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Gothenburg congestion charges
Maria Börjesson
Docent Transport systems analysis
Deputy Director Centre for Transport Studies, Royal Institute of
Technology
OSLO
MALMÖ
STOCKHOLM
Sweden’s second largest
city
500 000 inhabitants
Freight hub
Land use low density
River with only 3 – 4
crossings
Railway station dead-end
Outline
• Gothenburg congestion charges – Stockholm paved the way
• Effects on flows
• Effects on travel times
• Effects on public transportation
• Single issue political party and GT newspaper referendum initiative
• Media attention and discussion
• Public Acceptance
Congestion charging in Stockholm paved the
way…
Jan-July 2006 Trial
Sep 2006 Referendum
August 2007 Permanent introduction
Cordon based
Time differentiated
1-2 € per passage
Delimited by water
18 entry points
sufficient
Bypass exempted from charging
A brief history of the Stockholm charges
• Discussed since early 1990’s, but no public or political support
• Idea floated before election 2002…
• … causing the Social democratic leader to promise ”no charges”
• Green party forces through charges anyway after the election
• Liberal/conservatives rejoice, charging supporters mistrust…
• Charges introduced January 2006, abolished August 2006,
referendum September
• Small majority in favour of charges!
• Charges reintroduced permanently August 2007
• Large majority in favour now (60-70%)
Factors for political support
Main reasons for previous political opposition:
• Who decides about scheme design?
• Who decides about revenue use?
• What happens with national infrastructure grants?
• In Stockholm solved through ”package approach”
• Gothernburg also wanted congestion charges
Non-financed wishinglist of investment:
• Västlänken - Rail tunnel under the city 2 billion €
• Marieholmstunneln - Road tunnel under the river 0.5 billion
€
• A broad coalition was formed from left to right supporting
congestion pricing
Objectives and constraints
• 80 million € net revenue in 2015.
• Congestion reduction (required by the law)
• Fit under the existing legislation
• Logical and easy to understand for users.
• ANPR (Automatic Number Plate Recognition) technology from
Stockholm
• Tax to be paid 06.00 am – 18.30 pm.
• Same fare for all non-exempted vehicles
ANPR
• Very effective
• No driver ”action”
necessary
• Invoice each month –
can pay either
manually or
automatically
Gothenburg: Designing charges is difficult
• Working days (6:00 -18:29)
• Max 60 Kr per day
• One payment (the highest) when
passing multiple times within 60
min)
Gothenburg congestion charges
Traffic flows
Traffic flows across the cordon
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
v
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v
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v
49
v
50
v
51
v
52
Volume accross the cordon weekdays charged hours
Charged hours 2012 Charged hours 2013
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
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Volume accross the cordon weekdays morning peak 06.30-08.30
Morning peak 2012 Morning peak 2013
The model over predicted the effect
14
Cordon AM Peak Day
Traffic flow over cordon -20,4% -14,2%
Departure time choice
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
0
45
130
215
300
345
430
515
600
645
730
815
900
945
1030
1115
1200
1245
1330
1415
1500
1545
1630
1715
1800
1845
1930
2015
2100
2145
2230
2315
Time of Day
Volume accross the cordon weekdays
2012
2013
Large route choice effects
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839
reduction at different checkpoints
Large route choice effects
Difficut to model:
The predicted effect is very sensitive to the
value of time in the route choice
Route choice
October 20, 2011
18
Difficut to model:
The effect become very sensitive
to the value of time in the route
choice
• 78 million €
• Slightly less than forecast
Revenues
Travel times
Travel times
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
E6 Syd [Torrekulle - Tingstadstunneln]
2012 - Median 2013 - Median
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
E6 Norr [Kungälv-Tingstadstunneln]
2012 - Median 2013 - Median
On the most congested link
there is some effect ….
But on all other links the
effect is almost negligible...
What happened to disappearing traffic?
