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Kazakhstan’s agricultural development strategy:
Capital subsidies vs. institution building
Martin Petrick, Dauren Oshakbae...
2
Agriculture in Kazakhstan
Considered a strategic sector for economic diversification due to
vast land resources & demand...
3
4
5
My presentation
1. Analysing the empirical relevance of constraints to
agricultural development (farm survey data)
2. As...
6
Survey regions
7
Overview of sample characteristics
Households Individual
farms
Agricultural
enterprises
Agro-
holdings
No. of units
in s...
8
Credit market outcomes
Households Individual
farms
Agricultural
enterprises
Agroholdings
Took a loan in 2011
(%)
7 11 26...
9
Obstacles to land access in northern grain region
Source: World Bank & IAMO farm surveys.
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Obstac...
10
Regional prices of 3rd class wheat August 2013
Source: Authors based on Kazakh-zerno.kz.
11
Cattle number by farm types (thousand heads)
Source: Statistical Agency of Kazakhstan.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
...
12
Problems with communal grazing land
Source: IAMO 2012 farm survey.
Commercial users Households
No problems Mismatch of ...
13
Main source of hay & silage supply
Source: World Bank & IAMO farm surveys.
0
20406080
100
Households
Individ farms
Ag e...
14
Main marketing channels for fresh milk
Source: IAMO 2012 farm survey.
69
3
12
16
8
23
56
13
0
67
17
17
0
20406080
100
%...
15
Value chains of beef & dairy production
Source: Authors.
Imports
e.g. frozen meat,
milk powder
Ag. enterprises &
larger...
16
Farm-level insights on relevant constraints
Farmers say: returns to agriculture too uncertain to justify credit funding...
17
Budget priorities of “Agribusiness 2020”
Source: Budget table “Agribusiness 2020”.
18
Conclusions
Modernisation of Kaz agriculture requires more than cheap credit:
 Know-how improvement of farmers, applie...
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Kazakhstan’s agricultural development strategy: Capital subsidies vs. institution building

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"Kazakhstan’s agricultural development strategy: Capital subsidies vs. institution building" presented by Martin Petrick, at Regional Research Conference “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Central Asia”, April 8-9, 2014, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

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Kazakhstan’s agricultural development strategy: Capital subsidies vs. institution building

  1. 1. Kazakhstan’s agricultural development strategy: Capital subsidies vs. institution building Martin Petrick, Dauren Oshakbaev, Jürgen Wandel Regional Research Conference: Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Central Asia - Bishkek, April 8-9, 2014
  2. 2. 2 Agriculture in Kazakhstan Considered a strategic sector for economic diversification due to vast land resources & demand prospects, visible recent recovery Significant public funding to be infused into the sector Supposed constraints:  Barely functioning market relations & widely corrupt management (quote “Kazakhstan 2030” document)  Access to capital  Land tenure restrictions  Deficient transport & storage infrastructure  Atomised livestock herds  Fodder supply  Truncated supply chains  …
  3. 3. 3
  4. 4. 4
  5. 5. 5 My presentation 1. Analysing the empirical relevance of constraints to agricultural development (farm survey data) 2. Assessing the government’s agricultural strategy 3. Conclusions Acknowledgements:
  6. 6. 6 Survey regions
  7. 7. 7 Overview of sample characteristics Households Individual farms Agricultural enterprises Agro- holdings No. of units in survey 300 245 47 8 Median land endowment (ha) 0.04 75 12,800 24,000 Farms with cattle herd 55% 37% 36% 13% Source: IAMO farm survey 2012.
  8. 8. 8 Credit market outcomes Households Individual farms Agricultural enterprises Agroholdings Took a loan in 2011 (%) 7 11 26 50 Reasons for not taking a loan (only non-borrowers, multiple answers possible): No demand at going interest rate (%) 90 82 70 38 Bank rejected application (%) 1 3 0 0 Returns in ag. too unstable (%) 76 69 43 25 Transaction cost too high (%) 48 24 15 0 Source: IAMO farm survey 2012.
  9. 9. 9 Obstacles to land access in northern grain region Source: World Bank & IAMO farm surveys. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Obstacles to renting more land: Frequency 2012 2003 Agroholdings Ag enterprises Individ farms Ag enterprises Individ farms Price determination Legal procedure Lack of supply Funding No obstacles
  10. 10. 10 Regional prices of 3rd class wheat August 2013 Source: Authors based on Kazakh-zerno.kz.
  11. 11. 11 Cattle number by farm types (thousand heads) Source: Statistical Agency of Kazakhstan. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Agricultural enterprises Individual farms Household economies
  12. 12. 12 Problems with communal grazing land Source: IAMO 2012 farm survey. Commercial users Households No problems Mismatch of yields & stocking Intermixing of livestock Spread of livestock diseases Lack of herdsmen Other problems Multiple answers possible.
  13. 13. 13 Main source of hay & silage supply Source: World Bank & IAMO farm surveys. 0 20406080 100 Households Individ farms Ag enterprises Households Individ farms Ag enterprises 2003 2011 Barter deal ag enterprise Cash deal ag enterprise Commercial supplier From own production From processor / other No hay or silage used %
  14. 14. 14 Main marketing channels for fresh milk Source: IAMO 2012 farm survey. 69 3 12 16 8 23 56 13 0 67 17 17 0 20406080 100 % Households Individ farms Ag enterprises Directly to consumer Milk collector Dairy processor Only self consumption
  15. 15. 15 Value chains of beef & dairy production Source: Authors. Imports e.g. frozen meat, milk powder Ag. enterprises & larger indiv. farms cattle herds > 10 heads Households & small indiv. farms cattle herds 2-3 heads Sources Industrial processors Local slaughterhouses & dairies Traders & middlemen Processors Exports Urban consumers Local rural consumers Consumers existing to be developed
  16. 16. 16 Farm-level insights on relevant constraints Farmers say: returns to agriculture too uncertain to justify credit funding  Land does not move to most productive users  High transaction costs & risks in grain storage & marketing  Deficient fodder management, poor livestock performance  Marketing & processing infrastructure not geared to farm structures  Availability of funding often not the most pressing constraint
  17. 17. 17 Budget priorities of “Agribusiness 2020” Source: Budget table “Agribusiness 2020”.
  18. 18. 18 Conclusions Modernisation of Kaz agriculture requires more than cheap credit:  Know-how improvement of farmers, applied R&D  Land market liberalisation  Trading infrastructure, roads, competition in storage & transport  Management of public grazing land  Public services that are competent & truly impartial wrt. farm size  Transparency & monitoring of government subsidies  Enable credit funding via commercial banks, not KazAgro  Focus on an agenda of local institution building!

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