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Ipsos MORI End of Year Review 2017

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On 6 December 2017, in Central London, we looked back at the events of 2017 and explored whether we’re looking to the future through a lens of pessimism or optimism. Ben Page also outlined findings from our global survey – Perils of Perception – where we examine people across 33 countries and look at how wrong we are about the society we live in, from predicting the levels of immigration and obesity to guessing how many people have access to the internet.

Publicada em: Notícias e política
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Ipsos MORI End of Year Review 2017

  1. 1. © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 1 #ipsosmorilive THE IPSOS MORI END OF YEAR REVIEW
  2. 2. 2 01 02 03 04 05 06 Bobby Duffy Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute Ben Page Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI Wenda Harris Millard MediaLink Margaret Heffernan Author & Entrepreneur Philip Collins Columnist The Times Q&A Drinks Agenda
  3. 3. © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 3 THE IPSOS MORI ALMANAC 2017
  4. 4. © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 4
  5. 5. © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 5 2017 PERILS OF PERCEPTION
  6. 6. 6 SAME AS IN 2000? HIGHER, LOWER OR ABOUT IS THE MURDER RATE IN GB -29% HIGHER ABOUT THE SAME LOWER ONLY 19% IN GB GUESS LOWER HIGHER ABOUT THE SAME LOWER
  7. 7. 7 11.8%ACTUAL GUESS 34% ACTUAL IN SAUDI ARABIA? 72% ARE IMMIGRANTS/FOREIGN BORN? WHAT % OF PRISONERS IN GB
  8. 8. 8 1.4%ACTUAL GUESS 19% GUESS IN BRAZIL? 48% GB GIVE BIRTH EACH YEAR? WHAT % OF TEENAGE GIRLS IN
  9. 9. 9 Ben has promised to buy us all a drink… (EVEN) MORE INTERESTING LET’S MAKE IT … if 50%+ get each of final two questions right
  10. 10. 10 USA BRITAIN GERMANY FRANCE CONSUMING NATION PER CAPITA? WHO IS THE MOST SUGAR USA BRITAIN GERMANY FRANCE
  11. 11. 11 RUSSIA BRITAIN GERMANY BELGIUM NATION PER CAPITA? WHO IS THE BOOZIEST
  12. 12. 12
  13. 13. 13 RUSSIA BRITAIN GERMANY BELGIUM NATION PER CAPITA? WHO IS THE BOOZIEST
  14. 14. 14
  15. 15. 15 RUSSIA BRITAIN GERMANY BELGIUM NATION PER CAPITA? WHO IS THE BOOZIEST
  16. 16. 16
  17. 17. 17 NATION PER CAPITA? WHO IS THE BOOZIEST RUSSIA BRITAIN GERMANY BELGIUMRUSSIA BRITAIN GERMANY BELGIUM
  18. 18. 18 WELL DONE US!!! See Ben at the bar later …
  19. 19. 19 Page Ben Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
  20. 20. 20 against itself cannot stand” “A house divided
  21. 21. 21 THE 5 TRIBES OF BREXIT BRITAIN WHICH ONE ARE YOU?
  22. 22. 22 WHO ARE THE FIVE TRIBES? Young, Urban and Unengaged Diverse, city-based, and least politically engaged. Jobs and housing are key issues28% Exercised by Brexit Male, more highly educated, middle class – and focused entirely on Brexit 26% Traditional Misgivings Older and mostly female; concerned about the NHS and immigration 21% Public Service Worriers Middle class, degree-holding and female, the NHS and Brexit are concerns 21% The Hyper-concerned Middle class and most politically engaged, worried about nearly everything 4%
  23. 23. 23 POLITICAL DIVIDENEW THE
  24. 24. 24 Leader satisfaction ratings during May’s premiership POLITICS IS STRONG AND STABLE! Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Oct17 Nov17 32% 42% GE campaign AUG16 SEP16 OCT16 NOV16 DEC16 JAN17 FEB17 MAR17 APR17 MAY17 JUN17 JUL17 AUG17 SEP17 OCT17 NOV17 CORBYN MAY Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month.
  25. 25. 25 27% 27% 33% 43% 51% 61%62% 56% 49% 40% 34% 25% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ THE BIGGEST AGE GAP WE’VE EVER SEEN CONSERVATIVE LABOUR %estimatedvoteshare Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain.
