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1
WELCOME.
THE IPSOS MORI
END OF YEAR REVIEW#ipsosmorilive
2
BEN PAGE,
CEO, Ipsos MORI
LORD (VICTOR) ADEBOWALE,
CEO, Turning Point
LOUISE CASEY,
Director-General, DCLG
TREVOR PHILLI...
3
4
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 2015
A 33 COUNTRY STUDY
5PERILS OF PERCEPTION |
WHAT PROPORTION OF
TOTAL HOUSEHOLD WEALTH
DO YOU THINK THE
WEALTHIEST 1% OWN?
Actual… Guess…
23% 5...
6PERILS OF PERCEPTION |
Should…
20%
27%
WHAT PROPORTION OF
TOTAL HOUSEHOLD WEALTH
DO YOU THINK THE
WEALTHIEST 1%
SHOULD OW...
7PERILS OF PERCEPTION |
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE
AGED 20 YEARS OR OVER
HOW MANY DO YOU THINK
ARE EITHER OVERWEIGHT
OR OBESE...
8PERILS OF PERCEPTION |
Guess…Actual…
14%
49%
OUT OF EVERY 100
YOUNG ADULTS AGED 25-34
ABOUT HOW MANY
LIVE WITH THEIR PARE...
9PERILS OF PERCEPTION |
WHAT PERCENTAGE OF
POLITICIANS ARE WOMEN?
Guess…Actual…
29%
42%
23%
26%
10
NOT JUST TO POKE FUN
We struggle with maths...
– and we’re thinking “fast”…
Emotional Innumeracy…
Inductive Generalizat...
11
BEN PAGE.
CEO, IPSOS MORI.
THE IPSOS MORI
END OF YEAR REVIEW.#ipsosmorilive
12
WAS 2015 A GOOD OR A BAD YEAR?
45% good
26% bad
27% good
37% bad
for you and your family
for Britain
13
POLLSTERS HAVE HAD BETTER YEARS…
14
THOUGH THE EXIT POLL WAS RIGHT
– AGAIN…
Asking what did do,
rather than what will…
LABOUR
PARTY
LIBERAL
DEMOCRATS
SNP
U...
15
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
47%46%
7%
39%
53%
7%
CONSERVATIVES’ MESSAGE ON HAVING THE
RIGHT LONG-TERM ECONOMIC...
16
Since MORI started polling, no leader
has become Prime Minister with a
satisfaction rating at the start of the
election...
1717
… and losing
• 18-34s
• Social class DE
• Private and social
renters
• BME voters
winning amongst
So Labour ended
gro...
18
37
26
19
21
15
28
22
22
19
26
34
40
24
39
63
33
42
22
24
30
32
44
35
37
Foot - Jan '81
Kinnock - Dec '83
Major - Feb '9...
19
WHAT DID WE
THE WINTER CRISIS IN THE NHS,
THEN IMMIGRATION
ECONOMY A LINGERING CONCERN
HOUSING BUBBLING UNDER, AND LOW ...
20
IN THE LAST
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues IndexBase: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, in...
21
ARE WE OPTIMISTIC OR
PESSIMISTIC FOR 2016?
49% optimistic
19% pessimistic
29% optimistic
37% pessimistic
for you and yo...
22
THE AUSTERITY
WE DON’T LIKE IT, BUT ARE WE
LEARNING TO LIVE WITH IT?
YEARS.
23
ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
IS FALLING A...
24
BUT ARE WE GETTING USED TO THE NEW NORMAL?
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015
8%
8%
25%
15%
49%
39%...
25
MORE REALISTIC ABOUT AUSTERITY
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 (2012 survey online among 16-75 y...
26PERILS OF PERCEPTION |
ACTUAL LEVELS OF PUBLIC SPENDING
WE UNDERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF CUTS TO
WE ARE ALSO WRONG ON
HOUS...
2727
MANY SERVICES
HOLDING UP
28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar-02
Oct-02
May-03
Dec-03
Jul-04
Feb-05
Sep-05
Apr-06
Nov-06
Jun-07
Jan-08
Aug-08
Mar-09
Oct-09
M...
29
EUROPE.
WILL WE FINALLY
DECIDE IN 2016?
30
WE STILL WANT TO STAY IN – BUT ONLY
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 523 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th Octob...
31
ALTHOUGH “IN” VOTERS MOST CONFIDENT
Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 (570 rem...
32
WE ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT A
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 (570 remain voters/348 leave voter...
