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Assessing Plastic Losses Across the Global Value Chain
- 1. DTU Management22 June 2020 Losses of plastics to the environment Morten W Ryberg Group for Quantitative Sustainability Assessment (QSA) DTU Management, Technical University of Denmark 1
- 2. DTU Management22 June 2020 Quantitative Sustainability Assessment (QSA) What we do • Focus on development of methods for assessing environmental performance and sustainability of human activities – nations, cities, industries and organizations, products and services • Always with a focus on supporting robust and evidence-based decisions • Among leading groups in development of life-cycle assessment (LCA) methods for supporting environmentally sound decisions, e.g.: – Supporting the EU commission on LCA related aspects – Effects of chemicals on human health and environment (USEtox) – Assessing sustainability of industries relative to Planetary Boundaries or UN SDGs 2
- 3. DTU Management22 June 2020 Estimating plastic losses across the plastics value chain (1) • Monitoring studies indicate a problem with plastic pollution – Impacts on environment and potentially also humans • Geyer et al. have shown the temporal development in use of plastics – Problem if there is a correlation between production and pollution 3
- 4. DTU Management22 June 2020 Estimating plastic losses across the plastics value chain (2) • Losses related to different parts of the value chain have been reported – E.g. Jambeck et al. reported a loss between 4.8 -12.7 Mt plastic from mismanaged plastic waste in coastal countries – Other studies have looked at different parts of the value chain or estimated national losses of plastics • A comprehensive overview of global losses across the entire value chain was lacking – Needed to identify the leakage hotspots and knowing where to place focus to effectively reduce plastic losses 4
- 5. DTU Management22 June 2020 Estimating plastic losses across the plastics value chain (3) • This study was done as a project for UN Environment and included inputs from various stakeholders, e.g. plastic industry associations, researchers, NGOs and international institutions (EU commission). • First results Published in UN Env. report in 2018 • Improved estimates published in RCR in 2019 – Refined estimates, more loss sources, sensitivity and uncertainty 5
- 6. DTU Management22 June 2020 Methodology Top-down plastic value chain mapping and estimation of plastic losses • Modelling of general plastic value chain at regional level • Using 2015 as reference year • Include 11 regions, 23 polymers types, 13 applications Production and Consumption • Regional distribution of global plastics production and consumption was derived based on production and consumption statistics • Split into applications based on Geyer et al. and other application specific sources • Assume same distribution of polymer use in applications across regions 6
- 7. DTU Management22 June 2020 Methodology Waste management • Generation of plastics waste as part of MSW based on statistical modelling • Amount of ‘other’ plastic wastes were based on Geyer et al. Wastewater treatment – Based on information on national treatment levels coupled with studies on plastic removal 7 Maldives Saint Kitts & Nevis Guyana Barbados St. Lucia The Bahamas Belize Grenada 0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Predicted Actual MSW generation [kg / cap / yr] 1:1 line Region)(log10 bGDPaInterceptMSW capitacapita
- 8. DTU Management22 June 2020 Methodology Estimated losses • All losses to the environment (not only marine) • Losses were based on the type of applications, life-cycle stages and regions – National assessments for DK, SE, NO, and DE – Specific life cycle stages/plastic types (Jambeck et al. 2015; Boucher and Friot, 2017) – Loss modelling and data gap filling, e.g. from WWTPs • Quantifying and reporting uncertainty of estimates – Indicating certainty of estimates – Key parameters (uncertainty and model is sensitive) Comparing losses with observations and impacts • Observations of plastics in the ocean • Reality check 8
- 9. DTU Management22 June 2020 Plastic losses • Plastics are lost to soil, freshwater, and/or marine water • Macroplastics • Microplastics (<5mm) –Primary microplastics –Secondary microplastics 9 Raw material Polymer producers Plastic processors Production of plastic products Use stage End-of-life
- 10. DTU Management22 June 2020 10 Total losses from global plastics value chain in 2015 = 9.2 Mt
- 11. DTU Management22 June 2020 11
- 12. DTU Management22 June 2020 Loss sources 12
- 13. DTU Management22 June 2020 Uncertianty • Large variability –Macro • Known uncertainties –Known unknowns? –Unknown unknowns? 13
- 14. DTU Management22 June 2020 Important parameters • Normalized sensitivity coefficient 14
- 15. DTU Management22 June 2020 Hotspots for losses of macroplastics Macroplastics • Mismanaged plastic waste management – Uncontrolled landfilling and dumping • Littering – Recreational activities (e.g. beach littering), Direct losses from fishing/maritime activities • Important plastic types – fishing lines, fishing nets, plastic bags, traps, rope, strings, and ribbons • Observed 15 Based on Ocean Conservancy (2011)
