Mekong ARCC – Final Workshop – Agriculture Study A presentation from the International Centre for Environmental Management (ICEM) > Further information: www.icem.com.au This presentation for the Mekong ARCC project was given by ICEM’s personnel and consultants Olivier Joffre, Dang Kieu Nhan, Bun Chantrea and Jorma Koponen at the Final Workshop in Bangkok – held in March 2013. The presentation highlights the findings from the Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment on the agriculture sector in the Lower Mekong Basin. It presents changes in basin-wide crop suitability, changes in hot spot crop yields and provides a vulnerability assessment for key crops in hot spots. The land use suitability evaluation tool (LUSET) was used to evaluate the suitability of specific land units for a range of crops. For each location suitability is based on climatological characteristics such as rainfall, drought and temperature, and each crop has its special requirements which are affected positively or negatively by climate change. > Read more about Mekong ARCC on the ICEM website www.icem.com.au

1. Climate change
vulnerability
and adaptation
assessment for
agriculture
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Study
Bangkok 28 March 2013
ICEM – International Centre for
Environmental Management
Olivier Joffre
Dang Kieu Nhan
Bun Chantrea
Jorma Koponen
1a

2. Contents
1. Overview of the methodology
2. Baseline – Agriculture in the Lower Mekong Basin
3. Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability
Assessment
i. Changes in Basin-wide crop suitability
ii. Changes in Hot Spot Crop yields
iii. Vulnerability assessment for key crops in hot spots
4. Adaptation Options
2

3. Overview of the
methodology
3a

4. Agriculture Vulnerability Assessment process
EXPOSURE SENSITIVTYX = IMPACT ADAPTIVE
CAPACITY/ VULNERABILITY
=
4
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS BASELINE
Key Crop
Species
Farming systems
characterization
MEKONG HYDROCLIMATE MODELLING & ASSESSMENT
Crop Yield
modelling
Crop suitability
modelling
Sector
assessment
Changes in climate
& hydrology
Expert
Consultation
Review of
Past
experience
ADAPTATION

5. 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Basin wide assessment approach
• Identified 8 hotspot provinces
representing each of the 12 ecozones
• Developed farming system profiles for
each ecozone
– Subsistence farming (small-scale)
– Commercial farming (small & large
scale)
• Identified key crops for subsistence &
commercial agriculture
– Rice
– Cassava
– Maize
– Rubber
– Coffee
– Sugarcane
– Soya
1. Chiang Rai
2. Sakon Nakhon
3. Khammoun
4. Champassak
5. Mondolkiri
6. Gia Lai
7. Kampong Thom
8. Kien Giang
5

6. Agriculture
Baseline
Assessment
6a

7. Agriculture in the LMB
- Livelihoods:
- 65 million people
- 45% of population are considered poor
- 70% of population’s livelihoods rely on
agriculture
- Changes in productivity of subsistence
and commercial cropping systems will
influence:
- Local livelihoods
- Rural and national economies
- Regional food security
7

8. Rapid growth in LMB agriculture
• Agriculture is a dynamic sector.
• The production of the major crops has doubled in the last 20
years, primarily due to:
• intensification of production, with higher yields rather
than larger cultivated areas.
• Some new areas for cultivation are opening in Lao PDR,
the Vietnamese Central Highlands and Cambodia
8

9. Agriculture in the LMB remains reliant on rainfall
• Key staple crops are predominately rain-fed,
• Other emerging commercial crops (maize, soya or cassava) are also mostly
rain-fed.
• LMB agriculture is highly sensitive on climate and especially on rainfall
frequency and distribution.
9
Source: MRC 2011

10. Farming systems in the LMB
1. Rice-based farming systems
• Rainfed rice (75% of total
agricultural area)
• Upland rainfed rice
• Lowland rainfed rice
• Irrigated rice
2. Other annual crops: vegetables,
maize, soya, cassava, sugarcane,
etc.
3. Perennial crops
1. Industrial crops: black pepper,
coffee, rubber, etc.
2. Fruits
Annual
Rice
Perennial
10

11. LMB Farming systems
11
Intensive Rice
Rubber
Coffee
Sugarcane
Soya
Rainfed rice
Cassava
Maize
Lowland rainfed &
irrigated rice
Subsistence Commercial
Smallholder Small-Large holder
Shifting Plantation
Trend
• Diverse growing conditions have led to the development of diverse farming
systems
• General historic trend towards larger farm holds and commercial farms

