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Dear Westminster: We need to talk

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Publicada em: Notícias e política
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Dear Westminster: We need to talk

  1. 1. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Political Leadership How much does it matter? Dear Westminster We need to talk….
  2. 2. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Ben Page Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI
  3. 3. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London We’re drifting apart
  4. 4. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London The dominance of the two main parties is falling 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month to November 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter. Figures based on all voting pre-November 2002, all certain to vote from November 2002 onwards How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 1976 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014
  5. 5. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Our age gap is too big
  6. 6. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London All data points represent > 200 responses Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party? By 2025, only 24% of population will feel attached to a particular political party 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born 1945-1965) Generation X (born 1966-1979) Generation Y (born 1980-) Generation Z (born after 2000) Total % Yes 51% 24%
  7. 7. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Fear versus hope
  8. 8. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Which of these has been more important in your decision to vote – because you are hopeful for the future if your side wins, or fearful if it loses? The Scottish referendum wasn’t a resounding result in favour of the status quo All expressing an opinion (923). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014 Hopeful 80% Fearful 16% Neither 2% Don't know 3% Hopeful 36% Fearful 58% Neither 2% Don't know 3% Yes supporters No supporters Source: Ipsos MORI
  9. 9. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London 2% 19% 24% 26% 23% 6% 2%1 0% 24% 23% 31% 11% 3% 23% 28% 24% 14% 7% Strongly disagree Neither agree nor disagree Government distrusted at all levels How strongly, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? “[xxx] acts in the best interests of people like me” Base: 1,967 British adults 16+, 26 September – 3 October 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Strongly agree Tend to disagree Don’t know Tend to agree Local government UK Government European Parliament 21% 49% 26% 38% 12% 54%
  10. 10. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Although we’re confused about what we want instead Which, if any, of the following statements best represents your views on how laws ONLY affecting England should be made? Base: 2,008 British adults 15+, 18th- 24th July 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI 22% 33% 33% Laws only affecting England should be made by a separate English Parliament Laws only affecting England should be made by the House of Commons, but only English MPs should be able to vote on them Laws only affecting England should be voted on by all MPs in Parliament, as they are now
  11. 11. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London I’ve found someone else
  12. 12. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London So far this year….. UKIP have taken third place and reached a record high. Those thinking they are a wasted vote have fallen from 57% to 41%. The SNP have taken a record lead over Labour in Westminster voting intentions in Scotland. The Greens equalled their best ever performance, matching the LibDems for three months and attracting LibDem switchers who were going to Labour.
  13. 13. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London You don’t trust me any more
  14. 14. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London ...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not? No new crisis of trust in politicians? Base: c.1,000-2,000 Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Doctors Pollsters Civil servants Journalists Politicians
  15. 15. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London How much do you trust a British government of any party to place the needs of this country above the interests of their own political party? But long-term decline in trust in “government” Source: British Social Attitudes, 1986-2009 0 10 20 30 40 % % “almost never”
  16. 16. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London It’s not you it’s me
  17. 17. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London All data points represent > 200 responses Do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion? It’s not just politics – similar generational issues in attitudes to religion 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 % Yes Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born 1945-1965) Generation X (born 1966-1979) Generation Y (born 1980-) Total Source: Ipsos MORI reanalysis of British Social Attitudes
  18. 18. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London All data points represent > 200 responses “How much do you agree or disagree that … the creation of the welfare state is one of Britain's proudest achievements.” % “Agree” 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000) Trend Source: Ipsos MORI reanalysis of British Social Attitudes And in our attachment to the welfare state
  19. 19. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London And as for 2015? A loveless election…
  20. 20. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London No one will win! Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor March 2010 Thinking ahead to the next general election, which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely? 24% 37% 22% 10% 1%6 % Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th -10th November 2014 Con majority Hung – Con biggest party Hung – Lab biggest party Lab majority Other Don’t know Lab largest = 32% Con largest = 61% November 2014 9% 27% 46% 9% 1% 9% Con largest Lab largest = 55% = 36% Hung Parliament = 73% Hung Parliament = 59%
  21. 21. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
  22. 22. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London Political Leadership How much does it matter? Thank you ben.page@ipsos.com benatipsosmori

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