1. Oksana Kuziakiv, Executive Director at the IER
Yevhen Anhel, Senior Research Fellow at the IER
Iryna Fedets, Senior Research Fellow at the IER
Anastasia Gulik, Research Fellow at the IER
Kyiv, May 12, 2023
“Spring Spirit: Are the clouds
gathering for rain?”
Main economic trends in April 2023
according to the results of The New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES

2. ABOUT THE NEW RAPID ENTERPRISES SURVEY
Monthly survey
SAMPLE: 560
enterprises were
surveyed in April
Enterprises of all
sizes
Geography: 21 out
of 27 regions of
Ukraine
Sectors: Industry +
(Retail, Agro)
12 surveys have
already been
conducted (since
May 2022)
The recent data were collected
on April 17 - 30, 2023
2
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

3. Main results 1
Performance is good, and expectations are
optimistic, but with less optimism than it was in
previous month
3
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

4. Main results 2
Assessments of the current situation in
the country and at the enterprise continue
to increase slowly while expectations
worsened a bit.
The enterprises’ performance keeps
growing, in contrast, expectations for the
next 3 months while being positive,
slightly worsened.
Uncertainty in the 6- and 3-month
perspective continues to decrease, but the
long-term remains high and without
significant changes
In April, enterprises continued the
recovering of production. % of
enterprises operating at almost full and at
full capacity is the highest in the last 12
months
The economic situation at enterprises in
April 2023 compared to April 2022
significantly improved.
Plans for the next two years remain
moderately positive and without changes.
4
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

5. Main results 3
Interruptions in electricity is no more
significant obstacle. The average loss
of working time decreased to 2%
The importance of “it is dangerous to
work" as an obstacle to doing
business continues to decline (the
wave of the survey was before russia activated
missile attacks again)
Export activity remains without
significant changes, expectations
slightly worsened
Assessments of economic policy still
positive, but lowering
5
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

6. Impediments to doing
business in wartimes
6
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

7. The main obstacles to doing business in wartime, % respondents
• Rising prices for raw materials and
goods remains in the leading position
• The importance of the interruptions of
electricity, water or heat supply as an
obstacle further decreased in April and
moved from the second to the sixth place
in the list
• Difficulties with transportation of raw
materials moved up to the second place,
although the absolute value of this
obstacle remains the same
• It was somewhat less dangerous to work in
April: the percentage of the respondents
who said that it was dangerous continued
to decrease (this wave of the survey was over
before russia activated missile attacks)
• Lack of personnel remains without
significant change
• Corruption and blocking of tax invoices
are rarely reported
7
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

8. Obstacles to production growth: pre-war context
• We used the list of obstacles to
production growth of the long-
running Business Tendency
Survey, where COVID-related
issues were the most pressing
problem before the full-scale
russian invasion of Ukraine
• Unfavorable political situation
was reported most of all among
the obstacles to production
growth in April 2023
• Unfavorable regulatory climate
has become a lesser problem due
to decreased reporting of all the
three components:
• high regulatory pressure;
• taxation;
• and corruption.
8
Source: QES 2002-2022, NRES
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

9. Light came on: no blackout
9
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

10. ”Electricity” is not a big problem anymore
• In April 2023, the % of respondents who
reported interruptions in electricity
supply as an obstacle to doing business
decreased for already third month in a
row
• In the list of obstacles, interruptions in
electricity lowered from the second to
the sixth place
10
12% 12% 11%
5% 4%
51%
78% 80% 79%
68%
46%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Aug 22 Sep 22 Oct 22 Nov 22 Dec 22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23
Interruptions with electricity as impediment for doing bussiness, %
of repondents
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

11. “It is dangerous to
work” is no more
such dangerous
11
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

12. The importance of “it is dangerous to work" as an obstacle to
work is declining for the third month in a row
• In April 2023, the share of enterprises
that reported that it was dangerous to
work decreased from 31% to 25%
• In the list of obstacles, “it is dangerous
to work“ lowered from the sixth to the
seventh place
12
34%
30%
27%
26%
18%
33%
46% 47%
39% 40%
31%
25%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Aug 22 Sep 22 Oct 22 Nov 22 Dec 22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23
"It is dangerous to work", % of respondents
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

13. “It is dangerous to work” in different dimensions
13
"It is dangerous to work" by oblast, % of respondents
• % of enterprises large enterprises that chose “it
is dangerous to work“ has decreased almost by
twice
• 85+% of respondents in Kharkivska,
Zhytomyrska, Dnipropetrovska and Vinnytska
consider insecure condition as an impediment
28%
30%
26%
41%
33%
21%
28%
24%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
up to 10 11--50 51-250 250+
"It is dangerous to work" by the size
groups, % respondents
Mar.23 Apr.23
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

