Presented at the "Pandemics and longevity: Will we die, survive, or thrive next time?" webinar, by ILC-UK Date: Thursday 16 March 2023 Time: 1.30pm – 3.00pm (GMT)

1. Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI)
Contribution to ILC Pandemic Event
Based on COVID-19 Inquiry submission
Matthew Edwards, CMI Chair March 2020 - Feb 2023
16 March 2023

2. Scope of submission
CMI COVID-19 Inquiry submission 4
• This submission is being made as part of Module 3 of the COVID-19 Inquiry
(the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare systems).
• This submission primarily addresses item 10 of Module 3: “Deaths caused
by the Covid-19 pandemic, in terms of the numbers, classification and
recording of deaths, including the impact on specific groups of healthcare
workers, for example by reference to ethnic background and geographical
location.”
• While we have provided a submission document, we are also able to send
representatives to hearings and to make oral submissions to the inquiry.
• CMI outputs are typically available only to (fee paying) CMI Subscribers.
However, the CMI can make specific documents available to the inquiry if
these would be helpful.

3. Introduction to the CMI
• The CMI is a subsidiary of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA). The
IFoA is a royal chartered and not-for-profit body which acts as the
professional body for actuaries in the UK.
• The CMI operates five committees responsible for different areas of
mortality and morbidity, and a further two committees to manage the
running of the CMI.
• All CMI committees consist of volunteers from the actuarial profession. A
secretariat undertakes most of the data collection and analysis undertaken
by the CMI. The CMI is funded through subscriptions from actuarial
consultancies, insurers and reinsurers.
• The aim of the CMI is to produce high-quality impartial mortality-focused
actuarial analysis, standard mortality tables and models of mortality and
morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities
on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.
CMI COVID-19 Inquiry submission 5

4. Pandemic Mortality Monitor
• The CMI has published analysis of weekly mortality since 2020 up to the
current date. The mortality monitor is the CMI’s most accessed resource.
• The publications are available to the public and are published weekly
(typically on a Tuesday, depending on the day the ONS publishes its
weekly deaths data): https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-
develop/continuous-mortality-investigation/other-cmi-outputs/mortality-
monitor
• The key output of the mortality monitor is the CMI’s measure of “excess”
mortality during the pandemic, shown on the following page.
• The most detailed analyses are for deaths in England & Wales, as the ONS
provides detailed data by age band for weekly deaths for England & Wales.
Some analysis is included for UK data, including an analysis of overall
excess mortality since the start of the pandemic.
CMI COVID-19 Inquiry submission 6

5. Pandemic Mortality Monitor
Comparison of weekly measures of COVID-19 deaths for England & Wales
CMI COVID-19 Inquiry submission 7
The chart above shows the CMI’s measure of excess mortality (discussed further on the next page) compared to
the number of deaths with COVID-19 listed on the death certificate published by the Office for National Statistics
and data for deaths of people within 28 days of a positive test result for COVID-19 published by the UK Health
Security Agency . The x-axis shows week number (10, 20, 30…) and year (2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023).
The chart shows that in the first wave of the pandemic, the CMI’s measure of excess deaths was significantly
higher than data published by the ONS and UKHSA, likely due to a lack of COVID-19 testing in place at the time.
All three measures implied a similar level of deaths during the second wave of the pandemic.

6. Excess mortality
• The measure of excess deaths that we have adopted in the CMI is to use
mortality in 2019 as the “expected” level of mortality, and adjust for changes
in the age and gender profile of the population since 2019.
• We believe is a more robust approach than looking at deaths or average
deaths in isolation.
• 2019 is used as it was the last “normal” year prior to the pandemic, and
mortality in early 2020 (prior to the pandemic) was broadly similar to
mortality in 2019).
• Given the measure used to calculate the level of expected deaths can have
a significant impact on the level of implied excess deaths during the
pandemic, we have published various analyses of excess deaths. This most
recent blog considers excess deaths in more detail:
https://blog.actuaries.org.uk/measures-of-excess-deaths/
CMI COVID-19 Inquiry submission 8

7. Other analyses of mortality during the
pandemic
• We also consider other measures of mortality, including mortality over the
whole year, changes in mortality compared to previous years and mortality
for different age bands. Our analysis has found that:
– Compared to 2019, mortality in 2022 as a whole was 4.5% higher,
mortality in 2021 was 6.9% higher and mortality in 2020 was 13.4%
higher.
– The rise in death rates during 2020-21 was the worst since World War
II.
– 2022 had the worst second half for mortality since 2010.
– In the UK there have been around 155,300 more deaths than expected
since the start of the pandemic. Of these, 72,900 occurred in 2020,
47,500 in 2021, and 31,000 in 2022.
– There is a striking difference in how mortality rates in 2022 compare to
2019 at different ages, ranging from 2.5% higher for ages 75-84 to 7.8%
higher for ages 20-44.
CMI COVID-19 Inquiry submission 9

8. Wider public engagement
Webinars
• During the pandemic the CMI has hosted a number of webinars to its
Subscribers to provide more detail on published analyses and engage in
discussions directly with Subscribers.
• The CMI has also attended a number of webinars during the pandemic,
including to professional groups such as the Association of Consulting
Actuaries, the Royal Statistical Society and actuarial conferences run by the
IFoA.
Public blogs
• The CMI publishes publicly accessible blogs to highlight published research
and topics of interest to subscribers:
https://blog.actuaries.org.uk/blog/tags/cmi
Ad-hoc queries from Subscribers
• The CMI regularly responds to ad-hoc queries from its Subscribers.
CMI COVID-19 Inquiry submission 14

9. Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited
Registered in England & Wales (Company number: 8373631)
Registered Office: 7th floor, Holborn Gate, 326-330 High Holborn, London, WC1V 7PP
Correspondence address: Two London Wall Place, 123 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5AU, United Kingdom
Email: info@cmilimited.co.uk
Tel: +44 20 7776 3820
Website: www.cmilimited.co.uk (redirects to www.actuaries.org.uk)
Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by and/or on behalf of Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (CMI). This document does
not constitute advice and should not be relied upon as such. While care has been taken to ensure that it is accurate, up-to-date and useful,
CMI will not accept any legal liability in relation to its contents.
© Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited