The role of PtXin meeting the 2 and well below 2 °C mitigation targets

1. The role of PtX in
meeting the 2 and well
below 2 °C mitigation
targets
1VTT 2018
Tiina Koljonen and Antti Lehtilä
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd.
Regular IEA ETSAP workshop
18th June 2018, Gothenburg

2. 2VTT 2018
1. Integrated bioeconomy and low carbon economy scenarios until 2050 for Finland
• Starting point: Forest covers a greater share of land in Finland than in any other European
country
• How to best utilize Finland’s biomass resources to increase sustainable growth of the Finnish
economy and reduce GHG emissions 80-95 % by 2050 (compared with 1990 levels)?
→ The role of PtG and PtL in Finland to by 2050
2. Global pathways to post-fossil economy in a well below 2 degrees C world
• Starting point: how to phase-out fossil fuels by 2100 and reach the 1.5 °C mitigation targets?
→ The role of PtG, PtL and PtX (e.g. hydrocarbon chemicals and other materials)
→ The role of DAC (direct air capture) to reach the 1.5 °C
Two case studies

3. 3VTT 2018
1. Finnish case study
• Processes, where hydrogen is produced via electrolysis
• Hydrogen is used directly for energy of synthesized further to gaseous and liquid fuels by FT
synthesis. Carbon is captured from prcess gases or other sources (e.g. CCU but no DAC)
• In addition, hydrogen boosted FT-diesel from biomass is included
2. Global case study
• All the above processes, but DAC included as an mitigation option in addition to CCU
• Secondly, synthesis of chemicals and other materials, which are currently produced from fossil fuels
are modelled (e.g. PtX with DAC and/or CCU)
What do we mean with PtX?

4. 4VTT 2018
Finnish government’s targets and spearhead programmes:
Cost efficient transformation to carbon free, clean and renewable energy
Share of renewable energy over 50 % and energy self sufficiency over 50 % by 2030.
Wood resources in use and new products from forests
Diversify use of wood and increase value added.
Make Finnish food production feasible and increase trade balance
Promote domestic use and export of Finnish food products.
Brake through of circular economy
Increase recovery of nutrients by processing 50% of manure.
Growth by integrating bioeconomy and low-carbon economy

5. 5VTT 2018
Baseline
Business as usual in structure of economy, industry
etc. Includes 2030 energy and climate targets.
Low carbon scenario (CNS)
Optimal GHG emission reduction pathway for
Finland. No significant structural changes in industry,
but optimistic new energy technology adaptation
pathway.
Bio economy scenario (BioEco)
New bioeconomy products from forest and
agriculture and optimal use of side streams and
residues. No fossil-CCS, strict sustainability criteria
for the use of biomass.
Two alternative scenarios to reach low carbon targets by 2050

6. 6VTT 2018
New forest sector products can double the value added of
forest sector
Textiles and hygiene
Resins, chemicals
Value added pulp
and paper
products
Plasticizers
Replacing plastics

7. 7VTT 2018
Versatile renewable energy in Finland
Bioenergy transition Renewable energy transition

8. 8VTT 2018
Share of electricity use to PtX starts to grow rapidly after 2040
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4DS 2°C-CNS 2°C-BioEco
Electricityuse(FIN),TWh
Other
use
Power-
to-X

9. 9VTT 2018
Investments to P2X show the similar trend
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4DS 2°C-CNS 2°C-BioEcoP2XInvestments(FIN),GEUR
Mainly hydrogen boosted FT diesel

10. 10VTT 2018
Pathways to Post-fossil Economy in a Well Below 2°C World
Lehtilä, A. & Koljonen, T. In: Lect.Notes Energy, Vol. 64, George Giannakidis et al. (Eds):
Limiting Global Warming to Well Below 2°C: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development

11. 11VTT 2018
Both LCE and PFE scenarios find a solution for 1.5 °C target
GHG
CO2
-30
-20
-10
0
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80
2010
2020
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Baseline 1.5C-LCE 1.5C-PFE
GHGemissions,GtCO2eq.
FGS
N2O
CH4
CO2
DAC
CCU
FECCS
BECCS
Forestry

12. 12VTT 2018
In 1.5C-PFE solar becomes a dominant energy source
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200
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600
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1000
1200
1400
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Primaryenergy,EJ(PFE)
Other
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Waste
Bio
Gas
Oil
Coal

13. 13VTT 2018
With PtX the 1.5 °C mitigation target could be achieved with
reasonable costs
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
GHGprice,€(2015)/tonne(CO2eq.) € 450/t
€ 400/t
€ 350/t
€ 300/t
€ 250/t
€ 200/t
1.5C-LCE
1.5C-PFE

14. 14VTT 2018
Also globally PtX seems to become important after 2050
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4DS 1.5C-LCE 1.5C-PFE
Globalelectricityuse,PWh
Other
use
Power-
to-X

15. 15VTT 2018
… and the same happens for the PtX investments
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4DS 1.5C-LCE 1.5C-PFE
P2XInvestments,TEUR

16. 16VTT 2018
PtX offers an important pathway for increasing the RES shares of all the energy
sectors, especially when fossil CCS and/or bioenergy are constrained
Seasonal storage of RES with PtX would become essential with high RES shares
Transformation to a post-fossil economy is extremely complicated
A lot of work is required for more detailed modelling of power to chemicals and other
materials
It is possible that supply of certain metals and minerals would constrain the
development of post-fossil economy
Model and database development is underway – first results/case-studies will be ready by
the end of this year
Other PtX options, like food, and assessments of other sustainability dimensions
need to be considered
Water and other natural resources, land, acceptability, etc.
Conclusions and next steps

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Additional information: tiina.koljonen@vtt.fi