(maart
2020)
-26 (augustus 2020)
8 (juni 2021)
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Consumentenvertrouwen Langetermijngemiddelde¹
Bron: NBB, laatst beschikbare gegevens: 21 juni 2021, Perscommuniqué - Indicator van het consumentenvertrouwen (2021-06)
1 Het langetermijngemiddelde werd berekend over de periode 1990-2020.
Indicator van het consumentenvertrouwen

In June, around 13 % of households suffer an income loss of more than
10 % (very slight deterioration of the situation) and 43 % of them have
a savings buffer of less than 3 months1
12 13 9 10 9 11
19 23 20 20 13
22
14 13
13 13 14 13
18
21 22 21
27
21
16 15 18 19 15 19
28
21 26 24 22 24
58 59 60 59 62 57
35 34 33 35 38 33
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Total Households with losses > 10%²
Less than 1 month 1 - 3 months
4 - 6 months More than 6 months
11
Source: NBB, replies to June 2021 consumer survey (additional COVID-19 questions).
1 Households with losses >10% (13 %) and less than three months savings (43 %) = 5 % of the total of households.
2 13 % of total respondents.
How long can you cover your expenses
through a savings buffer?
(in % of the 1 850 respondents, unless otherwise stated)
Is your household suffering
a loss of income?
(in % of 1 850 respondents) Yes:
More than >10 %:
13 %
77 76 77 83 81 82
7 7 7
6 7 6
9 10 9 6 7 7
5 4 3 3 3 4
3 3 3 2 2 2
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
No losses < 10% 10-30%
30-50% >50%
No losses: 82 %
A large majority of
Belgian households
has been unaffected
(so far)

0
20
40
60
80
100
Mar
Apr
May
June
Mar
Apr
May
June
Mar
Apr
May
June
Mar
Apr
May
June
Belgium (1850
respondents)
Flanders (750
respondents)
Wallonia (750
respondents)
Brussels (350
respondents)
No losses < 10% 10 - 30 % 30 - 50% > 50%
12
Savings buffer remains structurally higher in
Flanders; in June, the saving buffer more than
6 months decreases in Wallonia and in Brussels
(in % of respondents with loss of income)
In June, the proportion of households
suffering no loss of income remains quite
stable in the three regions
(in % of respondents)
Situation appears somewhat worse in Wallonia and in Brussels
20
18
19
18
17 16 13
19 16 18
11
18 19 16 15
22
16 15 15 16
19 17 22
18
8
13
16
15
24
17
27
20
25 22 25 22
24
24 23
24
18
11 21
14
29
30
24
31
23 33 25 30
40 43 42 38
58 58
52 53
29
38 35
27
36
30 35 32
0
20
40
60
80
100
Mar
Apr
May
June
Mar
Apr
May
June
Mar
Apr
May
June
Mar
Apr
May
June
Belgium Flanders Wallonia Brussels
Less than 1 month 1 - 3 months
4 - 6 months More than 6 months
Source: NBB, replies to June 2021 consumer survey (additional COVID-19 questions).

14
Source: National Accounts Institute (NAI), latest available data: first quarter 2021.
Total employment has now also returned to growth
Self-employment growth was positive throughout the crisis
(QoQ variation in %)
0,5
0,4
0,4 0,4
-0,3
-0,8
0,2
0,6
0,2
-1,2
-1,0
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2019 2020 2021
Self-employed Employee Total employment

pm thousands
of people
4 893
213
656
855
979
31
113
129
1 004
291
562
60
0.67
-0.43
0.90
-1.16
0.70
-1.82
1.67
-0.56
0.74
1.45
0.43
-0.02
-2,0 -1,5 -1,0 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0
Agriculture
Industry
Construction
Trade, hotels and restaurants, transport
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Business services
Public administration and education
Health and social services
Other service activities
Total employment
Source: NAI.
15
Impact on employment stronger for some branches of activity
(QoQ variation in % wrt 2019)

16
Source: Federgon, dernières données disponibles: mai 2021.
Reprise du travail intérimaire
(données mensuelles, en milliers d’heures)
406
673
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

17
Sources: Actiris, Forem, VDAB, dernières données disponibles: mai 2021.
VDAB
Actiris
De nombreuses opportunités d’emplois sont présentes dans les trois
Régions du pays
(moyenne mensuelle des offres d’emplois reçues par les services publics de l’emploi régionaux via le circuit ordinaire)
Forem
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
2019
2020
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
2020 2021
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
2019
2020
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
2020 2021
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
2019
2020
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
2020 2021

18
Source: NBB, dernières données disponibles (séries dessaisonalisées): juin 2021.
Les prévisions d’emplois issues des enquêtes de conjoncture
continuent de s’améliorer
(données désaisonnalisées et lissées)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6
2019 2020 2021
Industrie
Construction (gros œuvre de bâtiments)
Commerce
Services aux entreprises
Série dessaisonalisée et lissée Série dessaisonalisée

Mass redundancy procedure openings follow lockdowns
(workers concerned)
19
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2020 2021 pm monthly average 2019
Source: Federal Public Service Employment, Labour and Social Dialogue (FPS ELSD), latest data available: June 2021.

20
Source: NEO, latest available data: June 2021.
Annual variation
(monthly data, thousands of people)
Unemployment upsurge, fully compensated for the time being …
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Flanders Wallonia Brussels Belgium
Number of unemployed job-seekers
(monthly data, thousands of people)
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
M8
M9
M10
M11
M12
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
2020 2021
Average 2019

21
… but potential risk of rise in structural unemployment
Variation with respect to 2019
(thousands of people)
Source: NEO..
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Men
Women
Less
than
6
months
6-12
months
1
year
and
more
Younger
than
20
20-30
years
30-50
years
50
and
older
Low-educated
Medium-educated
Highly-educated
average 2020 peak 2020 (Augustus) Latest available data (May 2021)

22
Source: NAI, NEO, NBB, latest available data: May 2021.
Temporary unemployment: following lockdown measures
930
29%
1 146
36%
917
29%
561
18%
340
11%
310
10%
247
8%
376
12%
465
15% 353
11%
382
12%
393
12%
422
11%
403
11%
258
8%
1 033
1 233
986
615
410
331
248
423
518
388 415 425
465 449
316
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
March April May June July August September October NovemberDecember January February March April May
2020 2021
Payments pm Employer's request (DRS) pm highest level recorded during the financial crisis
Average number of days per worker
8.8 15.8 10.9 9.4 8.3 8.3 8.6 8.1 10.4 10.0 10.8 10.0 9.8 10.0 8.8
Monthly effective use and access demands
(payments linked to COVID-19, thousands of people and % of private salaried employment, p.m. DRS linked to COVID-19, thousands of people,
monthly data)

23
Source: Federal Public Service Social Security, confidential data, NAI, NBB, latest available data: May 2021.
1 Data related to payments.
Bridging right, provisional data1
(thousands of people and % of self-employed in principal activity)
Almost one in ten self-employed continue to be financially supported
396
(48 %)
414
(50 %) 379
(46 %)
144
(17 %) 121
(15 %)
119
(14 %) 85
(10 %)
116
(14 %)
163
(19 %) 133
(16 %) 106
(13 %)
105
(12 %)
114
(14 %)
101
(12 %) 71
(8 %)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
2020 2021
Before the crisis, about 90 self-employed benefited of the bridging right.
At the peak of the crisis, in April, they were 414 000.

