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Power to the People? Beyond Populism

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On 31 January 2017, Ipsos held a major debate where we dissected the momentous political events of 2016 and looked forward to key elections in 2017. Our high profile pollsters from around the world examined political discontent and uncertainty, the key forces that are driving it and where in the world it is most prevalent and why. The panel included experts on the political context and public opinion in Britain, France, Italy, the US, Canada and South Africa, providing a wide range of perspectives on the key political challenges of our time.

Publicada em: Notícias e política
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Power to the People? Beyond Populism

  1. 1. POWER TO THE PEOPLE? BEYOND POPULISM #ipsosmorilive
  2. 2. 2 © 2015 Ipsos. Agenda Darrell Bricker Global CEO Public Affairs, Ipsos Canada 6 Nando Pagnoncelli President, Ipsos Italy 5 Mari Harris Director & Political Analyst, Ipsos S.A. Henri Wallard Global Chairman Public Affairs, Ipsos France 4 Ben Page CEO, Ipsos MORI UK 3 Cliff Young President Public Affairs, Ipsos U.S.
  3. 3. CLIFF YOUNG PRESIDENT, PUBLIC AFFAIRS IPSOS U.S.  @CliffAYoung
  4. 4. NEW POLITICAL SUPERCYCLE
  5. 5. 5 © 2015 Ipsos. Belief in a broken system…. Society is broken/in decline 57% Economy rigged for advantage of the rich and powerful 68% Feel like a stranger in my country 38% Need a strong leader to take it back from the rich and powerful 64% Confidence in institutions…. Political Parties 14% The Media 27%
  6. 6. 6 © 2015 Ipsos. Emergent belief system in Trumpian America
  7. 7. 7 © 2015 Ipsos. NATIVISM 45 45 70 72 56 55 When jobs are scarce, employers should prioritize hiring people of this country over… More and more, I don't identify with what America has become SYSTEMIS BROKEN All Republicans Democrats Source: Ipsos Polls, Sept 2015 & Jan 2016 Nativism & System is Broken: in US 82 71 56 68 70 69 In America today, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer Traditional parties and politicians don’t care about people like me
  8. 8. 8 © 2015 Ipsos. Nativism Increasingly Driving Identification as Republican Identify as Republican American Dream Anti-Big Government Anti-Abortion System is broken Worse off than parents Fear of Others Nativism/ Anti-Immigrant Authoritarianism
  9. 9. 9 © 2015 Ipsos. Nativism vs. System is Broken: Global Context Argentina Australia BelgiumBrazil Canada France Germany Hungary India Italy Japan Mexico Poland South Africa South Korea Spain Sweden Turkey Great Britain US Israel Peru SystemisBroken Nativism
  10. 10. 10 © 2015 Ipsos. Key Drivers: Nativism + System is Broken 13 17 19 23 26 27 28 30 30 31 34 36 36 40 40 41 41 43 45 48 50 South Africa Mexico Sweden India Japan Australia Israel Turkey Italy Germany South Korea All countries Belgium Poland Brazil Canada Great Britain Argentina US Spain France Relative importance explained
  11. 11. MARI HARRIS DIRECTOR & POLITICAL ANALYST IPSOS S.A.
  12. 12. 12 © 2015 Ipsos.12 The Pulse of the People Beyond Populism:
  13. 13. 13 © 2015 Ipsos.13 © 2017 Ipsos. In South Africa there was a surge in populism and populist politics since 2007 when Jacob Zuma became ANC leader – and especially since he became president in May 2009.
  14. 14. 14 © 2015 Ipsos.14 © 2017 Ipsos. This became more pronounced when the EFF was formed in 2013, the two populist parties now clashed head-on in Parliament.