12. 12
Provinces Ecozones Rice Cassava Maize Soya Sugarcane Coffee Rubber
Chiang rai High-Mid-Low,
Floodplains
X X X X
Sakon Nakhon Mid & Low
elevation
X X X X
Khammouane High & Low
elevation
X X X X X
Champasak High-Low,
Floodplains
X X X X X
Mondulkiri Mid & Low
elevation
X X X X
Kampong
Thom
Low elevation,
Floodplains
X X X X
Gia Lai High & Low
elevation
X X X X X X
Kien Giang Delta swamp X
Key crop distribution in hot spot provinces

13. Baseline assessment – Summary findings
Crops Systems Locations Trends
(area)
Existing
problems
Growth drivers and
Impact
Upland rice Subsistence High-mid
elevation
Increase
(Lao PDR)
Drought
Flash Flood
• Population growth
• Urbanization (labour,
food demand, land
and water use)
• Market demands and
foreign investments
(animal feed, bio-
fuel, rubber, etc.)
• Nation food security
& export policies
• Natural resource
degradation and
environmental
changes
Lowland rice Subsistence –
Commercial
Mid &
Low
elevation
& delta
Decline
Rainfed
(Increase
irrigated)
Drought, flood,
salinity intrusion
Annual
commercial
crops
(Subsistence)
– Commercial
High-low
elevation
Changing with
crops and areas
Drought, soil
erosion, flood
Perennial
industrial
crops
Commercial High-mid
elevation
Increase Drought,
groundwater
depletion, soil
erosion
Fruits Commercial Delta Stable Flooding,
salinity intrusion

14. Basin wide Crop
suitability
assessment
14a

15. Climate suitability model
• LUSET – Land use suitability evaluation tool (IRRI)
• Evaluates the suitability of each land unit (grid cell) for a single
type of land use type (single crop).
• For each location suitability is based on climatological
characteristics such as rainfall, drought and temperature
• Each crop has its special requirements
• Suitability is expressed with a scale of 0 - 100 and transformed
into suitablity classes

16. Crop Tolerances
16
Crop parameter unit
Cassava annual rainfall mm/a
drought months
mean T C
mean daily max T C
annual rainfall mm/a
drought months
mean T C
mean daily max T C
av daily min T of the coldest month C
Maize growing cycle rainfall mm/cycle
first month rainfall mm/month
second month rainfall mm/month
third month rainfall mm/month
fourth month rainfall mm/month
fifth month rainfall mm/month
growing cycle T C
growing cycle mean daily min T C
rainfall in first months mm/month
rainfall in ripening stage mm/month
growing cycle T C
av daily max T of the warmest month C
second month T C
av daily min T of the coldest month C
Rubber annual rainfall mm/a
drought months
mean T C
mean daily max T C
Soya growing cycle rainfall mm/cycle
first month rainfall mm/month
second month rainfall mm/month
third month rainfall mm/month
fourth month rainfall mm/month
growing cycle T C
growing cycle mean daily min T C
Coffee
Robusta
Rain fed
rice

17. Rubber

18. Coffee

19. Cassava

20. Hotspot crop
yield
assessment
20a

21. Rain fed rice yield
• Increase in Eastern
Khorat Plateau
+ 5% – 20%
• Driver: increased
rainfall
Baseline Change in 2050

22. Average annual rainfed rice yields
in the selected provinces
Baseline
(t/ha)
% Change in
2050
Change in
production
(tons)
Chiang Rai 3.4 -4.8 - 30,000
Sakon Nakhon 2.1 4.6 + 27,000
Khammouane 3.4 -0.1 Not
significant
Champasack 2.9 -5.6 - 11,000
Gia Lai 3.3 -12.6 - 20,000
Mondulkiri 2.1 -3.0 -1,114
Kampong
Thom
2.2 -3.6 - 15,000

23. Average annual maize yields in the
selected provinces
Baseline
(t/ha)
Change
by 2050
(%)
Change in
production
(tons)
Chang Rai 4.22 -3.13 - 6,500
Khammouane 4.74 -5.03 <1,000
Champasack 5.08 -5.55 -2,000
Gia Lai 3.54 -12.09 - 24,000
Kampong
Thom
3.06 -5.97 <1,000

