Presented by Greg Archer (www.transportenvironment.org/people/greg-archer) on 28 March 2014 as part of the ITS Seminar Series www.its.leeds.ac.uk/about/events/seminar-series

1. The policies and politics of
regulating car CO2
Greg Archer
Transport & Environment
Leeds University
27th March 2014

2. Outline
The past
• How EU decisions are made
• Car CO2 regulations
• Key issues and influencers on
2020 car regulation
• What was finally agreed
The future
European
Council
European
Parliament
European
CommissionConclusions and questions
• Post 2020 targets
• WLTC

3. Car CO2 emissions have been regulated since 2009 on a
new car average emissions basis
95g 2020
New car
average CO2
€95/g/km >
target
7.5g/km
eco-
innovations
NEDC test
cycle
Supercredits
Utility slope
&
parameter
33kg/g/km
2025
target ?
2015
130g/km
Pooling

4. European decisions are made by consensus -
there is no in-built majority
Date Milestone
H1 2012 Commission impact assessment
May 12 Commission draft proposal in inter-service consultation
Jun 12 Commission proposal
Mar 13 Transport and Industry Committee Opinions
Apr 13 Environment Committee vote
Jun 13 Original 1st reading agreement: cars and vans
Oct 13 Council requests cars agreement renegotiated
Nov 13 Cars deal amended
Feb 14 EP Plenary confirm cars
Spring 14 Council sign off
Good outcome Weakening Serious weakening

5. In the Commission there was intense fighting over the
balance of effort between manufacturers

6. German Commission Oettinger wrote to VW explaining
how he weaken Commission proposals

7. The battle focused on 3 major issues -
95g in 2020 was not questioned until the final decision
Supercredits
• Banking
• Cap
• Multiplier
2025 targets
• Yes / No
• Level
Testing
• Conformity
checking

8. Supercredits created hot-air weakening the target &
were successfully limited
190 g/km
95g +
0 g/kmNo multiplier
95g +
Multiplier 2.5
No limit
+
Imaginary sales
Electric vehicles are over-
rewarded by failing to
account for CO2
emissions in production of
the electricity.
Supercredit multipliers
exaggerate the effect
Industry proposal
Without supercredits
+ +
+

9. German proposals to bank supercredits would have weakened
the target by 26g/km and delayed achieving 95g to 2024
95g delayed to 2024

10. Industry opposed setting a 2025 target but Parliament
proposed a range of 68-78g/km
• 95g did not require EVs
• <70g is needed to drive
investment in EVs
• The US had proposed a
2025 target
• EP was concerned at
the EU lossing its
competitive advantage
• T&E proposed 60g/km
78
54
71
52
22
46
22
24
15
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
75g 70g (1)70g (2) 60g
%newcarsales
2025 target g/km based upon NEDC
Fuel cell
Battery electric
Plug-in hybrid
Hybrid
Conventional
Type of Vehicle

11. The outcome of the June trilogue was weaker than that
proposed by Parliament – but still a good outcome
Issue Commission Parliament Council Outcome
Trilogue 1
Target 95g 2020 95g 2020 95g 2020 95g 2020
Supercredits 1.3 multiplier
applied to 200k
vehicles
1.5 multiplier
2.5g cap
2020-22
Wide range of
views
2-1.33 multiplier
2.5g cap
2020-22
Testing WLTC 2017 WLTC
2017+conformity
checking
WLTC as soon as
feasible
WLTC as soon as
feasible
2025 Post 2020 target 68-78g/km No post 2020
target
Commission
declaration

12. FR
BE
DK
PT
NL
SE
FI
GR
SI UK
DE
CZ
SK
HU
ES
RO
BG
AT
IT
PL
265 17
7
Support deal Oppose deal
June Council positions
60
Blocking Minority
93
IE
Excludes small states

13. FR
BE
DK
PT
NL
SE
FI
GR
SI
UK
DE
CZ
SK
HU
ES
RO
BG
AT
IT
PL
224
Support deal Oppose deal
October Council positions
123
Blocking Minority 93
101
Excludes small states
Li

14. The November agreement weakened the 2020 target
by about 5% and delayed implementation by 1 year
Issue June agreement Final agreement
Target 100% of vehicles to achieve an average of 95g/km in
2020
95% of vehicles to
achieve 95g/km in
2020; 100% in 2021
Supercredits 2.5g/km supercredits pa 2020-2 7.5g/km supercredits
in total 2020-2
Multipliers 2.0 (2020), 1.67 (2021), 1.33 (2022) Unchanged
2025 Commission declaration to review a 2025 target of
68-78g/km in 2025 by 2015
Unchanged
Testing A new, more realistic and reliable test
procedure should be agreed as soon as feasible
Unchanged
Commission to examine potential for in-service
conformity tests
Unchanged
Commission empowered through an implementing
and delegated acts to modify targets to account for
the new test procedure
Unchanged
Derogations Exemption for manufacturers producing less than
1000 vehicles pa
Unchanged
Eco-innovations 7g/km off-cycle eco-innovation packages permitted Unchanged

15. Milestones to a 2025 regulation
2014
• Green paper
consultation
• Technical
studies
2015
• Impact
Assessment
• Commission
Proposal
2016
• 1st reading
in
Parliament
• Council
consider
2017
• 2nd reading
• Final
regulation

16. Key issues for post 2020 regulation
2025
target
?
ETS
2030
target
?
TTW or
WTW?
SlopeCosts
Mass
or
Foot-
print
Competi
tiveness
WLTC
E-
mobility
M1
only?

17. The current testing framework is not fit for
purpose and undermines the regulation
• NEDC test was not designed to measure CO2
emissions
– Test results are significantly more important for
regulation and marketing than historically
• Test is 30 years old and test procedure is outdated
• Test cycle is unrepresentative of modern cars &
modern driving
• There is a lack of independence and consistency
in the way tests are conducted
• There are no meaningful checks on production
cars to ensure these match test results
• Vehicles that have not been specially prepared
achieve test results 19-28% higher
• Performance between OEMs is highly variable

18. Conclusions
• European decision making is a democratic negotiation
between unequals
• Car regulations are based on a muddled mix of technical
uncertainty, policy preferences and political manoeuvring
• The forthcoming battle on 2025 will be even more intense
than that for 2020
– Academics are largely absent from debates – get involved!