  15. 15. 15 © 2015 Ipsos. 0 20 40 60 80 100 May'09 Nov'09 May'10 Nov'10 May'11 Nov'11 May'12 Nov'12 May'13 Nov'13 May'14 Nov'14 May'15 Nov'15 May'16 Nov'16 * Khayabus May 2009 - Dec 2016, F2F interviews, nationally representative WOULD YOU SAY THAT THE COUNTRY IS GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION OR IN THE WRONG DIRECTION?* % RIGHT WRONG
  16. 16. 16 © 2015 Ipsos. 0% 100% 53% say the country is going in the wrong direction (general public)* 0% 100% The SA society is broken / in decline 77% (elites)** *Khayabus December 2016; 3,564 F2F interviews, nationally representative **This is the highest in the world. World average 57% (Global @visor)
  17. 17. 17 © 2015 Ipsos. 62.15 22.23 6.35 9.27 53.91 26.9 8.19 11 5 22 10 54 63 26 8 12 MEASURING POLITICAL PARTY SUPPORT IN THE MIDST OF POPULIST POLITICS…. AN ART AND A SCIENCE* NATIONAL ELECTION 2014 % LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTION 2016 % 17 © 2017 Ipsos. OTHER PARTIES TOGETHER OTHER PARTIES TOGETHER IPSOS PREDICTION % ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS % *Khayabus, May 2014 , August 2016
  18. 18. 18 © 2015 Ipsos. 40% 46% 40% 62% 40% “There is no political party that represent my views” 62% says that President Zuma is NOT doing his job well 46% says the National Government is not doing their job well 40% says Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa is not doing his job well Trust in leadership is lacking* 18 © 2017 Ipsos. * Khayabus December 2016; 3,564 F2F interviews, nationally representative
  19. 19. 19 © 2015 Ipsos. DO NOT believe we need a strong leader DO NOT think politicians should say what is on their minds regardless of anyone else Believe globalisation is an opportunity AND 78% believe that we can recover But
  20. 20. 20 © 2015 Ipsos.20 © 2017 Ipsos. Looking at the current mood in SA, civil society and other indicators, we are moving towards “post-populism” and are focusing on “truth”! Many countries need to come to terms with “post–truth”, populist politicians & populism in society….
  21. 21. BEN PAGE CEO IPSOS MORI UK  @benatipsosmori
  22. 22. Was Brexit Populism?
  23. 23. 23 © 2015 Ipsos. Smells like populism…. NEW POLITICAL ACTOR TURNOUT HIGHER IN LEAVE AREAS – AND 2015 NON- VOTERS SWUNG LEAVE BY 3:2 DISTRUST OF EXPERTS/ CULTURAL DIVIDE Link between museum attendance and Remain vote Source: Dr Mark Taylor, Sheffield Methods Institute Photo source: By Euro Realist Newsletter - flickr.com, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=7670040
  24. 24. 24 © 2015 Ipsos. But if Brexit = populism then populism includes some pretty mainstream opinions….
  25. 25. 25 © 2015 Ipsos. Anti-Europeanism embedded for a long time The UK has not benefited from being part of the European Union Source: Eurobarometer 1983 56% 2011 54%
  26. 26. 26 © 2015 Ipsos. And while immigration especially important to UKIP – all voters are worried about it 4,002 British adults 18+ online, 14-25 April 2016 54 64 55 93 0 20 40 60 80 100 Conservative Labour LibDem UKIP % dissatisfied with the way the current govt is dealing with immigration
  27. 27. 27 © 2015 Ipsos. It lets the failures of the remain campaign off the hook • Only 3 in 10 thought Brexit would harm their standard of living • Leave messages much more believed
  28. 28. 28Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) • Brits mid-table on most ‘populism’ measures • And actually more in favour of foreign trade than most • Still looks like the Conservatives – not UKIP – most likely to be the winners in 2020 (and little sign of a Labour populist surge either….) In international terms, we remain more shopkeepers than revolutionaries…
