Planning a reliable power system with a high share of renewables in France by 2050: a new multi-scale, multi-criteria framework Mr. Yacine Alimou, Mines ParisTech

1. Planning a reliable power system with a
high share of renewables in France by
2050: a new multi-scale, multi-criteria
framework
Yacine ALIMOU, Nadia MAÏZI
MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University,
ETSAP Semi-annual workshop
18 Jun 2021, Virtual

2. Motivation An Integrated framework Closing remarks
Key building blocks of reliability
(Source: Asami Miketa (IRENA))
I Adequacy: the availability of adequate generation capacity to meet demand at all times.
I Security: the capability of the power system, using existing resources, to maintain reliable
supplies in the face of unexpected shocks and sudden disruptions.
Yacine ALIMOU IEA-ETSAP, 2021 2 / 15

3. Motivation An Integrated framework Closing remarks
Long-term energy system planning: TIMES-FR
I A TIMES model for the French power sector.
I 60% RES uptake (2050) in power generation is selected as a case study.
Yacine ALIMOU IEA-ETSAP, 2021 3 / 15

4. Motivation An Integrated framework Closing remarks
An endogenous stability indicator within TIMES framework
I Total stored kinetic energy
I Kinetic indicator
Hkin =
Ecin,tot
max(S, Ppeak − S) − Qstg
I Apparent power supplied by generators just before the disturbance reduced by the dynamic
storage compensation.
Hkin ≥ min
primary
Hkin = 30s
I Hkin represents the duration during which the stock of kinetic energy runs out completely to
help recover the steady state conditions if all power generation is suddenly disconnected, or,
conversely, if final consumption rushes to its peak value.
I The bigger the indicator, the easier it is for the system to maintain the balance after a
perturbation. To ensure a continuum with the primary regulation which typically operates
within 15-30 seconds, it is mandatory to force Hkin to be greater than a certain value
Hcritical = 30s
Yacine ALIMOU IEA-ETSAP, 2021 4 / 15

5. Motivation An Integrated framework Closing remarks
The LOLE: an exogenous generation adequacy metric
I ANTARES use a reference framework for climatic variables including 200 scenarios scenarios
(RTE & Météo France).
I LOLE = 1
|MCyear |
P
MCyear
LOLD
Yacine ALIMOU IEA-ETSAP, 2021 5 / 15

6. Motivation An Integrated framework Closing remarks
Long-term planning and near-term adequacy: linking
0
50
100
150
200
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
[GW]
Exports
Imports
Solar
Wind
Ocean
Geothermal
Biomass
Hydro
Industrial Gas
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
A change in the analysis year
I (Alimou et al. 2020) Assessing the security of electricity supply through multi-scale
modeling: The TIMES-ANTARES linking approach. Applied Energy,
2020.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115717
I A change in the analysis year: 2030 to 2050
Yacine ALIMOU IEA-ETSAP, 2021 6 / 15

7. Motivation An Integrated framework Closing remarks
Power generation mix results
2030, feed-back loop
0
50
100
150
Base year Iteration0 Iteration1 Iteration2 Iteration3 Iteration3.1 Iteration3.2 Iteration3.3
[GW]
Solar
Storage
Demand.Response
Wind
Ocean
Hydro
Biomass
Industrial Gas
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
2050, feed-back loop
0
50
100
150
200
Base year:2013 Iteration0 Iteration1 Iteration2
[GW]
Solar
Storage
Demand.Response
Wind
Ocean
Hydro
Biomass
Industrial Gas
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
I 7 iterations to ensure 2030 generation adequacy (drop from 80 h/year to 3h/year LOLE) vs
ONLY 2 iterations to ensure 2050 generation adequacy (end-of-horizon effect).
Yacine ALIMOU IEA-ETSAP, 2021 7 / 15

8. Motivation An Integrated framework Closing remarks
Hourly production stack comparison
2030 and 2050, ANTARES production stack
2030 2050
0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100
0
25
50
75
Duration[%]
[GW]
Biomass
Coal
Hydro
Natural Gas
Nuclear
PSP.in
PSP.out
Storage.in
Storage.out Shortage LDC RLDC
I The production stack (based on the RLDC representation) reveals major challenges to
integrate more variable renewables into the power system (from 40% to 60%).
Yacine ALIMOU IEA-ETSAP, 2021 8 / 15

