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Devolution - A Public Perspective

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This presentation on public attitudes to devolution was given to National Housing Federation Devolution Conference in Manchester on 9th February 2016 by Nicola Moss, Director, Ipsos MORI North.

Publicada em: Notícias e política
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Devolution - A Public Perspective

  1. 1. © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 1Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Northern Echo: Give us powers to fix housing crisis Devolution A public perspective Nicola Moss Nicola.moss@ipsos.com 0161 826 9421 @IpsosMORINorth
  2. 2. 2Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) What is worrying the general public Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 May 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003 May 2004 May 2005 May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 May 2014 May 2015 NHS UNEMPLOYMENT CRIME/LAW & ORDER ECONOMY IMMIGRATION* *Up until September 2014 the code was race relations/immigration/immigrants HOUSING
  3. 3. 3Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) At record levels elsewhere What do you see as the most/other important issues? Housing 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 May 2014 May 2015 Base: c.1,000 British adults, c.150 adults from London, c.280 adults from the North age 18+ interviewed face-to-face in home each month since 2008 London/South East GB Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index North
  4. 4. 4Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) At the time of the election Word cloud based on 1243 survey responses from adults aged 18-75 from Election Uncut. 10th-13th April 2015 Removed common English words and single mentions, otherwise image shows unedited verbatim. Data is qualitative and unweighted. Source: BBC Ipsos MORI Election Uncut Community COST OF HOUSING A CONCERN, WITH NEED FOR MORE AFFORDABLE HOUSING 67% ‘getting on the property ladder is one of the most important ways of getting on in life’ 72% ‘local rents or ’local house prices 70% are too high’ 69% ‘unless we build many more new affordable homes we will never be able to tackle the country’s housing problems’ Base: 1243 UK adult online community members aged 18-75, surveyed online 10th – 13th April 2015 51% think that issue of housing has been discussed too little over the last few years
  5. 5. 5Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 63 % higher House prices Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax 68% higher GB London South England 76% higher North England 79% higher Base: 1,956 GB adults 11 Sept – 24 Sept 2015, including 297 in London, 303 South England (SE, SW), 557 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 377 in the Midlands. 58% higher Midlands 7% lower 3% lower 5% lower 5% lower 3% lower
  6. 6. 6Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 46% bad time Buying sentiment Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy a property? Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax GB London South England North England Midlands 53% good time 30% bad time 25% bad time 33% bad time 58% good time 40% good time 38% bad time Base: 1,956 GB adults 11 Sept – 24 Sept 2015, including 297 in London, 303 South England (SE, SW), 557 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 377 in the Midlands. 50% good time 53% good time
  7. 7. 7Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 60% good time Selling sentiment Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax 32% bad time GB London South England North England Midlands 52% good time 47% good time 28% bad time 35% bad time 64% good time 43% good time 38% bad time21% bad time Base: 1,956 GB adults 11 Sept – 24 Sept 2015, including 297 in London, 303 South England (SE, SW), 557 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and 377 in the Midlands.
  8. 8. 8Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 57% 42% 36% 31% 17% 16% 11% 10% 9% 3% 3% 2% Being able to raise enough deposit Job security Household finances Rising property prices The general availability of mortgages Concerns about rises in interest rates Fees related to buying a house Shortage of property for sale Shortage of the right type of property The level of stamp duty/taxation Falling property prices Don’t know Q. Main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property? Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker Barriers to buying Change + vs June 2015 +2 -5 +3 +2 0 +2 0 0 0 +1 -4 -1 Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 12 – 24 Sept 2015
  9. 9. 9Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index Source: Ipsos MORI/Political MonitorBase: 1,040 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Nov1997 Jun1998 Jan1999 Aug1999 Mar2000 Oct2000 May2001 Dec2001 Jul2002 Feb2003 Sep2003 Apr2004 Nov2004 Jun2005 Jan2006 Aug2006 Mar2007 Oct2007 May2008 Dec2008 Jul2009 Feb2010 Sep2010 Apr2011 Nov2011 Jun2012 Jan2013 Aug2013 Mar2014 Oct2014 May2015 Dec2015
  10. 10. 10Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) National concern about future effects of cuts has decreased significantly Source: Ipsos MORI/Issues IndexBase: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 As you may know, the government has announced a number of spending cuts to help reduce the national debt To what extent, if at all, have you and your family been affected by the cuts so far? 8% 8% 25% 15% 49% 39% 10% 37% 8% 2 November 2012 August 2015 A great deal A fair amount Not very much Not at all Don't know 76%23% 59%33%
  11. 11. 11Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 11 31% 27% 16% 21% 12% 18% 16% 15% 21% 16% 4% 3% Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know 2015 2013 Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll But, people more likely to agree than disagree that cuts to welfare gone too far… 48% 31% 37%47% I think cuts to welfare and benefits have gone too far
  12. 12. 12Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 12 40% 37% 25% 26% 16% 19% 17% 22% 11% 14% 11% 16% 10% 9% 18% 19% 18% 16% 26% 12% 6% 5% 4% 4% Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know I think cuts to welfare and benefits have gone too far AB 2013 (334) Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll  TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? Social classes DE most likely to think welfare cuts gone too far, but ABs are moving more in line 42% 44% 25% 48% TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? DE 2013 (296) DE 2015 (245) AB 2015 (389) 56% 56% 31% 28%
  13. 13. 13Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) DEVOLUTION ‘EXPRESS’
