Grid Features in the TIMES-based Japan Model

1. Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Grid Features in the TIMES-
based Japan Model
Hiroshi Hamasaki
Research Fellow
Economic Research Centre
Fujitsu Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan
Amit Kanudia
Partner
KanORS-EMR, Noida, India
72nd
Semi-Annual ETSAP Workshop, Zurich, Switzerland

2. Contents
I. Motivations
 Quick introduction on original TIMES-based Japan model
• Japan Multi-regional Transmission (JMRT) Model
 Why are grid-features necessary?
II. Grid Features in JMRT
III. Simulations: VRE Share and Grid Infrastructure
IV. Conclusion
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3. I. INTRODUCTION
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4. Overview of JMRT
3
H2
Automobile
FCV
Fuel Cell
Hydrogen Station
Energy
Storage
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Refinery, Steel etc.
Brown Coal
Renewables
Renewables
Sewage
Thermal
/Nuclear
Oil Field Refinery Petrol
Station

5. Prefecture Level Resolution (47 Prefectures)
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• Detailed energy system by prefecture
• Reflects regional characteristics
Coal
LNG
Oil
Sankey

6. REs Potential
Potential of Renewables
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Offshore Wind
Onshore Wind
Geothermal
Source: FRI, based on MoE Renewable
Potential Map
Ely GridRoad
• 1km2
mesh of renewable potential
data
• Each mesh point has unique data
including investment, availability
factor.
• Reflects existing infrastructure,
electricity grid and roads.

7. Potential of Renewables
(Geographic Information System)
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No. Prefecture Lat. Long.
Wind
speed
1
2
3
Geothermal
Offshore Wind
Onshore Wind
GIS Data is from MOE Potential Survey
Enormous onshore wind
potential
Large center of
electricity consumption
1 km
mesh

8. Reflecting Regionality (Using GIS)
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Onshore Wind
Offshore Wind
Road
Electricity Grid

9. Effect of Regionality on Renewables
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Wind Speed
Availability Factor
Wind Speed
(m/s)
AF
(%)
5.5 15.8%
6 19.7%
6.5 23.5%
7 27.3%
7.5 31.0%
8 34.5%
8.5 37.9%
Road
Construction
Sea Depth
Grid Construction
Capital
More than 20,000V
http://www.gsi.go.jp/KIDS/
map-sign-tizukigou-h07-
02-01soudensen.htm

10. Grid Connections
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Hz
Hz

11. 世帯数
（●＝100世帯）
But…
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Onshore Wind
Potential
Switching
Station
e.g. Grid Capacity =0.5GW
Original JMRT assumes no grid
infra development/expansion
within grid region is necessary to
transmit electricity within
electricity grid region.

12. II. GRID FEATURES IN JMRT
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13. Nodes and Grid Capacity
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47
Prefectures
351
Nodes

14. Allocation of Electricity Demand to Node
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: Node

15. Allocation of REs Potential to Node
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: Node
Renewables are assumed to connect
to the nearest node.

16. III. SIMULATIONS: VRE SHARE
AND GRID INFRASTRUCTURE
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17. Scenarios
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Share of VRE in
2050 (%)
25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Grid Expansion Y N

18. Wind Capacity, VRE 55%, 2050
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(GW)
GE Scenario No GE Scenario
25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N
25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N

19. Wind Capacity, VRE 55%, 2050
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25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N

20. Wind Capacity, VRE 55%, 2050
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25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N

21. Wind Capacity, VRE 55%, 2050
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25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N
Offshore Wind
Onshore Wind

22. Grid Connections Expansion (VRE: 55%)
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25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N

23. Additional Grid Capacity in Grid Region
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25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N
GW

24. In the case of Hokkaido…
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25. Marginal Electricity Price in 2050
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JPY/kWh
GE Scenario No GE Scenario
25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N
25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N
*Spring Daytime
Tokyo
NagoyaOsaka
Kyoto
Kobe

26. Share of REs and Marginal Cost
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25% 40% 55%
JPY/kWh
*Spring Daytime
*Year 2050

27. IV. Conclusions
 351 nodes grid model works on PC.
 r3.xlarge on AWS
 Node level resolution of model reflects reality which is
geological distribution of energy consumption and renewable
energy potential and identify the burden of grid infrastructure
under high VRE share.
 Under the current electricity grid infrastructure, high VRE share
widen marginal electricity price between nodes.
 High electricity price in three major economic regions, Tokyo, Osaka and
Nagoya.
 In Tokyo area, offshore-wind will be introduced to meet VRE share
target.
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28. One more thing…
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29. Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE

30. Allocation of Demand
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Prefecture
Small area category of
National Census, 2010
Node
Household Office Passenger
# of people
(Jinko)
# of People
(Jinko)
# of people
(Jinko)
GIS
Nat.
Census
29

31. Grid-Connections
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Hokkaido
Chubu
Tokyo
Tohoku
Hokuriku
Kyushu Shikoku
Chugoku Kansai