  29. 29. HENRI WALLARD GLOBAL CHAIRMAN PUBLIC AFFAIRS IPSOS FRANCE  @henriwallard
  30. 30. 30 © 2015 Ipsos. Beyond populism France
  31. 31. 31 © 2015 Ipsos. Unemployment ImmigrationConcerns Authority Decline Direction
  32. 32. 32 © 2015 Ipsos. OF THE FRENCH THINK THAT THE NEXT GENERATION WILL LIVE A WORSE LIFE Les 4500, Observatoire Ipsos des modes de vie et de consommation, France, 2016. 66% Decline The “Social lift” is still not working
  33. 33. 33 © 2015 Ipsos. Rejection of foreigners Immigration 87% of the French believe the number of immigrants has been increasing over the last five years • Only 11% consider this has had a positive impact • 57% feel there are too many immigrants in the country • 67 % think there are terrorists among the immigrants • 54 % believe that most of the people who declare themselves as refugees are not really refugees • 63% think that refugees will not be successfully integrated A Global @dvisory – June 2016 – G@ “Immigration”
  34. 34. 34 © 2015 Ipsos. A TRUE LEADER IS NEEDED TO BRING BACK SOME ORDER Authority AUTHORITY AS A VALUE IS TOO OFTEN CRITICISED 88% 87% Authority
  35. 35. 35 © 2015 Ipsos. “THEY'RE ALL ROTTEN” Populism Vs. Elitism
  36. 36. 36 © 2015 Ipsos. OF FRENCH PEOPLE THINK THAT MOST POLITICIANS ARE CORRUPT OF FRENCH PEOPLE THINK THAT POLITICIANS DO NOT CARE WHAT PEOPLE THINK 88% OF FRENCH PEOPLE THINK THAT POLITICIANS ACT MAINLY FOR THEIR OWN PERSONAL INTERESTS 89% Declinism OF FRENCH PEOPLE THINK THAT FRANCE IS IN DECLINE 86% Crisis of authority & exemplary behaviour MistrustInternet turning into counter-information 77% OF FRENCH PEOPLE NOT TRUST THE MEDIA Fuelling Populism “The system is broken” 75 %
  37. 37. 37 © 2015 Ipsos. 2017 and later ?
  38. 38. NANDO PAGNONCELLI PRESIDENT IPSOS ITALY  @NPagnoncelli
  39. 39. 39 © 2015 Ipsos. POWER TO THE PEOPLE? Beyond Populism
  40. 40. 40 © 2015 Ipsos. BACK TO THE FUTURE? THE EARLY SIGNS SCENARIO: A POLITICAL CRISIS (corruption, bribes) • A media tycoon, he claims his extraneousness from the political world, with its rites and its flaws • He enters the political arena motivated by a sense of responsibility • Primacy to the people has to be restored • The people’s spokeperson, speaks a plain language • Unites a social block Ring a bell? 1994, SILVIO BERLUSCONI
  41. 41. 41 © 2015 Ipsos. 41 • Crisis • Tycoon • Sense of responsibility • Primacy to the people • Speaks a plain language • Unites a social block
  42. 42. 42 © 2015 Ipsos. © 2015 Ipsos.42 • Crisis • Comedian • Sense of responsibility • Primacy to the people (in the internet) • Speaks a plain language • Unites a social block
  43. 43. AGAINST
  44. 44. 44 © 2015 Ipsos. GIACHETTI DEMOCRATIC PARTY RAGGI 5STARS MOVEMENT 67,1% 32,9% A rift opens AGAINST THE POWERS
  45. 45. 45 © 2015 Ipsos.© 2017 Ipsos SALZBURG LINZ WIEN GRAZ KLAGENFURT INNSBRUCK This is not only about Italy AGAINST THE POWERS
  46. 46. 46 © 2015 Ipsos. EDINBURGH MANCHESTER LONDON BIRMINGHAM CARDIFF BELFAST LIVERPOOL 50% 80% LEAVE REMAIN This is not only about Italy AGAINST THE POWERS
  47. 47. 49% 85% 65% 65% 64% 60% 57% 56% 56% 55% 54% 51% 50% 49% 44% 43% 43% 41% 40% 35% 33% 31% 12% Totale Turchia Italia Sud Africa Russia Belgio Francia Arabia Saudita India Ungheria Argentina Stati Uniti Germania Gran Bretagna Australia Svezia Messico Canada Spagna Brasile Polonia Sud Korea Giappone strongly + fairly agree “There are too many immigrants in our Country” 44% 79% 67% 65% 63% 62% 62% 60% 60% 56% 56% 53% 53% 47% 46% 45% 41% 36% 34% 31% 31% 30% 29% 23% 22% 22% 20% 11% 8% EU28 EL BG IT SI HR CY ES RO LT HU FR SK PT LV CZ EE PL AT BE MT UK DE IE NL FI SE LU DK “Satisfied with the way democracy works in your Country? Source : Global @dvisor Source: Eurobarometer IMMIGRATION AND POLITICS: worries transformed into success factors % not satisfied
