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© Ipsos MORI
Paste co-
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Ipsos MORI SlideShare summary of findings & trends
05/01/2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
© Ipsos MORI
*
House Price Outlook (HPO)
* benchmark given = £205,240 (source: Halifax HPI October 2015)
% mentioning
Q. …...
© Ipsos MORI
+9
-2
+7
+19
+15
+15
+20
+33
+40
+64 +66
+65
+66
+62
+57
+62
+52
+60
+64
+58
+68
+64
+63
+61
-20
0
20
40
60
8...
© Ipsos MORI
+9
-2
+7
+19+15
+15
+20
+33
+40
+64
+66
+65
+66
+62
+57
+62
+52
+60+64
+58
+68+64 +63
+61
-28
-32
-48
-14
-32...
© Ipsos MORI
+9
-2
+7
+19
+15+15
+20
+33
+40
+64
+66+65 +66
+62
+57
+62
+52
+60
+64
+58
+68
+64 +63
+61
18
13
10
24
15
11 ...
© Ipsos MORI
‘Higher’ trends
3%
10%
25%
29%
20%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q. Do you think the average property price in the...
© Ipsos MORI
‘Lower’ trends
*%
2%
4%
20%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK wil...
© Ipsos MORI
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
+17
+24
+15
Net (±)
Net good time sell
Net good time buy
-43
-63
+18
Q. Thinkin...
© Ipsos MORI
Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad
time for people in genera...
© Ipsos MORI
44% good time
Regional buying sentiment
Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good...
© Ipsos MORI
61%
good time
Regional selling sentiment
Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a goo...
© Ipsos MORI
Mortgage and savings interest rates – trend
50%
28%
4%
10%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Mortgag...
© Ipsos MORI
58
42
37
31
20
11
11
10
9
3
3
3
Being able to raise enough deposit
Job security
Rising property prices
Househ...
© Ipsos MORI
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
% job security % finances % rises in interest rates % rising property prices
% raise e...
© Ipsos MORI
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Ipsos MORI SlideShare summary of findings & trends
27/01/2016
Local and historic ho...
© Ipsos MORI
*
House Price Outlook (HPO)
* benchmark given = £205,240 (source: Halifax HPI October 2015)
% mentioning
Q. …...
© Ipsos MORI
59 %
higher
Regional dimension: HPO
Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lo...
© Ipsos MORI
1
Local House Price Outlook
Q. Now thinking about the area where you live, what do you think the average pric...
© Ipsos MORI
53%
higher
Regional dimension: Local House Price Outlook
Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax
58%
higher
GB London
...
© Ipsos MORI
House price change
* benchmark given = £205,240 (source: Halifax HPI October 2015)
% mentioning
13
20
16
6
19...
© Ipsos MORI
On average, people under-estimate extent of house price rises
1% average vactual 10%
Average – Source: Ipsos ...
© Ipsos MORI
Regional dimension: house price change
Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax
45%
higher
London
South
England
46%
hig...
© Ipsos MORI
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ben.marshall@ipsos.com | 020 7347 3461
elizabeth.copp@ipsos.com | 020 7347 3165
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Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker Q4 2015

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Confidence in the UK housing market remains strong, according to the latest quarterly Halifax Market Confidence Tracker (HMCT), and comes against a backdrop of cooling confidence in the wider economy.

Despite declining steadily since last May, house price optimism (HPO) in the final quarter of 2015 continued to show that a majority of Britons believe that average UK property prices will be higher rather than lower 12 months from now (+61 compared to +63 in September 2015, and +68 in May 2015). Over three in ten Britons (13%) predict the average UK property price to rise by 15% or more.

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Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker Q4 2015

