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Spinning the Election: Who is setting the Agenda in the UK General Election 2015?

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Bobby Duffy, MD, Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute, presented these slides at our event in partnership with King's college London. This event examined who sets the agenda in general election campaigns and what this tells us about the health of British democracy. The panel explored the role of the media, social media, parties themselves, the relationships between them and the effect it has on public opinion.

More information: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/events/151/Spinning-the-election-Who-is-setting-the-agenda-in-the-UK-general-election-2015.aspx
Research: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3539/A-third-of-young-people-think-social-media-will-influence-their-vote.aspx

Publicada em: Notícias e política
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Spinning the Election: Who is setting the Agenda in the UK General Election 2015?

  1. 1. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Spinning the election: Who is setting the agenda in the UK general election 2015? #KingsIpsosMORI
  2. 2. How do the Public Decide? Bobby Duffy Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute
  3. 3. More to play for?
  4. 4. Fewer voters have decided… Base: 830 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention, 8th -10th February 2015 4 HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR … PARTY, OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor February 2015 81% 62% 54% 48% 18% 35% 45% 50% April 2010 April 2005 March 1992 Definitely decided May change mind Don’t know
  5. 5. Campaigns only getting more important as loyalty falls… All data points represent > 200 responses 5DO YOU THINK OF YOURSELF AS A SUPPORTER OF ANY ONE POLITICAL PARTY? Source: British Social Attitudes 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Pre war Baby boomers Gen X Gen Y
  6. 6. What do people think influences them?
  7. 7. We’re expecting the TV debates to play a big role… Base: 1,142, GB adults 18+, 6th – 16th February 2015 7WHAT WILL INFLUENCE VOTE… VERSUS… WHAT DID INFLUENCE VOTE IN 2010 Source: Ipsos MOR 40 20 16 13 12 8 4 3 30 Leadership debates Newspapers Election broadcasts Social media Leaflets Opinion polls Posters Telephone calls None of these Will influence vote Influenced vote (2010) 34% of 18-24 year olds
  8. 8. …although we admit to less impact from past debates… 8WHAT WILL INFLUENCE VOTE… VERSUS… WHAT DID INFLUENCE VOTE IN 2010 Base: 1,142, GB adults 18+, 6th – 16th February 2015 Source: Ipsos MOR 40 20 16 13 12 8 4 3 30 18 14 12 2 8 3 3 0.5 52 Leadership debates Newspapers Election broadcasts Social media Leaflets Opinion polls Posters Telephone calls None of these Will influence vote Influenced vote (2010) …still, quarter of people in marginal constituencies said debates influenced vote
  9. 9. Social media increasing access and breaking down barriers – but bringing down quality of debate? Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 8th -10th February 2015 9 TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS SUCH AS FACEBOOK AND TWITTER… Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor …are giving a voice to people who would not normally take part in political debate 71% 14% …are breaking down the barriers between voters and politicians and political parties 50% 28% …are making political debate more divisive than it used to be 52% 22% …are making political debate more superficial than it used to be 50% 27% Agree Disagree
  10. 10. A direct engagement tool for politicians… 10 207 MPs 301 PPCs 221 MPs 179 PPCs 49 MPs 103 PPCs 1 MPs 113 PPCs 2 MPs 98 PPCs But how engaged are MPs? 89 MPs replied to 0 tweets 59,179 from MPs: 28 Jan – 24 Feb Tim Farron 876 tweets, 93% of them replies
  11. 11. But mainstream media key to social media communication… 11 49674 32954 610 420 350 310 290 210 210 200 190 180 @thei100 @telegraph @ed_miliband @uklabour @ukchange @david_cameron @youtube @mailonline @dailymirror @independent 770 240 190 170 130 120 110 110 100 100 @telegraph @mailonline @dpjhodges @mayoroflondon @piersmorgan @spectator_ch @obornetweets @oklabour @timesredbox @spectator Top accounts mentioned in discussion about…
  12. 12. …but others do get attention… 12
  13. 13. People are really bad at identifying influences – analysis can show what most associated – and how shifting…
  14. 14. In 2005 report, the top four factors related to thinking immigration is an issue were all newspapers… 14 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, Jan-Oct 2014 Immigration Read the Daily Mail Owner-occupier Vote Conservative Read the Daily Express Read the Sun Work full-time Most likely to see as important issue to Britain Social classes AB Read the Guardian Satisfied with govt Least likely to see as important issue to Britain Cause and effect tricky…
  15. 15. Not surprising when see difference in views… 15 WHAT WOULD YOU SAY IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE/OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES FACING BRITAIN TODAY? IMMIGRATION Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Daily Express Daily Mail Daily Mirror Daily Telegraph The Guardian The Independent The Sun The Times None of these
  16. 16. …but now… politics has displaced/caught up/something? 16 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, Jan-Oct 2014 Immigration Vote UKIP Read the Sun Vote Conservative Read Daily Mail White ethnic group Aged 65+ Read the Guardian Degree/post-grad Vote Labour Scotland Aged 18-24 Greater London Vote Green Most likely to see as important issue to Britain Least likely to see as important issue to Britain
  17. 17. Finally, we’re pretty shaky on the facts – susceptible to spin and emotion? Perils of Perception
  18. 18. 5% of the population are Muslim… 13% of the population are immigrants… 3% of teenage girls get pregnant each year… …we think 21% are …we think 24% are …we think 16% do
  19. 19. “That’ll be a Daily Mail effect”
  20. 20. French think 31% (actual 8%) …Italians think 30% (actual 7%) …Americans think 24% (actual 3%) But we’re far from being the worst…
  21. 21. It’s not them, it’s us… Not that people are stupid…. 2. Social psychology explanations: biases and heuristics – we remember vivid anecdote, not facts, and emphasise negative information… …misperceptions are partly “emotional innumeracy”: our worries cause our misperceptions, as much as our misperceptions cause our worries Two broad schools of thought… 1. People are rationally ignorant: their vote doesn’t affect anything so why be informed? We get the campaign we deserve…
  22. 22. Thank you @BobbyIpsosMORI

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