Water resources – Future prospects and implications for food security
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Presented by IWMI’s Director General - Jeremy Bird at the IGC GRAINS 2015, 24th International Grains Council Grains Conference, held at the Grosvenor House Hotel, London, on 9th June 2015.
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Water resources – Future prospects and implications for food security
- 1. Water resources – future prospects and implications for food security Jeremy Bird International Water Management Institute Led by: Photo: Graeme Williams / IWMI
- 2. As water demand increases ….. …need a new approach to water security Source: UN Water
- 4. Global grain trading: imbalances likely to increase
- 5. Source: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/graphic/2012/feb/14/water-footprint-world-map Virtual water: a reflection of global food trends
- 6. Water and grains: the vital link 2015 2050 1 2 22% 1 2 44% 2.4bn 4.8bn Without investments in water management the number of food-insecure people could double by 2050 Increasing threat by unsustainable water use: Threat to global economy Threat to food security Threat to world’s grain production 39% 50% Source: IFPRI and Veolia Water, 2013 Photo: Hamish John Appleby/IWMI
- 7. Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Food supply under pressure Photo: Bob Morris
- 8. Source: 10 Things You Ought to Know about Water. Circle of Blue. 2009. http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2009/world/infographic-ten-things-you-should-know-about-water/ TRENDS: Transition in water use – agriculture to industrial
- 9. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 10 100 1000 10000 100000 GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year) meatconsumption (kg/cap/yr) Meat China India 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 10 100 1000 10000 100000 GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year) milkconsumption (kg/cap/yr) Milk China India USA USA Consumption and income (1961-2000) Source: IWMI Meat requires 100 times more water than grain protein
- 10. Livestock: demand is growing, but water use can be reduced Can reduce water use by: • Feeding with agricultural by-products and crop residues • Selecting and breeding crops and forages that use water efficiently • Closing crop yield gaps • Increasing animal productivity e.g. dairy buffalo – reduced water use by more than 75%: from 2350 to 548 litres Photo: Faseeh Shams / IWMI
- 11. Greater variability will impact on food production Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) Source: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC)
- 12. Droughts and floods: a growing influence on food prices Wall Street Journal illustration: http://farmpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/MI- BQ581_FOOD_G_20120809184205.jpg
- 13. Photo: ILRI Mozambique ,2008 Food shortage and price rises – a precursor to food riots
- 14. Photo: Hamish John Appleby/IWMI Improved water management now on the global agenda
- 15. Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2014. World Economic Forum, Global Risks 2015 - Insight Report The water crisis: a global risk to business
- 16. Identifying solutions for a water-stressed world 1. Sustainable groundwater management 2. More efficient use of surface water 3. Living with floods and droughts 4. Re-using waste Photo: Hamish John Appleby/IWMI
- 17. Recent data on water withdrawals from USA show that withdrawals in 2010 were lower than at any time in the past 40 years Demand side management measures can make a difference Increased water consumption is not inevitable Economic productivity of water (GDP per 100 gallons) Source: Pacific Institute Water withdrawals and GDP
- 18. 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 Irrigatedareain1000ha Canal irrigated area Tank irrigated area Groundwater irrigated area Canal Tanks Growth of irrigation in India driven by groundwater Source: Mukherji et al. 2013.
- 19. India: Twin cases of ‘over-abstraction’ and ‘under-utilization’ Source: IWMI
- 20. Improving groundwater governance: Jyotigram Yojana, India Power rationing led to more sustainable groundwater use, reduced electricity use and increased yields Photo: Hamish John Appleby/IWMI Source: IWMI
- 21. Jyotigram Yojana – separating electricity feeder lines Electricity Network Before Electricity Network After
- 22. Managing demand: swipe cards for pump operation Photo courtesy: BMDA, Bangladesh Photo courtesy: The Water Channel
- 23. Providing Incentives for renewable, sustainable and more efficient groundwater use Photo: Prashanth Vishwanathan / IWMI
- 24. Solar pumps – renewable, but sustainable? Getting the incentives right. Infographic: Rachel Cramer / IWMI
- 25. Source: University of Nebraska-Lincoln The Nebraska solution: recovery of water levels
- 26. Incentives in India - rapid expansion of drip irrigation – suitability depends on context Photo: Hamish John Appelby / IWMI
- 27. Precision surface irrigation: A viable alternative to drip irrigation Pakistan: Land and Water productivity increases, reduced diesel costs Photos: Arif Anwar / IWMI
- 28. Agriculture to urban transfers, China Agricultural production levels maintained… … as water allocation to agriculture is reduced and transferred to urban use Water transfers between sectors can be managed Source: IWMI. 2007. Transferring water from irrigation to higher valued uses: A case study of the Zhanghe irrigation system in China.
