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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor April 2018

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The April 2018 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor shows more people have become dissatisfied with Jeremy Corbyn while Ruth Davidson leads other Conservative Cabinet Ministers as Prime Ministerial material.

Publicada em: Notícias e política
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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor April 2018

  1. 1. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 1 Ipsos MORIPOLITICAL MONITOR April 2018
  2. 2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2 VOTING INTENTIONS
  3. 3. 3Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,004 British adults 18+, 20-24 April 2018; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 745. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% Voting Intention ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -4 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +1 41% 40% 10% 2% 2% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP GREEN 38% 42% 10% 2% 3% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP GREEN
  4. 4. 4Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election 2015 General Election CONSERVATIVE LABOUR 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 May15 Jun15 Jul15 Aug15 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Oct17 Nov17 Dec17 Jan18 Feb18 Mar18 Apr18 Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16)
  5. 5. 5Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan04 Apr04 Jul04 Oct04 Jan05 Apr05 Jul05 Oct05 Jan06 Apr06 Jul06 Oct06 Jan07 Apr07 Jul07 Oct07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct08 Jan09 Apr09 Jul09 Oct09 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 Jan16 Apr16 Jul16 Oct16 Jan17 Apr17 Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 2015 General Election Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – April ‘18 2005 General Election 2010 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07) CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
  6. 6. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 6 SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
  7. 7. 7Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? Theresa May Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,004 British adults 18+ 20-24 April 2018. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 30% 63% 8% 38% 55% 7% 32% 59% 10% Jeremy Corbyn The Government -3% swing from March 2018 -6% swing from March 2018 +2.5% swing from March 2018 -0.5% swing from March 2018 -17 Net -27 Net -7 Net -33 Net SATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 32% SATISFIED 28% SATISFIED 30% DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 59% DISSATISFIED 35% DISSATISFIED 63% 28% 35% 37% Vince Cable
  8. 8. 8Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR/LIB DEM PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month. Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Apr 2018 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Oct17 Nov17 Dec17 Jan18 Feb18 Mar18 Apr18 MAY CORBYN CABLE 38% 32% 28%
  9. 9. 9Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2018) MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER Netsatisfaction Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone May Number of months after becoming Prime Minister
  10. 10. 10Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2018) Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Hague (97-01) Duncan Smith (01-03) Howard (03-05) Cameron (05-10) Blair (94-97) Miliband (10-15) Corbyn (15-present) Kinnock (83-92) Foot (80-83) Smith (92-94) Number of months after becoming Opposition Leader Netsatisfaction Corbyn
  11. 11. 11Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,004 British adults 18+ 20th April – 24th April 2018 Theresa May (satisfaction) 38% 55% 7% April 2018 August 2016 – April 2018 SATISFIED 38% DISSATISFIED 55% DON’T KNOW 7% Net = -17 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  12. 12. 12Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 340 Conservative supporters 18+ 20th April – 24th April 2018 Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters) 77% 19% 4% April 2018 SATISFIED 77% DISSATISFIED 19% DON’T KNOW 4% Net = +58 August 2016 – April 2018 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  13. 13. 13Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public 32% 59% 10% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 SATISFIED 32% DISSATISFIED 59% DON’T KNOW 10% Net = -27 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,004 British adults 18+ 20th April – 24th April 2018 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction) April 2018 September 2015 – April 2018 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  14. 14. 14Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public 60% 34% 6% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 SATISFIED 60% DISSATISFIED 34% DON’T KNOW 6% Net = +26 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 325 Labour supporters 18+ 20th April – 24th April 2018 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters) April 2018 September 2015 – April 2018 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  15. 15. 15Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public 28% 35% 37% SATISFIED 28% DISSATISFIED 35% DON’T KNOW 37% Net = -7 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Vince Cable (satisfaction) April 2018 Base: 1,004 British adults 18+ 20th April – 24th April 2018 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 September 2017 – April 2018 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  16. 16. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 16 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
  17. 17. 17Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public 23% 28% 46% 3% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 IMPROVE 23% STAY THE SAME 28% GET WORSE 46% DON’T KNOW 3% EOI = -23 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,004 British adults 18+ 20th April – 24th April 2018 Economic Optimism Index April 2018
  18. 18. 18Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Consistent levels of economic pessimism since July 2017 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jan1998 Oct1998 Jul1999 Apr2000 Jan2001 Oct2001 Jul2002 Apr2003 Jan2004 Oct2004 Jul2005 Apr2006 Jan2007 Oct2007 Jul2008 Apr2009 Jan2010 Oct2010 Jul2011 Apr2012 Jan2013 Oct2013 Jul2014 Apr2015 Jan2016 Oct2016 Jul2017 Apr2018 -23
  19. 19. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 19 Leader Image
  20. 20. 20Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO ……? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Leader image: May vs Corbyn Base: 1,004 British adults 18+ 20th April – 24th April 2018 73% 43% 46% 41% 50% 44% 31% 40% 16% 64% 44% 25% 32% 31% 47% 45% 27% 47% 39% 39% Patriotic Good in a crisis Capable leader Has sound judgement Understands problems facing GB Has a clear vision for Britain More style than substance More honest than most… Has got a lot of personality Out of touch with ordinary people May Corbyn May lead Corbyn lead
  21. 21. 21Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO THERESA MAY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor May’s image ratings similar to September 2017 73% 64% 50% 46% 44% 43% 41% 40% 31% 16% 72% 66% 49% 45% 45% 40% 36% 36% 36% 21% 75% 43% 61% 68% 55% 52% 56% 44% 25% 37% Patriotic Out of touch with ordinary people Understands the problems facing Britain Capable leader Has a clear vision for Britain Good in a crisis Has sound judgement More honest than most politicians More style than substance Has got a lot of personality Apr-18 Sep-17 Sep-16 Base: 1,004 British adults 18+ 20th April – 24th April 2018
  22. 22. 22Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO JEREMY CORBYN? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Corbyn’s image ratings have fallen since Sept 2017 32% 23% 32% 49% 39% 25% 41% 47% 37% 54% 24% 18% 30% 44% 44% 24% 32% 38% 49% 52% 38% 30% 40% 52% 32% 28% 47% 47% 46% 55% 32% 25% 31% 47% 39% 27% 39% 45% 44% 47% Capable leader Good in a crisis Has sound judgement Understands the problems facing Britain Out of touch with ordinary people More style than substance Has got a lot of personality Has a clear vision for Britain Patriotic More honest than most politicians Apr-18 Sep-17 Sep-16 Sep-15Base: 1,004 British adults 18+ 20th April – 24th April 2018
  23. 23. 23Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER Theresa May leads the field as having what it takes to be a good PM – Johnson and Gove have the most critics 6% 11% 12% 17% 29% 30% 44% 60% 36% 28% 11% 41% 11% 10% 34% 52% 60% 72% 29% 58% 47% Gavin Williamson Amber Rudd Michael Gove Boris Johnson Ruth Davidson Jeremy Corbyn Theresa May Agree Disagree Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,004 British adults 18+ 20th April – 24th April 2018
  24. 24. 24Political Monitor | March 2018| Final | Public ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER Corbyn has closed the gap on May since 2016 as having what it takes to be a good PM – but is still behind 13% 12% 21% 17% 23% 30% 55% 44% 34% 28% 9% 11% 9% 11% 17% 10% 53% 60% 70% 72% 68% 58% 27% 47% Michael Gove (July 2015) Michael Gove (April 2018) Boris Johnson (July 2016) Boris Johnson (April 2018) Jeremy Corbyn (July 2016) Jeremy Corbyn (April 2018) Theresa May (July 2016) Theresa May (April 2018) Agree Disagree Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,004 British adults 18+ 20th April – 24th April 2018
  25. 25. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 25 Ipsos MORI April 2018 POLITICAL MONITOR

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