Rich Ferguson, RETI Coordinator, CEERT

1. RETI &
California Solar Development
Rich Ferguson, PhD
Research Director, CEERT
June 4, 2009

2. Transmission Policy Decisions
• A very brief description of RETI
– California’s Renewable Energy Transmission
Initiative.
– http://www.energy.ca.gov/reti/index.html
• Good policy decisions need a good
quantitative foundation.
– Historical example – banning atmospheric nuclear
testing.
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3. Conceptual Transmission Planning
• Characterize renewable resource areas;
• Identify potential network additions to existing
system likely needed to access resource areas and
deliver energy to load centers;
• Identify potential environmental conflicts;
• Modify proposed additions;
• Assess renewable and environmental attributes
of proposed additions quantitatively.
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4. Assessment Flow Chart
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5. Renewable Net Short
Total Retail RPS Retail Net Short
Sales (2020) Sales 2008 2020
LSE Name (GWh) (GWh) (GWh)
SMUD 2,084
Other TANC 2,000
PG&E 93,627 9,774 21,123
PG&E Direct Access 6,814 ??? 2,249
SCE 99,142 12,573 20,144
SCE Direct Access 9,405 ??? 3,104
LADWP 27,776 1,968 7,754
IID 4,216 671 720
Other SCCPA 9,969 498 2,791
SDG&E 21,113 1,047 5,920
SDG&E Direct Access 3,113 ??? 1,027
Totals 68,916
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6. Sample of Shift Factor Matrix
INYK_KRAM_1 IRMT_SCEJ_1 IRMT_SCEJ_2 JULH_DESC_1
Owens Valley 0.6588 0.0058 0.0058 -0.0006
Palm Springs 0.0002 -0.0261 -0.0261 -0.0016
Pisgah 0.0000 0.0142 0.0142 -0.0021
Riverside East 0.0003 -0.0636 -0.0636 -0.0262
Round Mountain-A -0.0013 0.0046 0.0046 0.0000
Round Mountain-B -0.0013 0.0046 0.0046 0.0000
San Bernardino - Baker 0.0006 0.0045 0.0045 0.0008
San Bernardino - Lucerne 0.0000 0.0106 0.0106 -0.0015
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7. Sample CREZ Data
Phase 2A Capacity (MW) updated 3/27
CREZ Name Biomass Geoth. Solar Th. Wind Total
Baja 0 0 0 2,368 2,368
Barstow 0 0 1,400 936 2,336
British Columbia 0 90 0 250 340
Carrizo North 0 0 1,600 0 1,600
Carrizo South 0 0 3,000 0 3,000
Cuyama 0 0 400 0 400
Fairmont 138 0 2,000 1,380 3,518
Imperial East 0 0 1,600 123 1,723
Imperial North-A 0 1,370 0 0 1,370
Imperial North-B 30 0 1,800 0 1,830
Imperial South 36 64 3,150 45 3,295
Inyokern 0 0 2,145 287 2,432
Iron Mountain 0 0 5,600 62 5,662
Kramer 0 24 6,185 203 6,412
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8. CREZ Data
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9. Line Segment Assessment
• Criterion A – Total Energy Score
• SegmentScore(j) = SUM [ShiftFactor(j,k) × TotalEnergy(k)]
•
• In which:
• SegmentScore(j) is the jth line segment in the plan;
• ShiftFactor(j,k) is the absolute value of the shift factor for segment(j) and CREZ(k);
• TotalEnergy(k) is the total energy potential of CREZ(k)
• SUM indicates that the all of the results of the multiplication are to be added together.
•
• Similarly:
•
• Criterion B1 – Energy Weighted by Adjusted Economic Score
• SegmentScore(j) = SUM [ShiftFactor(j,k) × TotalEnergy(k) × AdjEconScore(k)]
•
• Criterion B1 – Energy Weighted by Adjusted Environmental Score
• SegmentScore(j) = SUM [ShiftFactor(j,k) × TotalEnergy(k) × AdjEnviroScore(k)]
•
• Criterion C – Energy of Commercial Interest Score
• SegmentScore(j) = SUM [ShiftFactor(j,k) × CommIntEnergy(k)]
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10. Draft Line Segment Results
CREZ CREZ Combined Combined
ABS Cutoff Energy CREZ CREZ Commercial CREZ CREZ
Shift Shift Score Econ Enviro Interest Energy Energy
Segment Factors Factors (GWh) Score Score Score (GWh) Factor Score
ALPH4_ALPH1_1 0.07 0 423 12089 6754 305 1.03 435
ALPH4_ALPH1_2 0.07 0 423 12089 6754 305 1.03 435
ALPH4_PARK_1 0.08 0 579 17016 9295 405 1.02 593
ALPH4_PARK_2 0.08 0 579 17016 9295 405 1.02 593
ANTE_VINC_1 0.73 4 11845 429720 204451 12927 1.27 15,096
AV58_CHCV_1 0.20 0 1143 34389 18020 902 1.07 1,223
BAKR1_BARS1_1 0.90 3 6083 139217 98432 3380 0.92 5,569
BANN_AV58_1 0.17 0 893 27594 14249 670 1.06 945
BANN_CHCV_1 0.21 0 1151 35869 18290 870 1.06 1,221
BANN_DEVR_1 3.22 10 19623 589513 317690 14261 1.04 20,472
BANN_ELCN_1 0.16 1 1006 24547 15781 870 1.07 1,082
BANN_GEO_1 0.59 2 4290 140224 74928 1146 0.84 3,604
BANN_GEO_2 0.59 2 4290 140224 74928 1146 0.84 3,604
