Business and Brexit: The risks of taking a stance

Is it worth getting involved? | April-May 2016 | Version 1 | Public
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1
#IpsosMORILive
Business & Brexit
The risks of taking a stance

Is It Worth Getting Involved? | April-May 2016 | Version 1 | Confidential
Gideon Skinner
Research Director
Ipsos MORI

Is it worth getting involved? | April-May 2016 | Version 1 | Confidential 3
There are three characteristics of
the public’s attitudes to Britain’s
membership of the EU
changeable,
ignorant,
and half hearted
Hugo Young, This Blessed Plot

Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre
Ignorant? At least rarely relevant…
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
0
10
20
30
40
May
1997
Jul
1998
Sep
1999
Nov
2000
Jan
2002
Mar
2003
May
2004
Jul
2005
Sep
2006
Nov
2007
Jan
2009
Mar
2010
May
2011
Jul
2012
Sep
2013
Nov
2014
Jan
2016
Cameron becomes PM
Lowest score
recorded (1%)
UKIP come first in European
Parliament elections
Treaty of Accession:
10 new EU Member States
France and Holland reject
ratification of EU constitution
Highest score since June
2003 (23%)
Between 2005 and 2015 on average
5% said EU was important issue
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
4

Changeable?
If there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay
in or get out of the European Union, how would you vote?
Base: 504 British adults, 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
5
26%
60%
63%
52%
49%
53%
51%
41%
61%
51%
65%
29% 27%
36% 35%
32%
39%
49%
27%
36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Feb-78
Feb-80
Feb-82
Feb-84
Feb-86
Feb-88
Feb-90
Feb-92
Feb-94
Feb-96
Feb-98
Feb-00
Feb-02
Feb-04
Feb-06
Feb-08
Feb-10
Feb-12
Feb-14
Feb-16
Stay in Get Out

Half-hearted?
What does the EU mean to you personally?
Source: Standard Eurobarometer 84 Public Opinion in the EU – Autumn 2015
6
49
35
27
26
25
24
23
22
19
16
14
14
14
9
41
11
17
25
22
30
23
19
15
11
11
15
22
9
Freedom to travel, study & work anywhere in the EU
Euro
Peace
Cultural diversity
Waste of Money
Not enough control at external borders
Bureaucracy
Stronger say in the world
Democracy
More crime
Unemployment
Economic Prosperity
Loss of our cultural identity
Social protection
EU 28 UK

Is it worth getting involved? | April-May 2016 | Version 1 | Confidential 8
2016
Europe

49%
39%
8%
3% *%
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION ALL 9/10 AND ALWAYS/USUALLY VOTE
Remain still has the advantage
– but turnout makes it hard to call
QA) As you may know the United Kingdom will have a referendum on its membership of the
European Union on the 23rd of June this year. How will you vote on the question – should the
United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
QB) If undecided/refused) which way would you be most inclined to vote?
Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
9
Remain Leave Undecided Would not vote Refused
50%
44%
6%1%*%

Who is voting to remain/leave?
Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
10
50%
22%
23%
98%
47%
32%
30%
34%
51%
35%
44%
42%
67%
65%
2%
46%
52%
57%
54%
34%
54%
44%
Con
Lab
LibDem
UKIP
Men
Women
18-34
35-54
55+
ABC1
C2DE
Leave Remain
QA) As you may know the United Kingdom will have a referendum on its membership of the
European Union on the 23rd of June this year. How will you vote on the question – should the
United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
QB) If undecided/refused) which way would you be most inclined to vote?

Remain and leave voters
motivated by very different issues
Looking ahead to the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union on
June 23rd, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping
you decide which way to vote?
Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016 (548 remain supporters, 379 Leave supporters) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
11
21%
47%
25%
20%
9%
8%
16%
40%
14%
7%
8%
15%
14%
4%
Impact on Britain’s economy
Number of immigrants coming into Britain
Britain’s ability to make its own laws
Cost of EU immigration on GB's welfare system
Impact on British jobs
Britain’s ability to trade with countries in EU
Cost of EU membership fees
Unprompted – top responses only
Remain supporters Leave supporters

Could people be persuaded
to change their vote?
You said that you would vote for the UK to remain in/leave the EU. Now thinking about
the issue you said was most important to you, if you were persuaded that on that issue
it would be best for Britain to leave/stay in the EU, how likely, if at all, would you be to
change your mind and vote to leave/remain in the EU?
Base: British adults 18+ expressing an EU voting intention and an important reason (457 remain supporters, 327 leave), 16th – 18th April 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
12
Would definitely
change my vote
Would probably
change my vote
Would probably not
change my vote
Would definitely
not change my vote
Don’t
know
7%
27%
25%
36%
4%
REMAIN VOTERS LEAVE VOTERS
5%
21%
20%
50%
4%

Both sides think they are going to win…
Thinking ahead to the referendum on European Union membership,
which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely?
Base: 560 remain supporters and 337 leave supporters aged 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
13
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Britain will vote to remain a
member of the European Union
Britain will vote to leave
the European Union
Don’t know
77%
13%
10%
REMAIN VOTERS LEAVE VOTERS
43%
48%
9%

Although few doubts among
Captains of Industry
As you may know, the government has pledged to hold a referendum on the United
Kingdom’s membership of the European Union by 2017
Base: British Captains of Industry (102) Interviewed Sept – Dec 2015
14
Which outcome of the
referendum do you think would
be best for your business?
And which outcome would
you personally prefer?
And if there were a referendum now
on whether Britain should stay in or
leave the European Union, how
would you vote?
UK staying in/Stay in UK leaving/Get out Don’t know Refused
87%
7%
4% 2%
87%
7%
3% 3%
83%
12%
2%3%

Carl Phillips
Research Director
Ipsos MORI

Is it worth
getting involved?

1) Does anyone want business to get involved in
the referendum debate?
2) Will the public listen or trust business if they do
get involved?
3) What will be the impact of getting involved?
I am going to answer
three questions you may have:
17

47%
42%
32%
27%
23%
15%
13%
68%
16%
42%
26%
19%
28%
10%
Government ministers
Backbench MPs
Large businesses and corporations
Shadow ministers
Trade and business associations
High profile CEOs/ business leaders
Politicans from the devolved
assemblies
MPs and Journalists want business
to take a leading role
And which two or three of those should take a LEADING ROLE in the
EU referendum campaign?
%TOPMENTIONS
All MPs
All Business &
Finance Journalists
Large business and corporations
Trade and business associations
Base: All MPs (108) and all B&F Journalists (88) asked, Winter 2015
18
High profile CEOs / business leaders

75%
69%
68%
68%
61%
57%
54%
52%
52%
51%
Small and medium-sized British businesses
Big British businesses which trade internationally
Academics
Big British businesses which only trade in the UK
Trade union officials
Big European businesses which trade in the UK
Think tanks
Newspapers
Local councils
Bankers
And the public are also keen
Who should take part in the EU referendum campaign by publicly backing
one side or the other?
Base: All respondents (2007)
19
Small and medium-size British businesses

20
“Remain” want a broader debate
Who should take part in the EU referendum campaign by publicly backing
one side or the other?
80% 74%
78% 63%
76% 63%
71% 68%
70% 48%
Remain Leave
Base: Remain (842), Leave (816),
Small and medium-size British businesses
Academics

But can you influence anyone?
So business has license to contribute
to the debate
Base:
21

Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre All who have decided how to vote (1658)
22
Firstly, who can you reach?
73% of
the public
claim to have
made up their
mind on the
referendum
already
23% say
their might
still change
their mind

Banking and media may want to sit this one out
23
Which industry sectors, if any, do you trust the least when it comes to the EU
referendum?
36% said the
Banking industry
28% said the Media
(e.g. Print, Television
and Radio)

73%
66%
64%
46%
46%
36%
36%
31%
29%
26%
16%
12%
Friends and family
Academics
Small business owners
Work colleagues
The ordinary man/woman in the street
My immediate manager at work
Leaders of large businesses
The head of my company
Civil servants
Trade union officials
Journalists
Politicians generally
There are trust issues…
Who do you trust on issues relating to the referendum on EU membership?
Base: May change mind (388)
24
May change my mind
Leaders of large business

…which vary according to stance
Base: All respondents (2007), Remain (842), Leave (816)
25
Who do you trust on issues relating to the referendum on EU membership? Top 3
72%
69%
55%
Friends and
family
Academics
Small business
owners
Remain
77%
63%
57%
Friends and
family
Small business
owners
The ordinary
man/woman in
the street
Leave
Leaders of large business 35% 24%

