UiPath Solutions Management Preview - Northern CA Chapter - March 22.pdf
15 enahoro impact_evaluation_health_feeds
1. Application of an agricultural sector model to the
assessment of advances in animal health and livestock
feed technologies
By:
D. Enahoro, H. Kiara, B. Lukuyu, S. Msangi
Conference on Mainstreaming Livestock Value Chains: bringing the research to
bear on impact assessment, policy analysis and advocacy for development.
Accra, GHANA, 5 – 6 November, 2013
2. Outline
Global picture of livestock production and demand
Improved livestock production as engine for socioeconomic development
Science-based options to bridging yield gaps
Animal disease control
Livestock feed development
Assessing options in the IMPACT framework
Next steps and limitations
Implications for research and policy
3. Livestock’s Global Importance
Livestock production accounts for 30% of land
surface and 70% of available agricultural land globally
Contributes 40 percent of world agriculture GDP
(mean 33% in developing countries, up to 80 in some)
Employs 1.3 billion; provides food, incomes, nonmarket benefits (do these exceed market benefits?)
Livestock products make up 23% (10%) total calories
consumed/person in developed (developing) countries
Account for a third of aggregate protein intake
Constitute 17% of global agricultural trade
Meat products and developed countries
dominate international trade in livestock products
Caveat: Livestock production can be a significant contributor to
environmental stresses: water use and pollution, greenhouse gas
emissions, deforestation, land degradation …
4. Trends in Livestock Demand and Production
250,000
140,000
120,000
200,000
100,000
Meat Africa
80,000
Meat Asia
60,000
Meat C. America
40,000
Meat Europe
20,000
Meat N. America
Milk Africa
150,000
Milk Europe
50,000
Milk N. America
Milk S. America
0
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
Milk C. America
100,000
Meat S. America
0
Milk Asia
Figure 1: Meat Demand (‘000 MTs) in
selected regions 1980 – 2009 (FAO)
Figure 2: Milk Demand (‘000
MTs), selected regions 1980 – 2009
(FAO)
5,000
140,000
120,000
4,000
100,000
Africa
3,000
80,000
Asia
60,000
C. America
40,000
E. Union
N. America
0
20,000
S. America
-1,000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Figure 3: Meat Production (‘000
MTs), selected regions 1980 - 2011 (FAOstat)
ITA
MEX
BRA
CHN
GUL
ALG
AEU
POL
SCA
NET
BRI
ARG
FRA
AUS
NZE
1,000
GER
0
2,000
-2,000
-3,000
Figure 4: Net Trade in Meat (‘000 MTs), High
export and import countries (FAOstat, 2000)
5. A Role for Livestock in Economic Development
Potential
Large smallholder sector in many developing
countries, e.g., 70 - 80% of national herd in
Tanzania, Ethiopia
Up to 900 million poor livestock keepers in sub-Saharan
Africa, south Asia (Staal et al., 2009)
Global demand for livestock products to > double by 2050
Opportunities for improved production;
incomes, nutrition, health outcomes for the poor in
developing countries?
Challenges …
Low livestock yield/productivity in smallholder systems
Issues with food safety, risks of animal-related diseases
Weak markets, institutions, policies; barriers to trade
Global climate change
6. Science-based solutions to
livestock yield and production gaps
I. Livestock Feeds
• Fodder development
e.g., Napier grass
• Dual purpose crop cultivar
development
• Feed preservation and
processing e.g., fortified
blocks, calf starters
II. Animal Health
• East Coast Fever vaccine
• Contagious Bovine
Pleuro-Pneumonia
• Peste de Petites
Ruminants
• African Swine fever
• Zoonotic diseases
including Rift Valley fever
III. Genetics and Breeding
• Breeding management*
• Reproduction
technologies (embryo
transfers, etc.)
• Animal genetic resources
data systems
• Marker-assisted
selections, etc.
