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Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI
Last year we asked:  is 2015 in the bag?
But a year is a (very)long time in politics
So what’s changed?And what’s stayed thesame?
Last year you were broadly holding on to                                                                                  ...
And did so up until April…                                                                                                ...
But then…
Labour have held an 11 point lead since May                                                                               ...
2010 voters last year…                                                                                                    ...
2010 voters now…                                                                                                        11...
Where have Conservative voters gone?                                                                                      ...
Where have Conservative voters gone?                                                                                      ...
The image of the party has suffered…                                                                                      ...
The image of the party has suffered…                                                                                      ...
Satisfaction with the government is falling                                                                               ...
As are Cameron’s ratings…                                                                                                 ...
While Ed’s have steadied                                                                                                  ...
We’re not all in it together any more                                                                             19Who, i...
As Labour have regained the lead in key areas of                                                                          ...
Some pre-existing negative perceptions havebeen reinforced                                                                ...
But somethingshaven’tchanged…
All the parties struggle to get their point across                                                                        ...
Unemployment                   24                                                                                         ...
And you’re still seen as the best party on the                                                                            ...
Our politician of2011…
…is still seen as the better leader                                                                                       ...
Food for thought1.   The party has taken a knock this year – and among     all voters, not in one direction above all othe...
Ipsos MORI: Beyond the Bubble: the Voters' Verdict - Conservative Party Conference 2012
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Ipsos MORI: Beyond the Bubble: the Voters' Verdict - Conservative Party Conference 2012

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8 October 2012: At our Conservative Party Conference Fringe vent, we presented new polling on what the public thinks of each party, along with analysis of long-term Ipsos MORI trend data to put the findings into context.

Publicada em: Notícias e política
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Ipsos MORI: Beyond the Bubble: the Voters' Verdict - Conservative Party Conference 2012

