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Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker Q1 2018

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The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker (HMCT) shows only a small improvement on the steep decrease in the House Price Outlook (HPO) found in autumn 2017.

In October 2017 HPO - consumer sentiment on whether average house prices will be higher or lower in a year’s time - was +30, down from +44 in March 2016 and less than half its peak in May 2015.

HPO is now +33. Half expect house prices to rise over the next year, the same as autumn 2017 and remaining at the lowest level since April 2013 (45%). However, fewer people are now negative about the housing market, with 17% predicting a fall in prices over the next year, down from 20% six months ago, with 26% expecting prices to stay flat.

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Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker Q1 2018

  1. 1. 1Document Name Here | Month 2015 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) SlideShare summary Q1 2018
  2. 2. 2 7% 1% 2% 5% 9% 26% 24% 18% 6% 2% Don't know Lower by 15% or more Lower by 10% - 15% Lower by 5% - 10% Lower but less than 5% lower The same Higher but less than 5% higher Higher by 5% - 10% Higher by 10% - 15% Higher 15% or more . Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price*, sourced from Halifax HPI] * UK house price benchmark given = £224,353 Base: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker House Price Outlook (HPO)
  3. 3. 3 House Price Outlook trend Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+) Previous Autumn measures +56 Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPO] +44 +19 +64 +58 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker +9 +33 +65 +33 Base: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018
  4. 4. 4 HPO and EOI trends HPO EOI Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? +33 HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+) EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse (+) EOI measures in advance of HPO measure -32 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker EOI - Ipsos MORI (2-7 March 2018) Base: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018
  5. 5. 5 ‘Higher’ trends Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) > 15% higher 10 - 15% higher 5 - 10% higher < 5% higher The same 2 6 26 24 18 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018
  6. 6. 6 ‘Lower’ trends Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? ( HPO) > 15% lower 10 - 15% lower 5 - 10% lower < 5% lower The same 26 5 9 1 2 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018
  7. 7. 7 HPO and selling sentiment HPO Selling sentiment Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months or will it be the same? Thinking about the next 12 months do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? Selling sentiment – % agree good time to sell HPO – + balance of % higher minus % lower 47 +33 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018
  8. 8. 8 Buying and selling sentiment (±) net good time buy (±) net good time sell Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? +14 +11 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018
  9. 9. 9 Buying/selling sentiment combined Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? Good time buy/ bad time sell Bad time buy/ good time sell +1 -2 0 Good time buy/ good time sell Bad time buy/ bad time sell + change vs Oct 2017 12%13% 34% 22% -4 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018
  10. 10. 10 Buying sentiment – key groups Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy a property? +24 0 +26 x% +15 27 +17 + net good time to buy +13 +15 +18 +23 -2 -14 +18 +15 +21 +24 +20 +7 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+Men Women OwnerMortgage Renter Base: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018
  11. 11. 11 Selling sentiment – key groups Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ x% + net good time to sell +11 +11 +14 +21 -4 +7 +9 +2 +18 +20 +13 Men Women Owner Mortgage Renter +8 +17 +22 x% +11 27 +2 -10 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018
  12. 12. 12 63 42 37 34 17 14 12 9 7 7 2 2 Being able to raise enough deposit Job security Rising property prices Household finances Concern about rises in interest rates Fees related to buying a house The general availability of mortgages Shortage of property for sale Shortage of the right type of property people want to buy The level of stamp duty/taxation Falling property prices Don't know Barriers to buying Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers To people in general being able to buy a property? Change + vs Oct 17 0 0 +2 +2 +2 +2 -3 -3 +1 -2 +2 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker +1 Base: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018
  13. 13. 13 Barriers to buying - trend data Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property? % job security % finances % rises in interest rates % rising property prices % raise enough deposit % mortages % shortage of property for sale % shortage want to buy % falling property prices % fees and costs % stamp duty/taxation 63 42 34 17 7,7 2 12 37 9 14 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence TrackerBase: 1,993 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018
  14. 14. 14 Mortgage rates Thinking about the next 12 months, to what extent, if at all, are you concerned about any rise in rates affecting your mortgage payments?* 6% 30% 33% 31% 1% Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker *Question in 2017: Thinking about the next 12 months, to what extent, if at all, are you concerned about any rise in interest rates affecting your ability to afford your mortgage payments? 12% 30% 24% 28% 7% 20172014 Very concerned Fairly concerned Not very concerned Not at all concerned Don't know 6% 23% 30% 39% 3% 2018 Base: 527 mortgage holders, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018
  15. 15. 15 5 6 9 8 10 7 19 28 6 2 6 7 9 11 11 5 16 21 11 3 …£24 or less per month …between £25 and £49 per month …between £50 and £74 per month …between £75 and £99 per month …between £100 and £124 per month …between £125 and £149 per month …£150 or more per month I would have no difficulties Don’t know None of these 2018 2014 Mortgage rates Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker What is the smallest amount your monthly mortgage repayments would have to increase for you to find it difficult to afford it? I would find it difficult to afford my monthly mortgage payments if they went up by... Base: 527 mortgage holders, interviewed between 16 March – 11 April 2018
  16. 16. 16Document Name Here | Month 2015 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Further information: ben.marshall@ipsos.com stephen.finlay@ipsos.com

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