Role of power to heat in the energy system of Europe – A first analysis

1. Role of power to heat in
the energy system of
Europe –
A first analysis
ETSAP Workshop
Gothenburg
17th June 2018
Markus Blesl

2. Energy- and Climate Policies
Modeling in TIMES
 Scenario definition an Analysis
 Some conclusions
26.06.2018 2
Outline

3. • For energy conversion units covered by the ETS (Emission Trading System), a binding
reduction of emissions by a total of 21% in relation to 2005 according to EU Directive
2009/29/EC. For the phase 3 of the EU ETS (2013-2020) a linear reduction factor of
1.74% of allowances, compared to 2008-2012 average is given.
• In March 2011, the European Commission made a proposal for a reduction of 80-95%
of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 by 2050 in its "Roadmap for the
transition to a competitive low-carbon economy by 2050"
• In October 2014, the Commission adopted the Climate and Energy Package with the
objectives for the year 2030. The targets are 40% greenhouse gas reduction, 27%
renewable energy share and the reduction of primary energy consumption by 27%.
Energy and climate policy objectives in the EU-28

4. exchange
centralised structures
distributed structures
bulk storageconv. power stations
distributed storage
new construction
transmission grid
distribution gridsmall conv. power
stations
+ biomass
bulk storage
consumer
demand side managemt
flexible operation
compressed-air storage
electric storage
power-to-gas
thermal storage
(power-to-heat)
hydraulic storagegrid expansion
flexible operation
grid expansion
gas grid
heat
Non-dispatchable RES
(PV, wind onshore)
curtailment
wind offshore
curtailment
expansion of interconnection
hydraulic storage
demand response
chemical storage
generation grid & demand stoarges Power-to-X
4
Flexibility options in the electricity system
Power-to-heat

5. 5
Times PanEU Model
Energy System Model I/II
Characterization TIMES PanEU
 European energy system model
EU28, Norway, Switzerland, Baden-Württemberg
 Technology-oriented, bottom-up optimization model
with perfect foresight
 Country-specific detailing of the energy generation and
the demand sector, as well as detailed mapping of the
boundary coupling line capacities according to ETSO
 Intertemporal optimization in the
period 2010 – 2050
 12 sub-annual time segments
(four seasonal and three daily segments)
 Emissions: Greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O)
 Sector-based: public and industrial energy supply,
industry, households, Commercial and tertiary sector,
transport, agriculture and refineries
 Objective function: minimization of the total costs
(optimization model)

6. 12.01.2017IER Universität Stuttgart 6
Energy System Model II/II
Times PanEU Model
Cost and emissions balance
GDP
Process energy
Heating area
Population
Light
Communication
Power
Person kilometers
Freight kilometers
Demand services
Coal processing
Refineries
Power plants and
Heating plants
Electric grid
and District
heat networks
Gas network
Industry
Commercial and
tertiary sector
Households
Transportation
Final energyPrimary energy
Domestic
sources
Imports
Demands
Energyprices,Resourceavailability
Energy Crops
(domestic&imports)
Hydroelectric power
and photovoltaics
Agriculture
Heat
Cooling
Heat
Cooling
Heat
Cooling

7. 26.06.2018 7
Scenario definition
Over all assumptions; Energy prices form the WEO 2017; population and GDP
projection from the EU
ETS -1.7 %/a reduction of the CO2 – Emissions for the Emission trading system
-80 % -80% GHG reduction till 2050 compared to 1990 over all sectors

8. 26.06.2018 8
Electricity generation in the EU28 a scenario comparison
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2010
2015
ETS
-80%
ETS
-80%
ETS
-80%
ETS
-80%
2020 2030 2040 2050
Netelectricity[TWh]
Electricity storage (excl.
pump storage)
Net Imports
Others / Waste non-ren.
Other Renewables
Biomass / Waste ren.
Solar
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Hydro (incl. pump storage)
Nuclear
Gas CCS
Gas w/o CCS
Oil
Lignite CCS
Lignite w/o CCS
Coal CCS
Coal w/o CCS

9. 26.06.2018 9
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2010
2015
ETS
-80%
ETS
-80%
ETS
-80%
ETS
-80%
2020 2030 2040 2050
Totalfinalenergyconsumption[PJ]
Others (Methanol,
Hydrogen)
Waste
Renewables
Heat
Electricity
Gas
Petroleum
products
Coal
Final energy consumption in the EU28 a scenario comparison

10. 26.06.2018 10
Final energy consumption electricity for heat a scenario comparison
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2010
2012
2015
ETS
-80%
ETS
-80%
ETS
-80%
ETS
-80%
2020 2030 2040 2050
Finalenergyconsumptionelectricityforheatin[PJ]
Comercial Cooling
Comercial Hot Water
Comercial Space heating
Residential Cooling
Residential Hot Water
Residential Space
heating
Industry

11. 26.06.2018 11
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2010
2012
2015
ETS
-80%
ETS
-80%
ETS
-80%
ETS
-80%
2020 2030 2040 2050
Districtheatgenerationin[PJ]
Boiler Solarthermal
Boiler Electricity
Boiler others
CHP Geothermal
CHP Others
CHP Biogas
Boiler Biomas
CHP Biomas
Boiler gas
CHP gas
CHP oil
CHP lignite
CHP coal
District heat generation in the EU28 a scenario comparison

12. 26.06.2018 12
Heat generation by heat pumps in the EU28 a scenario comparison
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
20102015 ETS -80% ETS -80% ETS -80% ETS -80%
2020 2030 2040 2050
HeatProductionin[PJ]
Industry
Chemical
Industry
Food
Industry
Other
Industry
Paper
Buildings
Residential
Buildings
Commercial
District
heating

13. • Power-to-heat especially with heat pumps makes a contribution to manage the negative
residual load, to improve the efficiency of the whole energy system and to integrate a
higher share of renewables in the energy system.
• The proposed solutions for the energy transition depends on the integrated technologies in
the energy system but also on the availability of the infrastructur.
• The decarbonisation of the whole energy systems needs a new thinking – a combination
between resource/energy efficiency and a digital world
26.06.2018 13
Some Conclusion and Outlook

14. E-Mail
Telefon +49 (0) 711 685-
Universität Stuttgart
Energiewirtschaft und Systemtechnische Analyse (SAM)
PD Dr.-Ing. Markus Blesl
87 865
Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER)
Markus.Blesl@ier.uni-stuttgart.de
Thank you for your attention !