9. Motivation An Integrated framework Closing remarks
Does adequacy compliance imply stability compliance: No
2030, Hkin estimation over the feed-back loop
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0
10
20
30
Iter0 Iter1 Iter2 Iter3 Iter3.1 Iter3.2 Iter3.3
[s]
● ●
Kinetic indicator (mean) Max−Min
Limite minimum 30 [s]
I While feedback loop iterations drastically perform the generation-adequacy criterion (i.e.
LOLE), the inertia stability remains under the security level.
Yacine ALIMOU IEA-ETSAP, 2021 9 / 15

10. Motivation An Integrated framework Closing remarks
2013-2050 inertia stability
Without Hkin constraint
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
0
20
40
60
80
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
[s]
● ●
Kinetic indicator (mean) Max−Min
With Hkin constraint
●
●
●
● ● ● ● ● ●
0
20
40
60
80
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
[s]
● ●
Kinetic indicator (mean) Max−Min
I Without the incorporation of the inertia stability constraint, the planned French power
system risks lower inertia from 2025 onwards.
Yacine ALIMOU IEA-ETSAP, 2021 10 / 15

11. Motivation An Integrated framework Closing remarks
The need of additional investments
2050, Additional capacity to ensure adequacy
11.876
3.439
1.494
0.398
0.381
−2.127
−4.959
10.502
0
5
10
15
20
Natural Gas Wind Nuclear Oil Biomass Coal Solar Total
[GW]
2050, Additional capacity to ensure both
adequacy and stability
11.967
5.003
3.182
0.994
0.29
−0.315
−1.687
19.434
0
5
10
15
20
25
Natural Gas Solar Storage Oil Nuclear Coal Biomass Total
[GW]
I 10 GW are needed to ensure 2050 generation adequacy, but 20 GW are needed to ensure
both generation adequacy and stability.
Yacine ALIMOU IEA-ETSAP, 2021 11 / 15

12. Motivation An Integrated framework Closing remarks
Concluding thoughts
Technological point of view
No single technology is a solution to a secure power system: a host of technologies will be needed
to achieve the reliability requirements while decarbonizing the power system.
I Generation adequacy : Natural gas and solar accompanied by storage are cost-effective
drivers.
I Inertia stability: Biomass and nuclear energy are the most cost-effective drivers of inertia
stability
System security components
Generation adequacy and inertia stability are two independent variables of the security of supply.
Hence...
A new integrated framework
1. Provide a significantly improved understanding of resource adequacy and inertia stability
risk in the long term;
2. Help determine more cost-effective solutions that consider the tradeoff between economic
pathways and physical reliability standards;
3. Guarantee the consistency of the trajectories decided by long-term energy-planning models,
especially when they serve to provide guidance to policy makers and stakeholders.
Yacine ALIMOU IEA-ETSAP, 2021 12 / 15

13. Motivation An Integrated framework Closing remarks
Thank You
Yacine ALIMOU IEA-ETSAP, 2021 13 / 15

14. Annex: dispatch schedule (measuring point)
2030, seen by ANTARES, median scenario
0
25
50
75
100
0 25 50 75 100
Duration[%]
[GW]
LDC RLDC Biomass Coal Hydro Natural Gas Nuclear
2030, seen by TIMES
0
25
50
75
100
0 25 50 75 100
Duration[%]
[GW]
Biomass
Coal
Demand Response
Hydro
Natural Gas
Nuclear
LDC RLDC
I TIMES over estimate the Residual Load Duration Curve (RLDC).
Yacine ALIMOU IEA-ETSAP, 2021 14 / 15

15. Annex: Adequacy assessment
Shortage hours at the RLDC
0
25
50
75
100
0 25 50 75 100
Duration[%]
[GW]
Shortage LDC RLDC Biomass Coal Hydro Natural Gas Nuclear
The RLDC peak (zoom)
0
25
50
75
100
0 1 2 3
Duration[%]
[GW]
Shortage LDC RLDC Biomass Coal Hydro Natural Gas Nuclear
I Shortage hours occur at the peak of net demand, but also
I Shortage hours occur at the peak of residual load = low VRE power output
Yacine ALIMOU IEA-ETSAP, 2021 15 / 15