64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
T1
T2
T3
T4
T1
T2
T3
T4
T1
T2
T3
T4
T1
T2
T3
T4
T1
T2
T3
T4
T1
M4
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Trimestriel Mensuel
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
7,5
8,0
8,5
9,0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T1
T2
T3
T4
T1
T2
T3
T4
T1
T2
T3
T4
T1
T2
T3
T4
T1
M4
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
24
Source: Statbel (enquêtes force de travail), dernières données disponibles: Avril 2021.
Note: à partir de 2021, les chômeurs temporaires de plus de 3 mois sont comptabilisés comme étant au chômage. Avant 2021, ils restaient parmi les personnes en emploi.
Taux de chômage
(population active âgée de 15 à 64 ans)
Taux d’emploi
(population âgée de 20 à 64 ans)
La crise sanitaire a interrompu une dynamique positive sur le marché
du travail

The ERMG survey has been monitoring the COVID-19 impact on
companies and self-employed since the beginning of the crisis¹
◆ Surveys conducted by (selection of) the following federations:
26
Round Period Federations Replies Comment
1 23-24 March 2020 BECI, UWE, VOKA 1 700 Results not published
2 30-31 March 2020 BECI, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 4 725 First press release
3 6-7 April 2020 BECI, BOERENBOND, NSZ, UNISOC, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 6 900 UNISOC was analysed separately
4 14-15 April 2020 BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 5 500
7 5-6 May 2020 BECI, BOERENBOND, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 2 675
8 12-13 May 2020 BECI, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 2 185
9 25-27 May 2020 BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 2 993
10 8-10 June 2020 BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 2 365
11 22-24 June 2020 BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 3 136
12 17-19 August 2020 BECI, NSZ, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 4 430
13 21-23 September 2020 BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 2 868
14 19-21 October 2020 BECI, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 5 131
15 9-10 November 2020 BECI, NSZ, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 5 631
16 7-9 December 2020 BECI, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 3 798
17 11-13 January 2021 BECI, NSZ, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 5 348
18 8-10 February 2021 BECI, NSZ, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 3 194
19 15-17 March 2021 BECI, BOERENBOND, NSZ, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 3 884
20 19-21 April 2021 BECI, NSZ, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 3 334 Last week of Easter measures
21 25-26 May 2021 BECI, NSZ, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 2 274
22 21-23 June 2021 BECI, NSZ, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 1 936
Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 22 June 2021.
¹ Note that changes over time should be interpreted with care as the companies participating to the survey and the composition of the sample can differ from one survey to another.

-33-33
-36
-33-34
-32
-29
-31
-26
-23
-17
-13-14-14
-17
-14-12
-10 -9 -10 -10
-8
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
23
March
2020
30
March
2020
6
April
2020
13
April
2020
20
April
2020
27
April
2020
5
May
2020
12
May
2020
26
May
2020
9
June
2020
23
June
2020
18
August
2020
22
September
2020
20
October
2020
10
November
2020
8
December
2020
12
January
2021
9
February
2021
16
March
2021
20
April
2021
25
May
2021
22
June
2021
27
¹ The COVID-19 impact shows the turnover loss compared to what would have happened without COVID-19.
² This approach excludes the human health industry, the public sector and firms that were identified as belonging to a miscellaneous ‘other’ industry.
³ 2022 turnover expectations were not asked in the survey rounds before December.
Expected impact¹ on turnover in
2021/2022
(in %, weighted average based on turnover and industry value
added²)
COVID-19 impact¹ on weekly turnover
(in %, weighted average based on turnover
and industry value added²)
-10
-10
-11
-12
-9
-6
-9
-4
-7
-3
-8
-4
-8
-3
-8
-3
-6
-4
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2021 2022
Expectation of August 2020 survey
Expectation of September 2020 survey
Expectation of October 2020 survey
Expectation of November 2020 survey
Expectation of December 2020 survey
Expectation of January 2021 survey
Expectation of February 2021 survey
Expectation of March 2021 survey
Expectation of April 2021 survey
Expectation of May 2021 survey
Expectation of June 2021 survey
Turnover and the 2021 outlook improve in June
(thanks to the improved health situation and the easing of measures)
NA³
Recovery
Lockdown I Plateau
Lockdown
II Recovery
Easter
measures
Recovery

-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Travel
agencies
Arts,
entertainment
and
recreation
Accommodation
and
food
services
Transportation
and
logistics¹
Retail
sales
(non-food)¹
Non-medical
contact
professions
Retail
sales
(food)¹
Agriculture
Real
estate
activities
Support
services
Manufacturing
Information
and
communication
Wholesale
Construction
Financial
and
insurance
activities
March-April
2020
(Lockdown I)
May-June
2020
August-October
2020
November
2020
(Lockdown II)
December-March
2021
April
2021
(Easter
measures)
May
2021
June
2021
28
Turnover recovers in most industries and especially in
accommodation and food services and contact professions
COVID-19 impact on weekly turnover
(in %, weighted average based on turnover; industries are sorted by the June turnover loss)
¹ The June turnover of non-food and food retail as well as transportation and logistics seems to be underestimated due to composition effects.

March-April
2020
(Lockdown I)
May-June
2020
August-
October
2020
November
2020
(Lockdown II)
December-
March
2021
April
2021
(Easter
May
2021
June
2022
Travel agencies -88 -88 -88 -81 -89 -93 -88 -82
Aviation¹ -51 -60 -27 -15 -57 -16 -87 -62
Events and recreation -85 -83 -79 -77 -77 -80 -53 -47
Road transport (persons) -55 -57 -15 -13 -38 -41 -78 -45
Accommodation and food service activities -89 -78 -49 -66 -74 -67 -68 -30
Retail sales (non-food) -80 -28 -15 -51 -14 -23 -21 -25
Manufacture of furniture -66 -31 -13 -7 -4 -2 -5 -24
Non-medical contact professions -93 -48 -29 -68 -71 -84 -35 -23
Retail sales (food) -4 -8 -4 -9 1 1 -2 -19
Liberal professions -23 -18 -10 -12 -13 -10 -9 -15
Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel and shoes -61 -43 -6 -19 -11 -10 -7 -14
Manufacture of wood and paper products, and printing -36 -27 -11 -14 -12 -12 -12 -10
Manufacture of transport equipment¹ -54 -36 -12 -21 -12 -15 -15 -10
Agriculture and fishing -14 -14 -6 -12 -11 -9 -9 -8
Real estate activities -36 -26 -15 -37 -11 -7 -7 -7
Consultancy -17 -20 -11 -14 -8 -4 -9 -6
Manufacture of food products -18 -19 -9 -12 -12 -16 -7 -6
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products -28 -19 -25 -11 -4 -2 2 -5
Engineering services -33 -15 -19 -12 -8 -3 -2 -4
Human Resources -35 -30 -13 -11 -13 -25 -4 -4
Information and communication -20 -29 -13 -13 -5 -4 -6 -3
Cleaning and security services¹ -41 -22 -10 -10 -13 -8 -5 -3
Manufacture of pharmaceutical and chemical products -16 -20 -11 -8 -6 -3 -4 -2
Wholesale -49 -31 -10 -19 -8 -2 -6 -2
Logistics -22 -26 -11 -11 -7 -2 -14 -2
Construction -45 -20 -10 -9 -7 -5 -4 -2
Manufacture of plastic and non-metallic products -19 -19 -12 -10 -4 0 -1 -1
Manufacture of machinery and electrical equipment -29 -24 -14 -10 -9 -3 -12 0
Financial and insurance activities -13 -11 -8 -10 -2 -4 -11 0
Metallurgy and metal products -23 -30 -23 -10 -4 -4 0 0
29
¹ The results for these industries are based on only a few respondents and should therefore be interpreted with caution.
Impact of the COVID-19 crisis on company turnover by industry
(in %, weighted average based on turnover)
<-50%
0to-10%
-10to-20%
-20to-50%

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Travel agencies Arts,
entertainment
and recreation
Accommodation
and food services
Non-medical
contact
professions
Transportation
and logistics
Retail sales
(non-food)
Retail sales (food) Information and
communication
Real estate
activities
Agriculture Support services Manufacturing Financial and
insurance
activities
Wholesale Construction
Turnover decline by 100% Turnover decline by 75 - 99% Turnover decline by 50 - 75%
Turnover decline by 20 - 50% Turnover decline by 10 - 20% Turnover decline by 5 - 10%
Turnover decline by 0 - 5% No impact on turnover Positive impact on turnover
30
In addition to large cross-sectoral differences, the turnover loss of
firms continues to strongly differ within most industries
Source: Round 22 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 22 June 2021.
¹ The results on this slide are not weighted by the firm size. Given that for most industries the smaller firms report a larger loss, these unweighted results represent a larger average turnover loss compared to
the average turnover loss weighted by firm size, which is shown on the previous slides.
COVID-19 impact on current turnover (survey 22 June)
(in % of responding firms; unweighted¹)