Trips
Work - to transit
Work - remaining
Professional traffic -
remaining
Discretionary - to
Ess.Discretionary -
"disappeared"
Professional traffic -
"disappeared"
Discretionary -
remaining
Public transport increase 5-
7% across the cordon
Occupancy on express busses
Acceptability
Media attention and discussions
Trying to avoid paying
Achieving public support
• Initial support very low
• ”the most expensive and painful way to commit political suicide ever devised”
• Changed once effects were apparent: 53% in the referendum
• Increased further over time: now 65-70% support
”Charges heading for the
ditch”
”Bypass threatened by
chaos”
”Charging chaos
continues”
”Stockholm loves the
charges”
”Charges a success”
”Thumbs up for the
charges”
Vägvalet, Referendum autumn 2014
• Over 50 000 people have signed their
support to a referendum on congestion
charging. The highest number ever in
Sweden newspapers say.
• The arguments used:
• The issue was never taken up by
politicians in a realistic, normal way
• The revenues go largely to a tunnel
with a negative social benefit
• Other taxations are a cheaper to raise
revenue
• Scheme design is unfair to Hisingen
Customer service centre
• Most asked questions
• Why are the checkpoints placed there where they are placed
• Is the congestion tax, tax deductible
• Why isn’t there a free alternative like in Stockholm
Acceptability Gothenburg
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Definately ”Yes" Possibly ”Yes” I cannot say Possibly ”No" Definately ”No”
2013
2014
• Support
• Nov 2012 33%
• Nov 2013 50%
• Stronger support in the
city of Gothenburg than
in the surrounding
municipalities
• Identical survey in Stockholm, Lyon, Helsinki in spring 2011
• Questions about travel behaviour, socioeconomics, and attitudes
to transport pricing, fairness, and congestion pricing in particular
• In Gothenburg autumn 2012 and 2013
How is attitudes to congestion pricing formed?
What is the role of experience?
• Self-interest – winners/losers [political economists]
• Long-term attitudes to… [psychologists, sociologists]
• pricing as an allocation mechanism
• taxes and public interventions in general
• environmental problems
• Equity issues
• Socioeconomics
• Experience
Factors that may affect acceptability
Indicators of attitudes
Indicators of attitudes
ENV RIGHT PRICING RED
Considerably more resources should be
used to protect the nature.
+
Automated speed cameras is a good way
to save lives
+
Traffic congestion is one of the worst
problems in Gothenburg
+
Car traffic is one of the worst threats to
the nature.
+ -
It is too Expensive to own, drive and
park cars.
+
Taxes are too high. +
Airplane tickets should cost more. +
Charter operator raises its prices when
weather is bad.
+
Space on a ferry is allocated by pricing. + +
Space on a ferry is allocated by
assessed need.
+
The state should prioritize reducing
differences between rich and poor.
+ +
Low-income drivers get a discount on
congestion charges
+
Factor Analysis
Number of estimated parameters: 41 39 39
Number of observations: 3008 1582 1426
Final log-likelihood: -3892.31 -1955.10 -1913.43
Likelihood ratio test: 1897.77 1182.05 763.26
Rho-square: 0.20 0.23 0.17
Name Value Robust t-test Value Robust t-test Value Robust t-test
B_Bike_freq 0.11 2.64 0.08 1.4 0.14 2.3
B_Car_freq -0.13 -2.46 -0.14 -1.95 -0.11 -1.41
B_PT_freq 0.16 3.69 0.13 2.17 0.18 2.9
B_Cars1 -0.31 -2.71 -0.33 -1.99 -0.35 -2.19
B_Cars2 -0.51 -1.9 -1.31 -2.64 0.14 0.45
B_Effect PT Congestion -0.05 -1.44 -0.04 -0.92 -0.07 -1.29
B_Effect Quallity PT 0.31 7.98 0.33 6.79 0.27 4.19
B_Effect Volume 0.07 1.69 0.08 1.47 0.06 0.9
B_Effect Shopping -0.13 -4.29 -0.10 -2.57 -0.18 -3.31
B_Effect Travel Time 0.21 5.11 0.16 3.1 0.31 4.48
B_Female -0.18 -1.92 -0.20 -2.07 0.25 2.36
B_CompanyCar 0.36 2.1 0.18 0.71 0.50 1.95
B_Income 0.12 3.61 0.09 1.95 0.17 3.42
B_PT satisfaction 0.11 5.2 0.11 3.8 0.11 3.6
