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ILC Future of Ageing 2022 - Prof. Sir Ian Diamond.pptx

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ILC Future of Ageing 2022 - Prof. Sir Ian Diamond.pptx

  1. 1. Future of Ageing: A Statistical Assessment Professor Sir Ian Diamond UK National Statistician OFFICIAL 24 November 2022
  2. 2. Population OFFICIAL
  3. 3. Successful Census Start of engagement on the transformation journey – the future of population and social statistics in England & Wales 2021 Census statistics and analysis published 2022-23 Ongoing engagement and preparation for consultation. 2022 Wider consultation Report on progress and National Statistician’s recommended next steps 2023 Ongoing transformation To deliver proposals within 2023 recommendation 2024 Transformed system Engagement Sources: Office for National Statistics – Census release plans, Population and migration statistics system transformation OFFICIAL Our vision: More frequent, timely and inclusive statistics about the population and its characteristics
  4. 4. OFFICIAL Population by age and sex UK, Mid-1951 Source: Office for National Statistics – UK population estimates, 1838 to 2020 , Demography and migration data, England and Wales; Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) - Census 2021 main statistics demography tables – age and sex; National Records of Scotland - Mid-Year Population Estimates Since 1951, our population has been increasing in age within the UK, with people living longer and moving out of the working age population Notes: 1 font size 11 Population by age and sex UK, Mid-2011 Population by age and sex UK, Census Day March 2021
  5. 5. Population aged 65 and over England and Wales, March 2021 Population aged 85 and over England and Wales, March 2021 Whilst our population is ageing, there is an unequal distribution of individuals over 65 and 85 in England and Wales, with coastal areas being particularly dense in ageing populations Source: Office for National Statistics – Census Maps, ONS OFFICIAL
  6. 6. OFFICIAL Percentage aged 65 and over living alone by age and sex 2001, 2011, and 2020, UK Sources: Office for National Statistics – calculations based on Population estimates by marital status and living arrangements, England and Wales and UK population estimates, 1838 to 2020 The percentage of individuals in the UK aged 65 and over living on their own has remained fairly consistent since 2001 but women are more likely than men to live alone Women aged 65 and over are more likely to live on their own (44.3%) than men (28.4%) in 2020 Men aged 65 and over are more likely to live in couples (70.8%) than women (50.3%) in 2020 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 2001 2011 2020 Persons Males Females
  7. 7. Health OFFICIAL
  8. 8. OFFICIAL Health in England as an overall figure measured by the Health Index declined slightly from 2019 to 2020, when compared with 2019 (-0.4pp). However, at 100.1 it remained a little above 2015 levels 2015 2020 Source: Office for National Statistics – The Health Index for England Worse = 2015 level Better Healthy People Decline by 4.2 points Healthy Lives Decline by 0.2 points Healthy Places Increase by 3.7 points From 2019 to 2020: The Health Index provides a single value for health in England and local authorities each year that can be broken down into different areas of health. This shows changes over time or differences between areas. Health Index for England Index score (England = 100 in 2015)
  9. 9. Change in healthy life expectancy by sex and age UK, between 2011 to 2013 and 2018 and 2020 • In 2018-20 healthy life expectancy at age 65 was 11.2 years for women; 10.4 years for men • Healthy life expectancy at age 65 for women had grown by 8.6 months since 2011-13; for men the growth was 4.8 months • These increases exceeded life expectancy, causing the proportion of life spent healthy to increase to 53.6% for women and 56.0% for men • In contrast, healthy life expectancy at birth was 1.2 years shorter in 2018-20 compared with 2011-13 Improvements in healthy life expectancy at middle and older ages were occurring at a time when life expectancy was growing more slowly, stalling or even reducing in some of the very oldest age groups. This improved the proportion of life expectancy spent healthy in middle and older age groups. Source: Office for National Statistics – Health state life expectancies, UK OFFICIAL
  10. 10. OFFICIAL Between 2014 to 2016 and 2018 to 2020, disability-free life expectancy in the UK decreased among those aged 35 to 39 years and under. However, for those aged 55 to 59 years and over, there were small improvements for both sexes, although these were not statistically significant Disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) at birth decreased more for females (-1.4 years) than for males. Change in disability-free life expectancy at birth by sex, between 2014 to 2016 and 2018 to 2020, UK Source: Office for National Statistics – Health state life expectancies, UK
  11. 11. OFFICIAL Personal wellbeing tend to be higher in older age groups with the exception of people aged 90 years and older who tend to score lower on personal wellbeing scores Average (mean) ratings of personal well-being for age-groups Quarter 2 2022, UK Source: Office for National Statistics – Personal well-being in the UK, quarterly 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 16 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 to 89 90 and over Mean score (1 to 10) Age groups Life Satisfaction Worthwhile Happiness