-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Self-employed 1 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 50 50 - 250 250 - 1000 > 1000
March-April
2020
(Lockdown I)
May-June
2020
August-October
2020
November
2020
(Lockdown II)
December-March
2021
April
2021
(Easter
measures)
May
2021
June
2021
31
¹ The average is not weighted by turnover, and it is not stratified by industry, but the observations of Boerenbond are excluded (to avoid an overrepresentation of the agriculture industry in the sample).
COVID-19 impact on weekly turnover, by firm size
(in %, unweighted average¹)
The turnover loss of the self-employed and the smallest firms
has been cut in half in two months’ time, but it still remains sizable

-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Self-employed 1 - 10
employees
10 - 20
employees
20 - 50
employees
50 - 250
employees
250-1000
employees
>1000
employees
Flemish Region Walloon Region Brussels-Capital Region
32
¹ The average is not weighted by turnover, and it is not stratified by industry.
COVID-19 impact on current turnover, by firm size and by region (survey 22 June)
(in %, unweighted average¹)
The turnover loss of the self-employed and smallest firms continues
to be larger in Wallonia and especially Brussels

-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0 Travel
agencies
Arts,
entertainment
and
recreation
Accommodation
and
food
services
Transportation
and
logistics
Retail
sales
(non-food)
Non-medical
contact
professions
Retail
sales
(food)
Agriculture
Real
estate
activities
Support
services
Manufacturing
Information
and
communication
Wholesale
Construction
Financial
and
insurance
activities
Week of 22 June 2021 2021 expectation 2022 expectation
33
The turnover loss is expected to substantially narrow in 2022,
but it will still be substantial for the worst-hit industries
Expected COVID-19 impact on current turnover and on turnover in 2021 and 2022 (survey 22 June)
(in %, weighted average based on turnover)

34
¹ Stratified by industry. Please note that there are no results for the surveys of May and June 2020.
Reasons for the current turnover loss due to the COVID-19 crisis
(in % of responding firms¹, multiple reasons are possible)
Fewer firms are affected by the restrictive measures and weak demand
but supply chain issues are increasingly hampering the recovery
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Lack of demand Forced closure Social Distancing Supply chain
problems
Staff shortage Liquidity problems Other Not applicable:
no revenue loss
March-April
2020
(Lockdown I)
August-October
2020
November
2020
(Lockdown II)
December
2020
January
2021
February
2021
March
2021
April
2021
(Easter
measures)
May
2021
June
2021

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
May
June
May
June
May
June
May
June
May
June
May
June
May
June
Wholesale Retail sales
(non-food)
Construction Manufacturing Agriculture Retail sales
(food)
Accommodation
and food
services
Severely
disrupted
supplies
Moderately
disrupted
supplies
Slightly
disrupted
supplies
No
supply
disruption
Not applicable:
my firm is not
dependent on supplies
35
Supplies remain strongly disrupted in June, especially for wholesale,
non-food retail, construction, manufacturing and agriculture
Source: Rounds 21 and 22 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 22 June 2021.
Have you experienced supply problems (other than price increases) this month?
(in % of responding firms; only sectors that heavily depend on supplies are shown)

36
Firms suffering from supply chain problems due to shortages at the level of the supplier
The supply chain disruptions are mainly caused by supplier shortages,
which have further increased in June …
0
20
40
60
80
100
(non-food)
(food)
Accommodation
and food services
May survey June survey

37
Firms suffering from supply chain problems due to transport issues
… but supply chain disruptions are also caused by transport issues,
which have also further increased in June
0
20
40
60
80
100
(non-food)
(food)
Accommodation
and food services

0
5
10
15
20
(non-food)
(food)
Accommodation
and food services
38
In addition, input costs of firms are much higher than normal,
especially in construction, wholesale, manufacturing and agriculture
Input costs: average deviation from normal
(in %; only sectors that heavily depend on supplies are shown)

39
Impact of supply issues and hiring difficulties on your company this month (survey 22 June)
(in % of responding firms, multiple consequences are possible)
The supply issues and hiring difficulties have resulted in a temporary
turnover loss, loss of customers and a reduction of inventories
0
20
40
60
80
100
Temporary loss of
turnover
Loss of customers Reduction of my
inventory
Claims for damages
caused by customers
Other No consequence Not applicable: no
supply problems and
no problems finding
the right staff
Retail sales (non-food) Wholesale Manufacturing
Construction Agriculture Retail sales (food)
Accommodation and food services Transportation and logistics Non-medical contact professions
Arts, entertainment and recreation Information and communication Travel agencies
Real estate activities Support services Financial and insurance activities

40
Distribution of the location of the company’s suppliers
(in % of deliveries; average, weighted by turnover; only sectors that heavily depend on supplies are shown)
There are no indications of significant and broad-based reshoring
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Before
COVID
This
month
In
2
years'
time
Before
COVID
This
month
In
2
years'
time
Before
COVID
This
month
In
2
years'
time
Before
COVID
This
month
In
2
years'
time
Before
COVID
This
month
In
2
years'
time
Before
COVID
This
month
In
2
years'
time
Before
COVID
This
month
In
2
years'
time
Wholesale Retail non-food Construction Manufacturing Agriculture Retail food Accomodation
and food services
UK Outside of EU/UK Other EU Neighbouring countries Belgium

41
¹ Stratified by industry.
Sales channels used before COVID-19, currently and in 2 years’ time
(in % of responding firms, multiple sales channels are possible)
The use of online sales channels will accelerate further in the coming
two years, but traditional channels will be maintained
0
20
40
60
80
100
Own online
shop
Online
marketplace
Social media Mobile apps Orders via
emails
Electronic Data
Interchange
Brick and
mortar shop
Sales
representatives
Callcenter
0
20
40
60
80
100
Own online
shop
Online
marketplace
Social media Mobile apps Orders via
emails
Electronic Data
Interchange
Brick and
mortar shop
Sales
representatives
Callcenter
Before COVID-19 Currently In 2 years' time
Belgium¹
Retail non-food

42
Firms with an own online shop (before COVID-19, now and in 2 years’ time)
(in % of responding firms, multiple sales channels are possible)
The own online shop, in particular, will become a more important
sales channel for most industries
0
20
40
60
80
100 Wholesale
Retail
sales
(non-food)
Retail
sales
(food)
Travel
agencies
Accommodation
and
food
services
Agriculture
Cleaning
and
security
services
Financial
and
insurance
activities
Real
estate
activities
Arts,
entertainment
and
recreation
Manufacturing
Information
and
communication
Construction
Non-medical
contact
professions
Road
transport
(persons)
Transportation
and
logistics
Support
services
Before COVID-19 Currently In 2 years' time

0
20
40
60
80
100 20
April
27
April
5
May
12
May
26
May
9
June
23
June
18
August
22
September
20
October
10
November
8
December
12
January
9
February
16
March
20
April
25
May
22
June
43
¹ Average, weighted by the number of the private sector employees of the industries in the Belgian economy.
Workforce organisation over time, Belgium¹
(in % of total staff size of the firms in the survey, excl. self-employed)
More workers are at the workplace as the use of full-time telework and
temporary unemployment have declined in recent months
0
20
40
60
80
100
Travel
agencies
Arts,
entertainment
and
recreation
Accommodation
and
food
services
Non-medical
contact
professions
Retail
sales
(food)
Information
and
communication
Retail
sales
(non-food)
Transportation
and
logistics
Manufacturing
Wholesale
Agriculture
Support
services
Construction
Financial
and
insurance
activities
Real
estate
activities
Workforce organisation by industry (survey 22 June)
(in % of total staff size of the firms in the survey, excl. self-employed)
sick leave
at workplace on leave
mix telework/workspace
full-time telework
temporarily unemployed

