1. Mobile landscape A snapshot for 2010

2. Why mobile? Why now?

3. Also, why “snapshot”?

4. A little context helps…

5. But First…

6. What is a computer?

7. What is a computer? Input

8. What is a computer? Input Processor / Storage

9. What is a computer? Input Processor / Storage Output

10. What is a computer? Input Processor / Storage OutputThink about that…

11. Computing Power

12. 1995 Power Macintosh 7200/75 $1700 75MHz PowerPC 601 Processor 16 MB RAM

13. 2010 iPhone 3Gs $500 600MHz ARM Processor 256 MB RAM

14. Data Transfer Rates

15. My Facebook Page is 210K…

16. My Facebook Page is 210K 56 kilobits per second 30 seconds to download 56K Modem

17. My Facebook Page is 210K 56 kilobits per second 30 seconds to download 128 – 384 kilobits per second (moving) 4 to 8 seconds to download 56K Modem 3G Network

18. What’s that mean?

20. Cheaper

21. PortableWhat’s that mean?

22. The 5th Computing Cycle!

23. Um, what were the other four? The 5th Computing Cycle!

24. Glad you asked! The 5th Computing Cycle!

25. The 5 cycles of computing

26. The 5 cycles of computing Mainframe Computing – 1960s

27. The 5 cycles of computing Mainframe Computing – 1960s Mini Computing – 1970s

28. The 5 cycles of computing Mainframe Computing – 1960s Mini Computing – 1970s Personal Computing – 1980s

29. The 5 cycles of computing Mainframe Computing – 1960s Mini Computing – 1970s Personal Computing – 1980s Desktop Internet Computing – 1990s

30. The 5 cycles of computing Mainframe Computing – 1960s Mini Computing – 1970s Personal Computing – 1980s Desktop Internet Computing – 1990s Mobile Internet Computing – 2000s

31. The 5 cycles of computing Mainframe Computing – 1960s (1 Million units) Mini Computing – 1970s (10 Million units) Personal Computing – 1980s (100 Million units) Desktop Internet Computing – 1990s (1 Billion units) Mobile Internet Computing – 2000s (10 Billion units) Reduce Usage Friction Via Better Processor Power + Improved User Interface + Smaller Form Factor + Expanded Services + Lower Prices = 10X More Devices

32. Why is this happening?

33. A Perfect Storm of Convergence

34. A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point”

35. A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point” Video Adoption Rates

36. A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point” Video Adoption Rates VoIP Technology

37. A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point” Video Adoption Rates VoIP Technology The Cloud

38. A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point” Video Adoption Rates VoIP Technology The Cloud Social Networks as Platforms Connecting Consumers

39. A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection Point” Video Adoption Rates VoIP Technology The Cloud Social Networks as Platforms Connecting Consumers Impressive Mobile Devices

40. “Regarding the pace of change, we believe more users will likely connect to the Internet via mobile devices than desktop PCs within 5 years” - Morgan Stanley

41. 3G Networks

42. 3G Defined

43. 3G Defined 3G Stands for 3rd-generation. Analog cellular phones were the first generation. Digital phones marked the second generation (2G).

44. 3G Defined 3G Stands for 3rd-generation. Analog cellular phones were the first generation. Digital phones marked the second generation (2G). 3G is loosely defined, but generally includes high data speeds, always-on data access, and greater voice capacity.

45. 3G Defined 3G Stands for 3rd-generation. Analog cellular phones were the first generation. Digital phones marked the second generation (2G). 3G is loosely defined, but generally includes high data speeds, always-on data access, and greater voice capacity. The high data speeds are possibly the most prominent feature, and certainly the most hyped. They enable such advanced features as live, streaming video.

46. 2010 ‘Mainstream’ Inflection

47. 2010 ‘Mainstream’ Inflection

48. 3G Growth

49. 3G Growth Concentrated in Developed Markets

50. 3G Growth Concentrated in Developed Markets USA Now leading in Users & Innovation

51. 3G Growth Concentrated in Developed Markets USA Now leading in Users & Innovation Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009

52. 3G Growth Concentrated in Developed Markets USA Now leading in Users & Innovation Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009 103,110,000 US Subscribers 94,813,000 Japanese Subscribers

53. 3G Growth Concentrated in Developed Markets USA Now leading in Users & Innovation Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009 103,110,000 US Subscribers 94,813,000 Japanese Subscribers Japanese Penetration = 87%

54. 3G Growth Concentrated in Developed Markets USA Now leading in Users & Innovation Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009 103,110,000 US Subscribers 94,813,000 Japanese Subscribers Japanese Penetration = 87% US Penetration = 37%

