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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2016

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One week following George Osborne’s budget announcement Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor show his satisfaction ratings have fallen compared to one month ago. Three in five (60%) say they are dissatisfied with the performance of Mr Osborne (up 14 points from February) compared to one in four (27%) who say they are satisfied (down 13 points). This equals George Osborne’s worst performance in March 2013. Mr Osborne still has the backing of most of his party with three in five (58%) Conservative supporters saying they are satisfied with the Chancellor (although 31% are dissatisfied).

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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2016

  1. 1. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 1 March 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR
  2. 2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2 VOTING INTENTIONS
  3. 3. 3Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 752. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out. Voting Intention 36% 35% 12% 3% 9% 5% ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +1 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +2 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM OTHER 36% 34% 11% 3% 10% 6%
  4. 4. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 4 SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
  5. 5. 5Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public 24% 36% 41% ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF UKIP? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016 When asked about Nigel Farage and Tim Farron the sample was split sampled with 521 and 502 British adults 18+ asked about each respectively. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 35% 46% 19% 34% 59% 7% 38% 40% 22% 32% 61% 7% -5% swing from February 2016 +5% swing from February 2016 +6.5% swing from February 2016 +1% swing from February 2016 -1.5% swing from February 2016 -25 Net -11 Net -2 Net -12 Net -29 Net SATISFIED 34% SATISFIED 35% SATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 24% SATISFIED 32% DISSATISFIED 59% DISSATISFIED 46% DISSATISFIED 40% DISSATISFIED 36% DISSATISFIED 61%
  6. 6. 6Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Satisfaction with Party leaders Feb’09 – Mar’16 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 CAMERON FARAGE CORBYN FARRON 34% 38% 35% 24%
  7. 7. 7Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER Netsatisfaction NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
  8. 8. 8Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY / AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016 David Cameron (satisfaction) 34% 59% 7% March 2016 MAY 2006 –March 2016 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone SATISFIED 34% DISSATISFIED 59% DON’T KNOW 7% Net = -25 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  9. 9. 9Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 297 Conservative supporters 18+ 19th – 22nd March 2016 David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters) March 2016 MAY 2006 –March 2016 Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone 68% 21% 11% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 May06 Aug06 Jan07 Jun07 Sep07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 SATISFIED 68% DISSATISFIED 21% DON’T KNOW 11% Net = +47 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  10. 10. 10Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 SATISFIED 35% DISSATISFIED 46% DON’T KNOW 19% Net = -11 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction) March 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015 – March 2016 Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone 35% 46% 19% Satisfied Dissatisfied
  11. 11. 11Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 SATISFIED 59% DISSATISFIED 28% DON’T KNOW 13% Net = -2159% 28% 13% ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 303 Labour supporters 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters) March 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015 – March 2016 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  12. 12. 12Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 SATISFIED 24% DISSATISFIED 36% DON’T KNOW 40% Net = -12 24% 36% 40% ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 502 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016 Tim Farron (satisfaction) March 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015 – March 2016 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  13. 13. 13Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-152 Apr-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 SATISFIED 38% DISSATISFIED 40% DON’T KNOW 22% Net = -2 38% 40% 22% ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 521 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016 Nigel Farage (satisfaction) March 2016 MARCH 2013 – March 2016 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  14. 14. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 14 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
  15. 15. 15Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 May-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 IMPROVE 23% STAY THE SAME 32% GET WORSE 40% DON’T KNOW 5% EOI = -17 23% 32% 40% 5% DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016 Economic Optimism Index March 2016
  16. 16. 16Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016 The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Feb1998 Sep1998 Apr1999 Nov1999 Jun2000 Jan2001 Aug2001 Mar2002 Oct2002 May2003 Dec2003 Jul2004 Feb2005 Sep2005 Apr2006 Nov2006 Jun2007 Jan2008 Aug2008 Mar2009 Oct2009 May2010 Dec2010 Jul2011 Feb2012 Sep2012 Apr2013 Nov2013 Jun2014 Jan2015 Aug2015 Mar2016 -17
  17. 17. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 17 EUROPE
  18. 18. 18Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public 49% 41% 8%2% *% 43% 36% 20% 2% *% QA) ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION QA/B COMBINED) ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION QA) AS YOU MAY KNOW THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL HAVE A REFERENDUM ON ITS MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION ON THE 23RD OF JUNE THIS YEAR. HOW WILL YOU VOTE ON THE QUESTION – SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016 European Referendum voting intention REMAIN LEAVE UNDECIDED WOULD NOT VOTE REFUSED QB TO ALL UNDECIDED/REFUSED) WHICH WAY WOULD YOU BE MOST INCLINED TO VOTE?
  19. 19. 19Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN / LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: All expressing an opinion on how they will vote 928 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016 Have the EU referendum voters decided yet? 57% 58% 63% 64% 40% 39% 35% 33% 3% 3% 2% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW
  20. 20. 20Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public WHICH OF THESE HAS BEEN MORE IMPORTANT IN YOUR DECISION TO VOTE TO REMAIN IN / LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION? BECAUSE YOU ARE HOPEFUL FOR THE FUTURE IF THE REMAIN IN / LEAVE SIDE WINS, OR BECAUSE YOU ARE FEARFUL FOR THE FUTURE IF THE REMAIN IN / LEAVE SIDE LOSES? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: All expressing an opinion on how they will vote 928 British / All saying Remain (541) and all saying Leave (387) adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016 Are voters hopeful or fearful for the future? 51% 39% 5% 5% All expressing an opinion on how they will vote HOPEFUL FOR THE FUTURE FEARFUL FOR THE FUTURE NEITHER DON’T KNOW 54%39% 4%3% 48% 39% 6% 7% All voting Remain All voting Leave
  21. 21. 21Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public AS YOU MAY KNOW DAVID CAMERON IS CAMPAIGNING FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION. IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, DO YOU THINK THAT DAVID CAMERON SHOULD RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER OR SHOULD HE CONTINUE BEING PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016 What future for David Cameron? 48% 44% 1% 8% RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER CONTINUE AS PRIME MINISTER NEITHER DON’T KNOW
  22. 22. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 22 CHANCELLOR
  23. 23. 23Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public 27% 60% 13% CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY GEORGE OSBORNE IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016 George Osborne (satisfaction) March 2016 JUNE 2010 –March 2016 Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone SATISFIED 27% DISSATISFIED 60% DON’T KNOW 13% Net = -33 Dissatisfied Satisfied 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Mar-13 Apr-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 Mar-16
  24. 24. 24Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public 66% 44% 67% 52% 45% 45% 34% 39% 44% 42% 37% 39% 36%37% 18% 31% 17% 24% 28% 38% 34% 52% 44% 56% 45% 42% 48% 52% 34% 41% 55% 57% 48% 46% 49% 47% 42% 32% 28% 36% 40% 36% 38% 28%27% 47% 43%44% 35% 40% 27% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Mar-76 Mar-77 Apr-78 Jul-80 Mar-82 Jun-83 Mar-85 Mar-86 Mar-87 Mar-88 Mar-89 Mar-90 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Dec-93 Dec-94 Nov-95 Dec-95 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jul-97 Feb-98 Mar-98 Mar-99 Feb-00 Mar-00 Jul-00 Sep-00 Nov-00 Mar-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Mar-04 Nov-05 Feb-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Mar-08 Mar-10 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Mar-13 Apr-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY GEORGE OSBORNE IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016 George Osborne (satisfaction) Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone % saying ‘satisfied’ Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Darling Osborne
  25. 25. 25Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public ON BALANCE DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT: IN THE LONG TERM, THIS GOVERNMENT’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE THE STATE OF BRITAIN’S ECONOMY Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016 Does the government have the right policies for 6 7 5 8 47 39 47 49 46 53 48 43 Mar-12 Mar-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 AGREE DISAGREE DON’T KNOW Britain’s economy?
  26. 26. 26Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS 2016 BUDGET LAST WEEK. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD OR BAD THING…? Budget proposals 22 17 24 35 38 40 43 45 35 Apr-14 Jul-15 Mar-16 19 10 17 33 44 53 48 46 30 Apr-14 Jul-15 Mar-16 29% 53% 18% For the next generation For you personally For the country GOOD THING BAD THING DON’T KNOW Base: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016
  27. 27. 27Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public PLEASE CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE FOLLOWING POLICIES? Policy support Putting a new tax on soft drinks high in sugar (for example, the tax on a standard sized can could be between 6-8p depending on the level of sugar) Cutting disability benefits for those who need help with daily living, for example who need aids like specialist toilet seats or grab rails 69% 26% 5% 13% 84% 3% SUPPORT OPPOSE DON’T KNOW Base: 1,023 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd March 2016
  28. 28. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 28 March 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

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