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Ipsos MORI Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker: Q1 2017

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The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker (HMCT) shows a modest increase in the House Price Outlook (HPO), up from +42 in October 2016 to +44 in March 2017. Following a 14 percentage point drop in the HPO in October 2016 the current survey shows the first signs that confidence in the housing market is rising, nine months after the Brexit vote.

This figure is driven by a one percentage point decrease in expectations that average UK property prices will be lower in twelve months’ time (down from 15% in October 2016) and a corresponding one percentage point increase in expectations that average UK prices will be higher in a years’ time (up from 57%).

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Ipsos MORI Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker: Q1 2017

  1. 1. 1Document Name Here | Month 2015 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) SlideShare summary Q1 2017
  2. 2. 2 House Price Outlook (HPO) 6% 1% 2% 4% 7% 23% 30% 19% 7% 2% Don't know Lower by 15% or more Lower by 10% - 15% Lower by 5% - 10% Lower but less than 5% lower The same Higher but less than 5% higher Higher by 5% - 10% Higher by 10% - 15% Higher 15% or more . Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price*, sourced from Halifax HPI] * £219,949 February 2017 Base: 1958 GB adults 16+. 24 March – 3 April 2017 +2 - +1 +1 -4 -1 -1 -1-- + change vs Oct’16
  3. 3. 3 House Price Outlook trend HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+) Previous Spring measures Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPI] +44 +56 +66 +33 +19 +9 +68 +64 +58 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker (+42) Base: 1958 GB adults 16+. 24 March – 3 April 2017
  4. 4. 4 HPO and EOI trends HPO EOI Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? +44 HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+) EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse (+) EOI measures in advance of HPO -28 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1958 GB adults 16+. 24 March – 3 April 2017
  5. 5. 5 ‘Higher’ trends Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 2 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) > 15% higher 10 - 15% higher 5 - 10% higher < 5% higher The same 2 7 30 23 19 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1958 GB adults 16+. 24 March – 3 April 2017
  6. 6. 6 ‘Lower’ trends Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? ( HPO) > 15% lower 10 - 15% lower 5 - 10% lower < 5% lower The same 23 4 7 1 2 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1958 GB adults 16+. 24 March – 3 April 2017
  7. 7. 7 Buying and selling sentiment (±) net good time buy (±) net good time sell Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? +17 +14 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1958 GB adults 16+. 24 March – 3 April 2017
  8. 8. 8 HPO and selling sentiment HPO Selling sentiment Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months or will it be the same? Thinking about the next 12 months do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? Selling sentiment – % agree good time to sell HPO – + balance of % higher minus % lower +44 52 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1958 GB adults 16+. 24 March – 3 April 2017
  9. 9. 9 Buying/selling sentiment combined Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? Good time buy/ bad time sell Bad time buy/ good time sell +5 -4 - - Good time buy/ good time sell Bad time buy/ bad time sell + change vs Oct’16 13%13% 38% 21% Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1958 GB adults 16+. 24 March – 3 April 2017
  10. 10. 10 Buying sentiment – key groups Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy a property? +24 +6 +29 x% +43 27 +23 + net good time to buy +18 +13 +31 +19 +4 +4 +12 +15 +22 +24 +19 Men Women Owner Mortgage Renter -9 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1958 GB adults 16+. 24 March – 3 April 2017
  11. 11. 11 Selling sentiment – key groups Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ x% + net good time to sell +22 +16 +21 +29 +4 +4 +12 +25 +22 +24 +19 Men Women OwnerMortgage Renter +8 +25 +25 x% +10 27 +11 +12 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1958 GB adults 16+. 24 March – 3 April 2017
  12. 12. 12 Barriers to buying 65 41 36 30 16 14 13 10 9 6 2 1 Being able to raise enough deposit Job security Rising property prices Household finances The general availability of mortgages Fees related to buying a house Concern about rises in interest rates Shortage of property for sale Shortage of the right type of property The level of stamp duty/taxation Falling property prices Don't know -1 Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property? +3 -7 -1 +1 +4 +1 +1 +8 Change + vs Oct’16% - - - Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1958 GB adults 16+. 24 March – 3 April 2017
  13. 13. 13 Barriers to buying - trend data Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property? % job security % finances % rises in interest rates % rising property prices % raise enough deposit % mortages % shortage want to live % shortage want to buy % falling property prices % fees and costs % stamp duty/taxation 65 41 36 30 16 14, 13 6 2 10, 9 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1958 GB adults 16+. 24 March – 3 April 2017
  14. 14. 14Document Name Here | Month 2015 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Further information: ben.marshall@ipsos.com alexandra.aslaksen@ipsos.com

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