  48. 48. 48 © 2015 Ipsos. Enemies, audience and keywords AGAINST THE SYSTEM The ENEMIES Euro and EU Finance, Banks Experts DIRECT DEMOCRACY INTERNET SOVEREIGNTY The AUDIENCE SME’s, artisans, workers, unemployed POLITICIANSIMMIGRANTS IMMIGRATION ITALIANS FIRST CORRUPTION
  49. 49. 49 © 2015 Ipsos. The Excluded: the electors profile of Lega and M5S AGAINST THE SYSTEM Young and adultsAdults Workers and self- employed Unemployed, students Workers and self- employed Medium – lower educated Medium – lower educated Small towns inhabitants Men
  50. 50. 50 © 2015 Ipsos. Source: Ipsos 57 52 48 47 45 43 38 Senators number cut: 315 to 100 Closure of National Economy & Labour Counsel Limitation of Senate powers Change in the rules of referendums Elimination of Provinces Combined legislative powers Gov and Regions Elections of Senators 4041424342 27-Oct-1620-Oct-1613-Oct-1606-Oct-1629-Sep-16 The issues at stake in the Italian referendum FOR OR AGAINST THE CHANGE? % agreeISSUES OVERALL
  51. 51. 51 © 2015 Ipsos. What was the Italian referendum really about? FOR OR AGAINST ME! YES 40,9% NO 59,1%
  52. 52. 52 © 2015 Ipsos. One question
  53. 53. 53 © 2015 Ipsos. Who’s the populist, now? BEYOND POPULISM “The CEO of Goldman Sachs let his employees know that he’d be just fine with either Bush or Clinton. Well, I’ve got news for the bullies of Wall Street. The presidency is not a crown to be passed back and forth by you between two royal families.” Do not ask politicians to cut their budgets. Do it yourself. Vote YES ! WE WILL SAVE 500 MILLION € PER YEAR
  54. 54. DARRELL BRICKER GLOBAL CEO PUBLIC AFFAIRS IPSOS CANADA  @darrellbricker
  55. 55. 55 © 2015 Ipsos. THE VIEW FROM CANADA: FINAL THOUGHTS
  56. 56. 56 © 2015 Ipsos. 56
  57. 57. 57 © 2015 Ipsos.
  58. 58. 58 © 2015 Ipsos. The Canadian Exception? • Canadians value compromise and tolerance. How weak, young nation stays together. • Values have evolved over time – not specific to this current government or leader. • These values not central to outcome of last election. • “Great Economic Disruption” of 2008 missed Canada. Inequality issue less salient. • Canada brings in most immigrants per capita. But, mostly economic, not humanitarian. Nothing new. • All drivers of disruption more muted. Not seeking radical political solutions. • Confluence of events plus poor management could create Canadian version of what is happening elsewhere. But, it will always be a Canadian version.
  59. 59. 59 © 2015 Ipsos. There’s something happening here. What it is ain’t exactly clear. For What It’s Worth Buffalo Springfield. 1967
  60. 60. 60 © 2015 Ipsos. Populism
  61. 61. 61 © 2015 Ipsos. What Does It Add Up To? • More than populism – need a new term. • Combination of forces - nativism, system is broken, rejection of authority and expertise, end of progress, leading to disruptive elections and unexpected political outcomes. • Given universality of forces, setting up for on-going period of political uncertainty and instability.
  62. 62. 62 © 2015 Ipsos. Some big tests ahead • March: Netherlands • May: France • September: Germany • By December: South Korea • 2018 (or earlier): Italy
  63. 63. 63 © 2015 Ipsos. All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina
  64. 64. #ipsosmorilive Q&A
  65. 65. #ipsosmorilive THANKS FOR LISTENING!

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