-20 000
-10 000
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
Belgium¹
Accommodation
and
food
services
Wholesale
and
retail
trade
Arts,
entertainment
and
recreation
Real
estate
activities
Agriculture
Financial
and
insurance
activities
Information
and
communication
Transportation
and
logistics
Construction
Manufacturing
Support
services
44
1 Total net change in employees in the industries considered.
Expected net change in employees in 2021 (survey 22 June)
(in number of private sector employees, excluding self-employed)
Lay-offs in the worst-hit industries in 2021 could be more than offset
by planned hiring in several large industries …

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Construction
Transportation
and
logistics
Information
and
communication
Manufacturing
Support
services
Accommodation
and
food
services
Retail
sales
(food)
Wholesale
Retail
sales
(non-food)
Financial
and
insurance
activities
Agriculture
Non-medical
contact
professions
Real
estate
activities
Arts,
entertainment
and
recreation
45
… but recruitment difficulties are very elevated in most industries
Firms that encountered recruitment difficulties in the past six months (survey 22 June)
(in % of responding firms (excl. self-employed and firms that did not want to hire))

46
¹ The results per Region were not stratified by industry.
Difficulties in recruiting staff over the past six months
(in % of responding firms¹ (excl. self-employed and firms that did not want to hire), multiple impediments are possible)
Difficulties in recruiting staff are larger in the Flemish Region and
mostly pertain to a lack of applicants or qualifications
0
20
40
60
80
Not enough applicants Applicants did not have
the required
qualifications
The specific COVID-19
related circumstances
hampered the
recruitment process
The applicant did not
accept the pay
conditions
The applicant did not
accept the working
conditions
Other reasons No, I had no difficulty in
recruiting suitable staff

47
¹ The results per Region were not stratified by industry.
What strategies were employed more than usual in the past 6 months to solve the staff shortages?
(in % of responding firms¹ (excl. self-employed and firms that did not have staff shortages), multiple strategies are possible)
Firms have resorted more than usual to staff training, use of external
labour and extra efforts to recruit staff
0
20
40
Training and
further
development of
existing staff
Consultants,
freelancers, interim
labor, job students
or temporary
contracts
Outsourcing work
to another
company
Offering better
salary conditions
Improving working
conditions
Recruiting from
new geographical
areas
Organisation of
commuting by the
company
Other No
additional strategy

4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
7,5
March-April
2020
(Lockdown I)
May-June
2020
August-October²
2020
November²
2020
(Lockdown II)
December²
2020
January²
2021
February²
2021
March²
2021
April²
2021
(Easter
measures)
May²
2021
June²
2021
<10 employees 10-50 employees >50 employees
48
¹ Results are not stratified by industry, but the observations of Boerenbond are excluded (to avoid an overrepresentation of the agriculture industry in the sample).
² The degree of concern for the smallest firms and self-employed as of August 2020 is lower when excluding companies of the federation UCM, which only participated in the surveys as of August 2020.
Degree of concern, by firm size
(index on a scale of 1 (low concern) to 10 (high concern); unweighted average¹)
The degree of concern again strongly decreased for the SMEs
and it remained stable at a low level for the large firms

0
5
10
15
20
25
Aug.
2020
Sep.
2020
Oct.
2020
Nov.
2020
Dec.
2020
Jan.
2021
Feb.
2021
March
2021
April
2021
May
2021
June
2021
49
The number of firms that expect to file for bankruptcy has further
decreased in June
¹ Stratified by industry.
Do you expect to file for bankruptcy within the next 6 months?
(in % of responding firms)
Belgium¹, over time By industry (survey 22 June)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Travel
agencies
Arts,
entertainment
and
recreation
Real
estate
activities
Accommodation
and
food
services
Financial
and
insurance
activities
Information
and
communication
Retail
sales
(non-food)
Non-medical
contact
professions
Support
services
Manufacturing
Retail
sales
(food)
Transportation
and
logistics
Construction
Agriculture
Wholesale
Yes, within 3 months
Yes, already in bankruptcy process Yes, within 6 months
Yes, within 1 month

50
Credit indicators
households

-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
K1
K2
K3
K4
K1
Financiële rekeningen jaarlijks 2020 2021
Trimestriële data
Andere activa¹ Deposito's Beleggingsfondsen Schuldbewijzen Genoteerde aandelen Totaal
51
Bron: NBB, laatste beschikbare gegevens: maart 2021 (recentste bijwerking: 7 juni 2021).
1 Andere activa bevatten voornamelijk verzekeringsproducten en niet-genoteerde aandelen. Deze worden niet geraamd op maandelijkse basis.
Waardeverminderingen in 2020K1 van de financiële activa van de
particulieren hersteld tegen einde 2020 – verhoogd sparen in 2020
Financiële activa van de particulieren:
transacties
(in € miljard)
Financiële activa van de particulieren:
revaluaties
(in € miljard)
◆ In 2020K1 veroorzaakte de sterke daling in de beurskoersen waardedalingen in de financiële
activa van de particulieren voor 62,8 miljard euro.
Door het herstel van de beurzen in de daaropvolgende kwartalen werden de waardedalingen
uit het eerste kwartaal volledig hersteld.
Negatieve prijseffecten waren beduidend hoger tijdens de financiële crisis van 2008.
◆ p.m. de totale financiële activa van de particulieren bedroegen 1 466 miljard eind
december 2020.
◆ De transacties in financiële activa van de particulieren in 2020 tonen
forse investeringen voor totaal 40 miljard euro, voornamelijk door
de stijging van de deposito’s, illustratief voor het “geforceerd
sparen” van de gezinnen tijdens de lockdown.
De netto-investeringen in beleggingsfondsen en vooral in
genoteerde aandelen kwamen eveneens hoger uit in
2020 tegenover voorgaande jaren. In 2021 werd
voornamelijk geïnvesteerd in beleggingsfondsen.
-5
0
5
10
15
20
K1 K2 K3 K4 K1 K2 K3 K4 jan. feb. maart
2019 2020 2021
Financiële kwartaalrekeningen Schattingen

Deposito’s van Belgische huishoudens
52
Bron: Schema A, laatste beschikbare gegevens: mei 2021.
Groei alle deposito’s Belgische huishoudens
(Maandelijkse nettogroei, € miljoen)
Deposito’s Belgische huishoudens
(€ miljard, sector, maandelijkse gegevens)
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
jan-15
mei-15
sep-15
jan-16
mei-16
sep-16
jan-17
mei-17
sep-17
jan-18
mei-18
sep-18
jan-19
mei-19
sep-19
jan-20
mei-20
sep-20
jan-21
mei-21
Alle deposito's Spaarboekje
-2 000
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
jan-19
feb-19
mrt-19
apr-19
mei-19
jun-19
jul-19
aug-19
sep-19
okt-19
nov-19
dec-19
jan-20
feb-20
mrt-20
apr-20
mei-20
jun-20
jul-20
aug-20
sep-20
okt-20
nov-20
dec-20
jan-21
feb-21
mrt-21
apr-21
mei-21

Negatieve saldi op rekeningen / kredietkaarten
53
Negatieve saldi op rekeningen
(stock, in € miljoen, maandelijkse gegevens)
Bron: Ad hoc rapportering, Febelfin, op basis van 7 banken, laatst beschikbare
gegevens: 14 juni 2021.
Bron: Schema A, voorschotten rekening courant, laatste beschikbare gegevens: mei 2021.
Aantal rekeningen “teveel in het rood”
(aantal, in duizend, wekelijkse gegevens)
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
12/2014
07/2015
02/2016
09/2016
04/2017
11/2017
06/2018
01/2019
08/2019
03/2020
10/2020
05/2021
0
50
100
150
200
250
W
13/4
W
27/4
W
11/5
W
25/5
W
8/6
W
22/6
W
6/7
W
20/7
W
3/8
W
17/8
W
31/8
W
14/9
W
5/10
W
2/11
W
30/11
W
28/12
W
25/1
W
22/2
W
22/3
W
19/4
W
17/5
W
14/6
2020 2021