  14. 14. 14Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 Highest concentrations of awareness in the North Q. How much do you know about the proposals for devolving more power to local councils, or groups of councils, within England? Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831) 23% 25% 27% 22% 19% 21% 20% 17% 3% 17% 34% 25% 17% 3% A great deal A fair amount Just a little Heard of, but know nothing about Never heard of Don't know 16% % knowing ‘a great deal’ or a ‘fair amount’ about devolution 76%
  15. 15. 15Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831) But don’t assume support follows Q. To what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose giving more decision-making powers (on issues such as economic development, transport, housing, planning and policing) to local areas? 14 16 19 14 15 18 17 20 18 17 57 54 53 48 46 46 46 44 42 49 Yorkshire and The Humber North West South West East Midlands West Midlands South East Greater London North East East of England Overall % Oppose % Support Net +% +42 +38 +33 +34 +31 +29 +28 +24 +24 +32
  16. 16. 16Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 Messages to support the devolution principles 59% 59% 56% 42% 33% 22% Councils and other local agencies can be more flexible in responding to changing local demand Local politicians know better than national politicians what is best for the local area Local politicians are more accountable to local people Better joining up and co-ordination between public services in the local area Standards of public services will improve in the local area It will save money when delivering services Q. Why do you say you support devolving more powers to local areas? Base: All adults stating they support devolution (1862)
  17. 17. 17Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 The challenging Perceptions 58% 58% 44% 43% 41% 41% 39% 36% 27% Standards of services risk being different depending on where you live – a ‘postcode lottery’ I don’t trust local politicians to make the right decisions for the local area It will lead to services being less joined up It will do nothing to improve local services It won’t lead to savings Local politicians do not always know what is best for the local area It will cost money to implement Standards of service will decline in the local area I think taxes will increase Q. Why do you say you oppose devolving more powers to local areas? Base: All stating they don’t support devolution (656)
  18. 18. 18Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 It’s a balancing act….the public has not quite made up its mind 16% 12% 26% 12% 7% 26% Q. Which of these statements comes closest to your views about devolution and local services in your area? Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831) I am more likely to support devolution if it means local services could differ from other areas of the country I support devolution regardless of whether it means local services could differ from other areas of the country I am less likely to support devolution if it means local services could differ from other areas of the country I do not support devolution regardless of whether it means local services could differ from other areas of the country None of the above Don’t know
  19. 19. 19Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 most do not care who makes the decisions, ……….as long as services are delivered well. 14% 7% 38% 29% 22% 36% 15% 14% 6% 8% 5% 6% I don’t care who is responsible for making decisions about services in my local area so long as they are delivered well I trust local politicians/councillors more than national politicians/MPs and ministers to make decisions about services in my local area Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/nor Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements…? Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831) 52% 36%
  20. 20. 20Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Fieldwork dates: 18° Sept to 29° Sept 2015 But..housing and transport should be locally controlled 17% 25% 35% 36% 44% 56% 64% 65% 57% 47% 47% 38% 26% 18% New housing developments Transport, such as buses/cycle network & trains Schools and further education colleges Crime and policing services Health and social care services New infrastructure projects related to air/rail/road networks Welfare benefit payments, such as HB and CTC Nationally Locally Q10. Do you think decisions should be taken nationally for England as a whole or locally by local bodies such as councils or other local service providers? Base: All adults aged 16-75 in England (3831)
  21. 21. 21Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Britain for Homes? Much more so… 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2010 2013 2014 % support % oppose % neither Q. Would you support or oppose more homes being built in your local area? Source: British Social Attitudes Survey 28% 56% 46% 21%
  22. 22. 22Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Strong support for Brownfield site development
  23. 23. 23Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree, in principle, that existing Green Belt land in England should be retained and not built on. …and Green Belt retention Base: 845 adults aged 15+ in England, 3-12 July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/CPRE
  24. 24. 24Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Q. In England, the Green Belt is…To what extent do you agree or disagree, in principle, that existing Green Belt land in England should be retained and not built on? All groups & geographies favour retention but some relative differences +71 +57 +57 +57 +56 Semi-rural* 65+ AB Owner 55-64 High +26 +37 +38 +36 +42 Low London 25-34 Private renter DE 45-54 + net agree (% agree - % disagree) Base: 845 adults aged 15+ in England, 3-12 July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/CPRE * Small base size (n=50)
  25. 25. 25Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) A risk of flight from the capital is an opportunity Base: 1,000 adults in London 18+, 27 August – 7 September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI / London Councils …44% (This rises to 64% of private renters) …34% (This rises to 48% of private renters) ‘I would consider leaving London if house prices and rents continue to rise’ ‘I am considering moving out of London and taking a job in different city or region because the rent/ mortgage costs in London are too high’
  26. 26. 26Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Realisation of the Northern Powerhouse? 2 6 20 26 17 6 23 The ambitions of the Northern Powerhouse will be realised in my lifetime Certain to happen Very likely to happen Fairly likely to happen Fairly unlikely to happen Very unlikely to happen Certain not to happen Don't know Source: Ipsos MORI 28% say in their lifetime Base: All adults (16-75) living in the North of England (530)
  27. 27. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 27 Nicola Moss Ipsos MORI North 0161 826 9421 Nicola.moss@ipsos.com @IpsosMORINorth Good luck!

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