33
AND A MAJORITY NOW THINK ‘DOING
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 (570 remain voters/348 leave v...
34
WE’VE BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE HARDLINE
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 (570 remain voters/348 lea...
35
BUT IT HASN’T MADE US
MORE ANTI-IMMIGRATION.
EVEN THOUGH WE STILL
GET IT WRONG
36
HOW MUCH TIME
DO I HAVE?
ARE YOU STILL PAYING
ATTENTION?
Title – line 1
37
Source: Statistic Brain
A (SHORT) HISTORY
OF ATTENTION SPANS
2000
12
secs
Today
8
secs
9
secs
38
3 mph
17 days
1,100 miles
Battle of Trafalgar
1805
13 mph
13 days
3,674 miles
Assassination of
Abraham Lincoln
1865
4,1...
Title – line 1
39
15 h media asked for and
delivered to consumers
on mobile devices and
to their homes every
day
MORE INFO...
40
Source: Ipsos IPA TouchPoints5
More multi-screening
End of Year Event 2015
41Document Name Here | Month 2015 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE ...
42
2 million people
subscribed to Kylie
Jenner’s app in its first
week. Adding to over
40m followers on
Instagram and 12m
...
43
So more connected
But more distracted
More information
But no cleverer!
More worried
But more getting used to it?
Merry...
© 2015 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or re...
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Ipsos MORI End of Year Review of 2015

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The year in Britain as told through Ipsos MORI's public opinion research in 2015. Featuring Kylie Jenner, austerity, and a goldfish!

Publicada em: Notícias e política
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Ipsos MORI End of Year Review of 2015

  1. 1. 1 WELCOME. THE IPSOS MORI END OF YEAR REVIEW#ipsosmorilive
  2. 2. 2 BEN PAGE, CEO, Ipsos MORI LORD (VICTOR) ADEBOWALE, CEO, Turning Point LOUISE CASEY, Director-General, DCLG TREVOR PHILLIPS, President, John Lewis Partnership Council Q&A AGENDA FEDERICA COCCO, The Times
  3. 3. 3
  4. 4. 4 PERILS OF PERCEPTION 2015 A 33 COUNTRY STUDY
  5. 5. 5PERILS OF PERCEPTION | WHAT PROPORTION OF TOTAL HOUSEHOLD WEALTH DO YOU THINK THE WEALTHIEST 1% OWN? Actual… Guess… 23% 59% 53%70%
  6. 6. 6PERILS OF PERCEPTION | Should… 20% 27% WHAT PROPORTION OF TOTAL HOUSEHOLD WEALTH DO YOU THINK THE WEALTHIEST 1% SHOULD OWN? Actual… 23% 23%
  7. 7. 7PERILS OF PERCEPTION | OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE AGED 20 YEARS OR OVER HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE EITHER OVERWEIGHT OR OBESE? Guess… 62% 44% 28%71% Actual…
  8. 8. 8PERILS OF PERCEPTION | Guess…Actual… 14% 49% OUT OF EVERY 100 YOUNG ADULTS AGED 25-34 ABOUT HOW MANY LIVE WITH THEIR PARENTS? 43% 61%
  9. 9. 9PERILS OF PERCEPTION | WHAT PERCENTAGE OF POLITICIANS ARE WOMEN? Guess…Actual… 29% 42% 23% 26%
  10. 10. 10 NOT JUST TO POKE FUN We struggle with maths... – and we’re thinking “fast”… Emotional Innumeracy… Inductive Generalization… Rational Ignorance… Read, enjoy, take our fun quiz! AT OUR IGNORANCE…
  11. 11. 11 BEN PAGE. CEO, IPSOS MORI. THE IPSOS MORI END OF YEAR REVIEW.#ipsosmorilive
  12. 12. 12 WAS 2015 A GOOD OR A BAD YEAR? 45% good 26% bad 27% good 37% bad for you and your family for Britain
  13. 13. 13 POLLSTERS HAVE HAD BETTER YEARS…
  14. 14. 14 THOUGH THE EXIT POLL WAS RIGHT – AGAIN… Asking what did do, rather than what will… LABOUR PARTY LIBERAL DEMOCRATS SNP UKIP GREEN PARTY OTHERS CONSERVATIVE PARTY Exit poll 316 Result 331 Exit poll 239 Result 232 Exit poll 10 Result 8 Exit poll 58 Result 56 Exit poll 2 Result 1 Exit poll 2 Result 1 Exit poll 23 Result 21
  15. 15. 15 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 47%46% 7% 39% 53% 7% CONSERVATIVES’ MESSAGE ON HAVING THE RIGHT LONG-TERM ECONOMIC PLAN In the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state of Britain’s ECONOMY On balance, do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Q MARCH 2012 MARCH 2015 Base: 1,025 British adults 18+, 8th -11th March 2015 AGREE DISAGREE DON’T KNOW FINALLY CUT THROUGH.