Bankkredieten van Belgische huishoudens
54
Bron: Schema A, laatste beschikbare gegevens: mei 2021.
Groeivoet
(op jaarbasis, %)
Stock
(€ miljard)
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Belgium Euro area

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
55
Bron: Centrale voor Kredieten aan Particulieren (CKP), laatste beschikbare gegevens: 1 juli 2021.
Wanbetalingsgraad
(Aantal uitstaande achterstallige contracten, % van alle uitstaande
contracten in CKP/ENR)
Nieuwe leningen
(geregistreerd bedrag per werkdag in CKP
, in € miljoenen)
Hypotheekleningen: nieuwe leningen en wanbetalingsgraad
Gemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste 12 maanden
Gemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste maand
Gemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste 10 werkdagen
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
0,8%
1,0%
1,2%
1,4%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
24/03
09/05
24/06
09/08
24/09
09/11
25/12
09/02
27/03
12/05
27/06
Aantal uitstaande achterstallige contracten
(dagelijkse gegevens, rechterschaal in duizenden)
(maandelijkse gegevens, rechterschaal in duizenden)
Wanbetalingsgraad
(dagelijkse gegevens, linkerschaal in %)
Wanbetalingsgraad
(maandelijkse gegevens, linkerschaal in %)
14/03
12/05
10/07
07/09
05/11
03/01
03/03
01/05
29/06

14/03
30/04
16/06
02/08
18/09
04/11
21/12
06/02
25/03
11/05
27/06
56
Bron: CKP, laatste beschikbare gegevens: 1 juli 2021.
1 Leningen en verkopen op afbetaling (uitgezonderd kredietopeningen).
Wanbetalingsgraad
(Aantal uitstaande achterstallige contracten, % van alle uitstaande
contracten in CKP/ENR)
Nieuwe leningen
(geregistreerd bedrag per werkdag in CKP
, in € miljoenen)
Consumentenkredieten1: nieuwe leningen en wanbetalingsgraad
Gemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste 12 maanden
Gemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste maand
Gemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste 10 werkdagen
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0
50.00 0
10 0.000
15 0.000
200.0 00
250.0 00
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
24/03
09/05
24/06
09/08
24/09
09/11
25/12
09/02
27/03
12/05
27/06
(dagelijkse gegevens, rechterschaal in duizenden)
(maandelijkse gegevens, rechterschaal in duizenden)
Wanbetalingsgraad
(dagelijkse gegevens, linkerschaal in %)
Wanbetalingsgraad
(maandelijkse gegevens, linkerschaal in %)

0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
3
10
17
24
31
7
14
21
28
5
12
19
26
2
9
16
28
30
6
13
20
27
11
25
8
22
6
20
3
17
31
14
28
14
28
11
25
9
23
6
20
mei jun jul aug sep okt nov dec jan feb mrt apr mei juni
2020 2021
◆ Aantal consumentenleningen die genieten of
genoten hebben van een moratorium zoals
geregistreerd in de Centrale voor Kredieten
aan Particulieren (op 20 juni)
◇ 9 478 leningen
◇ waarvan 9 184 leningen op afbetaling
(0,4 % van alle leningen op afbetaling)
57
Bronnen: CKP, Febelfin.
Aantal hypotheekleningen onder moratorium
Moratoria voor leningen aan gezinnen
4,4 %
Aantal hypotheekleningen met een lopend moratorium
Aantal hypotheekleningen die genieten of genoten hebben van een moratorium
zoals geregistreerd in de Centrale voor Kredieten aan Particulieren
(Febelfincijfers voor de 7 grootste banken)
0,1 %

58
Bron: Febelfin, laatste beschikbare gegevens: 14 juni 2021.
Achterstanden stabiel bij leningen aan huishoudens
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5 13/4
20/4
27/4
4/5
11/5
18/5
25/5
1/6
8/6
15/6
22/6
29/6
6/7
13/7
20/7
27/7
3/8
10/8
17/8
24/8
31/8
7/9
14/9
21/9
5/10
19/10
2/11
16/11
30/11
14/12
28/12
11/1
25/1
8/2
22/2
8/3
22/3
5/4
19/4
3/5
17/5
31/5
14/6
2020 2021
Hypothecaire leningen Consumentenkredieten
Betalingsachterstand (1-30 dagen) op hypothecaire leningen en consumentenleningen
(wekelijkse gegevens, aantal leningen met een betalingsachterstand van 1-30 dagen als % van het totaal aantal leningen)

59
Credit indicators
corporates

60
Sources: ECB, NBB.
Impact of the COVID-19 crisis on lending to non-financial
corporations (NFCs)
◆ Credit developments: (see next slides)
◇ While annual NFC growth of utilised loans had accelerated in March and April (in large part due to
drawdowns of credit lines by multinationals), it has slowed since May 2020.
◇ The annual growth rate of authorised (granted) credit is now lower than that observed before the pandemic
◇ Growth rates of authorised and utilised loans since the start of the crisis have been lower than the average
over recent years
◇ Loan arrears have been stable since May 2020
◇ Small or medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have larger proportions of loans in moratorium than larger firms
◆ According to the April 2021 Bank lending survey:
◇ Stabilised demand for loans from Belgian SMEs but declining demand from large firms in 2021Q1. Banks
expect an overall decrease in demand in 2021Q2.
◇ Unchanged credit standards, following tightened conditions in the previous quarters.
Perception of risk still exerted a tightening pressure.

61
Sources: ECB, NBB.
Firms perceived less favourable credit conditions
◆ Belgian firms reported a slight deterioration of their credit conditions in 2021Q1 compared to
2020Q4
◇ Slight decline in the assessment of the general credit conditions by firms
- Mainly due to the corporate services sector and large firms
- The balance of the opinions (favourable vs unfavourable) is next to the historical average
◇ Deterioration with respect to 2020Q4 regarding the assessment of interest rates
(source: NBB survey on credit conditions)
◆ SMEs continue to fear a significant impact on bank loan availability in 2021Q2 and 2021Q3
◇ Deterioration regarding obstacles impeding access to bank financing between October 2020 and March
2021 compared to the previous six months
- Proportion of SMEs not applying for bank credit because of possible rejection, or applying for a loan but only
receiving a limited part of the amount requested, refusing credit because the cost was too high, or having their
application rejected = 9.2 % (against 5.9 % on average in 2017-2019 and 7.2 % from April to September 2020)
◇ SMEs continue to expect a sharp deterioration in availability of bank loans over the next six months
(April-September 2021)
(source: SAFE survey, conducted between 8 March and 22 April 2021)

62
Non-financial corporations
NFC credit growth in Belgium: downward trend after the peak in
March and April 2020
(year-on-year % changes1, up to May 20212)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Belgium Euro area
Sources: European Central Bank (ECB), NBB (Balance Sheet Items), latest available data: 31 May 2021.
1 Loans granted by resident MFIs to residents, including securitised loans and loans otherwise transferred.
2 Base effect in March and April 2021 due to the high credit lines granted in March and April 2020 following the pandemic situation.