24. Vulnerability
assessment for
key crops
Hot Spots
24a

25. Key climate change threats
1.Increase in temperature
2.Increase in precipitation
3.Decrease in precipitation
4.Decrease in water availability
5.Increase in water availability
6.Droughts in the rainy season
7.Flooding
8.Flash flood
9.(CO2 fertilization)
25

26. Assessment criteria:
Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity
• Change in magnitude
of hydroclimate
parameters
• Change in frequency
and duration of the
change
Physiological crop
tolerances i.e.
comfort zones
Internal factors:
• biophysical factors (tolerant crops,
soil, water,…)
External factors:
• Farmer’s capacity – farming
technologies and accessibility to
services
• Support systems: extension
services, infrastructure, institution,
etc
26

27. CHAMPASSAK PROVINCE
CASE STUDY OVERVIEW
27

28. Current farming systems
28
0
30
60
90
Rainfed
rice
Irrigated
rice
Maize
Cassava
Soya
Coffee
Rubber
Area(103ha)
• Largest land holdings in Lao PDR
(2.1ha per HH) with rice as main crop
– >70% lowland rainfed rice cultivated
during the wet season
– <20%farmers cultivate both in dry and
wet season.
• Lowland rice supplemented with
additional rainfed crops for subsistence
(chilli, banana, sweet potato, beans
etc...)
• Small holder coffee is dominant in the
Bolovens plateau
• Cassava culture is booming, based on
smallholder and contract farming
• Rubber concessions cover large areas

29. Key climate change threats for Robusta coffee
Climate Change
Threats
Sensitivity
Increased
temperature
High temperature (> 32oC) in the dry season affects coffee growth and
production
Increased rainfall
Optimal water supply is 1750 mm/year, with high suitability ranging from
1600 to 2400 mm and a dry period for flower initiation in March-April
Decreased rainfall Decreased precipitation during dry season causes water stress.
Drought Long dry spells (> 20 days) can affect the production due to water stress
Flash floods
Flash floods (> 250 mm/day) in upland and/or upstream areas that creates
a sudden water level rise (rivers, stream) and carries debris, damaging
coffee plant/production.
Storms Coffee can suffer from strong winds flash flood generated by storms.
CO2 increase
Increase of CO2 might have an impact on growth and water use
efficiency
29

30. Projected changes in temperature 2050
30
Champassak Summary
Vulnerability Assessment
40% increase in
proportion of dry
season >32°C

31. Effects of increased temperature on coffee
Exposure: Very high
• 80% of days with Ave. Max. temp. > 32ºC in Jan – Nov,
• 20% of days with extreme max. temp > 36ºC in Jan – Oct.
Sensitivity: Medium
High dry season temperatures can increase evapotranspiration and increase water
stress
Impact: High
Reduced productivity
Adaptive Capacity: Medium
-Internal capacity: Medium
-External capacity: High; shade-management practice
Vulnerability Score: High
31
Threat: High temperature (> 32oC) in the dry season affects coffee
growth and production

32. Champassak - Summary of vulnerability for key crops
CC threat Irrigated
rice
Lowland
rainfed rice
maize Cassava Rubber coffee
Increased
temperature
High High Medium Medium Medium High
Increased
rainfall
Low Medium High High Low High
Decreased
rainfall
Medium Medium Low Medium
Droughts Low Low Low Medium Medium
Flooding Low Medium Medium Medium
Flash floods Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium
Storms Low High Medium High Medium High
CO2 increase Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium

33. Summary of VA for key crops: high vulnerability
Provinces Rainfed
rice
Irrigated rice Cassava Maize Soya Sugar-
cane
Coffee Rubber
Chiang Rai High
(temp)
Medium Medium High
(temp)
Sakon
Nakhon
High
(temp)
High
(rain, flood)
Medium High
(temp)
Kham-
mouane
High
(temp,
storm)
Medium High
(rain,
storm)
High
(rain,
storm)
High
(rain,
storm)
Medium
Cham
-pasak
High
(temp,
storm)
High
(temp)
High
(rain,
storm)
High
(rain)
High
(temp, rain,
storm)
Medium
Mondulkiri High
(Storm)
High
(storm)
High
(rain,
storm)
Medium
Kampong
Thom
High
(temp, flood)
High
(temp, flood)
High
(flood)
High
(lower
water,
temp, flood)
Medium
Gia Lai High
(temp)
High
(temp)
High
(flood, flash
flood)
High
(storm,
flash flood)
Medium High
(temp)
Medium
Kien Giang High
(SLR,
salinity)
Medium-High
(SLR,
salinity,temp)

