1.
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
EU Agriculture & the net-zero
challenge
What pathways towards a low-carbon and resilient EU agriculture
sector in 2050
Ben Allen & Anna Lórant
Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP)
UNFCCC COP23 – Bonn, 10 November 2017

2.
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
Agriculture’s contribution to EU GHG emissions
(excluding LULUCF)
29.3%
Energy supply
19.2%
Transport19.0%
Industry
11.5%
Residential &
commercial
11.3%
Agriculture
Others • Large MS Variation
• FR, DE, UK ~44%
• Contribution likely
to become more
significant over
time

3.
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
Agricultural GHG emissions (CO2/non-CO2)
42.9%
Enteric
fermentation
15.4%
Manure
38.0%
Soils

4.
The rationale for action on agriculture
• Agriculture is a major source of GHG
emissions
• EU emissions from agriculture are
now increasing, both in absolute and
relative terms
• EU agriculture production sector has a
large land use impact outside its
boarders

5.
‘net-zero emissions will be required from all
sectors at some point around 2050’
COP21 Paris Climate Agreement

6.
What makes agriculture special?
• Potential to compensate for emissions
through carbon sequestration and
storage
• Mitigation actions can deliver co-
benefits: economic, environmental &
social
• Agriculture also has a role in
– ensuring EU food and nutrition security,
– Incomes and territorial developments,
– & the social & environmental benefits
delivered by the sector

7.
‘Future climate action in the agriculture
sector relies on the choices of 12 million
farmers ’

8.
Actions to reduce emissions
• Efficiency gains: reduce GHG emissions
per unit of production
• Reduced output: reduced GHG emissions
in absolute terms.
• Increased removals: e.g. through land
use change or building carbon in soils
Benefits and risks
• Emissions reduced and allows production
gains but risks a rebound effect, e.g. rise in
consumption due availability.
• Overall emissions reduced but risks
leakage to 3rd countries due to demand
• Potential income stream and adaptation
co-benefits. Potential leakage effect, might
not reduce actual emissions from
production
All within the agriculture sector

9.
‘reaching net-zero emissions will require a
combination of approaches: increased
efficiency, greater removals, & reduced
production of high GHG-intensity products’

10.
Drivers of change
• changing environmental and climatic
conditions to which farming systems
need to adapt;
• technological advancements to
address challenges in the sector;
• Markets that influence production and
trade;
• policy drivers that help shape the
decisions made by Member States and
farmers.

11.
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
Consumption
Meat consumption and
production is a major source of
GHGs;
Reducing food waste is essential
Environment
Drives adaptation, not
mitigation;
Impacts crops more than
livestock
Technology
Better application of existing
techniques is as important as
new developments;
Public perception is key
Technology
Climate mitigation tech is still
rare in agriculture;
Rebound effect is a risk of
efficiency gains
Markets
EU markets are complex and
part of global commodity trade;
Long supply chains limit
reinvestment in the sector
Policy
Targets work;
External policies have significant
influence;
Climate tends to be secondary
focus of current CAP measures

12.
Reaching net-zero emissions in the EU,
whilst avoiding external impacts, is likely to
require a more systematic change in the
way we produce and consume food.

13.
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
Thank you
For more information about IEEP’s work on climate and agriculture or the NZ2050 project,
please contact:
ballen@ieep.eu
+44(0)7421767684
@ecoboy79