  1. 1. © Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Ipsos MORI SlideShare summary of findings & trends 05/01/2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015
  2. 2. © Ipsos MORI * House Price Outlook (HPO) * benchmark given = £205,240 (source: Halifax HPI October 2015) % mentioning Q. …Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price*] 4 29 25 10 20 Lower by 15% or more Lower by 10%- 15% Lower by 5%- 10% Lower but less than 5% lower The same Higher but less than 5% higher Higher by 5%- 10% Higher by 10%- 15% Higher by 15% or more 7 Don’t know Lower Higher * 2 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 04-18 Dec 2015 3
  3. 3. © Ipsos MORI +9 -2 +7 +19 +15 +15 +20 +33 +40 +64 +66 +65 +66 +62 +57 +62 +52 +60 +64 +58 +68 +64 +63 +61 -20 0 20 40 60 80 HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+) Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPI] Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+ House Price Outlook trend
  4. 4. © Ipsos MORI +9 -2 +7 +19+15 +15 +20 +33 +40 +64 +66 +65 +66 +62 +57 +62 +52 +60+64 +58 +68+64 +63 +61 -28 -32 -48 -14 -32 -9 -6 -19 0 +23 +15 +23 +29 +24 +19 +5 +12 +11 +21 +21 +26 +16 +1 -1 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 HPO EOI HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Q. Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? (EOI) Source: EOI – Ipsos MORI (measures in advance of or during HMCT fieldwork) HPO and EOI trends Source: HPO – Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
  5. 5. © Ipsos MORI +9 -2 +7 +19 +15+15 +20 +33 +40 +64 +66+65 +66 +62 +57 +62 +52 +60 +64 +58 +68 +64 +63 +61 18 13 10 24 15 11 13 21 30 41 51 56 57 53 51 55 52 56 59 56 60 59 52 55 -20 0 20 40 60 80 HPO Selling sentiment Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? HPO and selling sentiment Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Selling sentiment – % agree good time to sell HPO – + balance of % higher minus % lower Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
  6. 6. © Ipsos MORI ‘Higher’ trends 3% 10% 25% 29% 20% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker % the same % < 5% higher % 5 - 10% higher % > 15% higher % 10 - 15% higher Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
  7. 7. © Ipsos MORI ‘Lower’ trends *% 2% 4% 20% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker % the same % < 5% lower % 5 - 10% lower % > 15% lower % 10 - 15% lower Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
  8. 8. © Ipsos MORI -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 +17 +24 +15 Net (±) Net good time sell Net good time buy -43 -63 +18 Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker -64 -38 -55 +23 -62 +27 Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+ Apr 2011 Oct 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2012 June 2012 Oct 2012 Dec 2012 +20 -58 +25 -42 Mar 2013 +27 -26 June 2013 Sept 2013 +12 +35 -6 Dec 2013 Buying and selling sentiment Mar 2014 +24 +25 +34 +25 +5 Jul 2014 +11 +19 Sept 2014 +26 +24 +14 +25 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 +27 +21 Jan 2015 +35 +27 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 +21 +33 +26 +30 Apr 2015 +27 +34 May 2015 +25 +32 June 2015 +20 +20 Sept 2015 +26 +23
  9. 9. © Ipsos MORI Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? Good time buy/ good time sell 14% 15% 39% 15% Buying/selling sentiment combined Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 04 Dec – 18 Dec Good time buy/ bad time sell Bad time buy/ good time sell Bad time buy/ bad time sell +3 -2 -1 -1 + change vs September 2015
  10. 10. © Ipsos MORI 44% good time Regional buying sentiment Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy a property? Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax GB London South England North England Midlands 54% good time 51% good time 29% bad time 26% bad time 31% bad time 57% good time 39% bad time 36% bad time 47% good time Base: 1,956 GB adults 04 Dec – 18 Dec 2015, including 321 in London, 325 South England (SE, SW), 542 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 334 in the Midlands.
  11. 11. © Ipsos MORI 61% good time Regional selling sentiment Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax 29% bad time GB London South England North England Midlands 55% good time 49% good time 21% bad time 34% bad time 55% good time 52% good time 28% bad time 28% bad time Base: 1,956 GB adults 04 Dec – 18 Dec 2015, including 321 in London, 325 South England (SE, SW), 542 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 334 in the Midlands.
  12. 12. © Ipsos MORI Mortgage and savings interest rates – trend 50% 28% 4% 10% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Mortgage interest rates higher Savings account interest rates higher Mortgage interest rates lower Savings account interest rates lower Q5a. In 12 months’ time do you think mortgage interest rates will be higher, lower or the same? Q5b. In 12 months’ time do you think interest rates for savings account rates will be higher, lower or the same? Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: c.1000 British adults1,956 age 16+ % mortgage higher % mortgage lower % savings higher % savings lower