34. Vulnerability
Assessment
Conclusions
34a

35. 35
• Both rainfed and irrigated rice are highly vulnerable
to:
• increased temperature in the wet season
• salinity intrusion (in the delta)
• Altitude shift for Robusta coffee, rubber and
cassava:
• Become more suitable in northern parts with an
increase in temperature
• Suffer from droughts and a decrease in water
availability in central parts
• Cassava, soya and maize: less suitable with an
increase in rainfall in the wet season and more
frequent storm.
• Annual rainfed crops, (specially soya) are more
vulnerable to increase rainfall during the harvest
period

36. 36
• Coffee is highly vulnerable to increased
temperature in the wet season
• Rubber and sugarcane are relatively robust
crops to changes in climatic parameters
• Effect of increased rainfall in the wet season
on rainfed rice:
• Negative impact in “wet” areas like
Champasak, Khammouane, Gia Lai.
• Positive impacts in a “dry” area like
Sakon Nakhon.

37. Adaptation
Options
37a
source:Proximity

38. Adaptation approach based on improving resilience
of farming system
38
Improve rainfed and
irrigated system and
reduce vulnerability
to hazard
Improve water
efficiency and water
management
techniques
Improve soil
management and soil
fertility in plains,
plateau and uplands
Agriculture technique
to mitigate GhG
Diversification of
cropping system
ADAPTATION
Strategies
Improve weather
forecast for farm
planning

39. Adaptation option for Rice Based Systems
• New varieties and risk management strategies
– Shorter varieties/ early maturation varieties to avoid the flood
or allow a double rice crop
– Tolerant varieties:
• “Scuba rice” (tolerant to flood)
• Varieties tolerant to drought for dry spell
• Varieties to tolerant to Heat and salinity (coastal zone)
Adoption by farmers in Cambodia: using multiple varieties to spread the risk.
• Diversification with cash crops :
Short term crop following the
monsoon crop based on residual
moisture 39

40. Adaptation option for Rice Based Systems
• “System of Rice Intensification”
– Based on principles of improved
management of your rice field
– Diversity or practices and gradual
adoption of the technical
packages
– Improved water, fertilizers and
labour uses and improved yield;
– Reduce the vulnerability to
climatic event (storm, drought)
– Reduce GhG in irrigated systems
40
source:Africare 2010

41. Access to Irrigation
• Groundwater/ Small scale water
storage
– Dry season crop (small dam in
Cambodia enabling double rice crop)
– Supplementary irrigation (mini ponds
in Bangladesh)
– Diversification with intensive
homestead gardening (Drip irrigation
in Cambodia, Myanmar)
41
source:UNDP 2011

42. Water Saving technology and Rain water Harvesting
• Reducing flooding rice field to
alternate flood/dry rice fields
• Green mulch technique +
clays to improve water
retention
• Rainwater Harvesting
– in tanks or ponds
– Multipurpose: supplementary
irrigation, double cropping,
horticulture (drip irrigation) or
domestic water uses
42
source:Proximity

43. Soil & fertility management
• Maximum yield is far from being reach
• Commercial mono-agriculture: destruction of
soil structure
• Potential options:
– “Urea Deep placement” for a better
efficiency of the fertilizer.
– SRI approach reduce the use of fertilizer
– Conservation agriculture improve soil
structure, increase organic matter in the
soil and promote nutrient availability for
the crop
43source:CIRAD
source: IFDC

44. A Climate Change resilient rural community
(adapted from IDe _Cambodia)
44
1. Dynamic
• Enhanced capacity to change
• Information access (about the change and solutions)
2. Diversified
• Within and outside the farming enterprise
3. Technically well skilled
• Access to advice and inputs
Provide the farming community with a variety of options that can be
employed depending on the climate conditions

45. Requires an In depth Analysis of Community
Vulnerability and needs before any intervention
• Design adaptation option(s) at
the community level
– Need to acknowledge the diversity
of agricultural practices and agro-
ecosystem at the community level
– Need to take into account the past
and current interventions
– In depth assessment of local
community farming system
vulnerabilities.
45