B_Toll_freq1 0.01 0.12 0.00 0 0.02 0.16
B_Toll_freq2 -0.20 -1.69 -0.19 -1.13 -0.20 -1.19
B_Toll_freq3 -0.28 -2.36 -0.31 -1.95 -0.24 -1.32
B_WTP1 0.24 3.17 0.37 3.47 0.11 1.07
B_WTP2 0.20 4.56 0.14 2.3 0.26 4.21
B_WTP3 -0.47 -0.91 0.52 0.6 -1.21 -2.02
Const 0.91 1.9 0.82 1.27 0.92 1.33
ENV 0.02 5.53 0.02 4.66 0.0119 2.94
EQUI 0.00 0.08 -0.01 -0.85 0.00711 0.89
RIGHT -0.18 -18.61 -0.18 -13.28 -0.172 -13
SCARCE 0.02 2.37 0.02 1.68 0.0154 1.69
Female13 0.47 3.26
Year13 -0.06 -0.26
tau1
tau2 1.36 27.91 1.44 21.06 1.30 18.03
tau3 2.26 37.42 2.34 27.04 2.20 24.94
tau4 3.97 47.03 4.21 33.06 3.84 32.17
• Create many winners, few losers
• Smart scheme design => large congestion relief
• Do not focus on taxing and revenues
• Pricing viewed as a ”natural” mechanism
• Play the environment card
• Many burn for the environment – few burn for ”efficient use of road space”
• The equity argument does not seem to be important
• Acceptability not on the normal right-left political spectrum
Achieving acceptability
• Congestion Pricing without congestion to finance new
infrastructure.
• Increase PT use (!)
• Volume reduction
• Small travel time reductions
• Non-work trips vanish (do not diver to other modes).
• Stable effect after 8 month
• But less accurate predictions than ins Stockholm
• More route choice effects?
• The 1 hour rule?
Summing up:

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Congestion pricing in Gothenburg

  • 1. Gothenburg congestion charges Maria Börjesson Docent Transport systems analysis Deputy Director Centre for Transport Studies, Royal Institute of Technology
  • 2. OSLO MALMÖ STOCKHOLM Sweden’s second largest city 500 000 inhabitants Freight hub Land use low density River with only 3 – 4 crossings Railway station dead-end
  • 3. Outline • Gothenburg congestion charges – Stockholm paved the way • Effects on flows • Effects on travel times • Effects on public transportation • Single issue political party and GT newspaper referendum initiative • Media attention and discussion • Public Acceptance
  • 4. Congestion charging in Stockholm paved the way… Jan-July 2006 Trial Sep 2006 Referendum August 2007 Permanent introduction Cordon based Time differentiated 1-2 € per passage Delimited by water 18 entry points sufficient Bypass exempted from charging
  • 5. A brief history of the Stockholm charges • Discussed since early 1990’s, but no public or political support • Idea floated before election 2002… • … causing the Social democratic leader to promise ”no charges” • Green party forces through charges anyway after the election • Liberal/conservatives rejoice, charging supporters mistrust… • Charges introduced January 2006, abolished August 2006, referendum September • Small majority in favour of charges! • Charges reintroduced permanently August 2007 • Large majority in favour now (60-70%)
  • 6. Factors for political support Main reasons for previous political opposition: • Who decides about scheme design? • Who decides about revenue use? • What happens with national infrastructure grants? • In Stockholm solved through ”package approach” • Gothernburg also wanted congestion charges
  • 7. Non-financed wishinglist of investment: • Västlänken - Rail tunnel under the city 2 billion € • Marieholmstunneln - Road tunnel under the river 0.5 billion € • A broad coalition was formed from left to right supporting congestion pricing
  • 8. Objectives and constraints • 80 million € net revenue in 2015. • Congestion reduction (required by the law) • Fit under the existing legislation • Logical and easy to understand for users. • ANPR (Automatic Number Plate Recognition) technology from Stockholm • Tax to be paid 06.00 am – 18.30 pm. • Same fare for all non-exempted vehicles
  • 9. ANPR • Very effective • No driver ”action” necessary • Invoice each month – can pay either manually or automatically