14. April to April:
changes over
the past year
14
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

15. Business activity at enterprises compared to
“how it was year ago"
15
• Business activity at the
enterprise compared to “how
was year ago" has improved
for the second month in a row
• % of those who consider the
situation better increased from
41% to 50%, at the same time
• % of those for whom the
situation is worse decreased from
43% to 30%
• % of those for whom "nothing has
changed" slightly increased from
17% to 21%
• Large enterprises feel
significantly better than others
-0,72 -0,71
-0,67 -0,66
-0,62
0,24
0,44
-1,00
-0,80
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23
Balance between better/worse
assessments comparing to the
previous year (by size)
Micro Small Medium Large
-0,69 -0,68
-0,74
-0,78
-0,75
-0,02
0,20
-1,00
-0,80
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23
Balance between better/worse estimations
comparing to the previous year
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

16. Future and
Uncertainty
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023) 16

17. Perspective of two years without changes
Expectations in the two-year perspective Uncertainty in the two-year perspective
17
37,5 31,6 30,4 31,6 29,8 28,2 29,7
56,3
56,7 60,4 60,8 64,6 66,1 63,4
6,3 11,6 9,3 7,5 5,6 5,7 6,9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23
Yes, I'm planning to extend Planning to stay at the current level
Planning to lower activity
"It is hard to predict what will be with activities of our
enterprise in 2 years“, % of answer
“It is hard to predict what will be with activities of our
enterprise in 2 years" by size of enterprises, % of answers
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

18. Uncertainty about the near future continues to decrease
Half-year horizon Three-month horizon
18
22,7%
23,4%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23
% that no answer the questions about 6 months changes on...
No answer on business activity in six month
No answer on economic environment in six month
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
Export Production Sales Number of
workers
New orders
% that no answer about 3 months changes on...
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22
Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

19. Half-year expectations: a bit less high optimism
19
Business activity at the enterprise
Overall economic situation in the
country
-0,36
-0,32
-0,20
-0,22
-0,09
-0,16
-0,33
-0,24
-0,14
-0,11 -0,10
-0,02
0,07
0,15
0,12
0,03
0,11
-0,09
-0,18
0,01
0,15
0,34
0,48
0,46
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23
Business activity at the enterprise Expected business activity at the enterprise
-0,54
-0,44
-0,37
-0,28
-0,20
-0,31
-0,34
-0,28
-0,20
-0,14
-0,10
-0,07
0,01
0,16
0,09
0,01
0,12
-0,12
-0,23
0,01
0,11
0,30
0,50
0,43
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23
Current overall economic environment Expected overall economic environment
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

20. Enterprises’ past
performances
and expectations for the
future
20
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

21. In April, enterprises sped on recovering
• The share of enterprises operating at almost
full and at full capacity is the highest in the last
year:
• 8% of enterprises are working at full capacity (100%
or more), which is somewhat more than in the
previous month (5%)
• The share of enterprises working at almost full
capacity (75%-99%) increased from 47% to 50%
• The share of enterprises that do not operate
at all remains without significant changes
since last summer (3% in April)
21
Recovery in manufacturing is speeded on in "no blackout
conditions"
10% 8%
3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3%
15% 12% 10% 8% 8% 8%
3% 3% 4% 6% 5% 8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23
% of capacity utilization compared to "before
February 24, 2022", % of respondents
0% utilization capacity up to 25% 25%-49% 50%-74% 75%-99% 100% and higher capacity
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

22. Industrial Confidence Indicator
ICI= PI+VNO+(-SFG)/3
• ICI is positive
• The trend for growth was on for 4 months in
a row
BUT
• in April compared to March, it decreased
slightly: from 0,19 to 0,14.
This happens because of
The production expectation (PI)a but
decreased from 0,58 to 0,45
At the same time
• Component volume of new orders (VNO)
improved from -0,23 to -0,19
• Component stocks of finished goods(SFG)
increased from -0,21 to
-0,17
22
-0,02
0,02
0,05
0,03
0,06
0,04
0,00
0,08
0,13
0,14
0,19
0,14
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30 May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
Industrial Confidence Indicator
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

23. Production: improved performance, but less optimistic expectations
Production Export
23
• In April compared to March, the share of enterprises that planned production growth in the next 3-4 months decreased from
60.1% to 50.2%
• The share of enterprises that planned to reduce production increase from 3.8% in March to 6.1% in April
• The share of enterprises that plan to maintain production volumes in the coming months at the previous level decreased from
36.1% to 43.8%
-0,55
-0,30
-0,12 -0,09
0,05
-0,03
-0,13 -0,14
-0,04 -0,06
0,18
0,24
0,12
0,22 0,24
0,20
0,32
0,17
0,04
0,23
0,33
0,47
0,58
0,45
-0,80
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23
Production Production exp.
-0,42
-0,48
-0,31
-0,24 -0,21
-0,15 -0,18
-0,11 -0,08 -0,09
0,09 0,11
0,07
0,11 0,14 0,12
0,22
0,13
0,00
0,23 0,24
0,33
0,49
0,37
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23
Export Export exp.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