  26. 26. 26 AND A HARD FUTURE EXPECTED FOR THE YOUNG And which of these do you think will be better or worse for young adults in the UK (aged 17-36) sometimes called -63% -51% -43% -43% -42% -35% -32% -32% -12% -7% -4% 22% 26% 34% 67% Being able to travel abroad Having good education Being free to be true to themselves Having access to information and entertainment +% net better Competition for jobs and public services due to immigration Being able to own their own home Being able to live comfortably when they retire from work Global stability and safety from war Having a secure job Having enough money to live well Being safe from crime Government working in their interests Having access to affordably-priced goods and services Having a successful career Having access to good healthcare the Millennial generation, than for their parents? Source: Resolution Foundation/Ipsos MORI Base: 1099 GB adults 15+
  27. 27. 27 35% 19% 34% 31% 8% 19% 2% 8% AND WE’RE BECOMING TIRED OF AUSTERITY … STRONGLY AGREE TEND TO AGREE I am worried that government and public services will do little to help TEND TO DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE AUGUST 2017 MAY 2010 people in the years ahead … Source: Deloitte – State of the State 2017-18 Base: Half sample 536 UK adults 15+
  28. 28. 28 BREXIT STILL DIVIDES – WITH NO SIGNS OF THE Once Britain leaves the EU, what area do you think it should prioritise? TWO SIDES COMING TOGETHER 45% 44% 49% 49% 39% 42% 41% 37% BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER IMMIGRATION BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET JAN 2017 OCT 2016 JUL 2017 OCT 2017 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c1,000 British adults each month
  29. 29. 29 BREXIT HAS REVEALED DIVISIONS ON NOSTALGIA … 19% 6% 19% 8% 34% 25% 36% 22% 26% 29% 32% 33% 16% 30% 5% 23% 3% 7% 4% 12% STRONGLY AGREE TEND TO AGREE TEND TO DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREECONSERVATIVE LEAVE CONSERVATIVE REMAIN LABOUR LEAVE LABOUR REMAIN “Things in Britain were better in the past” Source: Ipsos MORI/Unbound Base: 599 Conservative voters who voted leave in the referendum, 401 conservative voters who voted remain in the referendum, 171 Labour voters who voted leave in the referendum, and 464 Labour voters who voted remain in the referendum, completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016
  30. 30. 30 AND ON ATTITUDES TO IMMIGRATION … “Immigrants take away jobs from real Britons” 21% 6% 21% 4% 35% 18% 34% 9% 27% 24% 19% 16% 14% 34% 15% 29% 3% 17% 8% 40% CONSERVATIVE LEAVE CONSERVATIVE REMAIN LABOUR LEAVE LABOUR REMAIN STRONGLY AGREE TEND TO AGREE TEND TO DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE Source: Ipsos MORI/Unbound Base: 599 Conservative voters who voted leave in the referendum, 401 conservative voters who voted remain in the referendum, 171 Labour voters who voted leave in the referendum, and 464 Labour voters who voted remain in the referendum, completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016
  31. 31. 31 BUT OTHER TRADITIONAL PARTY DIVIDES REMAIN 15% 14% 8% 3% 48% 46% 20% 19% 21% 24% 26% 29% 11% 12% 29% 31% 2% 1% 13% 17% “Large differences in people’s incomes are acceptable to properly reward differences CONSERVATIVE LEAVE CONSERVATIVE REMAIN LABOUR LEAVE LABOUR REMAIN in talents & efforts” STRONGLY AGREE TEND TO AGREE TEND TO DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE Source: Ipsos MORI/Unbound Base: 599 Conservative voters who voted leave in the referendum, 401 conservative voters who voted remain in the referendum, 171 Labour voters who voted leave in the referendum, and 464 Labour voters who voted remain in the referendum, completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016
  32. 32. 32 KEEP US TOGETHER? CAN ANYTHING
