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Ipsos MORI January 2018 Political Monitor

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A majority of Britons do not think that the American President Donald Trump should be invited to the Royal Wedding between Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, according to the latest Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. The new poll shows that 69% of the public believe that he should not be invited – 23% think he should. Opposition to the invitation is higher amongst younger people (79% of 18-34s compared with 59% of those aged 55+. Women are also more likely to oppose (78%) than men (58%), as are Labour voters (80%) than Conservative voters (63%).

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Ipsos MORI January 2018 Political Monitor

  1. 1. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 1 Ipsos MORIPOLITICAL MONITOR January 2018
  2. 2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2 VOTING INTENTIONS
  3. 3. 3Political Monitor | January 2018| Final | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,031 British adults 18+, 19th January – 23rd January 2018; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 817. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% Voting Intention ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +2 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -3 39% 42% 9% 3% 2% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP GREEN 42% 40% 9% 2% 2% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP GREEN
  4. 4. 4Political Monitor | January 2018| Final | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election 2015 General Election CONSERVATIVE LABOUR 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 May15 Jun15 Jul15 Aug15 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Oct17 Nov17 Dec17 Jan18 Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16)
  5. 5. 5Political Monitor | January 2018| Final | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan04 Jul04 Jan05 Jul05 Jan06 Jul06 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15 Jan16 Jul16 Jan17 Jul17 Jan18 2015 General Election Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – January ‘18 2005 General Election 2010 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07) CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
  6. 6. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 6 SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
  7. 7. 7Political Monitor | January 2018| Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? Theresa May Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,031 British adults 18+ 19th January – 23rd January 2018. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 28% 64% 9% 38% 55% 8% 38% 49% 14% Jeremy Corbyn The Government +5% swing from November 2017 -2% swing from November 2017 0% swing from November 2017 +2.5% swing from November 2017 -17 Net -11 Net -12 Net -36 Net SATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 25% SATISFIED 28% DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 37% DISSATISFIED 64% 25% 37% 39% Vince Cable
  8. 8. 8Political Monitor | January 2018| Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month. Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Jan 2018 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Oct17 Nov17 Dec17 Jan18 MAY CORBYN CABLE 38%38% 25%
  9. 9. 9Political Monitor | January 2018| Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2018) MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER Netsatisfaction Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone May Number of months after becoming Prime Minister
  10. 10. 10Political Monitor | January 2018| Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2018) Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Hague (97-01) Duncan Smith (01-03) Howard (03-05) Cameron (05-10) Blair (94-97) Miliband (10-15) Corbyn (15-present) Kinnock (83-92) Foot (80-83) Smith (92-94) Number of months after becoming Opposition Leader Netsatisfaction Corbyn
  11. 11. 11Political Monitor | January 2018| Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,031 British adults 18+ 19th January – 23rd January 2018 Theresa May (satisfaction) 38% 55% 8% January 2018 August 2016 – January 2018 SATISFIED 38% DISSATISFIED 55% DON’T KNOW 8% Net = -17 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  12. 12. 12Political Monitor | January 2018| Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 405 Conservative supporters 18+ , 19th January – 23rd January 2018 Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters) 76% 21% 3% January 2018 SATISFIED 76% DISSATISFIED 21% DON’T KNOW 3% Net = +55 August 2016 – January 2018 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  13. 13. 13Political Monitor | January 2018| Final | Public 38% 49% 14% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 SATISFIED 38% DISSATISFIED 49% DON’T KNOW 14% Net = -11 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,031 British adults 18+ 19th January – 23rd January 2018 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction) January 2018 September 2015 – January 2018 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  14. 14. 14Political Monitor | January 2018| Final | Public 69% 21% 10% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 SATISFIED 69% DISSATISFIED 21% DON’T KNOW 10% Net = +48 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 336 Labour supporters 18+ , 19th January – 23rd January 2018 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters) January 2018 September 2015 – January 2018 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  15. 15. 15Political Monitor | January 2018 | Final | Public 25% 37% 39% SATISFIED 25% DISSATISFIED 37% DON’T KNOW 39% Net = -12 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Vince Cable (satisfaction) January 2018 Base: 1,031 British adults 18+ 19th January – 23rd January 2018 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 September 2017 – January 2018 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  16. 16. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 16 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
  17. 17. 17Political Monitor | January 2018| Final | Public 20% 24% 52% 4% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-117 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Aprl-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 IMPROVE 20% STAY THE SAME 24% GET WORSE 52% DON’T KNOW 4% EOI = -32 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,031 British adults 18+ 19th January – 23rd January 2018 Economic Optimism Index January 2018
  18. 18. 18Political Monitor | January 2018| Final | Public DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Slight increase in optimism since November 2017 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jan1998 May1998 Sep1998 Jan1999 May1999 Sep1999 Jan2000 May2000 Sep2000 Jan2001 May2001 Sep2001 Jan2002 May2002 Sep2002 Jan2003 May2003 Sep2003 Jan2004 May2004 Sep2004 Jan2005 May2005 Sep2005 Jan2006 May2006 Sep2006 Jan2007 May2007 Sep2007 Jan2008 May2008 Sep2008 Jan2009 May2009 Sep2009 Jan2010 May2010 Sep2010 Jan2011 May2011 Sep2011 Jan2012 May2012 Sep2012 Jan2013 May2013 Sep2013 Jan2014 May2014 Sep2014 Jan2015 May2015 Sep2015 Jan2016 May2016 Sep2016 Jan2017 May2017 Sep2017 Jan2018 -32
  19. 19. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 19 President Trump and the Royal Wedding
  20. 20. 20Political Monitor | January 2018| Final | Public Majority think Trump should not be invited to Royal Wedding – though opposition falls if Obama is invited Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: Split sampled- each question was asked of c.500 British adults 18+ 19th January – 23rd January 2018 23% 39% 69% 54% Should be invited Should not be invited As you may know, Prince Harry and Meghan Markle are going to get married in May. Looking forward to the Royal Wedding: Do you think that American President Donald Trump should be, or should not be invited to attend the wedding? Do you think that American President Donald Trump should be, or should not be invited to attend the wedding if former American President Barack Obama is invited?
  21. 21. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 21 Ipsos MORI January 2018 POLITICAL MONITOR

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