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Scottish Independence Referendum Poll for Evening Standard

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Ipsos MORI’s final Scottish referendum poll shows the No campaign with a very narrow lead, in line with other polls in recent days. Among those certain to vote, 50% say they will vote No, with 45% saying they will vote Yes and 4% still undecided. Excluding those undecided, 53% of certain voters say they intend to vote No, with 47% to vote Yes.

Some 95% of Scots say they are certain to vote today, including 90% of those aged 16-24.Both sides, though, include supporters for whom this is their first time registered to vote: 13% of Yes supporters and 10% of No voters.

Publicada em: Notícias e política
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Scottish Independence Referendum Poll for Evening Standard

  1. 1. 1 Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI Scottish Independence Referendum Poll for Evening Standard September 2014
  2. 2. 2 Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI Should Scotland be an independent country? Which way are you most inclined to vote? Voting intention amongst those certain to vote (excluding don’t know/refused) Base: All registered and certain to vote (excluding don’t know and refused) (886). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014 Yes 47% No 53% All certain to vote (excluding don’t know and refused)
  3. 3. 3 Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI Should Scotland be an independent country? Which way are you most inclined to vote? Referendum voting intention Base: All registered to vote (980); all certain to vote (926). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014 Yes 44% No 50% Don’t know/ refused 6% All voters Yes 45% No 50% Don’t know/ refused 4% Certain to vote
  4. 4. 4 Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI Voting intention by gender Base: All certain to vote (926). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014 51% 45% Yes Don’t know/refused No 40% 3% 6% 55%
  5. 5. 5 Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI 47% 50% 4% Voting intention by age group Yes No Don’t know/refused 53% 46% 70% 25% 5% 31% 63% 6% 16-24 25-34 35-54 55+ Base: All certain to vote (926). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
  6. 6. 6 Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI Regardless of how you intend to vote, what do you think the result will be? Do you think…? Outcome Base: All registered to vote (980). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014 Yes will win 30% No will win 46% Don't know 24% Outcome
  7. 7. 7 Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI Which of these has been more important in your decision to vote Yes/No – because you are hopeful for the future if the Yes/No side wins, or because you are fearful for the future if the Yes/No side loses? Factors behind vote – fear or hope? All expressing an opinion (923). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014 Hopeful 57% Fearful 38% Neither 2% Don't know 3% Hopeful 80% Fearful 16% Neither 2% Don't know 3% Hopeful 36% Fearful 58% Neither 2% Don't know 3% Overall Yes supporters No supporters
  8. 8. 8 Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI Which of these has been more important in your decision to vote Yes/No – because of the practical consequences of the result, or because of your feelings of national identity? Factors behind vote – practical consequences or national identity? All expressing an opinion (923). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014 Practical consequences 74% National identity 19% Neither 2% Don't know 3% Practical consequences 70% National identity 24% Neither 4% Don't know 2% Practical consequences 78% National identity 15% Neither 2% Don't know 5% Overall Yes supporters No supporters
  9. 9. 9 Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI As far as you know, are you registered to vote in the Scottish independence referendum? Voter registration Base: All (991). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014 Yes 99% No 1% Don't know *% Registered to vote? Registered before 89% First time registered 11% Registered before? Base: All registered to vote (980). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
  10. 10. 10 Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI Technical details •This presents the topline results from the final Ipsos MORI Scottish Referendum poll for the Evening Standard. •Results are based on a survey of 991 adults aged 16+, including 980 respondents registered to vote, conducted by telephone. •Fieldwork dates: 16th September – 17th September 2014 •Data are weighted by: age, sex, region and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public- private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data •Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories •Results are based on all respondents registered to vote (980) unless otherwise stated.
  11. 11. 11 © Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public Thank you mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 gideon.skinner@ipsos.com | 020 7347 3260 @IpsosMORIScot @IpsosMORI

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