- 29. Murray Darling Basin: Water trading system View graph - http://www.nwc.gov.au/__data/assets/image/0008/29780/Figure-3-8- MurrayGoDarling-Basin-monthly-water-allocation-trading-activity- percentage-of-volume-traded-and-average-price-2008-09-to-2011-12.jpg
- 30. Against the grain?: Beer from cassava reduces water demand Photo courtesy: Nile Breweries Ltd. Photo courtesy: Wikimedia Commons
- 31. Research into action: reducing water use in coffee, Vietnam • Coffee - 3% of Vietnam’s GDP; employs around 2 million people • Water scarcity is the main threat • Many farmers over-irrigating • Research showed ‘water stress’ and strategic timing of irrigation boosted yield • Savings on water and production costs Photo Credit: Creative Commons, Wikimedia
- 32. Losses to agriculture from floods and droughts Source: US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
- 33. Breeding flood-tolerance – “Scuba” rice • 4 million tons of rice lost to floods in India and Bangladesh, annually • Scuba rice resilient to complete submergence up to 17 days • In India, 12 million hectares of flood-prone land under scuba rice Source and Photo: IRRI 2008
- 34. January-April average min. temperature C° 7.58.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.5 WheatyieldYaquiValley(Ton/Ha) 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 2010 2011 2006 2007 2002 2008 2000 2004 2005 2003 2001 2012 2009 2013 y= 11.55 - 0.65X r2 =0.75 Adapting to climate change: Heat-tolerant wheat prove value in Mexico 10C increase = 700 kg lower yield 2014 Source: H.-J. Braun, CIMMYT 2015
- 35. Rethinking storage : Underground ‘taming’ of floods for irrigation (UTFI) Source: Paul Pavelic / IWMI 2012
- 36. Providing information to improve management decsions
- 37. Peri-urban: high risk polluted water use driven by city markets Photo: IWMI
- 38. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Diluted wastewater or polluted water Untreated wastewater Groundwater Treated wastewater River Other surface water bodies Rainfed Irrigation canal Open drainage Numberofcities In and around three of four cities in the developing world, farmers use polluted irrigation water for the production of high-value crops Global survey - irrigation source in urban & peri-urban areas
- 39. Photo: Pay Drechsel/IWMI Wastewater: a valuable asset
- 40. Wastewater re-use: reducing health risks IWMI‘s role • Assessing the extent of reuse, risks and benefits. • Developing & testing low-cost options for microbial risk reduction (from farm to fork). • Supporting international guidelines and capacity building.
- 41. Securing water for a sustainable agricultural future Need a major initiative on sustainable groundwater management… ..common problems – but context specific solutions Photo: Hamish John Appleby/IWMI
Editor's Notes
- Not enough food is produced where it is needed. Imbalances likely to increase as diet and population changes
- Unsustainable water use currently threatens: 39% of the world’s grain production Food security of 2.4 billion people 22% of the global economy Taken from an IFPRI and Veolia Water study from 2013 http://www.veolianorthamerica.com/sites/g/files/dvc596/f/assets/documents/2014/10/19979IFPRI-White-Paper.pdf
- Producing 1 kg of animal protein requires about 100 times more than producing 1 kg of grain protein
- Much of this work was done under the CGIAR Challenge Programme for Water and Food. References: http://waterandfood.org/2011/10/21/water-productivity-in-crop-livestock/ https://waterandfood.org/publications/adapting-livestock-water-productivity-to-climate-change/
- Prices and markets Food prices volatile – but do we pay for the real cost of the water we use? Or the energy we need to acquire it?
