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Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Key Influencer TrackinMg e mbers Survey 2014 
Welsh Assembly Members 
Survey 2014 
August 2014 
Pres...
Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014 
Methodology and publication of results 
 This presents some findings of the 20...
Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014 
Implications of Scottish independence on Wales – 
summary of key findings 
 Tw...
Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014 
65 
57 
72 
22 
29 
16 
7 
14 
6 
12 
All AMs 
Labour AMs 
Opposition AMs 
More...
Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014 
35 
14 
57 
27 
29 
26 
23 
29 
18 
14 
29 
All AMs 
Labour AMs 
Opposition AMs...
Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014 
37 
29 
46 
23 
14 
32 
32 
43 
22 
7 
14 
All AMs 
Labour AMs 
Opposition AMs ...
Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014 
6 
12 
79 
86 
72 
5 
10 
10 
14 
6 
All AMs 
Labour AMs 
Opposition AMs 
The e...
Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014 
22 
44 
58 
71 
46 
14 
29 
5 
10 
All AMs 
Labour AMs 
Opposition AMs 
More bu...
Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014 
Future of the Barnett Formula 
54 
30 
9 
7 
To what extent do you agree or dis...
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Welsh Assembly Members Survey 2014: Implications of Scottish independence on Wales

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A new survey of Welsh Assembly Members (AMs) conducted by Ipsos MORI finds that two-thirds (65%) of AMs believe that Scottish independence would lead to greater powers being granted to the Senedd.

AMs are divided as to whether Scottish independence would mean more or less support amongst the general public towards Wales following suit and becoming an independent country. While a third (35%) of AMs believe a ‘yes’ vote in Scotland would lead to increased calls for Welsh independence, a quarter (23%) believe support would go down following Scottish independence.

Publicada em: Notícias e política
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Welsh Assembly Members Survey 2014: Implications of Scottish independence on Wales

  1. 1. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Key Influencer TrackinMg e mbers Survey 2014 Welsh Assembly Members Survey 2014 August 2014 Press-release Implications of Scottish independence on Wales
  2. 2. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014 Methodology and publication of results  This presents some findings of the 2014 study of members of the National Assembly for Wales, part of Ipsos MORI’s programme of regular multi-sponsored studies among key audiences  Methodology details: o Fieldwork dates: 5 June – 12 August 2014 o Total number of respondents: 25 (Labour 7, Conservative 8, Plaid Cymru 6 and Liberal Democrats 4) o All Assembly Members (AMs) were contacted to ensure that those interviewed closely represent the profile of the National Assembly o Interviews were conducted face-to-face  The total sample interviewed is closely representative of the Senedd. Based on those asked each question, data have been weighted to reflect the true balance by party  Given the small base sizes throughout the report, results should be regarded as indicative rather than fully representative Methodology Any publication of the results contained within this document should make reference to:  The survey was conducted by Ipsos MORI  The dates of fieldwork were 5 June – 12 August 2014  The sample size was 25 Assembly Members  All interviews were conducted face-to-face with Assembly Members Publication of results
  3. 3. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014 Implications of Scottish independence on Wales – summary of key findings  Two-thirds (65%) of AMs believe that Scottish independence would lead to greater powers than currently proposed for the National Assembly for Wales. Labour and opposition AMs are generally of the same opinion about this.  AMs are divided on whether or not Scottish independence would lead to greater calls from the general public for Wales to follow suit and become an independent country itself. A third of AMs (35%) say that there would be increase in calls for Welsh independence compared with a quarter (23%) who believe that support for Welsh independence would drop in the event of Scotland voting ‘yes’ in the referendum.  The Senedd is also divided in terms of the implications on the strength of the relationship between the Welsh and Scottish governments – while 37% say the relationship will grow stronger as a result of Scottish independence, 32% think it will grow weaker.  AMs do not foresee that Scottish independence will have any effect at all on the Welsh economy – an opinion expressed by eight in ten AMs (79%) and a view shared by both Labour and opposition AMs.  In terms of the effect on funding the Welsh Government, while most (58%) believe that there will be no change to the budget allocated from Westminster, there are some who believe that it will lead to more budget (22%) or to a reduction in the budget (14%).  Regardless of whether Scotland becomes independent or not, there is a strong view in Cardiff Bay that the way the devolved administrations are currently funded (i.e. the Barnett Formula) should no longer be used – 84% are of this opinion with agreement amongst all parties. See pages 4-9 for further details on these results
  4. 4. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014 65 57 72 22 29 16 7 14 6 12 All AMs Labour AMs Opposition AMs More powers than currently proposed would be devolved No change in the powers already proposed Fewer powers than currently proposed would be devolved Don’t know Implications on devolved powers Base: All AMs (25), Labour AMs (7), Opposition AMs (18), June-August 2014 Which of these statements best describes the likely implications on devolved powers to the Welsh Government if Scotland becomes an independent country? In the decade following Scottish independence… Caution: Small base size for Labour and opposition AMs
  5. 5. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014 35 14 57 27 29 26 23 29 18 14 29 All AMs Labour AMs Opposition AMs Support would go up No change in support Support would go down Don’t know Implications on public support for Welsh independence Base: All AMs (25), Labour AMs (7), Opposition AMs (18), June-August 2014 Which of these statements best describes the likely implications for public support for Wales becoming an independent country? In the decade following Scottish independence… Caution: Small base size for Labour and opposition AMs
  6. 6. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014 37 29 46 23 14 32 32 43 22 7 14 All AMs Labour AMs Opposition AMs Relationship would grow stronger No change in strength of relationship Relationship would grow weaker Don’t know Implications on strength of Welsh/Scottish relationship Base: All AMs (25), Labour AMs (7), Opposition AMs (18), June-August 2014 Which of these statements best describes the likely implications on the strength of the relationship between the Welsh and Scottish governments? In the decade following Scottish independence… Caution: Small base size for Labour and opposition AMs
  7. 7. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014 6 12 79 86 72 5 10 10 14 6 All AMs Labour AMs Opposition AMs The economy would grow stronger No change effect on Welsh economy The economy would grow weaker Don’t know Implications on the Welsh economy Base: All AMs (25), Labour AMs (7), Opposition AMs (18), June-August 2014 Which of these statements best describes the likely implications on the Welsh economy? In the decade following Scottish independence… Caution: Small base size for Labour and opposition AMs
  8. 8. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014 22 44 58 71 46 14 29 5 10 All AMs Labour AMs Opposition AMs More budget allocated from Westminster No change in budget allocated from Westminster Less budget allocated from Westminster Don’t know Implications on Welsh Government’s budget Base: All AMs (25), Labour AMs (7), Opposition AMs (18), June-August 2014 which of these statements best describes the likely implications on the Welsh Government’s budget allocation if Scotland becomes an independent country? In the decade following Scottish independence… Caution: Small base size for Labour and opposition AMs
  9. 9. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014 Future of the Barnett Formula 54 30 9 7 To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements…The Barnett Formula should no longer be used to determine the block grants for the United Kingdom's devolved administrations? 79 72 81 84 12 17 9 7 0 20 40 60 80 100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 % Agree % Disagree % Strongly agree % Tend to agree % Neither / No opinion % Tend to disagree % Disagree strongly 43 43 14 65 18 18 Base: All AMs (25), Labour AMs (7), Opposition AMs (18), June-August 2014 Opposition AMs All AMs Caution: Small base size for Labour and opposition AMs

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