  • 11. • Working days (6:00 -18:29) • Max 60 Kr per day • One payment (the highest) when passing multiple times within 60 min) Gothenburg congestion charges
  • 13. Traffic flows across the cordon 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 750,000 800,000 850,000 v 2 v 3 v 4 v 5 v 6 v 7 v 8 v 9 v 10 v 11 v 12 v 13 v 14 v 15 v 16 v 17 v 18 v 19 v 20 v 21 v 22 v 23 v 24 v 25 v 26 v 27 v 28 v 29 v 30 v 31 v 32 v 33 v 34 v 35 v 36 v 37 v 38 v 39 v 40 v 41 v 42 v 43 v 44 v 45 v 46 v 47 v 48 v 49 v 50 v 51 v 52 Volume accross the cordon weekdays charged hours Charged hours 2012 Charged hours 2013 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000 130,000 140,000 150,000 v 2 v 3 v 4 v 5 v 6 v 7 v 8 v 9 v 10 v 11 v 12 v 13 v 14 v 15 v 16 v 17 v 18 v 19 v 20 v 21 v 22 v 23 v 24 v 25 v 26 v 27 v 28 v 29 v 30 v 31 v 32 v 33 v 34 v 35 v 36 v 37 v 38 v 39 v 40 v 41 v 42 v 43 v 44 v 45 v 46 v 47 v 48 v 49 v 50 v 51 v 52 Volume accross the cordon weekdays morning peak 06.30-08.30 Morning peak 2012 Morning peak 2013
  • 14. The model over predicted the effect 14 Cordon AM Peak Day Traffic flow over cordon -20,4% -14,2%
  • 16. Large route choice effects -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839 reduction at different checkpoints
  • 17. Large route choice effects Difficut to model: The predicted effect is very sensitive to the value of time in the route choice
  • 18. Route choice October 20, 2011 18 Difficut to model: The effect become very sensitive to the value of time in the route choice
  • 19. • 78 million € • Slightly less than forecast Revenues
  • 21. Travel times 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 E6 Syd [Torrekulle - Tingstadstunneln] 2012 - Median 2013 - Median 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 E6 Norr [Kungälv-Tingstadstunneln] 2012 - Median 2013 - Median On the most congested link there is some effect …. But on all other links the effect is almost negligible...
  • 22. What happened to disappearing traffic? Trips Work - to transit Work - remaining Professional traffic - remaining Discretionary - to Ess.Discretionary - "disappeared" Professional traffic - "disappeared" Discretionary - remaining Public transport increase 5- 7% across the cordon
  • 25. Media attention and discussions
  • 26. Trying to avoid paying
  • 27. Achieving public support • Initial support very low • ”the most expensive and painful way to commit political suicide ever devised” • Changed once effects were apparent: 53% in the referendum • Increased further over time: now 65-70% support ”Charges heading for the ditch” ”Bypass threatened by chaos” ”Charging chaos continues” ”Stockholm loves the charges” ”Charges a success” ”Thumbs up for the charges”
  • 28. Vägvalet, Referendum autumn 2014 • Over 50 000 people have signed their support to a referendum on congestion charging. The highest number ever in Sweden newspapers say. • The arguments used: • The issue was never taken up by politicians in a realistic, normal way • The revenues go largely to a tunnel with a negative social benefit • Other taxations are a cheaper to raise revenue • Scheme design is unfair to Hisingen
  • 29. Customer service centre • Most asked questions • Why are the checkpoints placed there where they are placed • Is the congestion tax, tax deductible • Why isn’t there a free alternative like in Stockholm
  • 30. Acceptability Gothenburg 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 Definately ”Yes" Possibly ”Yes” I cannot say Possibly ”No" Definately ”No” 2013 2014 • Support • Nov 2012 33% • Nov 2013 50% • Stronger support in the city of Gothenburg than in the surrounding municipalities
  • 31. • Identical survey in Stockholm, Lyon, Helsinki in spring 2011 • Questions about travel behaviour, socioeconomics, and attitudes to transport pricing, fairness, and congestion pricing in particular • In Gothenburg autumn 2012 and 2013 How is attitudes to congestion pricing formed? What is the role of experience?
