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Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker: Q3 2015

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Confidence in rising property prices in the UK has rallied and remains high, moving from the June to the September 2015 waves of the Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker.

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Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker: Q3 2015

  1. 1. © Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Ipsos MORI SlideShare summary of findings & trends 01/10/2015 Q3 2015 Q3 2015
  2. 2. © Ipsos MORI * House Price Outlook (HPO) * benchmark given = £198,883 (source: Halifax HPI July 2015) % mentioning Q. …Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price*] 4 32 24 9 21 Lower by 15% or more Lower by 10%- 15% Lower by 5%- 10% Lower but less than 5% lower The same Higher but less than 5% higher Higher by 5%- 10% Higher by 10%- 15% Higher by 15% or more 5 Don’t know Lower Higher * 1 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 11-24 Sept 2015 3
  3. 3. © Ipsos MORI +9 -2 +7 +19 +15+15 +20 +33 +40 +64+66+65+66 +62 +57 +62 +52 +60 +64 +58 +68 +64+63 -20 0 20 40 60 80 HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+) Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPI] Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+ House Price Outlook trend
  4. 4. © Ipsos MORI +9 -2 +7 +19+15+15 +20 +33 +40 +64+66+65+66+62 +57 +62 +52 +60+64 +58 +68+ 64 +63 -28 -32 -48 -14 -32 -9 -6 -19 0 +23 +15 +23 +29 +24 +19 +5 +12 +11 +21 +21 +26 +16 +1 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 HPO EOI HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Q. Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? (EOI) Source: EOI – Ipsos MORI (measures in advance of or during HMCT fieldwork) HPO and EOI trends Source: HPO – Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
  5. 5. © Ipsos MORI +9 -2 +7 +19 +15+15 +20 +33 +40 +64 +66 +65+66 +62 +57 +62 +52 +60 +64 +58 +68 +64 +63 18 13 10 24 15 11 13 21 30 41 51 56 57 53 51 55 52 56 59 56 60 59 52 -20 0 20 40 60 80 HPO Selling sentiment Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? HPO and selling sentiment Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Selling sentiment – % agree good time to sell HPO – + balance of % higher minus % lower Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
  6. 6. © Ipsos MORI ‘Higher’ trends 3% 9% 24% 32% 21% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker % the same % < 5% higher % 5 - 10% higher % > 15% higher % 10 - 15% higher Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
  7. 7. © Ipsos MORI ‘Lower’ trends *% 1% 4% 21% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker % the same % < 5% lower % 5 - 10% lower % > 15% lower % 10 - 15% lower Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
  8. 8. © Ipsos MORI -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Net (±) Net good time sell Net good time buy -43 -63 +18+17 Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker -64 +15 -38 +24 -55 +23 -62 +27 Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+ Apr 2011 Oct 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2012 June 2012 Oct 2012 Dec 2012 +20 -58 +25 -42 Mar 2013 +27 -26 June 2013 Sept 2013 +12 +35 -6 Dec 2013 Buying and selling sentiment Mar 2014 +24 +25 +34 +25 +5 Jul 2014 +11 +19 Sept 2014 +26 +24 +14 +25 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 +27 +21 Jan 2015 +35 +27 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 +21 +33 +26 +30 Apr 2015 +27 +34 May 2015 +25 +32 June 2015 +20 +20 Sept 2015
  9. 9. © Ipsos MORI Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? Good time buy/ good time sell 16% 16% 36% 16% Buying/selling sentiment combined Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 11 Sept – 24 Sept Good time buy/ bad time sell Bad time buy/ good time sell Bad time buy/ bad time sell -5 +4 0 +2 + change vs June 2015
  10. 10. © Ipsos MORI 63 % higher Regional dimension: house prices Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax 68% higher GB London South England 76% higher North England 79% higher Base: 1,956 GB adults 11 Sept – 24 Sept 2015, including 297 in London, 303 South England (SE, SW), 557 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 377 in the Midlands. 58% higher Midlands 7% lower3% lower 5% lower 5% lower 3% lower
  11. 11. © Ipsos MORI 46% bad time Regional buying sentiment Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy a property? Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax GB London South England North England Midlands 53% good time 53% good time 30% bad time 25% bad time 33% bad time 58% good time 40% good time 38% bad time Base: 1,956 GB adults 11 Sept – 24 Sept 2015, including 297 in London, 303 South England (SE, SW), 557 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 377 in the Midlands. 50% good time
  12. 12. © Ipsos MORI 60% good time Regional selling sentiment Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax 32% bad time GB London South England North England Midlands 52% good time 47% good time 28% bad time 35% bad time 64% good time 43% good time 38% bad time21% bad time Base: 1,956 GB adults 11 Sept – 24 Sept 2015, including 297 in London, 303 South England (SE, SW), 557 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 377 in the Midlands.
  13. 13. © Ipsos MORI Mortgage and savings interest rates – trend 58% 35% 5% 10% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Mortgage interest rates higher Savings account interest rates higher Mortgage interest rates lower Savings account interest rates lower Q5a. In 12 months’ time do you think mortgage interest rates will be higher, lower or the same? Q5b. In 12 months’ time do you think interest rates for savings account rates will be higher, lower or the same? Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: c.1000 British adults1,956 age 16+ % mortgage higher % mortgage lower % savings higher % savings lower
  14. 14. © Ipsos MORI 57% 42% 36% 31% 17% 16% 11% 10% 9% 3% 3% 2% Being able to raise enough deposit Job security Household finances Rising property prices The general availability of mortgages Concerns about rises in interest rates Fees related to buying a house Shortage of property for sale Shortage of the right type of property The level of stamp duty/taxation Falling property prices Don’t know Q. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property? Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Barriers to buying Change + vs June 2015 +2 -5 +3 +2 0 +2 0 0 0 +1 -4 -1 Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 12 – 24 Sept 2015
  15. 15. © Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 % job security % finances % rises in interest rates % rising property prices % raise enough deposit % mortages % shortage want to live % shortage want to buy % falling property prices % fees and costs % stamp duty/taxation 11% Q5. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property? Barriers to buying – trend data 57% 42% 36% 31% 17% 16% 9% Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,000 – 2,000 British adults 16+ 3% 10%
  16. 16. © Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here ben.marshall@ipsos.com | 020 7347 3461 elizabeth.copp@ipsos.com | 020 7347 3165 01/10/2015© Ipsos MORI Further information is available here

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