With the economy growing at its fastest pace in the current cycle, employers across industries are adding jobs, especially in urban and dense markets where talent is migrating. As a result, expansionary activity remained the dominant driver of leasing in the third quarter, accounting for 57.9 percent of lease transactions.
1. Highest quarterly absorption during the cycle so
far further demonstrates healthy demand
United States Office Review Q4 2015
2. Despite global economic uncertainty, office
market fundamentals across the United States
showed no signs of a slowdown, with
occupancy growing at a rate 1.3x faster than
new supply and company expansion into new
markets representing nearly 10.0 percent of
total leasing activity. CBDs remain the premier
location for many tenants, but suburbs are
starting to pick up as pricing and competition
encourages many tenants to look to markets
such as Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas and
Raleigh-Durham.
3. Landlord confidence firmly rooted across most U.S. markets,
tenants face increasing rents amidst dwindling supply
2
Source: JLL Research
Leasing activity
• Leasing activity declined slightly by 2.8 percent to 60.5 million square feet, although it remained above the 60-
million-square-foot threshold, bringing year-to-date volumes to 241.9 million square feet. This represents a
year-over-year gain of 2.4 percent as markets, particularly diversified and mid-sized geographies, continue to
demonstrate solid signs of improved demand.
Absorption
• Occupancy growth across the United States totaled 18.7 million square feet in Q4, the highest quarterly figure
recorded during the cycle so far. Year-end absorption was equal to 2014’s rate of 1.4 percent year-on-year.
• Los Angeles joined other diversified markets, such as Dallas, Chicago, Phoenix, Atlanta and Philadelphia, in
being a leader in net absorption over the course of 2015.
Vacancy
• A sharp uptick in absorption helped to propel total vacancy downward by 40 basis points to 14.7 percent, falling
below the 15.0-percent mark for the first time this cycle.
• Properties across class and geographies are experiencing declines in vacancy at varying rates, with suburban
Class A posting the fastest pace in declines as minimal large CBD options hinder faster take-up of space.
Rents
• Asking rents saw their second-highest level of quarterly growth during Q4 at 2.3 percent, bringing year-over-
year gains to 3.5 percent; the U.S. office market has now reached pre-recession rent levels.
• While CBD Class A space continues to surpass all other classes over the course of the cycle, quarterly upticks
in other sectors have been faster as rising economic conditions boost much of the overall market.
Construction
• Construction activity declined slightly over the quarter to 88.3 million square feet as numerous projects began to
deliver, although groundbreakings in Q1 2016 are likely to reverse this trend.
• High preleasing rates of 47.7 and 53.1 percent for developments coming online in 2016 and 2017 mean that
relief will be somewhat limited, elevating asking rents for new space even further.
5. Leasing activity was slightly slower than Q3, but remained strong
at 60.5 million square feet
4
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Leasingactivity(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
6. Annual activity surpassed 2014 by 2.4 percent, with five markets
posting more than 3.0 million square feet of transactions
5
258,547,529
246,521,385
228,764,145
275,274,581
282,356,988
234,094,033
249,187,644
236,140,690
241,866,448
0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
YTD 2015
Leasing activity (s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
7. 6
35.4 m.s.f.
total square feet leased in Q3 in transactions
20,000 s.f. or larger
94
average term in months
52% / 41% / 7%
of tenants are growing / shrinking / stable
46.7% vs. 53.3%
urban vs. suburban breakdown
of Q3 volume
A significant number of large-block activity (> 100,000 s.f.)
consisted of renewals, slightly pushing down rate of expansion
Source: JLL Research – only for leases larger than 20,000 square feet
8. 7
Urban Suburban Total metro
Financial, tech and government activity propelled CBD volumes
to more than 1.0 m.s.f. in many geographies
Source: JLL Research – only for leases larger than 20,000 square feet
361,208
374,991
406,412
427,018
604,726
617,190
889,915
1,071,864
1,073,922
1,099,000
1,135,564
1,504,842
1,886,577
2,448,250
3,020,346
0 3,000,000 6,000,000
Philadelphia
Houston
Portland
Raleigh-Durham
SF Peninsula
San Francisco
Denver
Charlotte
Boston
Pittsburgh
Seattle-Bellevue
Chicago
Silicon Valley
Washington, DC
New York
Leasing activity (s.f.)
