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Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker: Q2 2015

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Confidence in rising property prices reached its highest level in May 2015 since the inception of the Housing Market Confidence Tracker survey, before relaxing slightly in June (Q2) 2015. House price optimism (the proportion of Britons who expect the average UK property price to rise over the next 12 months, less the proportion who think it will fall) reached +68 around the time of the General Election in May 2015, and has since slipped back to +64 as measured in the June 2015 survey wave.

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Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker: Q2 2015

  1. 1. © Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here Ipsos MORI SlideShare summary of findings & trends 29/06/2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2014
  2. 2. © Ipsos MORI * House Price Outlook (HPO) * benchmark given = £196,067 (source: Halifax HPI May 2015) % mentioning Q. …Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price*] 3 31 28 7 18 Lower by 15% or more Lower by 10%- 15% Lower by 5%- 10% Lower but less than 5% lower The same Higher but less than 5% higher Higher by 5%- 10% Higher by 10%- 15% Higher by 15% or more 7 Don’t know Lower Higher * 1 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,960 GB adults 16+, 12-22nd June 2015 3
  3. 3. © Ipsos MORI +9 -2 +7 +19 +15+15 +20 +33 +40 +64+66+65+66 +62 +57 +62 +52 +60 +64 +58 +68 +64 -20 0 20 40 60 80 HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+) Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPI] Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+ House Price Outlook trend
  4. 4. © Ipsos MORI +9 -2 +7 +19+15+15 +20 +33 +40 +64+66+65+66+62 +57 +62 +52 +60+64 +58 +68+ 64 -28 -32 -48 -14 -32 -9 -6 -19 0 +23 +15 +23 +29 +24 +19 +5 +12+11 +21 +21 +26 +16 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 HPO EOI HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Q. Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? (EOI) Source: EOI – Ipsos MORI (measures in advance of HMCT fieldwork) HPO and EOI trends Source: HPO – Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
  5. 5. © Ipsos MORI +9 -2 +7 +19 +15+15 +20 +33 +40 +64 +66 +65+66 +62 +57 +62 +52 +60 +64 +58 +68 +64 18 13 10 24 15 11 13 21 30 41 51 56 57 53 51 55 52 56 59 56 60 59 -20 0 20 40 60 80 HPO Selling sentiment Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? HPO and selling sentiment Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Selling sentiment – % agree good time to sell HPO – + balance of % higher minus % lower Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
  6. 6. © Ipsos MORI ‘Higher’ trends 3% 7% 28% 31% 18% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker % the same % < 5% higher % 5 - 10% higher % > 15% higher % 10 - 15% higher Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
  7. 7. © Ipsos MORI ‘Lower’ trends *% 1% 4% 18% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker % the same % < 5% lower % 5 - 10% lower % > 15% lower % 10 - 15% lower Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
  8. 8. © Ipsos MORI -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Net (±) Net good time sell Net good time buy -43 -63 +18+17 Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker -64 +15 -38 +24 -55 +23 -62 +27 Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+ Apr 2011 Oct 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2012 June 2012 Oct 2012 Dec 2012 +20 -58 +25 -42 Mar 2013 +27 -26 June 2013 Sept 2013 +12 +35 -6 Dec 2013 Buying and selling sentiment Mar 2014 +24 +25 +34 +25 +5 Jul 2014 +11 +19 Sept 2014 +26 +24 +14 +25 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 +27 +21 Jan 2015 +35 +27 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 +21 +33 +26 +30 Apr 2015 +27 +34 May 2015 +25 +32 June 2015
  9. 9. © Ipsos MORI Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? Good time buy/ good time sell 12% 16% 41% 14% Buying/selling sentiment combined Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 1,960 GB adults 16+, 12 June – 22 June Good time buy/ bad time sell Bad time buy/ good time sell Bad time buy/ bad time sell 0 -2 -2 +2 + change vs May 2015
  10. 10. © Ipsos MORI 66% higher Regional dimension: house prices Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax 69% higher GB London South England 70% higher North England 82% higher Base: 1,960 GB adults 12 June – 22 June 2015, including 306 in London, 273 South England (SE, SW), 596 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 334 in the Midlands. 60% higher Midlands 5% lower 4% lower 5% lower 7% lower3% lower
  11. 11. © Ipsos MORI 50% bad time Regional buying sentiment Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy a property? Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax GB London South England North England Midlands 22% bad time 56% good time 49% good time 37% bad time23% bad time 31% bad time 64% good time 61% good time 38% good time Base: 1,960 GB adults 12 June – 22 June 2015, including 306 in London, 273 South England (SE, SW), 596 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 334 in the Midlands.
  12. 12. © Ipsos MORI 69% good time Regional selling sentiment Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax 27% bad time GB London South England North England Midlands 59% good time 53% good time 19% bad time 30% bad time 67% good time 49% good time 32% bad time Base: 1,960 GB adults 12 June – 22 June 2015, including 306 in London, 273 South England (SE, SW), 596 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 334 in the Midlands. 19% bad time
  13. 13. © Ipsos MORI Mortgage and savings interest rates – trend 48% 26% 5% 11% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Mortgage interest rates higher Savings account interest rates higher Mortgage interest rates lower Savings account interest rates lower Q5a. In 12 months’ time do you think mortgage interest rates will be higher, lower or the same? Q5b. In 12 months’ time do you think interest rates for savings account rates will be higher, lower or the same? Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: 950 – 1,960 All Adults 16+ % mortgage higher % mortgage lower % savings higher % savings lower
  14. 14. © Ipsos MORI 55% 47% 35% 33% 17% 14% 10% 9% 9% 3% 3% 2% Raise deposit Job security Rising property prices Household finances Availability of mortgages Concerns - interest rate rises Shortage of property for sale Shortage of the right type of property Fees and costs of buying a house Level of stamp duty / taxation Don’t know Falling property price Q. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property? Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Barriers to buying Change + vs Mar 2015 -6 +3 +1 +1 -2 +2 -1 -3 +1 +2 -4 -1 Base: 976 GB adults 16+, 12 June – 22 June 2015
  15. 15. © Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 % job security % finances % rises in interest rates % rising property prices % raise enough deposit % mortages % shortage want to live % shortage want to buy % falling property prices % fees and costs % stamp duty/taxation 10% Q5. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property? Barriers to buying – trend data 55% 47% 35% 33% 17% 14% 9% 2% Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Base: c.976 - 2,000 British adults 16+ 3%
  16. 16. © Ipsos MORI Paste co- brand logo here ben.marshall@ipsos.com | 020 7347 3461 elizabeth.copp@ipsos.com | 020 7347 3165 29/06/2015© Ipsos MORI Further information is available here

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