Presentation slides from Prof Sir Ian Diamond (UK National Statistician) from the ILC-UK Future of Ageing Conference in London, UK, on Thursday 24 November 2022.

1. Future of Ageing:
A Statistical Assessment
Professor Sir Ian Diamond
UK National Statistician
OFFICIAL
24 November 2022

2. Population
OFFICIAL

3. Successful Census
Start of engagement on the
transformation journey – the future of
population and social statistics in
England & Wales
2021
Census statistics and analysis published 2022-23
Ongoing engagement and preparation for
consultation.
2022
Wider consultation
Report on progress and National Statistician’s
recommended next steps
2023
Ongoing transformation
To deliver proposals
within 2023
recommendation
2024
Transformed
system
Engagement
Sources: Office for National Statistics – Census release plans, Population and migration statistics system transformation
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Our vision: More frequent, timely and inclusive statistics about the population and its characteristics

4. OFFICIAL
Population by age and sex
UK, Mid-1951
Source: Office for National Statistics – UK population estimates, 1838 to 2020 , Demography and migration data, England and Wales; Northern Ireland Statistics and Research
Agency (NISRA) - Census 2021 main statistics demography tables – age and sex; National Records of Scotland - Mid-Year Population Estimates
Since 1951, our population has been increasing in age within the UK, with people living longer and
moving out of the working age population
Notes:
1 font size 11
Population by age and sex
UK, Mid-2011
Population by age and sex
UK, Census Day March 2021

5. Population aged 65 and over
England and Wales, March 2021
Population aged 85 and over
England and Wales, March 2021
Whilst our population is ageing, there is an unequal distribution of individuals over 65 and 85 in
England and Wales, with coastal areas being particularly dense in ageing populations
Source: Office for National Statistics – Census Maps, ONS
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6. OFFICIAL
Percentage aged 65 and over living alone by age and sex
2001, 2011, and 2020, UK
Sources: Office for National Statistics – calculations based on Population estimates by marital status and living arrangements, England and Wales and UK population estimates, 1838 to 2020
The percentage of individuals in the UK aged 65 and over living on their own has remained fairly
consistent since 2001 but women are more likely than men to live alone
Women aged 65 and over are more
likely to live on their own (44.3%)
than men (28.4%) in 2020
Men aged 65 and over are more
likely to live in couples (70.8%)
than women (50.3%) in 2020
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
2001 2011 2020
Persons Males Females

7. Health
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8. OFFICIAL
Health in England as an overall figure measured by the Health Index declined slightly from 2019 to
2020, when compared with 2019 (-0.4pp). However, at 100.1 it remained a little above 2015 levels
2015 2020
Source: Office for National Statistics – The Health Index for England
Worse = 2015 level Better
Healthy People
Decline by 4.2 points
Healthy Lives
Decline by 0.2 points
Healthy Places
Increase by 3.7 points
From 2019 to 2020:
The Health Index provides a single value for health in
England and local authorities each year that can be broken
down into different areas of health. This shows changes over
time or differences between areas.
Health Index for England
Index score (England = 100 in 2015)

9. Change in healthy life expectancy by sex and age
UK, between 2011 to 2013 and 2018 and 2020 • In 2018-20 healthy life expectancy at age 65
was 11.2 years for women; 10.4 years for men
• Healthy life expectancy at age 65 for women
had grown by 8.6 months since 2011-13; for
men the growth was 4.8 months
• These increases exceeded life expectancy,
causing the proportion of life spent healthy to
increase to 53.6% for women and 56.0% for
men
• In contrast, healthy life expectancy at birth was
1.2 years shorter in 2018-20 compared with
2011-13
Improvements in healthy life expectancy at middle and older ages were occurring at a time when life
expectancy was growing more slowly, stalling or even reducing in some of the very oldest age groups.
This improved the proportion of life expectancy spent healthy in middle and older age groups.
Source: Office for National Statistics – Health state life expectancies, UK
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10. OFFICIAL
Between 2014 to 2016 and 2018 to 2020, disability-free life expectancy in the UK decreased among
those aged 35 to 39 years and under. However, for those aged 55 to 59 years and over, there were
small improvements for both sexes, although these were not statistically significant
Disability-free life expectancy
(DFLE) at birth decreased
more for females (-1.4 years)
than for males.
Change in disability-free life expectancy at birth
by sex, between 2014 to 2016 and 2018 to 2020, UK
Source: Office for National Statistics – Health state life expectancies, UK

11. OFFICIAL
Personal wellbeing tend to be higher in older age groups with the exception of people aged 90 years
and older who tend to score lower on personal wellbeing scores
Average (mean) ratings of personal well-being for age-groups
Quarter 2 2022, UK
Source: Office for National Statistics – Personal well-being in the UK, quarterly
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
16 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 to 89 90 and
over
Mean
score
(1
to
10)
Age groups
Life Satisfaction Worthwhile Happiness

12. Ill Health and the Labour Market
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13. OFFICIAL
UK economic inactivity by age, people aged 16 to 64 years
seasonally adjusted, cumulative change from Jul 2019 to Sept 2020, for each period up to Jul to Sept 2022
Source: Office for National Statistics – Labour Force Survey
Rising inactivity has been driven mainly by over 50s as this age group was responsible for over 55%
of the increase in economic inactivity since the pandemic.