24. Sales and new orders: improving results
and worsening expectations
Sales New orders
24
-0,48
-0,36
-0,16
-0,09
0,01
-0,03
-0,14 -0,14
-0,02
-0,06
0,18
0,23
0,11
0,23 0,23 0,20
0,33
0,19
0,04
0,24
0,32
0,47
0,59
0,46
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23
Sales Sales exp.
-0,52
-0,30
-0,19
-0,02
0,01
-0,03
-0,11
-0,05
0,02
-0,04
0,20
0,23
0,10
0,19
0,25 0,23
0,34
0,21
0,15
0,29
0,33
0,44
0,59
0,45
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23
New orders New orders exp.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

25. The order book has remained at 3 months level
25
7%
16%
11%
8%
10%
8%
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
0%
20%
40%
60%
Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23
Less than 1 month 1 to 2 months 3 to 5 months
6 to 11 months 12 months or more Median
In April 2023, enterprises had no significant
change in the orders book:
• Since January 2023, enterprises had
orders for an average of 3 months
(median)
• % of those who have had no order
book for more than 1 month is
slightly decreased (from 10% in
March to 8% in April)
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

26. Employment
and labor
market
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #11, (03/2023) 26

27. Employment expectations: without changes
Number of workers Number of workers on forced leave
27
• % of enterprises planning employment growth decreased 8.3% to
5.6%
• % of enterprises intending to reduce the number of employees is
without significant changes (3.4% in March and 3.1% in April)
• % of enterprises at which no changes in employment are expected
increased from 88.3% to 91.2%
• % of enterprises that will increase the number of employees on forced
leave almost unchanged (0.9% in March and 0.5% in April)
• % of enterprises that are going to reduce employees on forced leave
almost unchanged (27.3% in March and 27.1% in April)
• % unchanged also is without significant changes (71.8% in March and
72.4% in April)
-0,54
-0,30
-0,16
-0,09
-0,03
-0,09 -0,08 -0,08 -0,09 -0,09
-0,06 -0,07
0,01
0,03
0,11
0,04 0,03
-0,02 -0,03
0,00
0,04 0,04
0,06
0,04
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov,22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23
Number of workers Number of workers exp.
0,35
0,05 0,06
0,01 0,00
-0,09
-0,20 -0,20 -0,18
-0,16
-0,19
-0,23
-0,01
-0,22
-0,14
-0,03
0,02
-0,17
-0,25
-0,28
-0,26
-0,23
-0,26 -0,26
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23
Workers on forced leave Workers on forced leave exp.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

28. Volatility in the labor market
Problems with finding workers
After the last month’s drop, the enterprises again
report increased problems with hiring staff
(both skilled and unskilled). But it is happened
due to different reasons:
• Skilled workers: due to an increased of % of
those who reported that it is more difficult to
find skilled workers (from 19.9% to 26.9% )
• Unskilled workers: due to decreased % of
those who report that it is easy to find (from
4.9% to )s 7.0%)
28
0,24
0,18
0,06
0,09
0,17
0,11
0,12
0,19
0,26
0,14
0,25
-0,01
-0,06
-0,07 -0,07
0,09
0,02
0,05
0,06
0,14
0,06
0,11
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23
Skilled workers Unskilled workers
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

29. Problems of finding skilled workers by size
29
Volatility in the labor
market: skilled workers
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
Micro (<=10)
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
Small (11-50)
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
Medium (51-250)
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
Large (>=251)
• large companies face more problems
• regional disproportion
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

30. Export
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023) 30

31. Export: some businesses are still unable to resume export activities
64% of respondents were exporters before the war or
started exporting during the war
• 16% of exporters did not export in the last 12 months, but
exported before the war (13 in March)
• Micro-business still face more challenges - 42% of micro-
enterprises have not exported in the last 12 months
• Exporters-manufacturers of construction materials and
metallurgical enterprises suffered the most, and light
industry was the least suffered
31
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

32. Assessments of
government’s
policy
32
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

33. Positive assessments of economic policy transform to neutral
33
• In April 2023, positive assessments of government policy on business support lowered for the second month in a
row, while the % of negative assessments did not change
• As before, business mostly neutrally assess the government policy on business support: 61% of the respondents
• The share of the undecided respondents increased from 12% in March 2023 to 14% in April
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

34. New monthly enterprise survey. Methodology
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and
Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current
economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key
economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one. Respondents will regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity
indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators: output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We
will also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months.
The special part of the Monthly survey provides information on specific topics. A special part examines the enterprises' problems, the war's impact on
production volumes, export activity, basic business needs, and the assessment of government policy.
This survey uses a panel sample that includes 500+ enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk,
Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy,
Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.
The field stage of the 12-th wave lasted from April 17 to April 30, 2023. The enterprise managers compared the work results in April 2023 with March 2023,
assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (April 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In
certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
34
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #12, (04/2023)

35. Our contacts
35
website: www.ier.com.ua
e-mail: rubanik@ier.kyiv.ua
kuziakiv@ier.kyiv.ua
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/IER.Kyiv/
Twitter (in English only): https://twitter.com/IER_Kyiv