  • 32. • Self-interest – winners/losers [political economists] • Long-term attitudes to… [psychologists, sociologists] • pricing as an allocation mechanism • taxes and public interventions in general • environmental problems • Equity issues • Socioeconomics • Experience Factors that may affect acceptability
  • 35. ENV RIGHT PRICING RED Considerably more resources should be used to protect the nature. + Automated speed cameras is a good way to save lives + Traffic congestion is one of the worst problems in Gothenburg + Car traffic is one of the worst threats to the nature. + - It is too Expensive to own, drive and park cars. + Taxes are too high. + Airplane tickets should cost more. + Charter operator raises its prices when weather is bad. + Space on a ferry is allocated by pricing. + + Space on a ferry is allocated by assessed need. + The state should prioritize reducing differences between rich and poor. + + Low-income drivers get a discount on congestion charges + Factor Analysis
  • 36. Number of estimated parameters: 41 39 39 Number of observations: 3008 1582 1426 Final log-likelihood: -3892.31 -1955.10 -1913.43 Likelihood ratio test: 1897.77 1182.05 763.26 Rho-square: 0.20 0.23 0.17 Name Value Robust t-test Value Robust t-test Value Robust t-test B_Bike_freq 0.11 2.64 0.08 1.4 0.14 2.3 B_Car_freq -0.13 -2.46 -0.14 -1.95 -0.11 -1.41 B_PT_freq 0.16 3.69 0.13 2.17 0.18 2.9 B_Cars1 -0.31 -2.71 -0.33 -1.99 -0.35 -2.19 B_Cars2 -0.51 -1.9 -1.31 -2.64 0.14 0.45 B_Effect PT Congestion -0.05 -1.44 -0.04 -0.92 -0.07 -1.29 B_Effect Quallity PT 0.31 7.98 0.33 6.79 0.27 4.19 B_Effect Volume 0.07 1.69 0.08 1.47 0.06 0.9 B_Effect Shopping -0.13 -4.29 -0.10 -2.57 -0.18 -3.31 B_Effect Travel Time 0.21 5.11 0.16 3.1 0.31 4.48 B_Female -0.18 -1.92 -0.20 -2.07 0.25 2.36 B_CompanyCar 0.36 2.1 0.18 0.71 0.50 1.95 B_Income 0.12 3.61 0.09 1.95 0.17 3.42 B_PT satisfaction 0.11 5.2 0.11 3.8 0.11 3.6 B_Toll_freq1 0.01 0.12 0.00 0 0.02 0.16 B_Toll_freq2 -0.20 -1.69 -0.19 -1.13 -0.20 -1.19 B_Toll_freq3 -0.28 -2.36 -0.31 -1.95 -0.24 -1.32 B_WTP1 0.24 3.17 0.37 3.47 0.11 1.07 B_WTP2 0.20 4.56 0.14 2.3 0.26 4.21 B_WTP3 -0.47 -0.91 0.52 0.6 -1.21 -2.02 Const 0.91 1.9 0.82 1.27 0.92 1.33 ENV 0.02 5.53 0.02 4.66 0.0119 2.94 EQUI 0.00 0.08 -0.01 -0.85 0.00711 0.89 RIGHT -0.18 -18.61 -0.18 -13.28 -0.172 -13 SCARCE 0.02 2.37 0.02 1.68 0.0154 1.69 Female13 0.47 3.26 Year13 -0.06 -0.26 tau1 tau2 1.36 27.91 1.44 21.06 1.30 18.03 tau3 2.26 37.42 2.34 27.04 2.20 24.94 tau4 3.97 47.03 4.21 33.06 3.84 32.17
  • 37. • Create many winners, few losers • Smart scheme design => large congestion relief • Do not focus on taxing and revenues • Pricing viewed as a ”natural” mechanism • Play the environment card • Many burn for the environment – few burn for ”efficient use of road space” • The equity argument does not seem to be important • Acceptability not on the normal right-left political spectrum Achieving acceptability
  • 38. • Congestion Pricing without congestion to finance new infrastructure. • Increase PT use (!) • Volume reduction • Small travel time reductions • Non-work trips vanish (do not diver to other modes). • Stable effect after 8 month • But less accurate predictions than ins Stockholm • More route choice effects? • The 1 hour rule? Summing up:

Notas do Editor

  1. Media Changed same with opinion
  2. Socio-economics not imortant