O slideshow foi denunciado.
Utilizamos seu perfil e dados de atividades no LinkedIn para personalizar e exibir anúncios mais relevantes. Altere suas preferências de anúncios quando desejar.

The State of Britain and Brexit

2.682 visualizações

Publicada em

Presentation from Ipsos MORI's "The state of Britain and Brexit" event on 8 June 2016. With speakers including Gaby Hinsliff, The Guardian, Tim Montgomerie, The Times and Vicky Pryce, CEBR.

Publicada em: Notícias e política
  • DOWNLOAD THAT BOOKS INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT (2019 Update) ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://urlzs.com/UABbn } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full EPUB Ebook here { https://urlzs.com/UABbn } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full doc Ebook here { https://urlzs.com/UABbn } ......................................................................................................................... Download PDF EBOOK here { https://urlzs.com/UABbn } ......................................................................................................................... Download EPUB Ebook here { https://urlzs.com/UABbn } ......................................................................................................................... Download doc Ebook here { https://urlzs.com/UABbn } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ................................................................................................................................... eBook is an electronic version of a traditional print book that can be read by using a personal computer or by using an eBook reader. (An eBook reader can be a software application for use on a computer such as Microsoft's free Reader application, or a book-sized computer that is used solely as a reading device such as Nuvomedia's Rocket eBook.) Users can purchase an eBook on diskette or CD, but the most popular method of getting an eBook is to purchase a downloadable file of the eBook (or other reading material) from a Web site (such as Barnes and Noble) to be read from the user's computer or reading device. Generally, an eBook can be downloaded in five minutes or less ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks .............................................................................................................................. Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .....BEST SELLER FOR EBOOK RECOMMEND............................................................. ......................................................................................................................... Blowout: Corrupted Democracy, Rogue State Russia, and the Richest, Most Destructive Industry on Earth,-- The Ride of a Lifetime: Lessons Learned from 15 Years as CEO of the Walt Disney Company,-- Call Sign Chaos: Learning to Lead,-- StrengthsFinder 2.0,-- Stillness Is the Key,-- She Said: Breaking the Sexual Harassment Story That Helped Ignite a Movement,-- Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones,-- Everything Is Figureoutable,-- What It Takes: Lessons in the Pursuit of Excellence,-- Rich Dad Poor Dad: What the Rich Teach Their Kids About Money That the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!,-- The Total Money Makeover: Classic Edition: A Proven Plan for Financial Fitness,-- Shut Up and Listen!: Hard Business Truths that Will Help You Succeed, ......................................................................................................................... .........................................................................................................................
       Responder 
    Tem certeza que deseja  Sim  Não
    Insira sua mensagem aqui
  • DOWNLOAD THAT BOOKS/FILE INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT - (Unlimited) ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... Download FULL PDF EBOOK here { http://bit.ly/2m77EgH } ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... accessibility Books Library allowing access to top content, including thousands of title from favorite author, plus the ability to read or download a huge selection of books for your pc or smartphone within minutes Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Manga, Memoir, Music, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance,
       Responder 
    Tem certeza que deseja  Sim  Não
    Insira sua mensagem aqui