- 16. DTU Management22 June 2020 Hotspots for losses of microplastics • Use stage is the hotspot for direct microplastic losses – City dust – Textile washing – Cosmetics & personal care products • Mismanaged plastic waste management AND littering (secondary microplastics) • Observed Microplastics – Microplastics are primarily of the type LDPE, HDPE, PP, PS, PA • Types commonly used for packaging, and netting and traps (could indicate sec. MPs) • But also primary microplastics e.g. beads used in cosmetics • Difficult to detect the specific plastic application from sampling – Rubber particles are not observed (some MPs are likely below the detection limit e.g. nano-plastics) 16
- 17. DTU Management22 June 2020 Losses are nice to know but not enough • Same 10 g loss, but potentially very different impacts on the environment • For plastics, mass is not a strong proxy for impact. – Mass is just the beginning – We should aim for going beyond loss mass and move towards damage to environment and humans 17
- 18. DTU Management22 June 2020 Impacts of plastics on marine environment Macroplastics • Ingestion or entanglement • Worst macroplastics appears to be fishing lines, fishing nets, plastic bags, traps, rope, strings, and ribbons • Vectors of invasive species Microplastics • Hazardous substances • Physical impacts (feed satiation, blocking photosynthesis, etc.) 18
- 19. DTU Management22 June 2020 Framework for assessing damage of plastic losses 19 Losses to freshwater compartment Losses to terrestrial compartment Losses to marine compartment Landfill Open dump WWTP City dust Road markings Tyre abrasion particles Treated wastewater Littering Maritime activities Untreated wastewater City dust City dust Tyre abrasion particles Road markings Untreated wastewater Treated wastewater WWTP City dust Fraction of waste lost Fraction of mismanaged waste lost Building & Transportation sectors Plastic production Sewage sludge on agricultural land Losses to freshwater compartment Losses to terrestrial compartment Losses to marine compartment Landfill WWTP City City dust City dust Tyre abrasion particles Road Untreated wastewater Treated wastewater Fraction of waste lost Buil Trans se Plastic production Sewage sludge on agricultural land
- 20. DTU Management22 June 2020 Framework for assessing damage of plastic losses • Damage = f(losses, fate, exposure, effect) • So many activities are ongoing looking at different parts of the equation • We need to combine these to put numbers on what is really relevant 20 Fate of polymer P, from product T, with set of properties U Marine compartment Freshwater compartment Terrestrial compartment Plastic losses to environment
- 21. DTU Management22 June 2020 Framework for assessing damage of plastic losses • Comparing the importance of the losses • Supporting strategies and policies for effective reduction of impacts from plastic pollution 21
- 22. DTU Management22 June 2020 Supporting holistic informed decisions through life-cycle assessment • We should not look at plastic pollution separately • Our decisions should be holistic and look at the entire systems – The full value chain or life-cycle – All relevant environmental impacts • Decisions about reducing plastic pollution must address potential burden shifting – E.g., spending 100 times more fossil-based energy on plastic removal from WWTPs would likely result in a higher net-impact because of increased emissions of GHGs and particulates • We need to integrate a plastic impact assessment framework as part of more holistic assessment frameworks, such as life-cycle assessment 22
- 23. DTU Management22 June 2020 Supporting holistic informed decisions through life-cycle assessment • Support making the right decisions on an informed basis. – Identify potential synergies and burden-shifts associated with decision- making 23Plastic pollution Comparison of water containers across their life-cycle
- 24. DTU Management22 June 2020 Recommendations for future work • Losses of plastics – Improve knowledge about most important known loss sources – Obtain more data, e.g. management industrial plastic waste e.g. C&D – Maritime activities and littering – Losses related to ‘city dust’ • Fate of macro- and microplastics in environment – Transport of plastics in different environmental media (terrestrial, freshwater and marine) – Weathering and degradation of plastics in the environment • Impacts of macro- and microplastics on oceans – Impacts of macroplastics and microplastics – Different modes of action • Putting everything into a collective (LCIA) framework for supporting sound decisions 24
- 25. DTU Management22 June 2020 Thank you for your attention! Please feel free to contact me if you have questions for this study or would like to collaborate on this very important topic moryb@dtu.dk 25
Notas do Editor
- We define hotspots as being the largest plastics losses to the environment which are also found in oceans and which are likely to cause the most impacts on marine environment
- Plastics is not a bad product, in fact it has helped improving our life and it has contributed to a number of environmental benefits. The problem with plastic is the way we manage it. If we can mange plastics properly then we can solve the issue. The alternative to simply banning plastic might be much worse. We must think about the good solutions and develop integrated solutions across the life-cycle but also across borders and nations. Platic pollution is a globel problem and the the task of solving this should not only depend on a few countries.