1. John Craig McDougall
44 Wilberforce Street
Miramar
Wellington 6022
Mobile: 027 375 9235
E-Mail: john@mcdougalls.co.nz
Linkedin:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-mcdougall-30a97a9a
Summary
John McDougall specialises in the application of quantitative methods that inform policy advice, organisation
reviews, regional economic development, resource management, and marketing planning. As a director,
original partner and consultant of strategic planning, social and market research firm McDermott Miller
Limited for some 24 years he has led and participated in a wide range of evaluation and research projects.
John’s speciality is the development of market forecasting and simulation models that incorporate data
gathered in custom market and social surveys with clients’ administrative data and secondary statistics.
Work History
Director Forecasting
McDermott Miller Limited 1992 - March 2016
Responsibilities  Operational manager of McDermott Miller’s Market Research Unit with
responsibility for delivery of social and market survey projects, from
questionnaire and sampling design through to analysis and reporting.
 Primary responsibility for regional economic analysis, market analysis,
and forecasting.
 Developing, applying and maintaining McDermott Miller’s regional and
sectoral market and forecasting models.
Achievements  Evaluation of the economics and markets of programmes and projects.
Includes evaluation of water augmentation schemes, events, museums,
shopping centres, transport infrastructure, tourism and recreation projects.
 Performance measurement in organisation reviews. Responsible for
identifying relevant performance financial and non-financial indicators and
using them to assess the performance of organisations, including
benchmarking. Reports have included recommendations on upgrading
KPIs in the organisation under review.
 Policy-related research, analysis and report writing. A recent example is
survey-based research for MBIE into the costs of employment disputes to
employers and employees, and to obtain insights into the benefits of
effective resolution of these disputes.
 Market research including design of sampling procedures, questionnaire
design, data analysis and interpretation of survey findings. Includes

2. 2
designing surveys where the survey data is required as input to the
market models used for demand forecasting.
 Using multi-criteria analysis to evaluate development options; involving
summarising social, environmental, economic and cultural performance
criteria in a Planning Balance Sheet and evaluating it to identify a
preferred option.
 Applying quantitative methods to regional economic development,
resource management and urban planning, retail development planning,
tourism research, modeling community preferences and economic
analysis of development projects.
 Economic valuation of heritage and other non-market goods using stated-
preference methods, for example designed and analysed a survey to
value the non-market benefits and costs of a proposed road to bypass the
Kerikeri Mission Station.
 Developing and applying financial, economic and statistical models,
including the following:
o Micro-simulation model to evaluate the benefits of New Zealand Fire
Service fire-risk management interventions in terms of reduced
impacts of fire on “at risk” households.
o Event model to evaluate the financial and economic impact of cultural
and other leisure events and to determine priorities for council
investment in them. Has applied the model, with inputs from audience
surveys, in economic assessments of major events.
o Input-output based models of regional and city/district economies to
evaluate economic and employment impacts of development scenarios.
o Tourism models to forecast tourist visitor nights, expenditure, and
value-added impacts of visitors at the regional or district level, under a
range of tourism investment or national tourist arrivals scenarios.
o Forecasting population and household growth at regional or district
level under alternative economic scenarios.
o Forecasting demand for commercial floorspace and land under
alternative population and development scenarios.
o Market forecasting models incorporating data gathered in custom
market and social surveys and data from other sources, including
Statistics NZ and council household and population forecasts, QV
property data, and administrative data.
o Model to project the financial returns to investment in upgrading
under-utilised commercial buildings.
o Financial model for projecting annual cash flows and calculating
performance metrics for a regional council’s property investments.
o Regional and city retail simulation models to evaluate proposed retail
developments. Outputs include projected performance of new
developments and distributional impacts on performance of existing
retail centres.
Consultant/Analyst
McDermott Miller Group 1986-1992
Responsibilities  Initially carrying out analysis and model development in support of
McDermott Miller Group principals.

3. 3
 In 1988 helped establish the Wellington office of McDermott Miller Group
(reconstituted as a new company McDermott Miller Limited in 1992) and
progressed to a consulting role.
Achievements  Analytical support to the Independent Review Group evaluating the
structure and operations of the Wellington City Council.
 System for estimating and forecasting regional production of goods, then
to size and forecast the inter-regional freight market.
 Investigation of the economic and environmental costs, benefits and risks
of establishing a scenic highway through a world heritage park in New
Zealand's South Westland.
 Development, of the McDermott Miller NZTP Tourism Activity Model to
help assess implications of increased international arrival numbers on the
economic, social, and physical environment in New Zealand.
Scientist
Ministry of Energy 1984-1985
Responsibilities  Scientist in Energy Planning team
 Co-ordinating the planning of future electricity supply with other energy
sectors.
 Drafting responses to ministerial correspondence.
Achievements  Drafting the electricity section of the annual Energy Plan
Skills
• Social and market research
• Stakeholder consultation and interviewing
• Organisation performance measurement
• Regional economic modeling and forecasting
• Preparing research briefs
• Market analysis and modeling
• Tourism forecasting
Use of the following tools:
• Multi-dimensional OLAP modeling
• SPSS
• Sawtooth Software SSI - developing HTML surveys, publishing them to web, and managing responses
• MS Excel, Word, Project, PowerPoint, Visio
Qualifications
MSc(Hons) in Resource Management 1984
(Includes 3 post-graduate papers in Operations Research)
University of Canterbury and Lincoln College
BSc in Operations Research 1982
University of Canterbury
Interests
Social and family music making, tango
Referees
Available on request