14. OFFICIAL
Of all OLS* respondents (aged 50 to 65 years), 58% would consider returning to work. For those
individuals, the most important factors when choosing a paid job were flexible working hours (32%)
and good pay (23%).
Amongst all respondents who have left or lost their job
and not returned, 18% said they were currently on an
NHS waiting list for medical treatment.
Reasons for leaving paid work by age group
OLS Wave 2, Great Britain, 10 to 29 August 2022
Source: Office for National Statistics – Over 50s Lifestyle Study (OLS) wave 2
*The Over 50s Lifestyle Study (OLS) was newly designed
to gather more information from adults aged 50 and over
Target cohort: Those 50-65 years old who had left their job
since the start of the pandemic and not returned to work
Reasons for leaving their job?
Intention to return to the workforce?
Factors which could influence their return?
1 Wave 1: February 2022 2 Wave 2: August 2022

15. OFFICIAL
Cumulative change in number of people inactive owing to long-term sickness
aged 16-64 years, seasonally adjusted, UK, Jan/Mar 2017 to Jun/Aug 2022
Source: Office for National Statistics - Labour Force Survey
Change in economic inactivity owing to long-term sickness
by age group, UK, 2019 to 2022
Source: Office for National Statistics - Labour Force Survey
From 2017 to 2022, the number of economically inactive people due to long-term sickness rose from
2.0 to 2.5 million. This was largely due to an increase of 183,366 in the age group 50 to 64 years
(+16%) which makes up the majority of inactive individuals due to long-term sickness (1,3 million)

16. OFFICIAL
Percentage change in economic inactivity owing to long-term sickness
by age group and most common primary condition, UK, 2019 to 2022
Source: Office for National Statistics - Labour Force Survey
The reasons for long-term sickness vary between age groups, amongst 50-64 year olds “other” health
problems and problems connected with the back or neck showed the largest increases. Those two
conditions are now the most common reasons for long-term sickness in this age group.

17. Impact of the Pandemic
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18. OFFICIAL
Official weekly estimate using modelled daily percentage of the population testing positive for COVID-19
nose and throat swabs by age group, England
Older age groups remained less likely to test positive until Spring 2022 and became most likely to test
positive in Autumn 2022
Source: Office for National Statistics - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey

19. OFFICIAL
Age was the characteristic most associated with the risk of death involving coronavirus (COVID-19) in
triple vaccinated individuals during the Omicron period
The risk of death was over 30 times greater
in those aged 80 years, compared with
those aged 50 years.
Risk Factors for Death From COVID-19 After Receiving a Booster
Adults who had received 3 COVID-19 vaccinations at least 14 days ago on 31
December 2021
Source: Office for National Statistics – Chart: Evaluation of Risk Factors for Postbooster Omicron COVID-19 Deaths in England; Text: ONS publication

20. The percentage of individuals aged 60+
in England receiving vaccinations are
as follows:
• At least one vaccination: 96.4%
• Two vaccinations: 95.8%
• Three vaccinations: 92.7%
Source: Office for National Statistics – Coronavirus and vaccination rates in people aged 18 years and over by socio-demographic characteristic and region, England
Percentage of those aged 60+ who were unvaccinated by deprivation quintile
England, 31 July 2022
The large majority of over 60s have engaged with the vaccination programme in England. However,
adults who score higher on the English Index of Multiple Deprivation were less likely to be vaccinated
(Least deprived)
(Most deprived)
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21. Of 2.1 million people with self-reported
long COVID at 1 October 2022, 1 million
(50%) were aged 50+ years
Prevalence exhibits an inverse U-shaped
relationship with age, tailing off in older
age groups
Source: Office for National Statistics – Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK by age group and sex: four week period ending 1 October 2022
Age- and sex-specific prevalence of self-reported Long COVID ≥4 weeks after confirmed or
suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection among people aged 2+ years in private households
UK, four weeks to 1 October 2022
Long COVID-19 prevalence is highest in people aged 50-69 years old (6.2% of female population,
4.9% of males)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2 to 11 12 to 16 17 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80+
%
Age group
Male Female
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