This document analyzes the sources and determinants of agricultural growth in Africa from 1970 to 2000 using panel data from FAOSTAT for 26 major agricultural producing countries. It finds that: 1) Physical capital (land, labor, fertilizer, tractors) accounted for about 50% of agricultural growth on average, with the contribution varying by region and decade. 2) Technological change (represented by total factor productivity) contributed 30-40% of growth on average but its contribution declined in later decades. 3) The remaining 10-20% of growth was due to improvements in efficiency and unaccounted factors like conflict, climate, and policy changes.

1. DISENTANGLING THE SOURCES OF GROWTH. Land, Labor, Fertilizer, Tractor, Research, Extension…… what are their exact contributions to agricultural growth in Africa: Lesson from macro-data. Guy B. Nkamleu

5. Potential sources of Ag. Growth Tractors Labor Quality Labor Quantity Chemical inputs Technology Agricultural Growth Land Random factors Livestock What drive me ? Forest clearing Population growth Cash investment Extension Climate, disasters, conflicts … Cash investment Heads Research

8. Visualisation Frontier 1 X 1 X 2 P 2 P 1 X (Input) Y(Output) P 4 A A 1 Frontier 2 B

10. TFP derivation: Malmquist Index Method Agricultural Growth Productivity Growth Efficiency Growth Technical Growth Scale Efficiency Pure Technical Efficiency

12. Yearly agricultural growth by decade in Africa (%)

13. Yearly agricultural growth by region in Africa, 1971-00 (%)

14. Growth decomposition Agricultural growth Land, Labor, Fertilizer, Tractors, … . Technological change (research) Conflict, Climate, Natural disaster …… Technical efficiency (extension) Physical factors Productivity Unaccounted factors

15. Agricultural growth contributors, 1971-00 (%)

16. Agricultural growth contributors by decade (%)

17. Agricultural growth contributors by region (%)

18. Contribution of physical inputs in the agricultural growth, 1971-00 (%)

19. Contribution of physical inputs in the agricultural growth by region, 1971-00 (%)

20. Implications for R4D Technology or Efficiency ? Technological change (research) Technical efficiency (research/extension)

21. Technology Gap and Productivity difference in African Agriculture