But what about those who
have already got involved?
Trust issues are potentially a barrier to
businesses contributing effectively
Base:
26

Lord Wolfson, the CEO of Next, wrote an article in the
Telegraph newspaper calling for Britain to leave the
European Union.
All who have at least heard of Next from split sample (986)
27
8% of the British public were
aware Lord Wolfson wrote this

Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of Next from split sample, Remain (433), Leave (387)
28
Remain
Leave
1%
24%
35%
4%
58%
66%
I’m more favourable
towards them
I feel the same
way about them
I’m less favourable
towards them
Has your opinion of Next changed?

Have you taken action against a business
you disagreed with?
Which, if any, of the following have you ever done as a result of hearing
that a company has behaved in a way that you disagree with?
29
30% - I have
boycotted a company
and never gone back
to that company again
22% - I have written
to a company to
complain
20% - I have
recommended that
others boycott a
company
57% have taken at
least one form of
action

Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of Next from split sample (986)
30
1% of the British public are aware
that Lord Wolfson wrote that letter
and say that they will take some
form of action against Next

Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of Next from split sample, Remain (433), Leave (387), Undecided (191)
31
8%
86%
2% 4%
REMAIN
85%
10%
5% 1%
89%
6% 4%
UNDECIDEDLEAVE
Does hearing the CEO of Next’s opinion on the EU referendum
have any influence on how you would vote?
It makes me
more likely to
vote to remain
It makes no difference
It makes me
more likely to
vote to leave
Don’t know

Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of EasyJet from split sample (991)
32
aware Dame McCall did this
Dame Carolyn McCall, the Chief Executive of EasyJet, was
one of 200 business leaders who signed a letter to the
Times newspaper saying that they believed that Britain
would be better off staying in the European Union.

Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of EasyJet from split sample, Remain (412), Leave (416)
33
How has your opinion of EasyJet as a company changed?
Remain
Leave
15%
2%
1%
31%
76%
63%
towards them
I feel the same
way about them
towards them

Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of EasyJet from split sample (991)
34
that Dame Carolyn signed this letter
and say that they will take some
form of action against EasyJet

Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of EasyJet from split sample, Remain (412), Leave (416), Undecided (188)
35
9%
87%
4%
REMAIN
1%
82%
13%
4% 7%
87%
3% 3%
UNDECIDEDLEAVE
Does hearing the CEO of EasyJet’s opinion on the EU referendum
It makes me
more likely to
vote to remain
It makes me
more likely to
vote to leave
Don’t know

Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of BMW or Rolls Royce (1971)
36
aware BMW had said this
BMW, which owns Rolls Royce and Mini, sent an email to
its car workers in the UK saying that the company gets a
“significant benefit” from being part of the European Union and
that leaving the EU could affect its UK employees.

Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have heard of BMW or Rolls Royce, Remain (831), Leave (806)
37
Remain
Leave
19%
2%
7%
45%
69%
47%
towards them
I feel the same
way about them
towards them
How has your opinion of BMW as a company changed?

Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of BMW or Rolls Royce (1971)
38
that BMW wrote this and say that
they will take some form of action
against BMW

Source: Ipsos Reputation Centre Base: All who have at least heard of BMW or Rolls Royce, Remain (831), Leave (806), Undecided (379)
39
9%
86%
1%4%
REMAIN
It makes me
more likely to
vote to remain
It makes me
more likely to
vote to leave
Don’t know
2%
79%
15%
4% 6%
85%
6% 3%
UNDECIDEDLEAVE
Does hearing BMW’s opinion on the EU referendum

While many people are keen to have
business contribute to the referendum
debate, the number who actually trust
what business has to say is much lower
40
The public still don’t trust business much
Right now it is limiting the ability of
business to contribute

… many people have made up their mind
and changing it will be hard
… Brexit supporters in particular are
unlikely to be influenced easily
… any intervention is going to annoy
someone
… but that annoyance is unlikely to
damage you significantly (if at all)
Base:
41
Contribute if you want but remember…

To date, no company has committed 100%
to the campaign
If one did, they may well be able to exert
more influence
But probably at the cost of a greater
negative response
Base:
42

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