55. Other Wireless Options…

56. Other Wireless Options… GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold

57. Other Wireless Options… GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments

58. Other Wireless Options… GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008

59. Other Wireless Options… GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008Estimate 60% of iPhone/iTouch usage may be on Wi-Fi providing a crucial (and 10X faster) offload to stressed 3G networks

60. Other Wireless Options… GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008Estimate 60% of iPhone/iTouch usage may be on Wi-Fi providing a crucial (and 10X faster) offload to stressed 3G networks 1.3B Bluetooth enabled devices shipped in 2008

61. Other Wireless Options… GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008Estimate 60% of iPhone/iTouch usage may be on Wi-Fi providing a crucial (and 10X faster) offload to stressed 3G networks 1.3B Bluetooth enabled devices shipped in 20082B+ Bluetooth devices currently in use

62. Video Adoption Rates

63. Consumers Have Voted

64. Consumers Have Voted 466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)

65. Consumers Have Voted 466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y) 42 MM Hulu US Users (+77% Y/Y)

66. Consumers Have Voted 466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y) 42 MM Hulu US Users (+77% Y/Y) 167 Online Video USA Users (+14% Y/Y)109B Minutes of Video Watched (+169% Y/Y)

67. Consumers Have Voted 466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y) 42 MM Hulu US Users (+77% Y/Y) 167 Online Video USA Users (+14% Y/Y)109B Minutes of Video Watched (+169% Y/Y) 54 MM Global Internet-enabled set top boxes (Xbox360, Sony PS3, TiVo, Slingbox, Vudu, Roku…) (+59% Y/Y) – Transforming TVs into internet streaming / on-demand video terminals

68. Video Driving Growth

69. Video Driving Growth Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times

70. Video Driving Growth Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic took

71. Video Driving Growth Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic tookThe internet grew from 1 petabyte to 1 exabyte in 14 years. Mobile will do the same in seven.

72. Video Driving Growth Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic tookThe internet grew from 1 petabyte to 1 exabyte in 14 years. Mobile will do the same in seven. Almost 64% of the world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013

73. Video Driving Growth Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic tookThe internet grew from 1 petabyte to 1 exabyte in 14 years. Mobile will do the same in seven. Almost 64% of the world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013Mobile video has the highest growth rate ever measured by the “Cisco VNI forecast”.

74. Video Driving Growth Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013

75. Video Driving Growth Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013A single high-end phone like the iPhone/Android generates more data traffic than 30 basic-feature cell phones. A laptop aircard generates more data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phones.

76. Video Driving Growth Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013A single high-end phone like the iPhone/Android generates more data traffic than 30 basic-feature cell phones. A laptop aircard generates more data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phones. Latin America will have the strongest growth of any region (166% CAGR)

77. VoIP (Voice Over IP)

78. Whither Skype?

79. Whither Skype? If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World

80. Whither Skype? If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World 521MM registered Users (+41% Y/Y)

81. Whither Skype? If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World 521MM registered Users (+41% Y/Y) 8% of Cross-Border Calling Minutes

82. Whither Skype? If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World 521MM registered Users (+41% Y/Y) 8% of Cross-Border Calling Minutes

83. The Cloud

84. The Growing Cloud…

85. The Growing Cloud… Cloud computing is Internet- ("cloud-") based development and use of computer technology ("computing"). In concept, it is a paradigm shift whereby details are abstracted from the users who no longer need knowledge of, expertise in, or control over the technology infrastructure "in the cloud" that supports them. Cloud computing describes a new supplement, consumption and delivery model for IT services based on Internet, and it typically involves the provision of dynamically scalable and often virtualized resources as a service over the Internet.

86. The Growing Cloud… Cloud computing is Internet- ("cloud-") based development and use of computer technology ("computing"). In concept, it is a paradigm shift whereby details blah blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah

87. You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive

88. You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me

89. You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed

90. You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed Some Popular Categories of Clouds

91. You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed Some Popular Categories of Clouds Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS)

92. You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed Some Popular Categories of Clouds Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS) Utility Computing

93. You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed Some Popular Categories of Clouds Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS) Utility Computing Platforms (Google App Engine, MS Azure, Amazon)

94. You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live Followed Some Popular Categories of Clouds Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS) Utility Computing Platforms (Google App Engine, MS Azure, Amazon) My House has a Cloud

95. Social Networks as Platforms

96. Facebook = 500MM + Application Downloads

97. Facebook Mobile…

98. Facebook Mobile… There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices

99. Facebook Mobile… There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices. People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users.

100. Facebook Mobile… There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices. People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users. There are more than 180 mobile operators in 60 countries working to deploy and promote Facebook mobile products.