437,404
450,300
484,501
484,695
497,774
548,861
639,627
784,357
795,735
864,320
890,188
896,089
900,038
1,252,939
1,856,044
0 3,000,000
Atlanta
Suburban MD
Baltimore
Tampa
Austin
Orange County
Los Angeles
Chicago
Philadelphia
Dallas
Denver
Boston
Houston
New Jersey
Northern VA
Leasing activity (s.f.)
1,343,465
1,444,108
1,529,476
1,755,720
1,793,650
1,817,265
1,859,002
2,107,067
2,506,327
2,714,879
2,999,585
3,444,800
5,111,077
5,669,264
7,750,000
0 4,500,000 9,000,000
Austin
San Diego
Houston
Seattle
Philadelphia
Denver
San Francisco
Orange County
Dallas
New Jersey
Los Angeles
Boston
Chicago
New York
Washington, DC
Leasing activity (s.f.)
9. 8
2.3%
2.7%
2.8%
3.3%
3.5%
3.6%
4.7%
6.3%
6.4%
7.3%
8.9%
15.9%
16.8%
Education
Accounting consulting research strategy
Telecom
Aerospace and defense
Energy and utilities
Life sciences
Other professional and business services
Law firm
Other
Healthcare
Government
Banking and financial services
Technology
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Share of leasing activity (%)
Tech and finance continue to drive occupancy growth across a
diversity of markets
Source: JLL Research – only for leases larger than 20,000 square feet and industries with more than 2.0 percent share of activity
10. 9
6,053,192
3,184,575 3,156,701
4,476,819
4,109,935
6,292,398
8,162,871
> 30,000 s.f. 30,000-39,999
s.f.
40,000-49,999
s.f.
50,000-74,999
s.f.
75,000-99,999
s.f.
100,000-199,999
s.f.
200,000+ s.f.
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Leasingactivity(s.f.)More than one-third of activity was comprised of leases smaller
than 30,000 s.f. as growth diversifies
Source: JLL Research
11. 43.2%
48.0%
56.0%
43.7%
57.9%
52.0%
48.7% 41.0%
34.0%
46.3%
38.3%
41.0%
8.1% 11.0% 10.0% 10.0%
3.8% 7.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
Growing Stable Shrinking
10
Source: JLL Research
A slight uptick in contraction activity pushed down gains
elsewhere, but more than half of activity remains expansionary
8.3%
Shrinking
41.6%
Stable
50.1%
Growing
Average share
14. For the first time this cycle, quarterly occupancy growth totaled
0.5 percent of inventory
13
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Quarterlynetabsorption(as%ofinventory)
Source: JLL Research
15-year trailing annual average
15. Due to slightly slower uptake in previous quarters, annual
absorption remained consistent at 1.4 percent of inventory
14
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
YTDnetabsorption(as%ofinventory)
Source: JLL Research
15-year trailing
annual average
16. Movement to Class B space as quality options diminish is
increasing; quarterly B absorption double rate of early recovery
15
Source: JLL Research
31,348,654
12,456,664
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
2010-Q3 2014 Past four quarters
ClassBnetabsorption(s.f.)
