The Perils of Perception: Public (Mis)Perceptions of the UK Housing Market

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Ben Marshall, Research Director, Ipsos MORI, presents the top 10 things the British public do and do not know about the UK housing market - and what they think.

Real Estate

The perils of perception: housing
@BenM_IM What the public know & think:
10 (mis)perceptions

Perception 1: There is a housing crisis (but it’s not local)
To what extent do you agree or
disagree that…”there is a housing
crisis in Britain”?
76%
Agree
20%
Disagree
48%
Disagree
46%
Agree
Base: 1,010 GB adults 18+, telephone, 11-13 Jan 2015Source: Ipsos MORI/CIH
Q. To what extent do you agree or
disagree that…”there is a housing
crisis in Britain”?
Q. To what extent do you agree or
disagree that…”there is a housing
crisis in in my local area”?

Perception 2: Think owner-occupation not as prevalent as it is
Source: Ipsos MORI/Channel 4
Base: 998 GB adults 15+, Jan-Feb 2012
28%think 2/3 or more are
owner-occupiers

Perception 3: Are aware of the average UK house price…
190k vactual 195k
Source: Ipsos MORI
Base: 1,100 GB adults 16-75 (online), 5-9 June 2015
(£195k as at May 2015, source Nationwide)

Perception 4: …but under-estimate the extent of prices rises*
3% vactual 11%* although this depends on the measure
Source: Ipsos MORI
Base: 984 GB adults 16+, 12-22 June 2015
(11% change May 2014-May 2015 – Halifax HPI
* N.B. there are several, different
measures for equivalent periods – Nationwide +3-4%,
ONS 10%, Land Registry 4%)

(N.B. pretty accurate on what will happen)
140,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
190,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Average prediction (HMCT) Actual (HPI)
% increase/decrease
(benchmark vs 12 months
after HMCT survey fieldwork)
Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months
time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from
Halifax HPI]
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
Halifax – House Price Index data (AllMon (NSA))
Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
Survey no.
r2 = 0.85

Perception 5: Under-estimate £ deposits
£20kv actual £71k
Source: Ipsos MORI
Base: 1,100 GB adults 16-75 (online), 5-9 June 2015
(Real as at June 2015, source Mortgage Advice Bureau)

Perception 6: Under-estimate intermediate thresholds
£60,000
£74,800
£25,000
£40,500
Single person Couples
Mean estimates:
£0
Base: 554 potential
customers (London) 27Feb- 9
Mar 2009
Source: Ipsos MORI/GLA
When asked to estimate maximum income to be eligible for Intermediate Housing
(defined)…

Perception 7: Under-estimate rent levels (less so for London)
£600 v actual £800
£1,000 v actual £1,200
Source: Ipsos MORI
Base: 1,100 GB adults 16-75 (online), 5-9 June 2015
(Real as at June 2015, source LSL Property Services plc.)

Perception 8: Over-estimate the scale of social housing
39%
v 15%
Source: Ipsos MORI/#HousingDay
Base: All GB adults not social renting: England (1,353); ‘Correct’ data has been sourced by the
Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 24 Oct -2 Nov 2014

Source: Ipsos MORI/Halifax
More
expensive
(47% think 6%+)
Smaller
Source: Shelter
Perception 9: New builds more expensive/smaller

Perception 10: Over-estimate the extent of development
9
16
18
20
21
16
3/4 or more
Between 1/2 and 3/4
Around half
Between 1/4 and 1/2
Less than 1/4
Don't know
Base: 1,699 adults aged 16+, April-May 2012
Actual = 10% or <
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18623096
Source: Ipsos MORI/British Property Federation
Q. ‘Developed land’ is defined as…
What proportion of land in England do you think is developed?

For more information:
@BenM_IMben.marshall@ipsos.com

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The Perils of Perception: Public (Mis)Perceptions of the UK Housing Market

1. The perils of perception: housing @BenM_IM What the public know & think: 10 (mis)perceptions

2. Perception 1: There is a housing crisis (but it’s not local) To what extent do you agree or disagree that…”there is a housing crisis in Britain”? 76% Agree 20% Disagree 48% Disagree 46% Agree Base: 1,010 GB adults 18+, telephone, 11-13 Jan 2015Source: Ipsos MORI/CIH Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that…”there is a housing crisis in Britain”? Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that…”there is a housing crisis in in my local area”?

3. Perception 2: Think owner-occupation not as prevalent as it is Source: Ipsos MORI/Channel 4 Base: 998 GB adults 15+, Jan-Feb 2012 28%think 2/3 or more are owner-occupiers

4. Perception 3: Are aware of the average UK house price… 190k vactual 195k Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,100 GB adults 16-75 (online), 5-9 June 2015 (£195k as at May 2015, source Nationwide)

5. Perception 4: …but under-estimate the extent of prices rises* 3% vactual 11%* although this depends on the measure Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 984 GB adults 16+, 12-22 June 2015 (11% change May 2014-May 2015 – Halifax HPI * N.B. there are several, different measures for equivalent periods – Nationwide +3-4%, ONS 10%, Land Registry 4%)

6. (N.B. pretty accurate on what will happen) 140,000 150,000 160,000 170,000 180,000 190,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Average prediction (HMCT) Actual (HPI) % increase/decrease (benchmark vs 12 months after HMCT survey fieldwork) Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPI] Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Halifax – House Price Index data (AllMon (NSA)) Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+ Survey no. r2 = 0.85

7. Perception 5: Under-estimate £ deposits £20kv actual £71k Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,100 GB adults 16-75 (online), 5-9 June 2015 (Real as at June 2015, source Mortgage Advice Bureau)

8. Perception 6: Under-estimate intermediate thresholds £60,000 £74,800 £25,000 £40,500 Single person Couples Mean estimates: £0 Base: 554 potential customers (London) 27Feb- 9 Mar 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI/GLA When asked to estimate maximum income to be eligible for Intermediate Housing (defined)…

9. Perception 7: Under-estimate rent levels (less so for London) £600 v actual £800 £1,000 v actual £1,200 Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,100 GB adults 16-75 (online), 5-9 June 2015 (Real as at June 2015, source LSL Property Services plc.)

10. Perception 8: Over-estimate the scale of social housing 39% v 15% Source: Ipsos MORI/#HousingDay Base: All GB adults not social renting: England (1,353); ‘Correct’ data has been sourced by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 24 Oct -2 Nov 2014

11. Source: Ipsos MORI/Halifax More expensive (47% think 6%+) Smaller Source: Shelter Perception 9: New builds more expensive/smaller

12. Perception 10: Over-estimate the extent of development 9 16 18 20 21 16 3/4 or more Between 1/2 and 3/4 Around half Between 1/4 and 1/2 Less than 1/4 Don't know Base: 1,699 adults aged 16+, April-May 2012 Actual = 10% or < Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18623096 Source: Ipsos MORI/British Property Federation Q. ‘Developed land’ is defined as… What proportion of land in England do you think is developed?

13. For more information: @BenM_IMben.marshall@ipsos.com

The Perils of Perception: Public (Mis)Perceptions of the UK Housing Market

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