Negative contribution of multinational corporations in March & April
2021 as a result of a base effect linked to the massive drawdowns of
credit lines 12 months earlier …
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Local corporations Multinational corporations¹ Total
63
Sources: NBB (Central Corporate Credit Register), latest available data: 31 May 2021.
1 Firms with direct investment abroad or at least partially owned by foreign investors (10 % threshold), identified by SX.
Year-on-year growth rates for utilised credit
(%)
Year-on-year growth rates for authorised credit
(%)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021

-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Up to one year (or undefined) One to two years Two to five years Over five years Total
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
64
Source: NBB (Central Corporate Credit Register), latest available data: 31 May 2021.
Decomposition of YoY used corporate credit
growth by maturity
(%)
… which also translates into a negative contribution of short-term loans
Decomposition of YoY authorized corporate
credit growth by maturity
(%)

-2
-1
0
1
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
2020 2021
utilised authorised
Monthly growth of authorised and utilised loans in April low
compared to previous years
65
Source: NBB (Central Corporate Credit Register), latest available data: April 2021.
Monthly growth rates of loans for April of
previous years
(in %)
Monthly growth rates of authorised and
utilised loans
(in %)
0
1
2
3
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
April

- 6
- 4
- 2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Arts,
entertainment
and
recreation
Accommodation
and
food
service
activities
Wholesale
and
retail
trade;
repair
of
motor
vehicles
and
motorcycles
Real
estate
activities
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation
and
storage
Information
and
communication
Administrative
and
support
services
activities
Agriculture,
forestry
and
fishing
Financial
and
insurance
activities
Other
Mar 2020-Apr 2021
avg Mar-Apr 2017-2019
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Arts,
entertainment
and
recreation
Accommodation
and
food
service
activities
Wholesale
and
retail
trade;
repair
of
motor
vehicles
and
motorcycles
Real
estate
activities
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation
and
storage
Information
and
communication
Administrative
and
support
services
activities
Agriculture,
forestry
and
fishing
Financial
and
insurance
activities
Other
66
Source: NBB (Central Corporate Credit Register), latest available data: April 2021.
Note: Sectors are ordered based on the initial fall in sales due to the crisis (greater declines from right to left). “Other” contains all other sectors in the economy.
March 2020-April 2021 growth rates of
utilised loans
(in %)
March 2020-April 2021 growth rates of
authorised loans
(in %)
Growth in authorised and utilised loans since start of crisis is below
historical averages for many vulnerable sectors

60
94
55
90
44
80
17
90
46
86
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Short
Term
Long
Term
Short
Term
Long
Term
Short
Term
Long
Term
Short
Term
Long
Term
Short
Term
Long
Term
Self-employed
(1)
SMEs
(2)
Corporates
(3)
Public
(4)
Sum of
(1) to (4)
= total
67
Loan developments - weekly
NFCs in weekly reporting = Self-employed + SMEs + Corporates + Public Sector Entities
Utilisation rate (=utilised/authorized)
(last weekly observation, in %)
Evolution of total loans to NFCs
(in %)
101,8
98,6
80
85
90
95
100
105
31/05
14/06
28/06
12/07
26/07
09/08
23/08
06/09
20/09
11/10
08/11
06/12
03/01
31/01
28/02
25/03
25/04
23/05
20/06
Authorised Utilised
Total loans to NFCs represented as an index
normalized to 100 % by end May stock of loans
Source: NBB/Febelfin ad hoc weekly reporting, latest available data: 20 June 2021.
Note: Firm classification was provided by the banks on a best effort basis. It may differ from the official firm classification.

107.3
105.2
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
31/05
14/06
28/06
12/07
26/07
09/08
23/08
06/09
20/09
11/10
08/11
06/12
03/01
31/01
28/02
25/03
25/04
23/05
20/06
98.0
92.4
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
31/05
14/06
28/06
12/07
26/07
09/08
23/08
06/09
20/09
11/10
08/11
06/12
03/01
31/01
28/02
25/03
25/04
23/05
20/06
Authorised Utilised
102.7
99.7
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
31/05
14/06
28/06
12/07
26/07
09/08
23/08
06/09
20/09
11/10
08/11
06/12
03/01
31/01
28/02
25/03
25/04
23/05
20/06
Total loans to NFCs represented as an index normalized to 100 % by end May 2020 stock of loans
68
Stable loans for firms except for a decline for corporates
NFCs in weekly reporting = Self-employed + SMEs + Corporates + Public Sector Entities
Evolution of total loans to SMEs
Latest observation (authorized) 83 billion EUR
Evolution of total loans to self-employed
104.2
103.6
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108 31/05
14/06
28/06
12/07
26/07
09/08
23/08
06/09
20/09
11/10
08/11
06/12
03/01
31/01
28/02
25/03
25/04
23/05
20/06
Total loans to public sector entities
Evolution of total loans to corporates

0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
03/05
17/05
31/05
14/06
28/06
12/07
26/07
09/08
23/08
06/09
20/09
11/10
08/11
06/12
03/01
31/01
28/02
25/03
25/04
23/05
20/06
Self-employed SMEs Corporates Public
69
Number of loans in arrears or in default are not increasing (yet?)
(arrears – weekly)
Number of loans in arrears or in default
(in thousands of loans)
Amounts in arrears or in default
(in € millions)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
03/05
17/05
31/05
14/06
28/06
12/07
26/07
09/08
23/08
06/09
20/09
11/10
08/11
06/12
03/01
31/01
28/02
25/03
25/04
23/05
20/06
The observed increase for SMEs on 20th September is due to a technical correction.
The increase of arrears for the corporate segment is linked to end-of-year operational events.
The increase of arrears for the self-employed segment is linked to end-of-year operational events

5%
68%
26%
1%
Self-employed SMEs Corporates Public
8%
30%
49%
13%
70
Total loan amounts by type of counterparty
Loan amounts in moratorium by type of counterparty
SMEs are the main beneficiaries of moratorium relative to their share
of total loans
(moratorium – weekly)

71
0.04
0.66
0.15
2.14
0.44
1.6
0.0 0.06 0.14
1.5
Short Term Long Term Short Term Long Term Short Term Long Term Short Term Long Term Short Term Long Term
Self-employed
(1)
SMEs
(2)
Corporates
(3)
Public
(4)
Sum of
(1) to (4) = total
Long term loans are the main type of loans in moratorium
(moratorium – weekly)
% of exposures in moratorium
(last weekly observation)

72
Bankruptcies and
new business registrations

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2020 2021
73
Source: Statbel, latest available data: 27 June 2021.
1 Declaration of bankruptcy by the company court.
2 Although the moratorium on filings for bankruptcies came to an end on 17 June 2020, the tax administration and the ONSS maintains a de facto moratorium on tax and social security debts. Other measures taken were
the deferment of payment of the annual company contribution (until 31 October 2020) and the social security contributions (until 15 December 2020), and the reintroduction of a temporary suspension of seizures. On
Friday 6 November 2020, a new moratorium on bankruptcies until 31 January 2021 was approved towards businesses forced to close temporarily and a further extension to 31 December for the payment of the annual
company contribution. For employers struggling with the crisis, the ONSS agrees to an exceptional amicable payment plan with a maximum duration of 24 months for the settlement of sums due for the year 2020
(a.o. holiday pay for the 2019 financial year, the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters of 2020). At the level of the FPS Finance, companies in difficulty as a result of the coronavirus can apply for support measures until
31 March 2021 by means of a payment plan, exemption from interest on arrears and remission of fines for non-payment regarding several taxes. A 15% reduction in the withholding tax for temporary
unemployment and the tax exemption for overtime pay in crucial sectors, are applicable until 30 June 2021. In compensation for the end of the moratorium a new judicial reorganisation procedure (JRP)
has been put in place. The procedure is streamlined and no longer requires publication in the Moniteur belge, which allows mediators to reach agreements on claims in complete discretion;
JRPs by amicable agreement will be encouraged through a tax exemption which has so far only been applied to JRPs obtained by court order.
(# by activity)
Bankruptcies
(# by region)
The number of bankruptcies1 remains flat in June 2021 …
… and lower than one year ago (which coincides with the end of the 1st moratorium on bankruptcies²)
It remains by far lower than in 2019 since several provisions adopted to support businesses are still in place2
◆ About 96 % of bankruptcies are within the ‘0 to 9 workers’
company size class
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2020 2021
VLA BRU WAL 2019 Belgium 2020 Belgium Transport & other services
Trade
Industries & energy
Hotel & restaurant
Building
Agriculture & fisheries
(1 to 27)