1,567,433 s.f. per quarter 3,114,166 s.f. per quarter
17. Dallas Chicago Boston Phoenix
Silicon Valley Atlanta Los Angeles Seattle-Bellevue
Philadelphia Austin All other markets
Market YTD net absorption (s.f.) Share
Dallas 4,794,274 8.6%
Chicago 3,585,989 6.5%
Boston 3,045,721 5.5%
Phoenix 2,965,982 5.3%
Silicon Valley 2,891,738 5.2%
Atlanta 2,578,651 4.6%
Los Angeles 2,557,260 4.6%
Seattle-Bellevue 2,461,440 4.4%
Philadelphia 2,453,633 4.4%
Austin 2,253,197 4.1%
All other markets 25,893,173 46.7%
United States 55,481,058 100.0%
16
Source: JLL Research
Los Angeles joins other diversified markets (Dallas, Chicago,
Phoenix, Atlanta and Philadelphia) as a driver of absorption
18. More than 1.0 million square feet of absorption in Los Angeles,
the SF Peninsula and Silicon Valley boosted West Coast in Q4
17
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Shareofquarterlynetabsorption
East Coast Central West Coast
Source: JLL Research
19. With 13.1 million square feet of absorption, the Sun Belt
continues to gain momentum; tech’s share rises by 820bp
18
Source: JLL Research – figures denote share of annual net absorption
NYC and DC (*excludes Midtown South)
Tech markets (*includes Midtown South)
Energy markets
Sun Belt
All other markets
70.0%
29.7%
6.4%
2010
5.1%
33.5%
19.0%
18.4%
23.9%
2011
37.5%
26.0%
29.1%
7.4%
2012
11.1%
21.6%
22.3%
18.6%
26.4%
2013
13.7%
23.1%
15.3%
20.1%
27.8%
2014
0.9%
31.3%
4.1%
23.6%
40.2%
YTD 2015
21. Earlier flight to quality has kept Class A’s share of absorption
gains strong, but B and C are approaching the 50-m.s.f. mark
20
Source: JLL Research
Trophy and Class A
net absorption
181.1
m.s.f.2010-YTD 2015
Class B and C net
absorption
43.8
m.s.f.2010-YTD 2015
22. Submarkets with creative and tech-friendly space outperform the
national Class B average
21
11.1%
10.0%
5.6%
3.2%
2.9%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Mid-Market (SF) South Financial District
(SF)
Pioneer Square (Seattle) River West (Chicago) Santa Monica (Los
Angeles)
YTDClassBnetabsorption(%ofinventory)
Source: JLL Research
U.S. average
24. 0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015
Totalvacancy(%)
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
19.0%
20.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
The 18.7 m.s.f. of absorption in Q4 pushed vacancy down sharply
by 40bp to 14.7%; first time it has fallen below 15.0% this cycle
23
Source: JLL Research
25. Suburban A and B properties registered sharper downturns in
vacancy over the quarter due to lack of space in urban cores
24
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Changeintotalvacancy(bp)
Source: JLL Research
-420bp
CBD Class A
-510bp
Suburban Class A
-290bp
CBD Class B
-310
Suburban Class B
Change in vacancy
since Q1 2010
26. The 149,000 additional office-using jobs added during Q4 were
partially responsible for the sharp drop in vacancy
25
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
19.0%
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
29,000
30,000
31,000
32,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Totalvacancy(%)
Office-usingemployment(thousands)
Office-using employment (thousands) Total vacancy (%)
Source: JLL Research
27. Sublease space continues to fall (currently at 42.7 million square
feet) despite increasing in Houston due to stalling conditions
26
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Subleasespace(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
29. Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Sustained rent growth is pushing markets farther along the clock,
with Houston being the notable outlier
28
Source: JLL Research
Dallas, San Francisco
Charlotte, Fort Lauderdale, Kansas City
Oakland-East Bay, Orlando, Salt Lake City
Houston
Cleveland, Indianapolis, Raleigh-Durham, St. Louis
San Francisco Peninsula
Baltimore, Detroit, Hartford, San Antonio,
West Palm Beach, Westchester County
Los Angeles, San Diego
Silicon Valley
Atlanta, Jacksonville, Miami,
Orange County, Richmond, United States
New York, Pittsburgh, Portland, Tampa
Denver, Minneapolis, Seattle-Bellevue
New Jersey,
Washington, DC
Chicago, Phoenix
Columbus, Sacramento
Long Island, Philadelphia
Boston
Cincinnati, Fairfield County,
Hampton Roads, Milwaukee
Austin
Nashville
30. CBDs remain slightly ahead on aggregate, with many
approaching cyclical peaks in terms of rent growth
29
Source: JLL Research
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Dallas, Fort Lauderdale, Los Angeles, Portland
Charlotte, New York (Midtown),
Philadelphia, Raleigh-Durham
Houston
Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Phoenix, West Palm Beach
Jacksonville, Oakland, Orlando
Austin, Nashville, New York (Midtown South),
Silicon Valley
Baltimore, Kansas City
Atlanta
Boston, New York (Downtown), Pittsburgh
Denver, Seattle
Detroit, Hartford, Washington, DC
Chicago, Miami, San Diego, United States
Sacramento, White Plains