  1. 1. Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI
  2. 2. Last year we asked: is 2015 in the bag?
  3. 3. But a year is a (very)long time in politics
  4. 4. So what’s changed?And what’s stayed thesame?
  5. 5. Last year you were broadly holding on to 5 election level supportHow would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 2010 UK recession General 2010 Q4 Election5040 37% 35%3020 13%10 0 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  6. 6. And did so up until April… 6How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 2010 UK recession Euro veto General 2010 Q4 Dec 2011 Election5040 38% 35%3020 12%10 0 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  7. 7. But then…
  8. 8. Labour have held an 11 point lead since May 8How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 2010 UK recession Euro veto Local elections General 2010 Q4 Dec 2011 2012 Election5040 41%30 30%20 13%10 0 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  9. 9. 2010 voters last year… 10 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Voted Tory Voted Labour Voted LD in 2010 in 2010 in 2010 Still Con/Lab/LD and certain to vote Still Con/Lab/LD, not certain to vote Not Con/Lab/LD any more 12% 19% 27% 25% 57% 22% 59% 63% 16%Base: 4,164 GB adults 18+, January-April 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  10. 10. 2010 voters now… 11 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Voted Tory Voted Labour Voted LD in 2010 in 2010 in 2010 Still Con/Lab/LD and certain to vote Still Con/Lab/LD, not certain to vote Not Con/Lab/LD any more 14% 27% 10% 35% 58% 60% 13% 76% 7%Base: 6,043 GB adults 18+, April-September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  11. 11. Where have Conservative voters gone? 12 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Voted Tory in 2010 Still Con and certain to vote Still Con, not certain to vote Not Con/Lab/LD any more 27% 60% 13%Base: 6,043 GB adults 18+, April-September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  12. 12. Where have Conservative voters gone? 13 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Voted Tory in 2010 Still Con and certain to vote Still Con, not certain to vote Not Con/Lab/LD any more Would not vote/undecided 10% To BNP <0.5% To UKIP 5% To Liberal Democrats 3% To Labour 5% (Includes those with a voting Intention but not certain to vote)Base: 6,043 GB adults 18+, April-September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  13. 13. The image of the party has suffered… 14I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about variouspolitical parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the… Understands the problems 41% Conservative party facing Britain -9 35%Has a good team of leaders -9 45% Fit to govern -5 19% Keeps its promises -5 62% Divided +13 51% Out of date +9Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  14. 14. The image of the party has suffered… 15I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about variouspolitical parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the… Understands the problems 41% 55% facing Britain 42% 35% Conservative partyHas a good team of leaders 33% 26% Labour party 45% Fit to govern 40% 21% Liberal Democrats 19% Keeps its promises 26% 14% Will promise anything to 65% 66% win votes 66% 62% Divided 49% 65% 29% Extreme 18% 18% Looks after the interest of 29% 45% people like me 31% 51% Out of date 44% 43%Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  15. 15. Satisfaction with the government is falling 16How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?LABOUR: 1997 - 2010 1987 GE 1983 GE Net satisfaction JOHN MAJOR 1992 GE BECOMES PM Number of months from new government taking power 2001 GE 2005 GE CONSERVATIVES: 1979-1997 GORDON BROWN BECOMES PM COALITION: 2010-2012 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
  16. 16. As are Cameron’s ratings… 17How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? CAMERON Net satisfaction Number of months from becoming Prime Minister THATCHER CLEGG BLAIR MAJOR BROWN Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephoneBase: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  17. 17. While Ed’s have steadied 18How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? BLAIR (1994-1997) CAMERON (2005-2010) Net satisfaction HOWARD (2003-2005) Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader MILIBAND (2010-2012) HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  18. 18. We’re not all in it together any more 19Who, if anyone, do you think will benefit most from the measures the Chancellor will announce inthe Budget next week?Those on low incomes 17%Those on medium incomes 18%Those on high incomes 50%No-one will benefit 4%Budget will affect everyoneequally 2%Don’t know 8% Base: 1,014 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th March 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  19. 19. As Labour have regained the lead in key areas of 20reformWhich party do you think has the best policies on health care, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democratsor some other party?7060 -30 Healthcare50 46%4030 -1220 16%10 7% 0 -4 Sep-88 Sep-89 Sep-90 Sep-91 Sep-92 Sep-93 Sep-94 Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Mar-88 Mar-89 Mar-90 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month -13 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  20. 20. Some pre-existing negative perceptions havebeen reinforced 21“Which political party, if any, do you think would be the best at looking after theinterests of women?” February 2010 September 2012 19% 12% Labour 20% 20% Conservative 7% Lib Dem 10% Other 34% 13% 26% 6% None Don’t know 16% 17% Conservative lead = -6 Conservative lead = -22Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  21. 21. But somethingshaven’tchanged…
  22. 22. All the parties struggle to get their point across 23 To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? I don’t know what the I don’t know what the I don’t know what the Conservative Party Labour Party stands Liberal Democrats stands for these days for these days stand for these days Don’t know StronglyStronglydisagree 3% agree Disagree 3% Disagree 4% 21% 11% 17% 29% 28% 23% 9% 43% 35% 44% 18% 14% 57% 26% 23% Agree 9% 11% 64% 10% 29% Tend to 29% Agree Tend todisagree agree Neither/nor Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 21st - 23rd April 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  23. 23. Unemployment 24 Europe/EU Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index Economy Sep 12 Jun 12 Mar 12 Dec 11 Sep 11 Jun 11 Mar 11The economy has been the number 1 issue of Dec 10 Sep 10 Jun 10 Mar 10 Dec 09 Sep 09 Jun 09 Mar 09 Dec 08 Sep 08 What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Jun 08 Mar 08 Dec 07 Sep 07 Jun 07 Mar 07 Dec 06 Sep 06 Jun 06 Mar 06 Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Dec 05 Sep 05 Jun 05 Mar 05 Dec 04 Sep 04 Jun 04 Mar 04 Dec 03 Sep 03 Jun 03 Mar 03 Dec 02concern since 2008 Sep 02 Jun 02 Mar 02 Dec 01 Sep 01 Jun 01 Mar 01 Dec 00 Sep 00 Jun 00 Mar 00 Dec 99 Sep 99 Jun 99 Mar 99 Dec 98 Sep 98 Jun 98 Mar 98 Dec 97 Sep 97 Jun 97 0 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
  24. 24. And you’re still seen as the best party on the 25economyWhich party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, LiberalDemocrats or some other party?5040 Although:30 30% Unemployment: 13 points behind Labour 25%2010 7% 0 Sep-90 Sep-91 Sep-92 Sep-93 Sep-94 Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Mar-90 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  25. 25. Our politician of2011…
  26. 26. …is still seen as the better leader 27In your opinion, which party leader, David Cameron or Ed Miliband, is stronger on each of the following? Eloquent 59% 15% Prime Ministerial 57% 17% Tough enough for the job of PM 54% 18% Smart enough for the job of PM 54% 22% Represents Britain 46% 26% Likeable 38% 29% Cameron Has the right values 37% Miliband 35% Is a good person 35% 30% A man of faith 34% 16% Would be fun to meet in person 34% 21% Will protect British jobs 31% 37% Understands people like me 26% 36%Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  27. 27. Food for thought1. The party has taken a knock this year – and among all voters, not in one direction above all others2. David Cameron is still an asset (especially when compared to Ed Miliband – at least until before conferences)3. The economy, the economy, the economy…

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