101. Facebook Mobile… There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices. People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users. There are more than 180 mobile operators in 60 countries working to deploy and promote Facebook mobile products. Facebook is the Number One free iPhone App.

102. Facebook + Apple iPhone Driving independent / overlapping innovation / Usage in Social Networking + Mobile Platforms

103. Facebook + Apple iPhone Driving independent / overlapping innovation / Usage in Social Networking + Mobile Platforms Facebook iPhone/iTouch 430MM Users (+137% Y/Y) 350K+ Apps 500MM+ Downloads 57MM Users (+163% Y/Y) 100K+ Apps 2B+ Downloads Social Networking Mobile

104. Impressive Mobile Devices

105. Impressive Mobile Devices “Apple’s iPhone + iTouch + App Store Launches Over the Past 2.5 Years Created the Spark for Mobile Internet Liftoff as Microsoft’s Launch of Windows 3.0 did for the PC in 1990 and the Netscape Browser (and its IPO) did for the desktop Internet in 1995” - Morgan Stanley

106. How Big?

107. How Big? Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in History

108. How Big? Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in HistoryGreat UI + Developer Tools + Hardware + Distribution + Powerful Connectivity (3G + WiFi)Nintendo Wii, Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, Apple iPod, RIM Blackberry

109. How Big? Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in HistoryGreat UI + Developer Tools + Hardware + Distribution + Powerful Connectivity (3G + WiFi)Nintendo Wii, Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, Apple iPod, RIM Blackberry Apple iPhone / iTouch = 2B App Downloads

110. How Big? Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in HistoryGreat UI + Developer Tools + Hardware + Distribution + Powerful Connectivity (3G + WiFi)Nintendo Wii, Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, Apple iPod, RIM Blackberry Apple iPhone / iTouch = 2B App DownloadsAbout 35 per UserGames, Books, Entertainment Lead

111. How Big?

112. Top Free Apps

113. iPhone + Android Mobile Internet Usage Much Higher than Shipment Share

114. iPhone + Android Mobile Internet Usage Much Higher than Shipment Share High Probability of On-Going Share Gains Based on Consumer Voting

115. Most / Best Apps Win!

116. Yeah, so?

117. “This is a bit like looking at the emergence of the railroads in the 1800s and saying, ‘I have no interest in going to Chicago. What’s the big Deal?’” - Joshua Michele-Ross Yeah, so?

118. Coordination Replaces Planning

119. Coordination Replaces Planning Real-time Communications (Twitter)

120. Coordination Replaces Planning Real-time Communications (Twitter) Just-in-Time Coordination over planning

121. Coordination Replaces Planning Real-time Communications (Twitter) Just-in-Time Coordination over planning More efficient, more flexible

122. Coordination Replaces Planning Real-time Communications (Twitter) Just-in-Time Coordination over planning More efficient, more flexible Think Army, “Situation at hand”

123. Coordination Replaces Planning Real-time Communications (Twitter) Just-in-Time Coordination over planning More efficient, more flexible Think Army, “Situation at hand” Spontaneous gathering, loosely coordinated agents in constant contact

124. Coordination Replaces Planning Real-time Communications (Twitter) Just-in-Time Coordination over planning More efficient, more flexible Think Army, “Situation at hand” Spontaneous gathering, loosely coordinated agents in constant contact Increased role for employees

125. More than Phones & Computers

126. More than Phones & Computers Data Gathering devices

127. More than Phones & Computers Data Gathering devices Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware (Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.

128. More than Phones & Computers Data Gathering devices Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware (Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer. Environmental Sensor

129. More than Phones & Computers Data Gathering devices Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware (Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer. Environmental Sensor Not only connected, but actively accepting input

130. More than Phones & Computers Data Gathering devices Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware (Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer. Environmental Sensor Not only connected, but actively accepting input Track our own behavior (Monitor our health)

131. The New Laptop

132. The New Laptop Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware

133. The New Laptop Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware Keyboards and palm sized projectors coming soon

134. The New Laptop Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware Keyboards and palm sized projectors coming soon Increases in processing power and storage capacity

135. The New Laptop Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware Keyboards and palm sized projectors coming soon Increases in processing power and storage capacity Mobile devices will become the de facto standard gear for knowledge work

136. The New Marketplace

137. The New Marketplace The Long Tail (Micropayments)

138. The New Marketplace The Long Tail (Micropayments) The moment of need or impulse

139. The New Marketplace The Long Tail (Micropayments) The moment of need or impulse Empowered Customers

140. The New Marketplace The Long Tail (Micropayments) The moment of need or impulse Empowered Customers Peer-to-Peer exchanges

141. Know This Person

142. It’s You. Know This Person