  16. 16. 16 Since MORI started polling, no leader has become Prime Minister with a satisfaction rating at the start of the election year as low as Ed Miliband’s 26% in January 2015 – the lowest January rating for a winning PM has been Tony Blair’s 33% satisfied in 2005. ELECTION FACTS
  17. 17. 1717 … and losing • 18-34s • Social class DE • Private and social renters • BME voters winning amongst So Labour ended groups who don’t vote: amongst those who do… • Over 65s • ABC1s
  18. 18. 18 37 26 19 21 15 28 22 22 19 26 34 40 24 39 63 33 42 22 24 30 32 44 35 37 Foot - Jan '81 Kinnock - Dec '83 Major - Feb '91 Smith - Sep '92 Blair - Oct '94 Hague - Aug '97 Duncan Smith - Nov '01 Howard - Jan '04 Cameron - Mar '06 Brown - Sep '07 Miliband - Dec '10 Corbyn - Nov '15 % Dissatisfied % Satisfied Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitorc. 1,000 British adults aged 18+ each month NOW HOW DOES THE NEW GUY COMPARE? How satisfied or dissatisfied Q is doing their job as are you with the way …. Prime Minister/leader of the xx party? THIRD MONTH RATINGS
  19. 19. 19 WHAT DID WE THE WINTER CRISIS IN THE NHS, THEN IMMIGRATION ECONOMY A LINGERING CONCERN HOUSING BUBBLING UNDER, AND LOW PAY WHO REMEMBERS CRIME? WORRY ABOUT?
  20. 20. 20 IN THE LAST Source: Ipsos MORI Issues IndexBase: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Nov 2005 Nov 2006 Nov 2007 Nov 2008 Nov 2009 Nov 2010 Nov 2011 Nov 2012 Nov 2013 Nov 2014 Nov 2015 *Up until September 2014 the code was race relations/immigration/immigrants NHS CRIME/LAW & ORDER ECONOMYIMMIGRATION* HOUSING TEN YEARS… What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
  21. 21. 21 ARE WE OPTIMISTIC OR PESSIMISTIC FOR 2016? 49% optimistic 19% pessimistic 29% optimistic 37% pessimistic for you and your family for Britain
  22. 22. 22 THE AUSTERITY WE DON’T LIKE IT, BUT ARE WE LEARNING TO LIVE WITH IT? YEARS.
  23. 23. 23 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November IS FALLING AGAIN. Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Oct1997 May1998 Dec1998 Jul1999 Feb2000 Sep2000 Apr2001 Nov2001 Jun2002 Jan2003 Aug2003 Mar2004 Oct2004 May2005 Dec2005 Jul2006 Feb2007 Sep2007 Apr2008 Nov2008 Jun2009 Jan2010 Aug2010 Mar2011 Oct2011 May2012 Dec2012 Jul2013 Feb2014 Sep2014 Apr2015 Nov2015 -9 improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
  24. 24. 24 BUT ARE WE GETTING USED TO THE NEW NORMAL? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 8% 8% 25% 15% 49% 39% 10% 37% 8% 2% November 2012 August 2015 A great deal A fair amount Not very much Not at all Don't know BIG INCREASE IN THOSE SAYING BY CUTS. NOT AFFECTED As you may know, the government has announced a number of spending cuts to help reduce the national debt To what extent, if at all, have you and your family been affected by the cuts so far? 23% 33% 76% 59% Source: Ipsos MORI
  25. 25. 25 MORE REALISTIC ABOUT AUSTERITY Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 (2012 survey online among 16-75 year olds) OR MORE INNURED TO IT? And what proportion of the government’s planned cuts to public spending do you think have been carried out so far? Source: Ipsos MORI November 2012 August 2015 40% 28%
  26. 26. 26PERILS OF PERCEPTION | ACTUAL LEVELS OF PUBLIC SPENDING WE UNDERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF CUTS TO WE ARE ALSO WRONG ON HOUSING, EDUCATION, TRANSPORT & POLICING AVERAGE GUESS 2% CUT OVER 5 YEARS ACTUAL 13% INCREASE IN REAL TERMS AVERAGE GUESS 3% CUT OVER 5 YEARS ACTUAL 4% INCREASE IN REAL TERMS
  27. 27. 2727 MANY SERVICES HOLDING UP
  28. 28. 28 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Mar-02 Oct-02 May-03 Dec-03 Jul-04 Feb-05 Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Jan-15 Aug-15 BUT BIG INCREASES IN CONCERN Source: Ipsos MORIBase: c.1,000 British adults each month FOR THE FUTURE OF THE NHS AND POLICE. Thinking about the quality of THE NHS/the way your area is policed over the next few years do you expect it to…? 35 Policing NHS % get worse 55
  29. 29. 29 EUROPE. WILL WE FINALLY DECIDE IN 2016?