  13. 13. © Ipsos MORI 58 42 37 31 20 11 11 10 9 3 3 3 Being able to raise enough deposit Job security Rising property prices Household finances The general availability of mortgages Concerns about rises in interest rates Fees related to buying a house Shortage of property for sale Shortage of the right type of property The level of stamp duty/taxation Falling property prices Don’t know Q. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property? Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Barriers to buying Change + vs Sept 2015 +1 0 +6 0 +3 -5 0 0 0 0 +1 Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 12 – 24 Sept 2015 0
  14. 14. © Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 % job security % finances % rises in interest rates % rising property prices % raise enough deposit % mortgages % shortage want to live % shortage want to buy % falling property prices % fees and costs % stamp duty/taxation 11% Q5. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property? Barriers to buying – trend data 58% 42% 37% 31% 20% 11% 9% Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,000 – 2,000 British adults 16+ 3% 10%
  15. 15. © Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Ipsos MORI SlideShare summary of findings & trends 27/01/2016 Local and historic house price movements Q3 2015
  16. 16. © Ipsos MORI * House Price Outlook (HPO) * benchmark given = £205,240 (source: Halifax HPI October 2015) % mentioning Q. …Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price*] 4 29 25 10 20 Lower by 15% or more Lower by 10%- 15% Lower by 5%- 10% Lower but less than 5% lower The same Higher but less than 5% higher Higher by 5%- 10% Higher by 10%- 15% Higher by 15% or more 7 Don’t know Lower Higher * 2 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 04-18 Dec 2015 3
  17. 17. © Ipsos MORI 59 % higher Regional dimension: HPO Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax 67% higher GB London South England 71% higher North England 75% higher Base: 1,956 GB adults 04 Dec – 18 Dec 2015, including 321 in London, 325 South England (SE, SW), 542 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 334 in the Midlands. 63% higher Midlands 6% lower2% lower 6% lower 6% lower 5% lower
  18. 18. © Ipsos MORI 1 Local House Price Outlook Q. Now thinking about the area where you live, what do you think the average price of property will be in 12 months’ time? Do you think that it will be higher, lower or will it be the same? 4 22 22 9 27 Lower by 15% or more Lower by 10%- 15% Lower by 5%- 10% Lower but less than 5% lower The same Higher but less than 5% higher Higher by 5%- 10% Higher by 10%- 15% Higher by 15% or more 9 Don’t know Lower Higher * 1 Base: 1,000 GB adults 16+, 04-18 Dec 2015 5 Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax
  19. 19. © Ipsos MORI 53% higher Regional dimension: Local House Price Outlook Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax 58% higher GB London South England 72% higher North England 71% higher Base: 1,000 GB adults 04 Dec – 18 Dec 2015, including 167 in London, 170 South England (SE, SW), 270 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 172 in the Midlands. 45% higher Midlands 7% lower2% lower 6% lower 6% lower Q. Now thinking about the area where you live, what do you think the average price of property will be in 12 months’ time? Do you think that it will be higher, lower or will it be the same? 3% lower
  20. 20. © Ipsos MORI House price change * benchmark given = £205,240 (source: Halifax HPI October 2015) % mentioning 13 20 16 6 19 Lower by 15% or more Lower by 10%- 15% Lower by 5%- 10% Lower but less than 5% lower The same Higher but less than 5% higher Higher by 5%- 10% Higher by 10%- 15% Higher by 15% or more 10 Don’t know Lower Higher 1 Base: 956 GB adults 16+, 04-18 Dec 2015 3 Q. Still thinking about the average UK house price in October 2015 which was £205,240, do you think that it was higher than 12 months previously – that is in October 2014 – was it lower, or was it the same? 4 9 Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax
  21. 21. © Ipsos MORI On average, people under-estimate extent of house price rises 1% average vactual 10% Average – Source: Ipsos MORI/Halifax (956 GB adults 16+, 04 -18 December 2015). The average public estimate of house price movement was derived by showing respondents potential movements (in percentage and price terms) and then averaging the prices given by all those providing an answer. Actual – 10% change Oct 2014-Oct 2015 Source: Halifax HPI
  22. 22. © Ipsos MORI Regional dimension: house price change Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax 45% higher London South England 46% higher North England 53% higher Base: 956 GB adults 04 Dec – 18 Dec 2015, including 154 in London, 155 South England (SE, SW), 272 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 162 in the Midlands. 40% higher Midlands 27% lower Q. Still thinking about the average UK house price in October 2015 which was £205,240, do you think that it was higher than 12 months previously – that is in October 2014 – was it lower, or was it the same? 28% lower 27% lower 29% lower 41% higher 23% lower GB
  23. 23. © Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here ben.marshall@ipsos.com | 020 7347 3461 elizabeth.copp@ipsos.com | 020 7347 3165 05/01/2016© Ipsos MORI Further information is available here

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