Salt Lake City
Columbus, Richmond, San Antonio, St. Louis
San Francisco
Minneapolis, Tampa
Cleveland, Indianapolis
Fairfield County
31. Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Suburban markets display more variance, from super-hot tech
geographies to lagging exurban submarkets
30
Source: JLL Research
Dallas
Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, East Bay,
Indianapolis, Westchester County
Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Miami, Milwaukee, Raleigh-Durham
Houston
San Francisco Peninsula
Central NJ, Detroit, Hartford, West Palm Beach
Los Angeles, Nashville, San Diego
Silicon Valley
Atlanta, Baltimore, United States
Austin, Bellevue, Richmond
Boston, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Seattle, Salt Lake City
Washington, DC
Cincinnati, Fairfield County,
Hampton Roads, Oakland
Lehigh Valley, Northern DE,
Northern NJ, Sacramento
Philadelphia
Cambridge
Nassau County, Orange County, Tampa
Columbus, San Antonio
San Francisco (non-CBD)
Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Portland, St. Louis
Southern NJ
Suffolk County
Denver
Kansas City
32. Annual rent growth remains steady at around 3.5 percent per
year, while asking rents are at pre-recession highs
31
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
Averageaskingrent($p.s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Annualrentgrowth(%)
33. As large blocks diminish and new supply begins to deliver, rents
rose at the second-highest rate this cycle so far (+2.3 percent)
32
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Quarterlyrentgrowth(%)
Source: JLL Research
34. CBD A growth over the course of the cycle remains highest, but
suburban A and CBD B posting faster rates of increase of late
33
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GrowthinaskingrentssinceQ12010
Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban)
Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban)
Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban)
Source: JLL Research
+25.0%
CBD Class A
+11.9%
Suburban Class C
+13.7%
CBD Class C
+13.5%
Suburban Class A
+13.7%
CBD Class B
+8.4%
Suburban Class B
35. Both CBD and suburban rents are rising appreciably, but the gap
between the two grew further to $16.67 per square foot
34
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Averageaskingrent($p.s.f)
CBD Suburbs
Source: JLL Research
$11.36
$16.67
36. Both TI packages and free months declined once again in Q4,
although they are higher than in 2014 as new space delivers
35
3.5
4.1
5.1
6.1 6.2
5.7
5.1
5.3
5.8
5.2
$23.00
$24.00
$25.00
$26.00
$27.00
$28.00
$29.00
$30.00
$31.00
$32.00
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
TIallowance($p.s.f.)
Freemonthsofrent
Free months of rent TI allowance ($ p.s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
38. Construction volumes are up 11.0 percent since year-end 2014 to
88.3 m.s.f. in Q4 2015
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Underconstruction(s.f.)
37
Source: JLL Research
39. A number of large deliveries and groundbreakings slated for Q1
2016 pushed quarterly activity down in Q4
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Underconstruction(s.f.)
38
Source: JLL Research
40. Market Under construction (s.f.) Share
New York 13,666,640 15.5%
Dallas 7,605,715 8.6%
Washington, DC 6,833,786 7.7%
Houston 6,306,180 7.1%
Seattle-Bellevue 5,912,171 6.7%
Boston 5,573,171 6.3%
San Francisco 3,664,519 4.1%
Silicon Valley 3,276,660 3.7%
Philadelphia 3,183,329 3.6%
Chicago 3,055,164 3.5%
Nashville 2,840,446 3.2%
Denver 2,739,079 3.1%
Salt Lake City 2,695,442 3.1%
Charlotte 2,617,222 3.0%
All other markets 18,384,503 20.8%
United States 88,328,543 100.0%
Mid-sized markets such as Nashville, Salt Lake City and
Charlotte are becoming more prominent
New York Dallas Washington, DC Houston Seattle-Bellevue
Boston San Francisco Silicon Valley Philadelphia Chicago
Nashville Denver Salt Lake City Charlotte All other markets
39
Source: JLL Research
41. Excluding Houston, development was largely stable quarter-on-
quarter at 82.0 m.s.f.
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Underconstruction(s.f.)
Rest of U.S. Houston
40
Source: JLL Research
42. A sharp uptick in completions in Q4 to 44.2 m.s.f. brings 2015
close to the historical average of 46.0 m.s.f.
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Completions(s.f.)
41
44.2 m.s.f.
Source: JLL Research
Average completions: 46.0 m.s.f.
43. 55.2 percent of space currently under construction will come to
the market in 2016
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
2016 2017 2018 2019
Completions(s.f.)
Speculative BTS
42
Source: JLL Research
44. 47.7 and 53.1 percent of 2016 and 2017 space has been preleased,
respectively, limiting options for tenants and pushing up rents
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
2016 2017 2018 2019
Completions(s.f.)