BARS1_LUGO_1 1.32 4 8570 187857 132070 3628 0.84 7,157
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11. Line Segment Groups
Group CREZ Accessed
Foundation all
Tehachapi Tehachapi, Fairmont
Imperial Imperial North A&B; Imperial South; Imperial East; Baja
IronMt Iron Mountain; Pisgah; Needles
BarrenRidge Inyokern, Kramer, Tehachapi, Fairmont
Delivery all
Pisgah Pisgah; Iron Mtn; SB Lucerne
MtPass S. Nevada, Mtn Pass, Baker, Barstow
Riverside Riverside East; Palm Springs; 29 Palms
NorthEast Round Mtn A&B; Lassen N&S; N. Nevada
LEAPS
Inyo Central Nevada, Inyokern, Kramer
North British Columbia, Oregon, Round Mtn
Carrizo Carrizo North, Carrizo South, Cuyama
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12. Segment Environmental Scores
Criterion D – Energy Access Relative to Environmental Concern
Segment Rating Score = Combined Energy Access Score ÷ Environmental Score
Environmental Score =
EnvFactor × LenVal × ROW_Val ×CharVal
Where:
EnvFactor = Value assigned for each type of right of way associated with the line
segment.
LenVal = Value assigned to section according to segment length.
ROW_Val = Value assigned to the segment’s right of way category.
CharVal = Value assigned to the segment’s construction category.
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13. Caveats and Limitations
• Assessment results are preliminary and subject to
change.
• Only renewable energy and environmental
attributes have been assessed.
• Best available data changes with time
– CREZ development potential
• BLM decisions
– Environmental concerns
– Cost estimation
– Uncertainty
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14. Caveats and Limitations – cont.
• Assessment results are preliminary and
subject to change.
• Conceptual plan configuration changes with
time
– Power flow studies
• Limitations of shift factor analysis
– Scenarios
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15. Caveats and Limitations – cont.
• Assessment results are preliminary and
subject to change.
• Assessment methodology can be improved
– Simple summation of line segment energy
information to provide group information can be
improved.
• Scenarios must be examined.
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16. CREZ
Draft Group Scores
CREZ CREZ CREZ Combined Group Group
Energy Econ Enviro CommInt CREZ Energy Enviro Cost
Group Name (GWh) Score Score (GWh) (GWh) Score ($Million)
Foundation 51,190 1,515,622 812,237 130,424 52,759 1119 $3,481
Tehachapi 27,838 864,591 455,880 84,221 30,947 97 $728
Imperial 21,819 663,634 358,435 52,045 22,219 837 $1,311
Delivery 12,308 377,683 197,609 32,482 12,945 739 $1,075
IronMt 11,960 258,344 195,551 24,061 10,928 131 $832
Riverside 9,134 224,815 152,990 19,881 8,756 419 $1,081
Pisgah 8,473 196,096 133,922 21,602 8,411 396 $588
MtPass 7,730 173,215 123,731 14,229 6,885 252 $798
NorthEast 3,782 102,595 54,507 18,647 5,055 600 $735
LEAPS 4,625 131,975 73,114 11,912 4,753 246 $162
BarrenRidge 3,800 133,489 64,867 13,454 4,618 77 $208
North 3,410 135,942 52,773 7,495 3,536 401 $3,898
Inyo 3,686 127,854 59,346 2,031 2,880 88 $656
Carrizo 2,600 52,692 39,904 5,391 2,351 20 $78
Median Value 8,102 184,655 128,827 19,264 7,648 324 $766
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17. Draft Group Scores
Group
Combined Group Group
CREZ Energy Enviro Cost
Group (GWh) Group Score Group ($Million)
Tehachapi 30,947 Carrizo 20 Carrizo $78
Imperial 22,219 BarrenRidge 77 LEAPS $162
IronMt 10,928 Inyo 88 BarrenRidge $208
Riverside 8,756 Tehachapi 97 Pisgah $588
Pisgah 8,411 IronMt 131 Inyo $656
MtPass 6,885 LEAPS 246 Tehachapi $728
NorthEast 5,055 MtPass 252 NorthEast $735
LEAPS 4,753 Pisgah 396 MtPass $798
BarrenRidge 4,618 North 401 IronMt $832
North 3,536 Riverside 419 Riverside $1,081
Inyo 2,880 NorthEast 600 Imperial $1,311
Carrizo 2,351 Imperial 837 North $3,898
Median 5,970 Median 249 Median $731
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21. If You Don’t Like the Results…
• Improve ?
– Configuration
– Line segment data
– CREZ data
– Environmental data
– Cost data
– Assessment methodology
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22. Conclusions
• Solar development depends on transmission
decisions.
• Conceptual plan and assessment results
provide a quantitative foundation for these
decisions.
• RETI stakeholder participation is open to all.
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