The State of Britain and Brexit

  1. 1. © 2016 Ipsos. 1EU Perils of Perception 2016 Welcome… Britain and Brexit Bobby Duffy, MD Public Affairs @bobbyIpsosMORI
  2. 2. 2EU Perils of Perception 2016 Agenda  Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI  Gaby Hinsliff, Columnist, The Guardian  Vicky Pryce, Chief Economic Advisor, CEBR  Tim Montgomerie, Columnist, The Times  Q&A #IpsosMORILive Wi-fi: RCOG Guest
  3. 3. 3EU Perils of Perception 2016
  4. 4. 4EU Perils of Perception 2016
  5. 5. 5EU Perils of Perception 2016
  6. 6. © 2016 Ipsos. 6EU Perils of Perception 2016 Tomorrow… Perils of Perception
  7. 7. 7 • Bombay mix has to be renamed as Mumbai mix • Barmaids cannot show too much cleavage • Sausages to be renamed as emulsified high-fat offal tubes • Water bottles cannot advertise that their contents prevent dehydration Are any of these EU Euro- Myth Euro- Reality? Regulations/Recommendations real? or
  8. 8. 8 EURO REALITY
  9. 9. 9 • Bombay mix has to be renamed as Mumbai mix • Barmaids cannot show too much cleavage • Sausages to be renamed as emulsified high-fat offal tube • Water bottles cannot say their contents prevent dehydration One in seven people believe at least one Euro-Myth
  10. 10. 10 Bananas that are too Euro- Myth Euro- Reality? bendy are banned fromor being imported into the UK
  11. 11. 11 EURO MYTH
  12. 12. 12 EURO REALITY
  13. 13. 13 Based on Commission Regulation 1333/2011 setting out minimum standards for imported bananas – including that they should generally be “free from malformation or abnormal curvature”. But “abnormal curvature” wasn’t intended to mean bendy or more bendy than average - it’s aim is to stop importers sending boxes of bananas that are so malformed fewer fit into a standard size package for transport
  14. 14. 14 Britain pays more into Euro- Myth Euro- Reality? the EU budget each yearor than Germany
  15. 15. 15
  16. 16. 16
  17. 17. 17 MEPs are directly elected Euro- Myth Euro- Reality? by the citizens in eachor member state
  18. 18. 18 EURO REALITY
  19. 19. 19 43% think not or don’t know
  20. 20. 20
  21. 21. 21 The facts are often confusing and contested… …and facts about the future don’t exist…
  22. 22. 22 Ben Page Chief Executive Ipsos MORI
  23. 23. © 2016 Ipsos. 23 Will we or will we Stay Go..? #ipsosmorilive @benatipsosmori Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
  24. 24. 24 0 10 20 30 40 May 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003 May 2004 May 2005 May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 May 2014 May 2015 May 2016 Cameron becomes PM For most of last decade only 5% said EU was top issue What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Treaty of Accession: 10 new EU Member States France and Holland reject ratification of EU constitution Lowest score recorded (1%) UKIP come first in European Parliament elections Highest score since December 1999 (30%) Between 2005 and 2015 on average 5% said EU was important issue Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
  25. 25. 25 The polling averages mostly point to a tight race
  26. 26. 26 Our long-term trends show opinion is very volatile 26% 60% 63% 52% 49% 53% 51% 41% 61% 51% 65% 29% 27% 36% 35% 32% 39% 49% 27% 36% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Feb-78 Feb-80 Feb-82 Feb-84 Feb-86 Feb-88 Feb-90 Feb-92 Feb-94 Feb-96 Feb-98 Feb-00 Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12 Feb-14 Feb-16 If there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or get out of the European Union, how would you vote? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Stay in Get out
  27. 27. 27 Is Scotland 2014 a guide or a one-off? Should Scotland be an independent country? Which way are you most inclined to vote? Yes, Leave No, Stay Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Nine months before Last month Last days Base: All registered and certain to vote including leaners (excluding don’t know and refused) (886). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
  28. 28. 28 Turnout becomes crucial as more people definitely decide Have you definitely decided to vote…or is there a chance you may change your mind? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 57% 58% 63% 64% 69% 73% 40% 39% 35% 33% 28% 25% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Definitely decided May change mind Don’t know Base: All expressing an opinion on how they will vote 926 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
  29. 29. 29 Turnout closely related to age (favours Brexit) and Base: c3,000 adults 18+ March- May 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor ‘Remain’ lead 18-34 35-54 55+ Total ABC1 +55 +30 +2 +28 C2DE +21 -7 -24 -6 Total +40 +13 -11 Certain to vote? 18-34 35-54 55+ Total ABC1 59 76 80 72 C2DE 44 68 76 64 Total 52 72 78 Most likely Least likely Positive Negative class (favours Remain)
  30. 30. 30© Ipsos Public Affairs There are 3.4m more under 35s than over 65s… BUT young people will cast fewer votes… Aged 18-34 Aged 65+ 22% 29%22% 14.2m 11.1m 29% In UK population % they make up of 18+ population % of total voting population in GE2015* If replicated in EU Referendum** 6.7m 8.6m *According to BES validation against electoral registers for GE2015 **Based on share of c30m actual votes, if turnout similar to General Election 2015
  31. 31. 31 Among leave voters 81% who said they would vote to leave in would still vote leave in April October said they Remain supporters have been more flaky….. Note: In April we added a preamble to the question indicating the date of the referendum Source: Ipsos MORI/Unbound Philanthropy, Base:1,593, aged 18+, surveyed online between 14-25 April 2016 October 2015 Remain 45% April 2016 Leave 38% Undecided 17% Remain 39% Leave 38% Undecided 23% Among remain voters, 74% who said they would vote remain in October said they would still vote remain in April
  32. 32. © 2016 Ipsos. 32 The Issues