Available Preleased
43
Source: JLL Research
45. Starts slowed in Q4, although tightening conditions will likely
trigger more groundbreakings in 2016
7,322,061
11,407,786
13,060,032
4,781,395
11,818,372
9,168,187
9,855,374
12,720,560 12,810,553
9,748,464
8,484,369
7,331,979
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
2013 2014 2015
Starts(s.f.)
44
Source: JLL Research
46. Market Starts (s.f.) Share
Washington, DC 1,010,180 13.8%
Seattle 776,962 10.6%
Dallas 728,455 9.9%
Salt Lake City 697,390 9.5%
San Francisco 680,000 9.3%
Charlotte 667,500 9.1%
Philadelphia 534,000 7.3%
Austin 517,000 7.1%
Cincinnati 485,000 6.6%
Baltimore 292,140 4.0%
Portland 280,907 3.8%
Silicon Valley 224,052 3.1%
Denver 211,879 2.9%
New Jersey 125,445 1.7%
San Francisco Peninsula 75,569 1.0%
Indianapolis 25,500 0.3%
United States 7,331,979 100.0%
A flurry of new projects in DC, Seattle and Dallas pushed them
into leading positions for starts
Washington, DC Seattle Dallas
Salt Lake City San Francisco Charlotte
Philadelphia Austin Cincinnati
Baltimore Portland Silicon Valley
Denver New Jersey San Francisco Peninsula
Indianapolis
45
Source: JLL Research
47. Among top construction markets, BTS-driven geographies are
seeing preleasing rates in excess of 60 percent
24.1%
26.0%
32.0%
35.0%
35.1%
46.6%
47.6%
49.0%
56.5%
57.2%
59.1%
63.7%
66.2%
69.4%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%
Denver
Los Angeles
Austin
San Francisco
Seattle-Bellevue
New York
Silicon Valley
Boston
Washington, DC
Dallas
Houston
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Chicago
Preleasing rate (%)
46
Source: JLL Research
48. Trophy space under construction is 40.3 percent more expensive
than existing Class A properties as demand heats up further
$51.23
$45.71
$36.52
$25.48
$23.17
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
Trophy U/C Class A U/C Class A Class B Class C
Directaverageaskingrent($p.s.f.)
47
Source: JLL Research
50. Realized diversification deeper into primary markets, secondary
markets and larger transactions spurs 16.5 percent growth in 2015
49
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Officeinvestmentsalevolumes(billionsof$US)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Forecast
Source: JLL Research, Real Capital Analytics (Transactions larger than $5.0m)
18.8%
32.1%
19.6%
16.5%
Moderated growth
forecasted in 2016
51. Primary and secondary cap rates continue to decline
50
2.2%
4.4%
5.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
10-year Treasury (%) Primary cap rates (%) Secondary cap rates (%)
Source: JLL Research, NCREIF, Board of Governors of Federal Reserve
Despite the interest rate hike, the spread between office cap rates and the 10-year Treasury has widened slightly for primary and secondary markets to
219 and 296 basis points, respectively
52. Canadian and Asian capital continue to dominate inbound capital
51
European and Middle Eastern groups are present, though did not buy at scale in 2015
Most active foreign investors (2014) Most active foreign investors (2015)
Source: JLL Research (Assets larger than 50,000 s.f.)
24.0%
21.9%
15.3%
13.5%
9.0%
16.4%
Norway Germany Canada
Singapore South Korea All others
35.1%
15.8%15.5%
9.5%
5.6%
18.5%
Canada China Germany
South Korea Hong Kong All others
53. Of the top destinations for foreign capital, primary markets remain
ahead, though secondary markets emerge
52
$11,237
$2,323
$1,935
$1,184 $995 $709 $602 $515 $394 $347 $249 $172
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
Quarterlyofficeinvestmentvolume(millionsof$US)
Primary markets Secondary markets
Source: JLL Research (Foreign acquisition activity, Assets larger than 50,000 s.f.)
54. 33.2%
56.3%
10.5%
Trophy A B
Foreign activity into Class B increased from $644.5 million in
2014 to $4.1 billion, equating to 20.0 percent of total.
53
2013
33.1%
60.3%
6.7%
Trophy A B
2014
2015
Source: JLL Research (Foreign acquisition activity, Assets larger than 50,000 s.f.)