74
(# by activity)
Bankruptcies1
(# by region)
2021: weekly bankruptcies figures slightly rebounded the last three
weeks of June …
… but remain well below the 2015-19 average
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
28
Sept
-
4
5-11
12-18
19-25
26
Oct-
1
2-8
9-15
16-22
23-29
30
Nov
-
6
7-13
14-20
21-27
28
Dec
-
3
4-10
11-17
18-24
25-31
1-7
8-14
15-21
22-28
1-7
8-14
15-21
22-28
29
Mar
-
4
5-11
12-18
19-25
26
Apr
-
2
3-9
10-16
17-23
24-30
31-6
7
Jun
-
13
14-20
21-27
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2020 2021
VLA BRU WAL Avg 2015-19 Belgium
◆ Since August 31st, 2020, the number of bankruptcies remains 38 % below the
2015-19 average while in August, declared bankruptcies were close to it
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
28
Sep
-
4
5-11
12-18
19-25
26
Oct-
1
2-8
9-15
16-22
23-29
30
Nov
-
6
7-13
14-20
21-27
28
Dec
-
3
4-10
11-17
18-24
25-31
1-7
8-14
15-21
22-28
1-7
8-14
15-21
22-28
29
Mar
-
4
5-11
12-18
19-25
26-2
3
May
-
9
10-16
17-23
24-30
31-6
7
Jun
-
13
14-20
21-27
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2020 2021
Transport & other services
Trade
Industries & energy
Hotel & restaurant
Building
Agriculture & fisheries
Source: Statbel, latest available data: 27 June 2021.
1 Declaration of bankruptcy by the company court.

75
New businesses1
Business startups rise in April according to seasonal patterns …
… even stronger than in April 2019
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
2020 2021
VLA BRU WAL Foreign Unknown 2019 Belgium 2020 Belgium
Source: Statbel, latest available data: April 2021.
1 Business creation as measured by entities registering (first registrations & re-registrations) as a VAT unit in the Crossroads Bank for Enterprises.

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
VIX VSTOXX
Financial markets strengthen while Fed shifts tone
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
04/2018
07/2018
10/2018
01/2019
04/2019
07/2019
10/2019
01/2020
04/2020
07/2020
10/2020
01/2021
04/2021
07/2021
BEL 20 Euro Stoxx 50 FTSE 100 S&P 500
◆ Overall, stock markets were supported by the reopening of economies, the vaccine roll-out and continued policy support (including agreement on
the US infrastructure plan).
◆ However, markets (temporarily) fell when the Fed signaled that policy rates might rise sooner than previously anticipated.
◆ Uncertainties remain around the evolution of the Delta-variant (including its impact on tourism), consumer spending, the persistence of supply-side
bottlenecks, the inflation outlook, and the timing of the normalization of US monetary policy.
77
Source: Refinitiv, latest available data: 1 July 2021.
Major stock market indices
(01/2018=100)
Implied stock market volatility
(in %)

-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180 07/2019
08/2019
09/2019
10/2019
11/2019
12/2019
01/2020
02/2020
03/2020
04/2020
05/2020
06/2020
07/2020
08/2020
09/2020
10/2020
11/2020
12/2020
01/2021
02/2021
03/2021
04/2021
05/2021
06/2021
07/2021
Crude Oil WTI Copper Gold Metals index
◆ Industrial metal and gold prices fell after the Fed’s
June meeting.
◇ Until then, industrial metal and gold prices were
supported (in part) by a week dollar and the
inflation outlook.
◇ Industrial metal prices remain elevated by historical
standards, supported by the recovery and the
transition towards a greener economy.
◆ In contrast, oil prices increased further, to above $70
per barrel.
◇ Oil demand is recovering with the reopening of
economies
◇ OPEC+ group still currently limiting supply and
slowdown in oil-investment could constrain
supply in the medium-run
78
Source: Datastream, latest available data: 1 July 2021.
Note: the metals index includes aluminium, copper, lead, iron ore, tin, nickel and zinc.
Commodity price indices
(Oil prices in $/barrel, other indexes are normalized: 01/07/2019 = 100)
Oil prices sustained by growing demand

0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
01/2018
04/2018
07/2018
10/2018
01/2019
04/2019
07/2019
10/2019
01/2020
04/2020
07/2020
10/2020
01/2021
04/2021
07/2021
EA 5y5y US 5y5y
Global sovereign 10-year bond yield rise halted
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
01/2018
04/2018
07/2018
10/2018
01/2019
04/2019
07/2019
10/2019
01/2020
04/2020
07/2020
10/2020
01/2021
04/2021
07/2021
Belgium Germany United States
◆ Longer-term market-based inflation expectations declined: markets view the current increase in inflation as temporary.
◆ In this context, the 10-year US government bond yields fell in June. However, yields spiked temporarily when the Fed signalled that policy rates
might rise sooner than previously anticipated.
◆ In the euro area, 10-year yields remain low (with ECB’s renewed commitments to preserve favourable financing conditions and subdued inflation
expectations)
79
1 Derived from inflation-linked swap rates. “Ay By” refers to expected inflation over a period of A years B years ahead. Five-days moving averages.
10-year government bond yields
(in %)
Market based inflation expectations1
(in %)

Corporate spreads remain close to pre-pandemic levels
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
07/2019
09/2019
11/2019
01/2020
03/2020
05/2020
07/2020
09/2020
11/2020
01/2021
03/2021
05/2021
07/2021
US BBB Euro BBB US BB Euro BB
◆ The gradual reopening of economies, the vaccine
roll-out and continued policy support contribute
to narrowing corporate spreads
80
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch from Datastream, latest available data: 1 July 2021.
Corporate bond spreads (€ or $ denominated)
(Difference vis-à-vis sovereign, basis points)

0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
01/2018
03/2018
05/2018
07/2018
09/2018
11/2018
01/2019
03/2019
05/2019
07/2019
09/2019
11/2019
01/2020
03/2020
05/2020
07/2020
09/2020
11/2020
01/2021
03/2021
05/2021
07/2021
Belgium Spain France Italy Netherlands
Sovereign bond spreads remain stable
◆ Following a eurozone bond sell-off in May, IT spread
widened while also German yields increased. However,
the trend reversed following communications by ECB
officials, signalling that monetary support measures
will remain in place until the recovery is secured, and
better-than-expected economic data.
◆ NB: Apparent rise of BE spreads in early 2021 and of
FR and NL spreads in April 2021 are due to change of
benchmark.
81
10-year spreads vis-à-vis Germany (EA)
(%)

83
Composite mobility indicator1
(% change from pre-COVID-19 baseline; 7-day moving average)
Mobility is close to pre-COVID-19 levels in most advanced economies
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40 22/02/2020
08/03/2020
23/03/2020
07/04/2020
22/04/2020
07/05/2020
22/05/2020
06/06/2020
21/06/2020
06/07/2020
21/07/2020
05/08/2020
20/08/2020
04/09/2020
19/09/2020
04/10/2020
19/10/2020
03/11/2020
18/11/2020
03/12/2020
18/12/2020
02/01/2021
17/01/2021
01/02/2021
16/02/2021
03/03/2021
18/03/2021
02/04/2021
17/04/2021
02/05/2021
17/05/2021
01/06/2021
16/06/2021
01/07/2021
Netherlands France Germany Italy UK US Japan India Belgium
Sources: Google, Apple. Construction of mobility composite inspired by Capital Economics.
1 Composite indicator is a simple average of changes in Google mobility report scores for categories “retail and recreation”, “workplaces”, and “transit stations”, and changes in Apple routing requests for
driving. Pre-COVID-19 baseline is the median value (for the corresponding day of the week) of each sub-indicator over the period January – 6 February 2020. Latest values are for 1 July 2021.