- Water will be critical – top WEF risk Note: Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood and impact of the individual risks on a scale of 1 to 7, 1 representing a risk that is not likely to happen or have impact, and 7 a risk very likely to occur and with massive and devastating impacts.
- Increases in water withdrawals are not inevitable…with right incentives we can manage stocks… Two graphical representations of this remarkable change from the Pacific Institute using data on the US economy together with the USGS water use estimates. The first shows total gross domestic product of the US from 1900 to 2010 (in inflation-adjusted 2005 dollars) together with total “withdrawals” of water for all purposes – from domestic and industrial use to irrigation and power plant cooling. As shown, the most recent water withdrawals data show that withdrawals in 2010 were lower than at any time in the past 40 years back to 1970. The second graph shows the “economic productivity” of water use, measured by the 2005 dollars of gross domestic product generated with every 100 gallons of water withdrawn. This productivity of water use has tripled since 1970 and we now get over $10 of GDP for every 100 gallons of water withdrawn. (Again, these data are adjusted for inflation.) The assumption that demand for water must inevitably grow is false. Let’s start planning for the reality that a healthy economy and population can mean more sustainable, efficient, and equitable water use. http://scienceblogs.com/significantfigures/index.php/2014/11/05/peak-water-united-states-water-use-drops-to-lowest-level-in-40-years/
- Key issues: Groundwater Huge increases in use in India and China. California now having to regulate for the first time.
- Over use encouraged by subsidized electricity leads to environmental degradation and has high energy costs
- Solutions: Governance 1. Over-use: Jyotigram: Water pricing unpopular but rationing acceptable Example of Water-energy-food 2: Under use: West Bengal: Pump permits discontinued. Approximately 1.3 million water buyers – mostly smallholders – benefited from improved access to irrigation and approximately 250 000 ha benefited from improved irrigation as a consequence (WLE 2014 annual report)
- diagram/schematic of Jyotigram – separating feeder lines physically to allow rationing to agricultural pumps.
- Barind Bangldesh meter system: farmers use charge Water pricing: Tradeable water rights: China: Qinxu Groundwater Management System
- New threat - Solar power can increase groundwater access but at risk of unsustainability. Solution: Turn solar into a cash crop
- Solution: solar power as a cash crop
- Water management improvements supported by institutional mechanisms – Nebraska natural resource districts
- Pricing may encourage more water management innovation: drip and sprinkler
- Precision surface levelling and irrigation In Pakistan, farmers have been replicating – with minimal support - IWMI’s fieldwork on precision grading for surface irrigation, which resulted in reduced tail-water run-off and deep percolation and increased land productivity of cotton by almost 12% and water productivity by approximately 11%. (WLE LWP Flagship)
- Incentives and physical improvements facilitate transfer from agriculture to urban use
- Murray Darling water trading
- Crop choice – moving away from grains http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2013-05-23/sabmiller-sells-cassava-beer-to-woo-african-drinkers Eagle Lager, the world’s 2nd largest brewer has replaced most of the barley malt in the brewing process with indigenous cassava. While barley doesn’t do well in a tropical climate, cassava is so easy to grow that Ghana and Mozambique have a surplus. SAB Miller also switching to local grains like sorghum and millet
- “Scuba rice: the makings of a runaway success story.” CGIAR Consortium. 2012. http://www.cgiar.org/consortium-news/scuba-rice-the-makings-of-a-runaway-success-story/
- Flood management. Excess floodwater through aquifer recharge upstream can be used for irrigation in the dry period. Better not to look at one problem in isolation but consider integrated solutions. Taking a basin scale approach: looking at the urban as well as rural areas.
- Natural resource districting contributed to drought mitigation…
- IWMI’s comprehensive assessment confirmed that around 3 of 4 cities across LAC, Asia and SSA, wastewater irrigation takes place. And usually with untreated wastewater.