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Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker Autumn 2016

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The latest Halifax Market Confidence Tracker research by Ipsos MORI shows a 14 point fall in the Halifax House Price Outlook, down from +56 in March to +42 in October 2016. This is the lowest the measure has been since June 2013, continuing a declining trend following a high point in Spring 2015.

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Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker Autumn 2016

  1. 1. 1Document Name Here | Month 2015 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) SlideShare summary Autumn 2016
  2. 2. 2 House Price Outlook (HPO) 7% 1% 2% 4% 8% 22% 26% 20% 8% 3% Don't know Lower by 15% or more Lower by 10% - 15% Lower by 5% - 10% Lower but less than 5% lower The same Higher but less than 5% higher Higher by 5% - 10% Higher by 10% - 15% Higher 15% or more . Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price*, sourced from Halifax HPI] * UK house price benchmark given = £213,930 Base: 3,888 GB adults 16+, 23 September – 19 October 2016
  3. 3. 3 House Price Outlook trendApr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+) Previous Autumn measures +63 Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPO] Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker +42 +-2 +64 +62 Base: 3,888 GB adults 16+, 23 September – 19 October 2016
  4. 4. 4 HPO and EOI trends HPO EOI Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker EOI – Ipsos MORI +42 HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+) EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse (+) EOI measures in advance of HPO measure -1* * EOI -29, 14-17 Oct 2016 Base: 3,888 GB adults 16+, 23 September – 19 October 2016
  5. 5. 5 HPO and selling sentiment HPO Selling sentiment Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months or will it be the same? Thinking about the next 12 months do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? Selling sentiment – % agree good time to sell HPO – + balance of % higher minus % lower Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker 48 +42 Base: 3,888 GB adults 16+, 23 September – 19 October 2016
  6. 6. 6 Buying and selling sentiment (±) net good time buy (±) net good time sell Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker +17 +9 Base: 1,953 GB adults 16+, 30 September - 19 October 2016
  7. 7. 7 Buying/selling sentiment combined Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? Good time buy/ bad time sell Bad time buy/ good time sell -6 +7 -3 +6 Good time buy/ good time sell Bad time buy/ bad time sell + change vs Mar 2016 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker 13%17% 33% 21% Base: 1,953 GB adults 16+, 30 September - 19 October 2016
  8. 8. 8Document Name Here | Month 2015 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Additional questions
  9. 9. 9 Brexit and house prices Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker 20% 25% It will be HIGHER than it would have been because the UK decided to withdraw from the EU It will be LOWER than it would have been because the UK decided to withdraw from the EU The decision to withdraw from the EU will have made no difference Q: Now please think again about the average property price in the UK in 12 months’ time. Do you think that it will be higher than it would have been because the UK decided to withdraw from the European Union in June this year, will it be lower than it would have been, or will the decision to withdraw have made no difference to the average property price in Britain? 49% 6% Don’t Know Base: 1,953 GB adults 16+, 30 September - 19 October 2016
  10. 10. 10 Brexit and Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker 92% 8% I was not looking to buy or sell a property before the June referendum I was looking to buy or sell a property before the June referendum 3% 2% 95% 22% 41% 8% 7% 21% Q:You mentioned that you were thinking of buying or selling a property before the referendum. Which, if any, of these have happened since the vote in June? Q: You mentioned that you were not thinking of buying or selling a property before the referendum. Which, if any, of these apply to the period since the vote in June? I have gone ahead with plans to sell a property I have gone ahead with plans to buy a property I have started looking/plan to sell a property I have started looking/plan to buy a property I have delayed or cancelled plans to sell a property because of the vote I have delayed or cancelled plans for some other reason I am still not looking/planning to buy or sell a property I have delayed or cancelled plans to buy a property because of the vote Base: 1,953 GB adults 16+, 30 September - 19 October 2016 behaviours
  11. 11. 11 Mortgage rates Q: In 12 months’ time do you think mortgage interest rates will be higher, lower or about the same as they are now? Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker Base: 1,027 mortgage holders 16+, 23 September - 19 October 2016 2 36 53 6 1 4 A lot higher A little higher The same A little lower A lot lower Don't know 3 4938 4 5 A lot higher A little higher The same A little lower A lot lower Don't know Base: 779 mortgage holders 16+, 12-22 June 2015 2016 2015
  12. 12. 12Document Name Here | Month 2015 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Further information ben.marshall@ipsos.com alexandra.aslaksen@ipsos.com

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