22.9%
57.1%
20.0%
Trophy A B
55. Secondary market momentum realized in 2015 with 11 markets
exceeding $1.0b, led by Atlanta, Dallas-Forth and Philadelphia
54
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
Secondarymarketinvestmentvolumes(millionsof$US)
2014 2015
Source: JLL Research (Assets larger than 50,000 s.f.)
56. Trophy investment volume was outpaced by Class A & B
55
However, supply-demand gap for Trophy product spurred leading per-square-foot pricing appreciation in 2015
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
Class A Class B Trophy
Annualgrowthinpricepersquarefoot(%)
Annualinvestmentsalesvolume(millionsof$US)
2014 volumes 2015 volumes Year-over-year pricing change
Source: JLL Research (Assets larger than 50,000 s.f.)
57. U.S. core product office CBD cap rates
56
NJ
CT
MA
NH
NC
VA
WA
VT
AL
AZ
AR
CA
CO
FL
GA
ID
IL IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NM
NY
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
WV
WI
WY
MD
DE
RI
Houston
6.00-6.50%
Washington, DC
4.00 – 6.00%
New York
3.25-3.75%
Chicago
4.95-5.95%
Los Angeles
5.00-6.00%
Seattle
4.50 – 5.50%
Boston
4.00– 5.00%
San Francisco
3.00 – 4.00%
Dallas
5.00-7.00%
Atlanta
5.00-6.00%
Miami
4.50 – 6.00%
Denver
5.00-6.00%
San Diego
6.00-7.00%
Philadelphia
6.00– 7.50%
Tampa
5.75-7.00%
Charlotte
6.25 – 7.50%
Raleigh
6.50 – 7.50%
Orlando
5.50 – 7.00%
Minneapolis
6.00-7.00%
Austin
4.50-5.25%
Cincinnati
8.50 – 9.50%
Phoenix
7.00-7.50%
Sacramento
5.75-6.50%
Columbus
8.00 – 9.00%
Detroit
9.50 – 10.50%
Pittsburgh
8.00 – 9.00%
4.00 – 5.00%
5.00 – 6.00%
6.00 – 7.00%
7.00 – 8.00%
8.00 - 9.00%
9.00% +
East Bay
6.50-7.50%
Portland
5.00 – 6.50%
Sub 5-6% level in most primary and rising secondary markets
Kansas City
7.00-8.00%
Cleveland
7.50 – 8.50%
Source: JLL Research, September 2015
Indianapolis
8.50 – 9.50%
58. U.S. core product office suburban cap rates
57
NJ
CT
MA
NH
NC
VA
WA
VT
AL
AZ
AR
CA
CO
FL
GA
ID
IL IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NM
NY
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
WV
WI
WY
MD
DE
RI
Houston
6.50-8.00%
Washington, DC
6.00 – 8.00%
New Jersey
7.00 - 7.50%
Chicago
7.00-8.00%
Los Angeles
4.00-7.00%
Seattle
5.50-6.25%
Boston
6.00-7.00%
Dallas
5.50-7.50%
Silicon Valley
5.00 – 6.00%
Atlanta
6.00-7.00%
Miami
5.75 – 7.00%
Denver
6.00-8.00%
San Diego
5.50-6.50%
Philadelphia
6.00 – 7.00%
Tampa
6.25-7.50%
Charlotte
6.75 – 8.00%
Raleigh
7.00 – 8.00%
Orlando
6.25-7.50%
Minneapolis
7.00-8.00%
Austin
5.00 – 6.00%
Phoenix
5.00-7.00%
4.00 – 5.00%
5.00 – 6.00%
6.00 – 7.00%
7.00 – 8.00%
8.00 - 9.00%
Cincinnati
8.50 – 9.00%
Columbus
8.00 – 9.00%
Detroit
8.00 – 9.00%
Pittsburgh
7.50 – 8.50%
9.00% +
East Bay
6.00-7.00%
Portland
6.50%-7.50%
Sub 6-8% level in most primary and rising secondary markets
Sacramento
6.75-7.50%
Cleveland
8.00 – 9.00%
Indianapolis
8.00– 9.00%
Source: JLL Research, September 2015
59. Looking ahead, 2016 is expected to be another
year of big numbers as markets prepare to
deliver 48.9 m.s.f. of new supply, putting
upward pressure on rental rates while
providing large tenants with much needed
supply to support expansion. Local markets
maintain a favorable outlook for landlords
through 2016 and 2017.