  30. 30. 30 WE STILL WANT TO STAY IN – BUT ONLY Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 523 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 JUST, AND HISTORY SHOWS HOW If there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or get out of the European Union, how would you vote? MUCH IT CAN CHANGE 26% 60% 63% 52% 49% 53% 51% 41% 61% 52% 65% 29% 27% 36% 35% 32% 39% 49% 27% 39% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Jul-77 Oct-79 Jan-82 Apr-84 Jul-86 Oct-88 Jan-91 Apr-93 Jul-95 Oct-97 Jan-00 Apr-02 Jul-04 Oct-06 Jan-09 Apr-11 Jul-13 Oct-15 STAY IN GET OUT
  31. 31. 31 ALTHOUGH “IN” VOTERS MOST CONFIDENT Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 (570 remain voters/348 leave voters) IN THE OUTCOME Thinking ahead to the referendum on European Union membership, which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely? 76% 19% 5% 44% 47% 9%BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION DON’T KNOW Remain voters Leave voters
  32. 32. 32 WE ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT A Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 (570 remain voters/348 leave voters) TERRORIST ATTACK. % saying “very/somewhat real threat” Change since October 2015 75% +14 95% +10 91% +10  Ipsos global advisor: November 2015
  33. 33. 33 AND A MAJORITY NOW THINK ‘DOING Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 (570 remain voters/348 leave voters) NOTHING’ IN SYRIA IS WORSE THAN % saying “very/somewhat real threat”  Ipsos global advisor: November 2015 30% -28 The problems of Syria are none of our business and we should not interfere 54% +14 Doing nothing in Syria would be worse than taking military action 79% +2 Taking military action in Syria will encourage attacks on Britain and the West MILITARY ACTION. % saying “strongly/tend to agree” Ipsos global advisor: November 2015
  34. 34. 34 WE’VE BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE HARDLINE Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 (570 remain voters/348 leave voters) ON REFUGEES. % agreeing “We must close our borders to refugees entirely—we can’t accept any at this time” Change since October 2015 33% -1 44% +5 48% +2 Ipsos global advisor: November 2015
  35. 35. 35 BUT IT HASN’T MADE US MORE ANTI-IMMIGRATION. EVEN THOUGH WE STILL GET IT WRONG
  36. 36. 36 HOW MUCH TIME DO I HAVE? ARE YOU STILL PAYING ATTENTION?
  37. 37. Title – line 1 37 Source: Statistic Brain A (SHORT) HISTORY OF ATTENTION SPANS 2000 12 secs Today 8 secs 9 secs
  38. 38. 38 3 mph 17 days 1,100 miles Battle of Trafalgar 1805 13 mph 13 days 3,674 miles Assassination of Abraham Lincoln 1865 4,147,920 mph 5 seconds 5,761 miles Germany wins World Cup 2014 MORE SPEED
  39. 39. Title – line 1 39 15 h media asked for and delivered to consumers on mobile devices and to their homes every day MORE INFORMATION
  40. 40. 40 Source: Ipsos IPA TouchPoints5 More multi-screening End of Year Event 2015
  41. 41. 41Document Name Here | Month 2015 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Source: Adventures in Retail: The other line is faster, Brand Perfect, November 2012 A 2 second delay in transaction results causes a 25% increase in abandonment
  42. 42. 42 2 million people subscribed to Kylie Jenner’s app in its first week. Adding to over 40m followers on Instagram and 12m on Twitter…. DO YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE UP AGAINST?
  43. 43. 43 So more connected But more distracted More information But no cleverer! More worried But more getting used to it? Merry Xmas!
  44. 44. © 2015 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 44 NOW THE IPSOS MORI END OF YEAR REVIEW #ipsosmorilive DRINK!!

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