84
More stringent lockdowns are associated with
greater reductions in people’s actual mobility1 …
… and changes in actual mobility are strongly
correlated with GDP growth, over and above the
impact of lockdown stringency or COVID deaths2
Hit on GDP growth: it’s actual mobility!
Actual reductions in mobility are strongly related to GDP losses, and this goes beyond the effect of containment
stringency : effective enforcement and self-compliance arguably matter.
Sources: OECD, Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), Google, Our World in Data (OWID).
1 Country sample consists of 46 OECD and major non-OECD countries over 2020Q1-2021Q1. Each dot represents a country-quarter. Oxford Stringency index codifies 9 types of containment measures.
Index levels take values between 0 (no restrictions) and 100 (hard nationwide lockdown). Google mobility report scores for category “retail and recreation”. Level scores indicate percentage deviation
from pre-COVID baseline. China is excluded due to lack of mobility data.
2 Y-axis represents partial residuals from regression of real GDP growth on lockdown stringency, COVID deaths and quarter dummies.
BE 2020Q2
BE 2020Q3
BE 2020Q4
BE 2021Q1
BE 2020Q1
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
Stringency-corrected
real
GDP
growth
(qoq
%)
Google mobility retail/recreation (qoq change)
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
BE 2020Q1
BE 2020Q2
BE 2020Q3
BE 2020Q4
BE 2021Q1
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Google
mobility
retail/recreation
(qoq
change)
Oxford stringency index (qoq change)

85
Source: Refinitiv.
Service sector PMIs
(diffusion index; 50+ signals expected expansion)
Manufacturing PMIs
(diffusion index; 50+ signals expected expansion)
Sentiment continues to improve, now also in services
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
12/2019
01/2020
02/2020
03/2020
04/2020
05/2020
06/2020
07/2020
08/2020
09/2020
10/2020
11/2020
12/2020
01/2021
02/2021
03/2021
04/2021
05/2021
06/2021
Euro area US Japan China (Caixin) UK
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12/2019
01/2020
02/2020
03/2020
04/2020
05/2020
06/2020
07/2020
08/2020
09/2020
10/2020
11/2020
12/2020
01/2021
02/2021
03/2021
04/2021
05/2021
06/2021

86
Euro area: extra-EA-19 goods export volumes2
(% change yoy)
World goods trade volumes1
(average of exports and imports, % change yoy)
International trade: Above pre-COVID-19 levels and increased
momentum
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1/2018
3/2018
5/2018
7/2018
9/2018
11/2018
1/2019
3/2019
5/2019
7/2019
9/2019
11/2019
1/2020
3/2020
5/2020
7/2020
9/2020
11/2020
1/2021
3/2021
5/2021
World Advanced economies
Emerging economies Euro area
China
Sources: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), Eurostat, Refinitiv.
1 Latest available data: April 2021.
2 Latest available data: March 2021.
Chinese exports boosted by demand for
COVID-19 related products, incl. PPE,
medical equipment, work-from-home
electronics.
Favourable
base effects
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1/2018
4/2018
7/2018
10/2018
1/2019
4/2019
7/2019
10/2019
1/2020
4/2020
7/2020
10/2020
1/2021
4/2021
Consumer goods (excl. transport eqp.)
Intermediate goods
Capital goods
Brexit
effect

87
Real GDP forecasts for 20211
(%)
Latest IMF forecasts for 2021
World Economic Outlook: “Managing divergent recoveries“
Revisions to IMF forecasts for 2021 since
January reflect:
◆ Acceleration of mass vaccination
campaigns that could allow for faster
withdrawal of containment measures
and resumption of economic activity in
second half of year
◆ Announcements of large additional
fiscal policy support in a few major
economies (most notably the US)
◆ Smaller adverse impact on economic
activity of containment measures,
compared to the early stages of
pandemic
◆ Assumption that new virus outbreaks
remain contained, vaccine rollout
proceeds smoothly, and financing
conditions remain accommodative
Sources: IMF, Consensus Economics.
1 IMF WEO January 2021 does not include forecasts for Belgium and the Netherlands.
0
2
4
6
8
10
World Euro
area
DE FR IT ES NL BE UK US JP CN
IMF WEO Apr 2021 IMF WEO Jan 2021
Consensus Apr 2021 (survey mean) Consensus Jan 2021 (survey mean)

88
World GDP1
(index, 2019Q4 = 100)
World economy
Uncertainty remains around baseline projections
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 2020 2021 2022
OECD Nov 2019 OECD Dec 2020 OECD May 2021 baseline May 2021 downside May 2021 upside
World GDP
2.5% below
pre-virus path
Source: OECD
1 Dashed lines represent upside scenario (faster vaccination progress boosting business and consumer confidence) and downside scenario (vaccine production and deployment not fast enough to
stop virus transmission or prevent emergence of new virus variants, leading to weaker business and consumer confidence) around baseline OECD (May 2021) projections.

89
Medium-term output losses1
(% difference in real GDP four years after crisis and anticipated GDP prior to the crisis)
World economy
IMF expects overall scars from COVID-19 recession to be less than from GFC, but with poorer
countries hurt relatively more
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
World Advanced economies Emerging market economies Low-income economies
Global financial crisis COVID-19
Source: IMF.
1 For the COVID-19 crisis, WEO April 2021 vintage forecast for 2024 is compared to forecast from January 2020 vintage. For the global financial crisis April 2013 vintage estimate for 2012 is
compared to forecast from October 2007 vintage. World sample consists of 178 economies.

90
Selected European countries: Real GDP1
(index, 2019Q4 = 100)
Major blocs: Real GDP1
(index, 2019Q4 = 100)
Recovery across countries: I do it my way …
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 2020 2021
Euro area
US
China
Japan
Consensus forecast (2/7/2021, average of last 8+ revisions)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 2020 2021
Germany
France
Italy
UK
Consensus forecast (2/7/2021, average of last 8+ revisions)
Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Consensus Economics, Destatis, Eurostat, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE), Instituto Nazionale di Statistica (Istat),
Japanese Cabinet Office (JP CAO), National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), Office for National Statistics (ONS), Refinitiv.
1 Consensus levels implied from forecasted yoy changes.

91
Sources: European Commission, ECB, Consensus Economics, Refinitiv.
Freightos Baltic container
shipping index
(US$)
Manufacturing PMIs –
Supplier delivery times
(diffusion index)
Recovery is leading to supply shortages and upward price pressures
Temporary or more persistent?
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
01/2016
07/2016
01/2017
07/2017
01/2018
07/2018
01/2019
07/2019
01/2020
07/2020
01/2021
07/2021
Euro area US
Japan China (Caixin)
UK
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
01/2018
04/2018
07/2018
10/2018
01/2019
04/2019
07/2019
10/2019
01/2020
04/2020
07/2020
10/2020
01/2021
04/2021
07/2021
Global
China/East Asia to Northern Europe
China/East Asia to Mediterranean
Northern Europe to China/East Asia
Mediterranean to China/East Asia
Euro area HICP inflation
(overall index, % change yoy)
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
01/2016
07/2016
01/2017
07/2017
01/2018
07/2018
01/2019
07/2019
01/2020
07/2020
01/2021
07/2021
01/2022
07/2022
01/2023
07/2023
01/2024
Inflation outturns
ECB forecast June 2021
Consensus forecast (2/7/2021,
average of last 8+ revisions)
Supplier
delivery times
lengthening

92
Source: IMF.
1 Data are from 13 advanced economies with varying coverage during 1990Q1-2020Q3. Lines are averages across recession types. For the great lockdown, quarter 0 is 2019Q4 for all countries; for
the global financial crisis, quarter 0 is country-specific peak of real GDP during 2007-2008; Other recessions are country-specific episodes of at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth
during 1990-2006 and 2009-2019.
Firms: Zombification or creative destruction?
Too early to tell, as temporary measures protect against destruction
Advanced economies: Number of bankruptcies1
(index, last pre-recession quarter = 100)
Decline in bankruptcies during great lockdown driven by:
◆ Transfers to firms, credit guarantees and funding-for-
lending programmes
◆ Implementation of moratoria on bankruptcy filings in
some countries
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Recession quarter
Great Lockdown, 2020
Global financial crisis, 2007–2008
Other recessions

93
NBB online surveys
in cooperation with the
Microsoft Innovation Center

94
NBB Survey on impact on households’ income
7-24 May
Press release
Perscommuniqué
Communiqué de presse

95
NBB Survey on changes in consumer patterns
14 – 21 July
Perscommuniqué
Communiqué de presse

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