  12. 12. Ill Health and the Labour Market OFFICIAL
  13. 13. OFFICIAL UK economic inactivity by age, people aged 16 to 64 years seasonally adjusted, cumulative change from Jul 2019 to Sept 2020, for each period up to Jul to Sept 2022 Source: Office for National Statistics – Labour Force Survey Rising inactivity has been driven mainly by over 50s as this age group was responsible for over 55% of the increase in economic inactivity since the pandemic.
  14. 14. OFFICIAL Of all OLS* respondents (aged 50 to 65 years), 58% would consider returning to work. For those individuals, the most important factors when choosing a paid job were flexible working hours (32%) and good pay (23%). Amongst all respondents who have left or lost their job and not returned, 18% said they were currently on an NHS waiting list for medical treatment. Reasons for leaving paid work by age group OLS Wave 2, Great Britain, 10 to 29 August 2022 Source: Office for National Statistics – Over 50s Lifestyle Study (OLS) wave 2 *The Over 50s Lifestyle Study (OLS) was newly designed to gather more information from adults aged 50 and over Target cohort: Those 50-65 years old who had left their job since the start of the pandemic and not returned to work Reasons for leaving their job? Intention to return to the workforce? Factors which could influence their return? 1 Wave 1: February 2022 2 Wave 2: August 2022
  15. 15. OFFICIAL Cumulative change in number of people inactive owing to long-term sickness aged 16-64 years, seasonally adjusted, UK, Jan/Mar 2017 to Jun/Aug 2022 Source: Office for National Statistics - Labour Force Survey Change in economic inactivity owing to long-term sickness by age group, UK, 2019 to 2022 Source: Office for National Statistics - Labour Force Survey From 2017 to 2022, the number of economically inactive people due to long-term sickness rose from 2.0 to 2.5 million. This was largely due to an increase of 183,366 in the age group 50 to 64 years (+16%) which makes up the majority of inactive individuals due to long-term sickness (1,3 million)
  16. 16. OFFICIAL Percentage change in economic inactivity owing to long-term sickness by age group and most common primary condition, UK, 2019 to 2022 Source: Office for National Statistics - Labour Force Survey The reasons for long-term sickness vary between age groups, amongst 50-64 year olds “other” health problems and problems connected with the back or neck showed the largest increases. Those two conditions are now the most common reasons for long-term sickness in this age group.
  17. 17. Impact of the Pandemic OFFICIAL
  18. 18. OFFICIAL Official weekly estimate using modelled daily percentage of the population testing positive for COVID-19 nose and throat swabs by age group, England Older age groups remained less likely to test positive until Spring 2022 and became most likely to test positive in Autumn 2022 Source: Office for National Statistics - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey
  19. 19. OFFICIAL Age was the characteristic most associated with the risk of death involving coronavirus (COVID-19) in triple vaccinated individuals during the Omicron period The risk of death was over 30 times greater in those aged 80 years, compared with those aged 50 years. Risk Factors for Death From COVID-19 After Receiving a Booster Adults who had received 3 COVID-19 vaccinations at least 14 days ago on 31 December 2021 Source: Office for National Statistics – Chart: Evaluation of Risk Factors for Postbooster Omicron COVID-19 Deaths in England; Text: ONS publication
  20. 20. The percentage of individuals aged 60+ in England receiving vaccinations are as follows: • At least one vaccination: 96.4% • Two vaccinations: 95.8% • Three vaccinations: 92.7% Source: Office for National Statistics – Coronavirus and vaccination rates in people aged 18 years and over by socio-demographic characteristic and region, England Percentage of those aged 60+ who were unvaccinated by deprivation quintile England, 31 July 2022 The large majority of over 60s have engaged with the vaccination programme in England. However, adults who score higher on the English Index of Multiple Deprivation were less likely to be vaccinated (Least deprived) (Most deprived) OFFICIAL
  21. 21. Of 2.1 million people with self-reported long COVID at 1 October 2022, 1 million (50%) were aged 50+ years Prevalence exhibits an inverse U-shaped relationship with age, tailing off in older age groups Source: Office for National Statistics – Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK by age group and sex: four week period ending 1 October 2022 Age- and sex-specific prevalence of self-reported Long COVID ≥4 weeks after confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection among people aged 2+ years in private households UK, four weeks to 1 October 2022 Long COVID-19 prevalence is highest in people aged 50-69 years old (6.2% of female population, 4.9% of males) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2 to 11 12 to 16 17 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80+ % Age group Male Female OFFICIAL

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