  33. 33. 33 79 75 77 78 73 75 77 78 77 76 74 77 73 74 77 19 23 20 20 25 22 21 20 21 21 23 21 25 23 23 2000SPRING 2001WINTER 2002SPRING 2002WINTER 2003SPRING 2003WINTER 2004SPRING 2004WINTER 2005SPRING 2005WINTER 2006SPRING 2006WINTER 2007SPRING 2007WINTER 2017AUG THE NHS … The NHS is crucial to British society and we must do everything to maintain it Percent % The NHS was a great project but we probably can’t maintain it in its current form Source: Ipsos MORI / DH / King’s Fund Base: c.1,000 English adults aged 15+ per wave
  34. 34. 34 WHAT MAKES US PROUD? 82 76 67 66 57 53 53 51 49 47 44 35 34 21 Country's scenery and wildlife Country's healthcare system Country's military/armed forces Country's culture and arts Country's TV The BBC The Monarchy Country's sports teams Country's multiculturalism Country's business Country's position in the world Country's system of govt Country's economy Country's weather % “a great deal” / “a fair amount” Below is a list of things that are part of life in the UK To what extent, if at all do you think each of these is something that the people of the UK should be proud of? Source: Ipsos MORI/BBC Base: 564 UK online adults aged 16-75, 25-29 August 2017
  35. 35. 35 66% 28% 6% THE MONARCHY! 70% 25% 5% 67% 29% 4% 1998 75% 20% 4% Do you think the monarchy does or does not have an important role to play in the future of Britain? 1999 2000 2016 DOES DOES NOT DON’T KNOW Source: Ipsos MORI Base: c. 800-1,000 British adults 18+ in each poll
  36. 36. 36 SHAKESPEARE STILL SHOCKS
  37. 37. 37 BELIEVE As engaging and THE HYPE emotive as real life theatre
  38. 38. 38 74% 90% 88% 88% 87% 87% 87% 84% 83% 82% 82% 81% 81% 79% 77% 74% 68% 64% 61% 60% 58% 37% 24% 20% 7% 9% 9% 11% 7% 8% 14% 12% 11% 12% 11% 13% 15% 16% 19% 25% 30% 19% 33% 37% 50% 71% Total Spain Germany Sweden Belgium Canada GB Mexico Argentina France U.S. Australia Italy S Africa Brazil India Poland S Korea Japan Peru Turkey Russia Indonesia BECOMING MORE LIBERAL … Gay men and lesbians should be free to live their own life as they wish AGREE 2016 AGREE 2014 DISAGREE 2016 DISAGREE 2014 Base: 17,180 adults across 22 countries, online, 12th Sep – 11th Oct 2016
  39. 39. 39 STILL A LONG WAY TO GO THOUGH
  40. 40. 40 MORE TRUST IN SOME “EXPERTS” - % trust to tell the truth: 0 25 50 75 100 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Doctors Teachers Clergy -20ppts Professors +15 Scientists +20 Police +13 Civil Servants +34 Journalists +8 Politicians Business leaders +11 Source: Ipsos MORI/Unbound Base: c. 1,000 British adults aged 15+ per year
  41. 41. 41 13% 53% 43% 23% 20% 19% 16% 16% 15% 13% 12% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 4% 4% 4% 3% 67% 32% 39% 57% 66% 66% 59% 63% 56% 67% 63% 77% 67% 74% 72% 81% 67% 73% 76% 86% 73% 81% 58% 81% 83% 19% 15% 18% 20% 15% 15% 25% 22% 29% 19% 25% 14% 24% 17% 20% 11% 26% 20% 17% 7% 21% 15% 37% 14% 14% ONLY 13% Total China India Sweden Peru Saudi Arabia Hungary US Russia Poland Australia South Africa Great Britain Brazil Canada South Korea Germany Spain France Turkey Argentina Italy Japan Mexico Belgium THINK THE WORLD IS GETTING BETTER Which of these are closest to your views? Base: Representative sample of 18,073 adults aged 16-64 in 25 participating countries, December 23rd 2016 – January 6th 2017 THE WORLD IS GETTING BETTER THE WORLD IS GETTING WORSE NEITHER OF THOSE Source: Global Advisor
  42. 42. 42 BUT THINGS AREN’T ALL GLOOMY Murder rate Deaths from 137,000 fewer Child mortality Global life 300,000 people Even Giant Teen pregnancy Global carbon terrorism in GB down 80% in last 15 years compared with previous expectancy 71 years, was 31 in 1900 people in extreme poverty each day – for last 25 years! rates down in Britain and many other countries getting access to electricity – each day emissions not risen for last 3 years half what it was in 1990 Panda off the endangered list … down 29% in GB
  43. 43. 43 SOME FINAL THOUGHTS …
  44. 44. 44 Intersection of what is changing and what is fixed – we don’t yet know how this will play out
  45. 45. 45 But many of the same things still unite us
  46. 46. 46 Britons want to be allowed to feel proud
  47. 47. 47 Traditional British institutions and culture are more resilient than we think
  48. 48. 48 Thank you!

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