  33. 33. 33 Remain and leave voters motivated by very different issues Looking ahead to the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union on June 23rd, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which way to vote? Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14-16 May 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 25% 49% 30% 16% 40% 15% 6% 5% Impact on Britain’s economy Number of immigrants coming into Britain Britain’s ability to make its own laws Cost of EU immigration on GB's welfare system Leave supporters Remain supporters
  34. 34. 34 Many expect problems for economy in short term (but not own!) If Britain votes to leave the European Union, to what extent do you think it would be better or worse for each of the following, or would it make no difference? Base: 1,002 British adults, aged 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 18 39 26 46 11 15 29 35 49 7 16 9 Your own standard of living Britain's economy over the next ten to twenty years Britain's economy over the next five years Better Makes no difference Worse Don’t know
  35. 35. Implicit Reaction Time (IRT) allows us to compare people’s stated opinions with the strength of their unconscious associations
  36. 36. 36 Agree EXPLICIT EMPHATICAgree% Remain voters: agree staying would be better for British economy (79% vs 44%) Leave voters: agree leaving would be better for British economy (78% vs 45%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Doubt / Lip service Not on the radar Confidence / Owned Niche Appeal Both remain and leave voters are certain their option would be best for the economy1 Base: All intending to vote remain (310); All intending to vote leave (286)
  37. 37. 37 Agree EXPLICIT EMPHATICAgree% Doubt / Lip service Not on the radar Confidence / Owned Niche Appeal Base: All intending to vote remain (310); All intending to vote leave (286) Remain voters: agree staying would be better for trade with other countries (85% vs 59%) Leave voters: agree leaving would be better for trade with other countries (59% vs 20%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Remain camp owns arguments on trade – leave voters say they think Brexit would be better for trade, but unconvincingly2
  38. 38. 38 Agree EXPLICIT EMPHATICAgree% Doubt / Lip service Not on the radar Confidence / Owned Niche Appeal Base: All intending to vote remain (310); All intending to vote leave (286) Voters on both sides unconvinced about impact on own standard of living3 Remain voters: agree staying would be better for own standard of living (63% vs 33%) Leave voters: agree leaving would be better for own standard of living (58% vs 28%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
  39. 39. 39 Agree EXPLICIT EMPHATICAgree% Doubt / Lip service Not on the radar Confidence / Owned Niche Appeal Base: All intending to vote remain (310); All intending to vote leave (286) Although both think their vote best for long-term, less sure about short-term – remain voters especially have a gap between explicit4 Remain voters: agree staying would be better in the long-term (81% vs 50%) Leave voters: agree leaving would be better in the long-term (92% vs 53%) Remain voters: agree staying would be better in the short-term (67% vs 27%) Leave voters: agree leaving would be better in the short-term (53% vs 22%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% response and IRT score
  40. 40. 40 And of course it isn’t easy for us pollsters either… Social and political change SamplingTurnout Makes predicting turnout more important Adds to challenges in getting a representative sample Does the sample contain the right mix of voters and non-voters? Can we identify voters and non- voters correctly?
  41. 41. 41 Turnout is key …and apply a turnout filter (eg the one that Adds 3 to Leave Registration nearly closed! Our final war-footing model… So will look at registered voters only… Takes 3 from Remain gets us closest on GE2015):
  42. 42. 42 So why don’t we ask someone else …?
  43. 43. 43 Captains of Industry? As you may know, the government has pledged to hold a referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union by 2017 Which outcome of the referendum do you think would be best for your business? 87% 7% 4%2% And which outcome would you personally prefer? 87% 7% 3%3% And if there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or leave the European Union, how would you vote? 83% 12% 2%3% UK staying in/Stay in UK leaving/Get out Don’t know Refused
  44. 44. 44 Economists? If the United Kingdom votes in the next 5 years Reduces the risk Makes no difference Increases the risk Don’t know UK economy experiencing to leave the European Union, what impact, if any, do you think it would have on the risk of the a serious negative shock 8% 22% 68% 3% Base: 639 economists, 19th – 27th May 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI
  45. 45. 45 Betting markets are STILL 73% for in
  46. 46. 46 Pollsters, political scientists and journalists think Remain will win (55%-45%) But they also give Brexit a 38% chance Survey of 496 academics, 13 pollsters, 33 journalists and 54 other experts 24 May-6 June 2016 by the Political Studies Association
  47. 47. 47 Public still expect Remain to win… Which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely to happen at the referendum in June? 74% 8% 18% 32% 46% 22% Remain voters Leave voters Britain will vote to remain a member of the European Union Britain will vote to leave the European Union Don’t know Base: 1,000 online adults aged 18-75, 29 April – 5 May 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  48. 48. 48 Our next poll 15 June…. Watch this space!
  49. 49. 49 Gaby Hinsliff Columnist The Guardian
  50. 50. 50 Vicky Pryce Chief Economic Advisor CEBR
  51. 51. 51 Tim Montgomerie Columnist The Times
  52. 52. 52 Q&A
  53. 53. Ipsos MORI Thinks Some of the projects underway/done…. • EU Perils of Perception – UK in a Changing Europe • Shifting service expectations – Deloitte • Responsible tax behaviour – CBI Up and coming… • Millennial Myths (and Realities) • Corporate Responsibility: impact on the bottom line • Sugar: norms, behaviour and what’s next • Open Banking: Utility & Security
  54. 54. 54 Thank you – now drinks!

×