• Indigenous breeds
(knowledge of)
IV. Other
• Improved livestock water
productivity
• Livestock insurance
* Knowledge and application of
principles …
7. East Coast Fever
Caused by intracellular
protozoan Theilera parva
Calves and exotic breeds
most susceptible
Endemic in 11 countries in
E., C., and S. Africa
28.7 million cattle (20%) in
high risk areas
Slaughter, border
restrictions, treatment, vec
tor methods for control
Live vaccine available;
high costs of
administration
Ken
Tan
Zim
1.1 m deaths, est. 300 m
USD related losses/year
Uga
Fig. 5: Distribution of ECF in sub-Saharan
Africa (McLeod and Randolph)
Improved multi-component
vaccine proposed
8. Livestock Feed Constraints
Poor feed quality, limited
supplies constrain expansion
of livestock production
Intensification pressures
threaten system sustainability
Technologies needed to
increase supplies & improve
qualities using minimum land
expansion
New varieties
Disease, pest etc.
control, climate resistance
Feed processing options
(Mogus, 2011) calf
starters, mineral
blocks, silage …
9. Assessing the Options
Application of the IMPACT model
Long run partial equilibrium model of world agricultural trade
45+ globally trade commodities, 115 regions/countries
300+ food production units (FPU)
8 global livestock production systems (LPS)
FPU-level crop production; FPU-LPS livestock production
FPU/LPS supply equations; country-level demand equations
for food, feed, biofuels and other uses of commodities
Model projections (to 2050):
Production (crop areas, animal
numbers, yields), demand, net trade, prices, malnutrition
rates.
Rates of return on investments, production-related GHG
emissions, etc.
10. On-going Data and Analysis Work
Specifying technical parameters for livestock technologies
Livestock production system (yield)
Food production system (feed availability and quality)
Country/region (demand)
Global (costs of international agricultural research)
Allocating global research costs. How are long-run returns
affected by:
What you invest in?
How much?
Who bears the costs, when investments are made, etc.
Assessing returns
Producer profits, consumer prices, food security and
nutrition, environment, etc.
11. Parameterizing Livestock Technology Options
Table 1: Parameters for Evaluating a Vaccine and a Feed Processing
Technology for Cattle (Kenya only*)
ECF Stress
Feed Constraint
Technology option
Multi-comp. vaccine
Calf starter
Pop. under stress
50-100%
50%
5-25%
60%
Increase births
N/A
30%
Increase yield
5-15%
30-40%
2012 - 2022
2012 - 2015
N/A
150,000 USD
N/A
10,000 USD
4.626 m USD**
250,000 USD
Exp. max adoption
5-30%
N/A
Success probability
50%
70%
Reduce (calf) mortality
R-to-Adoption timeline
Costs- R&D
- Extension
- Commercial
*Cattle distribution in Kenya: Rangelands systems 26%; Mixed 25%;
Urban 24% and Other 25%
** These are global / International costs
12. Next Steps and Challenges
Next Steps
Conclusion on specifications of technical coefficients
Model update for assessment of financial returns
Extension to tracking environmental outcomes
Explore relevant policy questions for animal health and feed options, others
Challenges
Data on productivity and potential of livestock production systems
Good estimates of research and related costs
Model (inherent) limitation to specific range of policy questions
Chain activities largely missing
13. Some Implications for Research and Policy
Analysis such as discussed could provide some
direction for international/country direction for
(agricultural) research . E.g., incentive(?) for
countries’ commitment to vaccine development
Specific input needed from the
grassroots, development (agencies) and policy
communities on the ‘most relevant’ questions and
outcomes
Some agreement on prioritizing the demands from
diverse constituents
IMPACT-based recommendations typically longrun. In line with electoral tenures?
Data! Data! Data! Iterative process required
15. Acknowledgements
This work receives its funding from:
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
The CGIAR Research Program on
Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
The CGIAR Research Program on Climate
Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
16. International Livestock Research Institute
Better lives through livestock
Animal agriculture to reduce poverty, hunger and
environmental degradation in developing countries
ILRI
www.ilri.org