The January Ipsos MORI Political Monitor shows the highest level of support Ipsos MORI has recorded for UKIP in this long running series of national voting intentions. Among those who say they are certain to vote at an immediate general election 9% say they would vote for UKIP. See http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3113/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-2013.aspx for more information.

1. POLITICAL MONITOR
January 2013
Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com
Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com
Tomasz.Mludzinski@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000

2. Voting Intentions

3. Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those
“certain to vote”
3
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
All giving a voting All certain to vote: 58%
intention: 82%
8% 10%
Labour 7% 9%
31% 30%
Conservative
9%
Lib Dem
8%
UKIP
Other
45% 43%
Conservative lead = -14 Conservative lead = -13
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th -14th January 2013, all certain to vote = 628 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

4. Voting Intentions January ‘03 – January ‘13
(all certain to vote)
4
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
2005
Howard elected General Brown as PM 2010
(Nov 03) (Jun 07) General
Election
Cameron elected Election
50
(Dec 05)
43%
40
30 30%
20
10 8%
0
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Aug-03
Dec-03
Aug-04
Dec-04
Aug-05
Dec-05
Aug-06
Dec-06
Aug-07
Dec-07
Aug-08
Dec-08
Aug-09
Dec-09
Aug-10
Dec-10
Aug-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Dec-12
Feb-03
Feb-04
Feb-05
Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Base: c. 1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

5. Satisfaction with the Coalition
and Party Leaders

6. Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 6
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister
/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party?
Net change
Net from Dec’
% Dissatisfied % Satisfied satisfaction 2012
David Cameron 59 34 -25 -6
Nick Clegg 61 28 -33 n/c
Ed Miliband 48 36 -12 -9
64 27 -37 -4
The Government
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

7. 7
36%
28%
34%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Cameron
Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – January ‘13
Sep-12
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
Clegg
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Miliband
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
Mar-11
Feb-11
Jan-11
Election
General
Dec-10
Nov-10
Oct-10
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Brown
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Clegg elected
Aug-08
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
Jul-08
(Jan 08) Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Campbell
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
% satisfied

8. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers 8
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
CAMERON
Net satisfaction
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
THATCHER
BLAIR
MAJOR
BROWN
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

9. David Cameron (satisfaction) 9
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
January 2013 January 2006 – January 2013
Don’t know Satisfied
70
Dissatisfied
6% 60
50
34%
40
30
Satisfied
20
59% 10
0
Dissatisfied
Net = -25 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

10. David Cameron 10
(satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
January 2013 January 2006 – January 2013
Don’t know
Satisfied 100
5% 90
Dissatisfied 80
70
20% Satisfied
60
50
40
Dissatisfied
30
20
10
75% 0
Net = +55 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: 265 Conservative supporters 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

11. Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders 11
(1994 – 2013)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
BLAIR (1994-1997)
CAMERON (2005-2010)
Net satisfaction
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
MILIBAND (2010-2012)
HAGUE (1997-2001)
DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

12. Ed Miliband (satisfaction) 12
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
January 2013 October 2010 – January 2013
Don’t know Satisfied
60 Dissatisfied
16%
50
36% 40
30
Satisfied
20
48% 10
Dissatisfied
Net = -12
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

13. Ed Miliband 13
(satisfaction among Labour supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
January 2013 October 2010 – January 2013
Don’t know Satisfied
70
11% 60
Satisfied
50
40
30
53% Dissatisfied
35% 20
10
0
Dissatisfied
Net = +18
Base: 368 Labour supporters 18+, 12th-14th January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

14. Nick Clegg (satisfaction) 14
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
January 2013 January 2008 – January 2013
Don’t know Satisfied 70 Dissatisfied
11% 60
28% 50
40
30
20 Satisfied
10
0
61%
Dissatisfied
Net = -33 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

15. Nick Clegg 15
(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters*)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
January 2013 January 2008 – January 2013
Don’t know Satisfied
100
Dissatisfied 9% 90
80
Satisfied
70
60
42% 50
40
30
20
49% Dissatisfied
10
0
Net = -7 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology;
data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
*Please note the small base size
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 82 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 12th -14th January 2013

16. Economic Optimism

17. Economic Optimism Index 17
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
January 2013
80
Don’t know
70
Improve Get worse
3% 60 Stay the same
21%
50
40
43% 30
20
33% 10 Improve
Get worse 0
Jan-04
Jun-10
Oct-05
Apr-09
Oct-12
Aug-04
Dec-06
Jul-07
Sep-08
Jan-11
Mar-05
Feb-08
Mar-12
Aug-11
May-06
Nov-09
Stay the same
EOI = -22
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

18. Index (get better minus get worse)
20
40
0
-80
-60
-40
-20
Feb-97
May-97
Aug-97
+28
Nov-97
Feb-98
May-98
Aug-98
Nov-98
Feb-99
May-99
Aug-99
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
Nov-99
over the next 12 months?
Feb-00
-46
May-00
Aug-00
Nov-00
Feb-01
May-01
Aug-01
Nov-01
Feb-02
-56
May-02
Aug-02
Nov-02
Feb-03
May-03
Aug-03
Nov-03
Feb-04
May-04
Aug-04
Nov-04
Feb-05
May-05
Aug-05
Nov-05
Feb-06
May-06
Aug-06
Nov-06
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
-64
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
+23
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
-48
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
-6
18
-22